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How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

  • #41
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:04pm Apr 7, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting Nepul
thanks you very much kilian19, i'm really not able to make something like this. just a question are you sure with this ea, to open position only after a marubozu(no min or max) appear and so only on the next one?
No. When I created the EA no other posts where here yet. If I find enough time I might modify the ea to fit your new rules. But as you have seen there are occasions the EA lost 3 times in a row so there were 3 maruozu candles in a row.
  • #42
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:06am Apr 8, 2014 1:06am
Quoting Nepul
"What happens if the price is below the open by say 20 pips then reverses and returns to the open price? Normally you should get a up day. The lower wick is less than 42 pips in 80% of the cases (for E/U) so you get a slight statistical advantage." i understand what you are saying, you want to take advantage of your 80% that the wick is not more than 42, so you should sell/ buy when price open without make a max (for example) then when it go down for 20 pips you can buy taking advantage of your 80% probability and then risk 23 pips, and take profit...
The idea was to wait and see if the price goes 10-20pips below the open, then set a stop buy order at the open price with 40 pips SL. After this move the price MAY have formed its lower wick and therefore be an up day.
The issue is that it keeps being gambling. I just propose a way to count the cards in the deck, no more.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #43
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:12am Apr 8, 2014 3:12am
"But as you have seen there are occasions the EA lost 3 times in a row so there were 3 maruozu candles in a row."

Yes but this time we will enter only after a marubozu appear, in the next! and we dont need that it make 5 pips + 2 of spread so 7 point!...
we will wait price go against the formation of the marubozu for 4-5 pips(as in #post 32) and then we enter, so we need that candle make only 2 -3 pips of max or min..that is totally different.
We will take a lot of signal ,as i described before, from all the candles in a interval of 24 hours, not only tha classic daily chart.
i think it's really not easy to code something like it in a ea, but if you are able to do it , can be easy to backtest it...

look this chart i entered on 10 :00 (italy time) a.m 1h chart, because if you check the same candle(10:00 a.m) of yesterday it dididn't make the minimum, so if it fail this is the second marubozu formation, and i enter for my first position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: last.png Size: 30 KB
  • #44
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:22am Apr 8, 2014 4:22am
Have you seen the photo i posted before?
Well, i tell you i got 50 pips stop loss, but this is completely because i was totally idiot...
This is nothing more than other strategy or trading system, and if you are not disciplined and do not respect rules you will lose fast.
1 mistake) As you' ve seen the second marubozu was already not formed when i entered in the trade.
I sold when candle already done the minimum of 1,5 pip...so was really without sense.
2 mistake) i entered in the trade in the perfecet hour of the news....like a real idiot

This mistake are the same that an ea will make(about the news) but we just need of something like it to test the system, and then to trade manually..


By the way i started this demo account 1 month ago with 1000$ capital..
Before of this trade i was with 320$ in profit....now 270$ ...right was better before, but i think i can take again that money in really few time....
i lost 5 times in 80 trades, and at least 3 times for my fault..
it's not bad, but not enough
  • #45
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:04am Apr 8, 2014 5:04am
good day everyone!

i know that i ay find lost of expert traders here who can help me get a winning strategy...
I just joined a trading platform 2 months ago and have already lost 20,000 usd thinking that this can be a permanent source of income for me and my family..
i do not have any system to help me with trading ..i just go buy and trade hoping for luck for which i know is very stupid...
anyone please help me follow your trade so i can somehow gain the savings for my family that i have already lost...

sincerely
nina
  • #46
  • Apr 8, 2014 6:25am Apr 8, 2014 6:25am
Quoting Nepul
1 mistake) As you' ve seen the second marubozu was already not formed when i entered in the trade. I sold when candle already done the minimum of 1,5 pip...so was really without sense. 2 mistake) i entered in the trade in the perfecet hour of the news...
To me the mistake is that you went short whereas the monthly trend is UP. The weekly trend is UP. The daily trend is up. H4 closed above the five previous highs after a nice pullback. Your entry trick is quite good but it's not a system in itself.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #47
  • Apr 8, 2014 10:38am Apr 8, 2014 10:38am
Quoting ninasalalila
good day everyone! i know that i ay find lost of expert traders here who can help me get a winning strategy... I just joined a trading platform 2 months ago and have already lost 20,000 usd thinking that this can be a permanent source of income for me and my family.. i do not have any system to help me with trading ..i just go buy and trade hoping for luck for which i know is very stupid... anyone please help me follow your trade so i can somehow gain the savings for my family that i have already lost... sincerely nina

Hi Nina

Sorry for your loss. I can feel your urge to get back the money. I have come across a cool trader who is sharing his signals and his results are very good.

https://www.fxjunction.com/profile/johnpaul77/A/stats

Go through his statistics and make your own decisions to follow his trades.

Ps: I am not following his trades and have no links with him. I am just posting the link which may be of help to you.

usasa.
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #48
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:47pm Apr 8, 2014 4:47pm
Hi Nepul,

I wish you luck in your endeavor. Nothing is impossible but if I'm honesty what you are describing is trading nirvana.

I see so many traders on this site spending countless hours on developing a great trading system and very little to developing themselves. What ever happened to just sitting and watching how the market trades, how they react to news, the correlations to other markets. In other words, developing a "feel" for the markets a "intuition" an understanding of the fundamentals. It's all part of the day in and day process of trading, I hope you don't ignore these aspect of your trading education. Hoping to find a trading system that you can put on auto pilot and then sit back and start making millions just isn't realistic.
  • #49
  • Apr 8, 2014 11:00pm Apr 8, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting JacobFordFX
Hi Nepul, I wish you luck in your endeavor. Nothing is impossible but if I'm honesty what you are describing is trading nirvana. I see so many traders on this site spending countless hours on developing a great trading system and very little to developing themselves. What ever happened to just sitting and watching how the market trades, how they react to news, the correlations to other markets. In other words, developing a "feel" for the markets a "intuition" an understanding of the fundamentals. It's all part of the day in and day process of trading,...
Unfortunately JacobFordFx, what you are describing is gambling. We are speculators, no if's, no magical buts, no magical fundamental news releases, no nothing. As retail traders we do not know where price is going. Price is random walk to us little people. Please don't fall into this trap.

There is no mythical "feel" of the market. A basketball player develops a "feel" after shooting 100,000 shots. A baseball players develops a "feel" after pitching 100,000 balls. A retail trader, speculating on price never develops a "feel" as price is never certain.

We as retail traders try to exploit a reoccurring phenomenon to gain a few pips here and there. It's that simple.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #50
  • Apr 9, 2014 7:57am Apr 9, 2014 7:57am
Forexfury,

I think you and I have completely different trading experiences. I choose not to live in your "few pips here and there world", but if that works for you than that is great. That's what makes a market, difference in trading styles, doesn't mean one is better than the other. We can all still make money.
  • #51
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:22am Apr 9, 2014 10:22am
Quoting JacobFordFX
Forexfury, I think you and I have completely different trading experiences. I choose not to live in your "few pips here and there world", but if that works for you than that is great. That's what makes a market, difference in trading styles, doesn't mean one is better than the other. We can all still make money.
That's fair.

Apologies if I came off wrong. I'm very skeptical in nature. No offense meant.

Hunches, feels and getting to know the market don't exist in my world. Only thing I am sure of is price will go up or down at any given time and I want to be able to exploit that.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #52
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:40am Apr 9, 2014 10:40am
Hi Forexfury,

No offense taken at all. We can have a difference of opinion and still make money. I appreciate the comment and the give and take, it makes the trading world go 'round.

best of luck to you
  • #53
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:47am Apr 10, 2014 7:47am
Hi

I am very interested in this

can you post details of an actual trade with entry points and profits
  • #54
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:34am Apr 10, 2014 10:34am
hi deadhead,
in this week i'm very busy with my strategy that it's different from this one,
you can see my past trades from my previous picture i posted , by the way the system need to be backtested well...
for now it remains only an experiment, but if it's right it take very few time in a day to earn.
  • #55
  • Apr 10, 2014 11:56am Apr 10, 2014 11:56am
Hi Nepul

I am a professional FX trader with many tools at my disposal

I can't determine entry and exit points

just detail one good trade for me
  • #56
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:41pm Apr 10, 2014 1:41pm
I already wrote my strategy, read the previous posts...
We're tryng to take advantage against the marubozu candle forming.
We wait for one marubozu candle(that is very rarely it appears) , then enter in the next candle using the method i describe in the post #32' photo.
we want to take advantage because it's very rarely that a marubozu candle appears, but we enter on the second in this way we have the double of probabilty to not forming marubozu candle and so we take advantage.
So , in the end , i can say were'going against the 2-3 consecutives marubozu candle appearing.
If you are interested to this idea/experiment read all the thread, if you have any questions , tell me...

Nepul
  • #57
  • Edited 4:57pm Apr 10, 2014 4:06pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting hanover
What is the probability that two consecutive marubozus occur? If there’s no correlation between the candles, then the probability is n^2, if n is the probability of a single marubozu. Hence if n is small, you’d be justified in increasing the position size if yesterday’s candle was a marubozu.....
I just realized that there's an error in this statement that I made previously, or at least an error in the way that it could potentially be interpreted.

If the probability of a marubozu occurring is N, then the probability of the next two candles both being marubozus is N^2. Assuming the events are independent (candles are not correlated), that's correct.
But if a marubozu has just (already) occurred, then the probability of the next candle being a marubozu is N (in fact, it might even be >N, if price is in a strong trend — i.e. some correlation between the candles).

A good analogy is a coin toss:
The probability of tossing 2 consecutive heads is 50%^2, i.e. 25%
But if a head has just been tossed, the probability of the next toss being a head is still 50%.

To some folk that might seem paradoxical, but it's nonetheless true. I guess it's a kind of 'flip side' variant of the Monty Hall problem.
  • #58
  • Apr 10, 2014 6:24pm Apr 10, 2014 6:24pm
"A good analogy is a coin toss:
The probability of tossing 2 consecutive heads is 50%^2, i.e. 25%
But if a head has just been tossed, the probability of the next toss being a head is still 50%"

Chaosbun i want to mean , that "in the same chart" to see one marubozu candle or to see two consecutive marubozu candle have the same probability?
no for sure man...
Remember we are talking of the same chart ! Not 2 consecutives marubozu of my trades....
I guess that if we assume that it's rarely a marubozu candle appears, next( IN THE SAME CHART AND ONLY NEXT CANDLE ) candle has for sure still less probability to appears...
  • #59
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:51am Apr 11, 2014 12:51am
Quoting Nepul
"candle has for sure still less probability to appears...
hanover is correct though
  • #60
  • Apr 11, 2014 2:32am Apr 11, 2014 2:32am
Quoting Nepul
Chaosbun i want to mean , that "in the same chart" to see one marubozu candle or to see two consecutive marubozu candle have the same probability?

ops...i dont know why i called you Chaosbun , this is one of my friend.... sorry Hanover :=
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