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  • #3,741
  • Apr 7, 2014 3:28pm Apr 7, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Hickson
E/A is hard to predict for me. There should be some kind of retracement after the last heavy down move, but E/U is at resistance around 1,375x and A/U just gives a damn about a retracement. Looks like market consolidation for now.
agree retracement is overdue although especially non USD-pairs can take long moves without retraces.
For the long term directions I would argue long AUD and short EUR.
For scalping purpose it can of course go in any direction, but looking at long term view I'd rather short the EA upmoves.
Ideal level imo 1.5525 but I'm afraid we won't see that level for a long time, resisting around 1.5000 might be a good short level.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #3,742
  • Apr 7, 2014 5:10pm Apr 7, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} @ Jason Roger All timefremes show me 9648 one day later as a highest high. That is one more reason for me to don't to use FXCM data feed or FXCM as a trading desk.
Quoting Hickson
{quote} If you cannot even trade with FXCM, the question is which broker can be used. Alpari etc. not, that is for sure.
Hi Schickeria,

I'm happy to investigate this for you. In order to do so, I'll need more information. I sent you a PM last week requesting some details regarding the nature of your problem but did not hear back from you. These are the questions I asked: What chart time frame were you looking at? And what time of day? You mentioned this has happened more than once. Is it always on DAX? or has it occurred on other indices or currencies? And are you using Trading Station or MT4? Are you looking only at the charts or are you also looking at the Dealing Rates/Market Watch window as well?

I don't want to take this thread off topic, so please post your response to me in the FXCM discussion thread.

Thanks,
Jason
  • #3,743
  • Apr 8, 2014 12:49am Apr 8, 2014 12:49am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Good morning! Weekly prognosis hit with a 10 Pip difference as i have predicted.

did you take it?....

I missed it due to daily job yesterday :-7

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #3,744
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:12am Apr 8, 2014 1:12am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} did you take it?.... I missed it due to daily job yesterday :-7 {image}
Yes i got it @ 9721. I tryed to short @ 9647 and get stopped out - with payed trade setup.

As i can see your broker has a highest high 9736 . 9736 never been the highest high!!!!!!!

Quoting Schickeria
{quote} same here i'm only interested to buy EU below 1.3700. added some shorts on USDJPY (best level for shorting is 104.12) may be we don't reach this levels also short on AUDNZD DAX never touched 9647 for a short in extension 9721 as a short level
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Edit: a pop up to 9721.75 is possible for shorts
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  • #3,745
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:20am Apr 8, 2014 1:20am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Yes i got it @ 9721. I tryed to short @ 9647 and get stopped out - with payed trade setup. As i can see your broker has a highest high 9736 . 9736 never been the highest high!!!!!!! {quote} {quote} {image}

hmm true. Maybe it's up to the CFD contract?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #3,746
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:43am Apr 8, 2014 1:43am
Good morning.

Back from my little trip. Didn't miss too much, it seems...

Quoting Schickeria
Yes i got it @ 9721. I tryed to short @ 9647 and get stopped out - with payed trade setup. As i can see your broker has a highest high 9736 . 9736 never been the highest high!!!!!!!
I've got 9720.5 with my broker! The official chart says 9721.5. Interesting!

Quoting hadox
{quote} wouldn't mind a massive correction to be honest.. let's see where we close this week..
Maybe the start is made. The development of equity markets seems to suggest that fundamental analysis doesn't mean a thing.

Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} agree retracement is overdue although especially non USD-pairs can take long moves without retraces. For the long term directions I would argue long AUD and short EUR. For scalping purpose it can of course go in any direction, but looking at long term view I'd rather short the EA upmoves. Ideal level imo 1.5525 but I'm afraid we won't see that level for a long time, resisting around 1.5000 might be a good short level.
I agree, and do fear that 1.55 is out as well. I was too quick with my tp's.

I've now stacked quite a few po short up to 1.55, it's bound to bite me hard if this scenario doesn't play out. Now my biggest problem is to be patient and not to sell every mini-rally.

Quoting Hickson
{quote} No, I saw strong resistance today and took 23 Pips profit. Totally screwed up my own good GBP/JPY setup. Re entered via pending order, then it bounced hahahahhaha. Will see what happens to USD/JPY and GBP/USD tomorrow. AUD/JPY short started to move, but is at strong support now. Ken asked a question about this trade to expose my missing knowledge in public once again
You can't get broke taking a profit, as Magix once said. And everybody is missing something, and I do learn someting if others ask questions I didn't knew I had as well...

Closed my AN short from 1.0757 at 1.0752, kept the one from 1.0795 and placed a po at 1.0809, which would be the lmofu. Target still the buy zone at the lows.

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Fail better.
  • #3,747
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:49am Apr 8, 2014 1:49am
A/U next destination

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@ Larry, too bad you didn't keep E/A short from the top it has 1,000 pips potential
  • #3,748
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:54am Apr 8, 2014 1:54am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Good morning. Back from my little trip. Didn't miss too much, it seems... {quote} I've got 9720.5 with my broker! The official chart says 9721.5. Interesting! {quote} Maybe the start is made. The development of equity markets seems to suggest that fundamental analysis doesn't mean a thing. {quote} I agree, and do fear that 1.55 is out as well. I was too quick with my tp's. I've now stacked quite a few po short up to 1.55, it's bound to bite me hard if this scenario doesn't play out. Now my biggest problem is to be patient and not to sell...
you could be right, the reaction at R might give some good clues I guess - and we have FOMC tomorrow .. have some R at 957x don't know if we get there though.. do you have any interesting levels atm?
Patience is a virtue...
  • #3,749
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:15am Apr 8, 2014 2:15am
Quoting hadox
{quote} you could be right, the reaction at R might give some good clues I guess - and we have FOMC tomorrow .. have some R at 957x don't know if we get there though.. do you have any interesting levels atm?
As stated I atm doubt my borkers levels, so very cautious about this. And: I'm already short, underwater and could only add another one way above 10.000, so I won't trade it anytime soon. After this 'disclaimer': I've got 966x/9680 to consider.

A general question to all. I haven't read "Flash Boys", yet, but have been thinking: how high do you think is the probability that in the future all trading will be done by algorithms/machines? I mean, I am building my career on the assumption that I will be able to compete with the robots, and I don't want to go the way of Gary Kasparov or the T.rex (well, in my case a very small, half blind and unimposing dinosaur). My theory is that while what I do is probably easily replicable by a machine, trading will always be based on human interaction and the 'real' economy, and so, while the lower timeframes will be taken over by machines, the higher ones still need human interpretation, courage, vision. What is your take on it?
Fail better.
  • #3,750
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:17am Apr 8, 2014 2:17am
Quoting Ken A
A/U next destination {image} @ Larry, too bad you didn't keep E/A short from the top it has 1,000 pips potential
Yes. I see it, now. I was very proud, at the time, and now for the humiliation... On the other hand, with that potential one could still be short with a 500 pip stop and a 1:2 RR...
Fail better.
  • #3,751
  • Edited 2:42am Apr 8, 2014 2:25am | Edited 2:42am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Yes. I see it, now. I was very proud, at the time, and now for the humiliation... On the other hand, with that potential one could still be short with a 500 pip stop and a 1:2 RR...
I was obsessed with the daily pips long and short overall didn't miss much but a lot screen hours to trade the hourly chart

Yes, you could do with 500 pips stop but kinda late now. I shoulda at least keep one from 1.583x
  • #3,752
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:28am Apr 8, 2014 2:28am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} As stated I atm doubt my borkers levels, so very cautious about this. And: I'm already short, underwater and could only add another one way above 10.000, so I won't trade it anytime soon. After this 'disclaimer': I've got 966x/9680 to consider. A general question to all. I haven't read "Flash Boys", yet, but have been thinking: how high do you think is the probability that in the future all trading will be done by algorithms/machines? I mean, I am building my career on the assumption that I will be able to compete with the robots, and I...
to be honest it shouldn't mean anything 1 or 2 pip difference, it's just a question about how much drawdown you'll get when yo take the entry, and 1 or 2 pip is prolly pretty irrelevant IMO..

regarding machine/algoritms, as long as you're confident in your trading method and it's producing money you shouldn't worry about the future.. you'll adapt when something stops "working"..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #3,753
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:40am Apr 8, 2014 2:40am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Hi rendite, 3650 is the key point. Today we go first to 1.3729. I added some longs on EU with target 1.3729. Playing buy the dips for today with target 1.3729 Schickeria! {image}
Well done
  • #3,754
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:57am Apr 8, 2014 2:57am
Quoting hadox
ehhmm, waited for a euro test of 1.368x ish area, never happened, got some R at 1.374x might give some clues I guess..
so far 4x is acting as S , nearest R I have is at 1.379x..

Quoting hadox
{quote} range is broken, small bears flexing, lets see if this was a legit move.. I have some S at 1.648x and ofc R at 1.665x if this is a trap ..
the bear move is almost retraced, and we're near R again, news later might decide if this is a pullback or a new move from bulls I guess..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #3,755
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:21am Apr 8, 2014 3:21am
Quoting hadox
{quote} to be honest it shouldn't mean anything 1 or 2 pip difference, it's just a question about how much drawdown you'll get when yo take the entry, and 1 or 2 pip is prolly pretty irrelevant IMO.. regarding machine/algoritms, as long as you're confident in your trading method and it's producing money you shouldn't worry about the future.. you'll adapt when something stops "working"..
Good advice for the mid-term, but don't know about longer term, like 20+ years. It's of course futile to try to envision the future then, nevertheless it's scary to see what people with capital and the capital to buy the brains can potentially do to the market. Probably will mean that I will more and more retreat from day-trading and shift to speculating... All this fib and correlation stuff can be done within milliseconds by a machine...

Quoting Ken A
{quote} I was obsessed with the daily pips long and short overall didn't miss much but a lot screen hours to trade the hourly chart Yes, you could do with 500 pips stop but kinda late now. I shoulda at least keep one from 1.583x
Jaja... but all this would assume we go to AU 0.95 and 1.00 straight away, not very probable I think. Wouldn't be unhappy though, have some long AU with targets about there....
Fail better.
  • #3,756
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:34am Apr 8, 2014 3:34am
Oops: Rule Britannia... short GU @6690 and 6705.
And: AJ short triggerd @9585
Fail better.
  • #3,757
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:34am Apr 8, 2014 3:34am
Quoting Ken A
A/U next destination {image} @ Larry, too bad you didn't keep E/A short from the top it has 1,000 pips potential
Already noticed that the crosses can easily do these violent moves, but don't you think it will at least bounce a bit from 1,4750? It could touch 1,49xx - 1,5000 and then drop like a stone. The question is just what A/U is doing. NZD has been driving this up like crazy.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,758
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:44am Apr 8, 2014 3:44am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Oops: Rule Britannia... short GU @6690 and 6705. And: AJ short triggerd @9585
Hi Larry, I still have my AJ short too. It was in profit yesterday but bounced. Still holding though since JPY is gaining strength.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,759
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:47am Apr 8, 2014 3:47am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Good advice for the mid-term, but don't know about longer term, like 20+ years. It's of course futile to try to envision the future then, nevertheless it's scary to see what people with capital and the capital to buy the brains can potentially do to the market. Probably will mean that I will more and more retreat from day-trading and shift to speculating... All this fib and correlation stuff can be done within milliseconds by a machine... {quote} Jaja... but all this would assume we go to AU 0.95 and 1.00 straight away, not very probable...
I get your point about having a plan for the future, but +20 years is just too much.. I don't know which TF you're drawing your fibs from, and I dont know how many trades you're making a month.. but as I've said before I focus on the daily, last month I made 15 trades (cable, euro & the dax) , which is in the high end - anyway, it's the TF which suits me the most, and from my experience it's the most reliable.. what I like about the daily is it filters a lot of the intraday "noise", and sometimes one just have to accept that price movements sometimes are pretty friggin random.. I'm by the oppinion that you'll always be able to see supply / demand areas at the chart, no matter how hard the try , they can't hide.. ofc sometimes it doesn't work, but thats where the RR comes in..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #3,760
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:03am Apr 8, 2014 4:03am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Already noticed that the crosses can easily do these violent moves, but don't you think it will at least bounce a bit from 1,4750? It could touch 1,49xx - 1,5000 and then drop like a stone. The question is just what A/U is doing. NZD has been driving this up like crazy.
Not necessarily must retrace for crosses and it doesn't look like usual transaction by regular Joe's
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