High Quality forex trading end-of-day by michal9

Hello,
Just thought I'd post so that you don't think you are only talking to yourself!
Still following with interest. Tough to keep posting your results, especially during periods that are testing you.
Can't offer any useful advice I'm afraid as I am still at the study stage.

Jim

Thank you Jim. It helps to know. I appreciate. Please stay around.

Same here. I am with you. Don't feel alone. It's the patience that's what makes a trader.

Thanks a lot FX_California.

One losing and one winning trade closed today.
Both trades equal size, so net 1R plus.

GBPUSD winner. In hindsight we see that 4R was available. Fine. With my trading method of "blind" set & forget orders traded end of day, I do not try to ride the whole move, I try to take 2R.

USDJPY loss. Old level, but looked still valid. OK trade. Although... it may be that I should have deleted this order, waited to see how the price reacts to this level. For review. Need a larger sample size of cases like this to conclude what is best.

Little upmove on equity curve.

One winning trade closed today.

XAUUSD, looks like a good trade. Although profitable trades usually look good while they not necessarily are. As usual there was more "available", but I go for a set & forget TP @2R.

Equity curve result improved to loss of -1.22%.

One losing trade closed today.

EURGBP loss. Trade for review... there was a level with a fast and significant departure, it was in line with daily trend, but, it was not a reversal level, i.e. it was not a rally base drop, not even really a drop base drop, more like a consolidation, little base, drop.

That's how it looks like.

I talked with my friend today. He is an experienced and consistently profitable trader. I shared my plan. He said I should stick to this plan for as much as one year, not just three months as I planned, to fully asses this method and my ability to trade it and also to see it in different market conditions.

I think I will take this recommendation and will trade it for a year. If only results are not disasterous ;-) but this is rather unlikely, I hope.
We will see, I am still on a lookout for other methods to trade end-of-day, with high quality, in a consistently profitable way. Ultimately I want to have a few systems.

Hi Michal9,

Excellent journal. I think you are doing good, I just saw your stats and after 69 trades and even with 35% win rate you are just -1.66% on your capital. IMO not many strategies and trade management could provide such results in long run. It's just a matter of time before things started getting better and when it does there would be no looking back. I am trading similar strategy, but I have plenty of time to trade intra day supply & demand setups, so can tell with experience that you are on the right path.

All the best.

Hi Alifari, thank you. I very much appreciate your comment. It is great and reassuring to hear that I seem to be on a right path :-)
Thank you. All the best!

Three losing trades today. Two of them half size, so "counts" as just two in total, so it erases yesterday's +2R.

GBPUSD losing trade, as "usual", sold the bottom tick of the day. I probably should have traded one level below, also shown on the chart. Or both.

NZDUSD losing trade, if I traded the level below, just like with GBPUSD, it would have been a winner already. I was thinking long yesterday which level to trade. Now I know what would have been a winner ;-) Have I made a poor decision? For review, not sure now. The level I traded was stronger than the one below. And of course I did not want to miss a good trade.

USDCAD loss, a good trade.


I missed a 2R TP entry on XAU today. This is somewhat frustrating.
And, unfortunately, equity curve is down again. What will I do? Keep going!

Have a nice weekend.

One losing trade closed today.

EURCAD, good trade, at least did not stop out a few minutes after filled, but only a few hours later.

Two positions are opened and profitable, and if the history is any guide, they will retrace and get closed at stop loss tomorrow.

What else can I do rather than executing with high quality the end-of-day the trading plan, that I tested very well, and it produced good results in testing, and is a system that makes sense to me and I trust it and suits my time availability given my full time job? What else?

Of course, insanity is to do the same thing all over again and expect a different result, but I trust I am still in the phase where it makes sense, to really master the setup and reasonable to expect market conditions more friendly to this method. Time will tell. Nothing lasts forever ;-)

Hello Michal,

Your frustration is palpable!
May I suggest you take another look at Alfonso's thread, particularly post 1. He updates the initial mammoth post occasionally, so it may be somewhat different to the last time you viewed it.
I am working my way through his thread currently. There is a lot of information in there.
I am unaware whether you have used Forex Tester in your analysis (alternatives are available). It is useful for Sim. trading as your brain cannot jump ahead and see the winning setups meaning you cannot "cheat".

Jim

Hello Jim,

Yes, I will do read his post #1 again. Thanks for suggestion. I read his post many times, but last time it was a few months ago.

My method was largely inspired by Alfonso's. It is different in a way that is is much simpler (fewer conditions), so as a result my system offers more trading opportunities and rules in my method are very simle clear, so easier to apply. At the same time his method is more elaborate and advanced... yes, I will re-read.

Simulator - yes I used. Either bar-by-bar manually in MT by pressing F12 with no chaeting, or some free tools in MT4, or using a demo version of forex tester 2 (I do not want to spend $200k on it although it may be a good idea). I guess it is worthwhile to do again some simulated trading, on the last 3 months history maybe, and compare by results to live ones. Yes, I will add it to my to do list :-)

Thanks.

Two losing trades closed today.

EURUSD, closed almost at the bottom tick of the day, as it often happens. Luckily this was a half-size trade, as at the moment of placing an order I had a GBPUSD order as well. That one was stopped out two days ago.

XAUUSD loss, that was fast. Two earlier levels worked, but one of them I had no order, another one missed my order by a pip, and the third one where I got a fill, it stopped me out. Well, that's a kind of nature of limit orders. But that's the part of this system.

I have a new low on my equity curve. Nothing to celebrate. As much as my positive mindset lasts, I am grateful for the opportunity to trade and to learn ;-)

I am reading another book, "The Talent Code" by Daniel Coyle. It says getting good at something requires a lot of dedicated practice, and practice in a way that you make mistakes, so as to learn from them and improve. Looks like I have lots of opportunities to learn.

Ok, I am moving on, to get better every day ;-)

Hi Michal9,

I hope you won't mind my analysis on your gold trade. I am also using similar strategy, so just wanted to share my view.

Hi Alifari, thanks a lot for your analysis! Yes, it is very helpful to look get your perspective. Thanks again and please come back with more charts and comments whenever you feel like, especially in cases you have a different view than mine. On this XAUUSD chart, my order was right above the level below, that it within your red box. I certainly agree there is also this demand above, which was fresh bot not original (if I get the Alfonso's naming right). And it got broken, so indeed may act as a supply or resistance level.

No trades closed today.
A few new orders in place.

I discovered something new to me: free 10-days trading course by SMB University by Mike Bellafiore (the author or great trading books One Good Trade and The Playbook). This is the link to this course http://www.smbtraining.com/free_trad...ning_smbu/day1
To access day 2, day 3 and so on up to day10, just edit the ending of the link, e.g. day2, day3... day10

I check out your journal quite often, since we trade similar strategy, as such will definitely post my view, if I see anything that would be beneficial for both. We all learn from each other and I always look forward for progressive discussion. Keep up the good work.

One winning trade closed today.


NZDUSD. OK trade. There was also a setup on AUDUSD, but I decide to trade just one pair, full position size.

I missed a trade on USDJPY. Yesterday was thinking of placing an order but decided against it. That's OK, too.

There is an uptick on my equity curve, which is a good thing, in this overall bleak performance picture.
You may notice that some winners are big, some are small.... they are always 2x larger than losses in pips, but sometimes I trade half the position size on two correlated pairs. Sometimes just one order gets filled. As a result there are sometimes small "upticks" on the equity curve, sometimes, unfortunately rarely, normal ones, like today.

I will take a few days off and will be back on Tuesday, April 22nd.

Thanks for all comments so far, happy trading, happy Easter for those who celebrate it, and see you soon.

Welcome back from holidays.

No trades closed today.

I have a number of orders in place, waiting to be filled or cancelled.

Another book I very much recommend is this: Brett N. Steenbarger - "Enhancing Trader Performance Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology". Deep practice is a cornerstone of expertise.

If anyone reads this book, or has done this before, I will be happy to hear your comments on it, or any other books I am recommending.
Thank you.

One losing trade closed today.
One position open, paper profit of around 1R.

EURAUD loss. Likely an example showing that we should have no order in place before news. On the other hand, often news just triggers good entries. For review anyway.

Nothing to celebrate on equity curve, but I am honest with myself.

Just 3 more weeks to go, until my pre-planned mid-May checkpoint after 3 months of live trading of this method. And... unless there is some turn-around of 4 winners in-a-row, likely the end result will be negative. That's OK. Purpose was to learn, practice discipline, follow a specific system with high quality end-of-day, and this objective I am on track to achieve. If outcome is negative, it is a valuable insight. Journal analysis, once completed, will tell me is this was a system, or my quality of execution, or market conditions, etc.

Two losers and one winner today, net negative 1R as, in line with Murphy's law, a winner was half-size (as I had correlated trades order).

AUDUSD winner, nicely lucky entry, good exit. Correlated entry order on EURAUD (not shown) missed entry by 3 pips, would be a winner, too.
XAUUSD loss, looks like OK trade. I am almost "glad" a loss was not by just 1 pip, but a few more. Price stalled at the next supply level.
USDJPY loss, TP missed by 1 pip, so this one can be safely added to my frustrating trades catalogue.

And, unfortunately, performance chart shows a new low on the equity curve.