How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

Nepul,

I understand what you're saying.

Nobody knows the future. Therefore nobody can say with total assurance that your strategy won't work.

All I'm saying is that between 2-3 million traders are currently running MT4 (or so I read), many thousands have no doubt tried and failed, and there are others using different charting platforms. Hence I think it's safe to assume that every approach that can possibly be thought of, has been tried by somebody. Sure, there are variations upon variations, but how many broadbrush concepts are actually possible?

Big institutions continue to spend millions on the salaries of market analysts. If it was possible shortcut this, i.e. make money without performing some kind of (fundamental or technical) analysis, then I'm sure that they would do it.

IMO casino games are a good analogy to trading. Roulette can't be beaten unless you can find a physically biased wheel. It doesn't matter what strategy you use, or what MM, the house edge is always 2.70% (or 5.26% on wheels with 00) against you, and if you play for long enough, your performance will trend toward this mathematical expectancy. Of course you can get lucky by simply placing a few big bets, and then quit while you're ahead. There is no type of analysis that can beat roulette in the long term; the mechanics of the wheel, and house edge, remain the same no matter what you try.

Blackjack, by contrast, is potentially beatable mathematically, because the composition of the deck is constantly changing. If you place bigger bets when there are a greater percentage of high cards remaining in the deck, you can overturn the house edge (videos like this explain it in greater detail).

IMO much the same applies to forex. The 'rules' are more flexible (e.g. you can scale in, out of trades etc) but the same principles apply. For example:

1. Br0ker costs like spread and commission have exactly the same effect as the house edge.

2. Setting a TP and SL is just like deciding whether you'll place a 1:1 payoff or 36:1 payoff bet in roulette; if you take 1:1 RR trades (TP=SL), then over time you'll win approx twice as often as if you take 2:1 RR trades (TP=2xSL), because the market rises/falls on approx 50/50 basis. Hence there is no real edge in this: if you take low RR trades (SL>TP), you'll have a high win rate, but your losses will be commensurately bigger; if you take high RR trades (TP>SL), then you'll have a low win rate, but your wins will be commensurately bigger. If you want a 99% win rate, then simply have a SL that's 99x as far away from entry as your TP; you'll win almost all the time, but when the one loss comes along, it will wipe out the 99 wins.

3. You can use exactly the same MM strategies (anything from flat staking to martingale) with both casino games and forex.

4. It's possible to show mathematically that, if price rises/falls on exactly 50/50 basis, at every point in time, then ALL trading systems would have an expectancy of zero, and eventually fail due to costs. Just as with roulette.

So where can an edge in FX possibly come from? (In blackjack, if we could bet 0 units when the deck was unfavorable, and 1 unit when it was highly favorable, we would own half of Nevada in a few months. But this suspicious gameplay would have us banned, whereas with forex there are no pit bosses scrutinizing our play — we can do whatever we wish). The analogy with trading holds good, when markets are favorable we risk 1 unit; when they're not, we risk 0 units by not trading. So how do we know whether markets are favorable or not? The answer is proven, high quality analysis. We need to wait patiently for situations when imminent price movement is not 50/50, giving us a "directional bias"; or otherwise some kind of "behavioral bias" (e.g. we don't know which direction price will move, but it's currently highly congested, and a good size breakout is likely).

Anyway, those are the reasons why I believe that strategies that lack some kind of analysis will eventually fail, because they have no real edge to overcome the br0ker costs. Sure, we can tinker with win rate, by adjusting the RR of our trades; but if RR and win rate are approximately inversely proportional to one another, then (regardless of which strategy we use) our profit factor, ignoring costs, will always oscillate around 1. We need to find a way of breaking this equilibrium between RR and win rate, if we want a PF that's sufficiently greater than 1 to overcome costs.

We can also employ different types of MM (varying position size), but this gives us no real edge (see PipMeUp's mathematical proof here).

If you have a RR/win rate balance that gives you a 99% win rate (i.e. SL is 99xTP), then the strategy will be difficult to test, because losing trades will be very rare, possibly giving you misplaced overconfidence; but if you're unlucky enough to get 2 or 3 consecutive losses, then they can potentially cripple your account. And even if your exits are more complex than simply using a SL and TP, you can still calculate both win rate and average RR from your closed trades.

So my basis for questioning your strategy, without actually backtesting it myself, is that I don't see any analysis that's needed to break the RR/win rate equilibrium. But having said all this, with leverage and some luck, anything is possible, if you want to use forex as a vehicle for gambling, and quit while you're ahead. What I've been talking about is a long term edge.

But anyway, the best person to test your strategy is YOU. I wish you continued success.

Sorry if this post is garbled, it's 3:45am here in NZ and I'm hurrying it so that I can return to bed.

David

Thank you very much Hanover for your answer,

i'm writing from italy, and here is only 5:00 pm, i really understand and agree what are you saying.
If we want to talk in math term i will try to do, well...assuming that we have 99 % winning trades, so 99 on 100 we will win.
As i told before to double capital we need 10 trades of 5 pips each one right?
Well, as we assumed that 99 on 100 we win, it means that for 9 times ( something more) we double the capital, the other time we lose , am i right?

so when i reach 50 $ i 'll take money and restart again, until come that day i will lose the capital(50$)..
so i win 50 + 50 + 50 + 50 + 50 + 50 +50 + 50 + 50 -50 ...
Now i'm talking only in math language, then for the real trading will be different, but the concept is that.

The other way to earn is to profit 5 pip with 0.1 lot and stop at 50 as before, but this time when we lose 50 pip with 0.1 the next trade will be 1 lot. The central point is that if we really have 99 % it's very difficoult , almost impossible that we have 2 "consecutives " lost, but by the way i dont like this way to manage.
The main things that we know is that one day we'll burn our capital, the problem is how many time you make double it before it happen??
If i make double capital 10 times,i dont care if sometimes i will burn it.


Well, now hanover i want to tell you about trading, as i told before, every daily candle make a minimum or a max, we can say around 9 (more) on 10 candle make a minimum or max of at least 4-5 pips.
Well, there we have a very high probability that it happens, but it's not enogh!
Look the chart, with the red arrow i will show you a candle who happen very rarely , this candle dont make a minimum, go directly up.
The nice thing is not this candle, but the next one(green arrow)! What is the probability to have 2 consecutives candle without minimum??
So we only well take this candle(the green arrow) , it give us the double of the high probability that already give a candle without minimum.
This system dont take more than 15 minutes each day.
And you'll make 1-2 trades each day.


Even if i'm right on this, be sure that one day that 1 % will burn my account, but how many times i earned in the meanwhile?how many time i make double my capital?

By the way if you have some idea to help to improve it please tell me...
Hoping to be clear and really sorry for my bad english...
Nepul

No you don't. You obviously rather hear falsehoods that match your wrong perception than the truth.

No it isn't. As Hanover pointed out, there are millions of people thinking about the markets, as it involves making money. Some of those people have very high IQs, vast resources, and deep pockets too. So, what makes you think you are the first to come up with this idea?

Do you even understand the implications of what you've wrote? With that system alone you'd own all the money in the world and everything in it in a few years.

Your mindset makes it quite clear that you are new to trading. Not that being new to trading is bad. Everyone has to be new to trading at some point. It's just that your mindset is that of a beginner, plain wrong.

The point should be that 10 times you won't make those 2-3 pips. Instead you'd be open to a few large losses that would wipe out all your tiny gains, and more... Then there's the spread costs, slippage, etc that would make all those tiny gains even tinier. Hanover was kind enough to explain it in detail. Summing it up, the math doesn't work. You're wasting your time with this idea, and inviting others to waste their's too.

If you don't like the truth it's your problem. I'd rather have 1 person telling me the truth than 100 lying. But hey that's just me, and it doesn't really matter. You know best. So, as I've told before, do what you want. It's your life. Btw, you are welcome. Now you can enjoy my silence. Out.

hahahaha
I loved you man
You make me remember myself
A few months ago
I also invented a crazy strategy
I was scalping on Monthly Chart for 5-10 Pips
Anyway
My strategy failed
Anyway
I hope you can succeed
but remember
Forex will not make you rich quickly

Nepul,

OK, I think I understand your system. Please excuse me if I am wrong.

What you’re saying is that price almost always moves at least 4-5 pips in both directions, from the day’s open, during the course of a day. When it doesn’t, a marubozu candle (one with no upper/lower wick) is formed, which is very rare.

Hence, if you buy at the day’s open, and set a TP of 4-5 pips, then the probability of price reaching your TP during the course of the day is extremely high. Or conversely, the probability of a marubozu (upper wick < 4-5 pips) is extremely low.

Alternatively, you could sell at the day’s open, and lose only when a candle with a lower wick of < 4-5 pips occurs.

I assume that, if your TP is not reached, you exit your loss at the end of the day?

As with every system, the profit factor (which is a measure of long term expectancy) is the product of the win rate and the RR. Hence the key questions are:

1. How frequently does a marubozu candle occur? (this will determine your win rate)
2. How much do you lose, on average, when a marubozu candle occurs? i.e. what is the average length, in pips, of a marubozu candle? (this will determine your RR).

Don't forget to factor in br0ker costs (spread etc), that both decrease your average win size, and increase your average loss size, i.e. RR.

If you don’t want to write an EA, you could easily test this using Excel. Use MT4’s History Center (press F2) to export the daily OHLC data as a CSV file. However, to get a statistically meaningful result, you’d need a huge amount of data, especially given that losses are so rare.

OK, now you extend this idea further. What is the probability that two consecutive marubozus occur? If there’s no correlation between the candles, then the probability is n^2, if n is the probability of a single marubozu. Hence if n is small, you’d be justified in increasing the position size if yesterday’s candle was a marubozu, incidentally helping you to recover from yesterday’s loss. But on the extremely rare occasions that you do get consecutive marubozus, obviously increased pos size = increased disaster.

The problem I have with these kinds of system, is that while they can have an extremely high win rate, there is always the possibility of unlimited loss. But you could open a small size account (money you can afford to lose) and see how far you can grow it. Of course, even with a high win rate, you never know when a loss is going to occur — it might be the very first trade — so you never know when to ‘quit while you’re ahead’. I would call that ‘gambling’ rather than ‘trading’, but there’s nothing wrong with that, if you’re comfortable with the idea personally. It’s your money, your choice.

Despite the possibility of unlimited loss, you could still consider applying some kind of risk model, to determine the starting position size, relative to your account capital. For example, let’s say that the biggest loss in 15 years worth of daily candles was 125 pips. Then you’d decide what percent of your capital you’d be willing to lose, if that was to occur. Let’s say that was 25% (then two marubozus would cause a loss of 50%, and so on — more if you increase position size, like I described two paragraphs ago). If 125 pips equates to 25% of your capital, then a 5 pip gain would set your starting pos size at 1%. But given the difficulties that I explained in gaining a statistically meaningful result for any testing, that is extremely rough, and the possibility of unlimited loss will always exist.

OK, now you ask how you might improve your system. Well, you have two choices — to buy or sell at the open — you could backtest to find which is the better bet, based on the candle patterns of the last few days, the direction of the daily trend, and possibly areas of support/resistance. In other words, analysis.
You can also choose which pair to trade, likewise filtering on this data. For example, if you choose the strongest and cleanest trending pair, then everything else being equal, there is a greater probability that the pair will continue to move in the direction of its current trend. By choosing to trade in this direction, you’d increase your probability of a win, and reduce the probability of an adverse marubozu.

Alternatively, you could also consider trading pairs with the lowest spreads, and/or taking trades only in the direction of positive swap (rollover), which would help to offset the negative effect of br0ker costs (which, over time, are much more significant than most people realize).

Those are some ideas to hopefully get you started. Good luck.

David

I'm realy surprised how many good thread you can find on this forum and how rich they can be with knowlege.
Nepul you seem to me a good guy i just dont know why you dont whant to listen hanover or other guys here.
I will try to make us simple us i can so mabe you can understund it but hanover has already sayed it .
Two years ago when i found forex in my life journey i started reading about it and read somewhere that millioners and billioneres trade M5 and M1.So us i whanted to be a millionare i started learning how to trade.You can imagine how much indicators,trend lines,support-ressestance,ema,sm and etc i used on M5 and M1.Yeah i know if a trader is going to read that he will cry from laughting.I spend almost a year learning and reading here on that forum for strategyes indicators and etc,and i the end i just killed 4 demo accounts with 50K balance.I tried everything.Everything that you can imagine or even that exist in forex us an indicator too help you on whater it was.
Yes i agree with you can take profit from 1 trade 10 pips and them from another 1 trade 10 pips but you cant close your entry at 1 pip loose because of brokers spead and if price goes against you you will lose how much 5 pips ? 10 pips ? and them you will close it ? So whats the point to lose everything that you won ? See man i dont know if you are new to forex and i dont whant to insult you or to go against you i just whant to help you just like other people helped me here and they gave me to understund what i couldn't.Try to look on a bigger timefream and take a look on this forum you will find many many good thread and to many good info.
Belive me Nepul the strategy that you are trying to make it work,it will never work because if it could them everyone whould be a rich person,and i'm telling you all this because i know how you are thinking and i know what you whant to do just because i was there and tryed the same think and i failed.If you whant to me help you or to talk about what you are trying to do so you can get a bit of help them pm me.

You didn't search a lot! What is supposed to be new? This kind of novel idea pops up every two month in FF. Your MM is nothing else than a martingale, invented in the 18th century. The stopped martingale variante, that is withdrawing half of the money when the account is doubled, was thoroughly proven wrong as well.

No. And you said 15 times in post #1. Which is wrong too. 0.1 lot is $1/pip. 5 pip profit is $5. You need 20 trades to double your $100 account.
There is 18% chance a 99% winrate system takes a loss before the 20th trade. That's not small 18% !

In this event, with your SL of 50 pips, the account would be $145 (100 + 5 x 19 - 50) which is insufficient to open a full lot position as the margin requirement
of your broker is $330 (post #18). If you start with $100 and withdraw half the money when you doubled the account, you'll never have more than $200. You can never open the full lot recovery position. You need a broker with 700:1 leverage or more money at risk.

One chance out of 10000. That's small but not impossible at all. You can also have a loser followed by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 winners then a loser again.
Thanks to the x10 "sure recovery" this will result in a loss between $505 and $550. More than 5 times the starting balance. From that point you need 101 to 110 successful trades. With 3 trades a day that's one and a half month of scalping to only get your money back. Actually no. Because you have 64% chance taking at least another loser in this sequence of 101 trades. This adds another 3 weeks to the recovery time. But you again have 40% chance of taking yet another loss in this extension of the recovery process. And so on. You'll need more than 3 months in average just to recover the DD of the x10 "sure recovery".
=> A quater of a normal year will be devoted at recovering from a single such event.

You need a 7 pip move to overcome the spread and take profit at +5. My database for E/U daily says that 929 out of 3839 candles had no wick on the side of the open longer than 6 pips. You have 50% chance being in the correct direction. Your winrate is estimated to be 87.9%. Very far from 99%.

What is the probability it happens two days in row? 228 pairs of candles match in my database. => 5.9% chance

Fantastic research PipMeUP. Such detail. Imho, that's as helpful as it can get. Hope Nepul feels the same.

The best post/reply ever on FF!

I do mean it!

still thank you Hanover for your great answer,
"I assume that, if your TP is not reached, you exit your loss at the end of the day? "
Actually i tested it with lfhsimulator, and it never happened, or it take my 5 take profit or it take stop loss, by the way it's a problem that for sure will happen and i have to improve it.
"How frequently does a marubozu candle occur? (this will determine your win rate)
How much do you lose, on average, when a marubozu candle occurs? i.e. what is the average length, in pips, of a marubozu candle? (this will determine your RR)."

A marubozu occur usually every 10-15 candle from my test, by the way i never try to do it with a high volatile instrument like eurjpy, cause there may happen that it go before to take the stop loss and then to do some minimum or maximum.So i do only with eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy,usdcad, audusd.
Ok Hanover i will tell you something more about my idea of MM.
I explained a way to use the martingale when i lose, i also wrote that i dont like this way to manage, even if it can work.
I will try to explain , but believe me it's very hard to explain , cause my bad english.
So, from my test i know that when i buy to take my 5 pips a lot of times price go against me for also 20-30 pips before to take my profit with a high probability, so i supposed what if we buy directly when price it's 20-30 pips far from the open(always without make max or min) ??
Please if you dont understand it tell me, cause this is the focus of the strategy, and i can explain better if i wrong to write something.
Ok i try to do an examples, remembering that i'm just tryng to improve an idea.
Candle open, price go directly down without to make a max, it go down for 20 pips,from my test i know price should go up to make a maximum with very high probability, well so i buy to earn the distance of the price from the open candle that is 20 pips...and i will risk 30 pips , because 50 ( of my previous stop ) less 20 == 30.
It should work.What do you think?
A Marubozu candle happen 3-4 time every day in two or three instrument, then i will show you how i find it.
In my demo account it gave a very good profit in the march month.
In the simulator it work very well in all the year.
Just i think i should work on it.
Nepul

"You didn't search a lot! What is supposed to be new? This kind of novel idea pops up every two month in FF. Your MM is nothing else than a martingale, invented in the 18th century. The stopped martingale variante, that is withdrawing half of the money when the account is doubled, was thoroughly proven wrong as well."
Sorry man , i was not talking about the MM, i was talking that i never hear someone talking about the marubozu candle probabilty and to take advantage from it.
I never found someone who take advantage from the distance of the price to make the max or min of a candle.
The focus is that i'm tryng to go against the formation of that candle, taking advantage in the meanwhile.
When price go far from the open (without make max or min) i will take advantage from the distance from the open candle, i can earn 5pips, or 10, or 20 , or 30, it depend from my patience, but something is sure, i have a high probability that a marubozu candle dont occur, and i will try to take advantage of it.
By the way if you know some forum or book who talk about it please tell me, i'm really interested.
"No. And you said 15 times in post #1. Which is wrong too. 0.1 lot is $1/pip. 5 pip profit is $5. You need 20 trades to double your $100 account."
you are complety right man , i wrong to write, cause from my plan , i'm making 2 trade of 5 pips each day, so i wanted to mean 10 days.
thank you to correct me

By the way , my friend , as i wrote before, i just described an idea to manage money, i also wrote there that " i dont like this kind to manage money and i'm triyng to improve it , check on what i wrote for Hanover, there i'm explaining what i'm gonna try to do to manage better.

Ok , now i will try to explain with an examples.
Before i wanna say something about the thread, just to be clear.
This is not the holy gral!And i never want to mean something like that.
This is not already a trading system, i'm still testing and improving it.
Please be concentrate because now i'm gonna explain you really what i think is the focus of my idea.
If you dont understand something please tell me , i will repeat.
In this photo there is the open candle on 7 april 2014 of gbpusd(today).
You see price open and go quickly up without to make a minimum, it continue to go up for 10 pips.
Well, when price is distant 10 pips from the open we still have a very high probability that it go down to make a daily minimum, maybe we shoul wait a few time, but we dont care about it, we're going against the formation of a marubozo candle that is very very rarely!
So there we can sell !
Our take profit here will be 10 pips, that is , as i said, the distance from the opening, and our stop loss will be 40 pips.
If you are more patient you for sure can wait for better opportunities, for example wait when price take a 20 pips distance from the open, at that moment you can profit 20, and stop loss 30.
The focus is always that you have a great probability that a marubozu candle doesn't occur.
Well, i hope to be clear, maybe i wrong but i'm tring this system in demo and it's working very well, until now i'm not using a martingale system , even if
maybe something like this may help.

Nepul,

Some general comment re MM:
Increasing bet size is viable only if expectancy has improved since the prior bet(s) were placed; otherwise, you're merely playing a gambling game of hit or miss. Increasing bet size merely to recover recent losses has no valid mathematical basis; market behavior and probabilities aren't going to change due to one retail trader's P/L. And, everything else being equal, recent losses are no more significant than historical losses.

For example, if you size consecutive trades at 1 lot, 2 lots, 3 lots, and the 3 lot position wins 10 pips, but the 1 lot position loses 10 pips, you're ahead; but if the outcomes are reversed, the same MM works against you. Hence unless you have objective statistical proof that one trade setup delivers a higher expectancy than another, then you'd do equally well, over time, by simply sizing at the average of 2 lots, 2 lots, 2 lots, i.e. consistent sizes. You must also consider overall account risk: sizing at 2 lots instead of 1 lot more than doubles your risk of ruin, however trivial it might be.

I can't comment specifically on your latest proposals; the only way to gain an idea as to how profitable (or otherwise) any strategy is, is to test it yourself. However, if I understand you correctly, you could perhaps run a statistical analysis along the lines of if price moves X pips away from the open in a given direction, what is the probability of its subsequently retracing Y pips back toward the open, possibly in a later session during the same day. Results might differ on different days of the week, e.g. Monday, Friday. Might be worth a try; but I'm sure it's been tested many times before.

I would refer back to my general comment that without some kind of analysis, (1) I don't believe that it's possible to gain a long term net positive pip count, and (2) that, everything else being equal, no kind MM can in itself provide an edge (see the link to PipMeUp's math-based proof, in post #21). I suggested a couple of (analysis-based) ways that might improve your system in the last 2-3 paragraphs of post #25.

I've already posted extensively on martingale elsewhere (e.g. here and here). Also the myths post here.

David
__________________

@PipMeUp: nice post, as always.
@Vitez: thanks.

I understand the idea better now. Here is an excel file where I plot the length of the wick at the open side of the candle. Data are from E/U daily.
The distribution is exponentially fading to zero (black line).
- Actually the zero length is THE MOST PROBABLE with 6% chance.
- 80% of the wicks are smaller than 42 pips. So we could say that if the price is further than 42 pips from the open you'd better not go against this move with 80% confidence.
- In fact if the price is only 20 pips away from the open price you only have ~40% chance of seeing it back there.

I've no time to check but what do you think about opening in the direction of the move with a 40 pip SL when the 20 pips are reached?
At the bar close you set an OCO buy 20 pips above the close and sell 20 below the close. The TP would be the ADR minus the 20 pips already gone.
(no idea if this can really work or not!)

thank you very much for your work Pipmeup...

"I've no time to check but what do you think about opening in the direction of the move with a 40 pip SL when the 20 pips are reached?"
I'm thinking about it, i think can born something very interesting...

i'm trying to understand better this exel, it's not easy for me...
you told me that if price is further than 42 pips from the open you only have 20% that it will come back, right?
so if price is 284 pips far from the open i have 100% that it doesn't come back?if it's true it can be my stop loss , we are measuring the lenght of the candle, so i should open positions in the direction of the move with 284 SL, but we should define the TP.
what is the date of your excel test?

i'm still thinking about the system you posted,
am i right if i say that 21 % of change to fail if i want to take only 5 pips??


by the way i wanna try to make it very simple, and i'm improving it with another filter, so please, watch this photo and try to understand what is the real probability mixing this photo with the #post 32 'photo.

The most important thing for me is the probability to have a winning trade and then to double faster the capital.
So the focus for me , as you say in the photo is: how is the probability to have 2 consecutives marubozu candle?
Because as you see in the photo, i will enter when a marubozu candle appears but not on this, on the next one.
i'm really not able like you in math, but i think that in this case we have for sure more probability than the first marubozu candle.
I never saw two marubozu candle on eurusd, but for sure will happen, but it's very very rarely.
and 3 consecutives marubozu???
For now i know one thing , the is very rarely that a marubozu candle appear in a daily chart, but i still want to filter it, so i will enter in the next one trying to double the probabilty
So what we have to calcolate is the probability the 2 consecutives marubozu happen, this is the most important thing, i guess.

the main problem is to test it in a fast way , cause i'm not able to use excel, maybe an ea can help us to make a backtesting.

This is an test of the strategy you described with a 5 pip tp 2 pip spread and a martingale factor of 15. I decided to enter a long trade if the previous daily candle was a bull candle and vice versa.

Without martingale the strategy looses money in the long run. With martingale this EA achieved 100% profit which is the barrier for an martingale EA to be successful but it took 6 years to do this. 2 pip spread and no slippage is unrealistic as well and on the peak you would end up with 13% ROI after 6 years.

I modified the EA as well to only take trades after a pullback of 5 pips occurred in the opposite direction if the high or low in the other direction hasn't been breached by 5 pips. No improvement.



Those back-test might give you an idea but are not 100% correct. Anyways it shows again that martingale is just not worth the risk and that it does not improve the profit.

thanks you very much kilian19, i'm really not able to make something like this.
just a question are you sure with this ea, to open position only after a marubozu(no min or max) appear and so only on the next one?
So you see a marubozu candle and you enter in the next one, if also this one became a marubozu so you fail, you should use a martingale, this is very rarely.
how many time ea use the martingale?
are you sure with this ea to open the position only how i describe in the photo of #post 32 ?? remember there i describe the focus of the entry....

it's a great result, but not enough!
We dont care about the signal that seems to be so rarely now i'm gonna explain you why!
look this photo, this is a daily chart but this daily chart doesn't start candle from 00:00 am, but from 23:00..
Well as you can understand we will have a lot of signal cause we dont care about price now, but just of the time, we can also choice a daily chart who start from 05:30 and finish at 05 : 30 of the next day, we just need of an interval of 24 hours.
by the way the photo of the chart is thanks to this indicator i will share with you, but be carefull cause usually wrong cause of the weekend break, by the way you can do the same manually
if you can mix what i post in # post 32' photo, after a marubozu occur entering in the next one, using martingale if 2 consecutives marubozu happen , and using more signal thanks this indicator or anyway thanks what this indicator want to mean, would be great!


i found this indicator on this forum, was very hardly, but be carefull as i told it usually wrong, it's better to do the same manually

Something else you might be interested in: if tomorrow is a bullish day, the low will form first with a high probability. It is quite rare that, for an up day, the price opens, goes to the high then to the low then to the close, crossing three times the body. When it happens you usually get a spinner top/doji day of small range. Of course the same applies for a bearish day.

What happens if the price is below the open by say 20 pips then reverses and returns to the open price? Normally you should get a up day. The lower wick is less than 42 pips in 80% of the cases (for E/U) so you get a slight statistical advantage. The probability of the day to be up is >50% and if the day is indeed up you won't be stopped out with 80% probability. If ever this works (just an idea for now), I think that taking profit for a few pips is not a good idea. I would let it run for 3 RR, even if it take several days; unless you get an opposite signal.
Below is E/U daily. The rebel candles are in orange (down) and light blue (up). Remark that they aren't always losers.

"What happens if the price is below the open by say 20 pips then reverses and returns to the open price? Normally you should get a up day. The lower wick is less than 42 pips in 80% of the cases (for E/U) so you get a slight statistical advantage."

i understand what you are saying, you want to take advantage of your 80% that the wick is not more than 42, so you should sell/ buy when price open without make a max (for example) then when it go down for 20 pips you can buy taking advantage of your 80% probability and then risk 23 pips, and take profit 60 pips.

It's totally different from what i was saying, but i think it can work.
I still say that the only way to test it is with an ea , backtesting it for a long period.