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Weekly/h4 trend trading - flow

  • #61
  • Apr 3, 2014 4:01pm Apr 3, 2014 4:01pm
love this story, don't need to explain the significance

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #62
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:32pm Apr 3, 2014 6:32pm
2nd Channce in GBP / JPY
3 pending orders, the first two orders with take, 3rd order limit is the stars
JVBS

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JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #63
  • Apr 4, 2014 9:47am Apr 4, 2014 9:47am
week 2 summary.

Have been risking 2.5% per trade, Profits so far 5.2%, and open positions 45.7%, max drawdown to establish position 12.5% - pretty decent figures
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Added to EA H4 this week, 2 positions. +1490 will close the second position for my intra-week profit and let the position run.

Have 3 shorts left open... fundamentals look good for more next week...
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tradewith60
  • #64
  • Apr 4, 2014 9:57am Apr 4, 2014 9:57am
Still making some simple mistakes in my trading that would push my profit even higher.

1. SP500 left valid trade - would of been worth 600 pips - reason I left it - didn't look like it would win - dumb ass move, don't predict, participate.

2. Closed all the intraweek entries too early except EA.... Unless we spike mid week the extremes of the week are more often than not the end of the week.

Some stuff to work on going forward.
tradewith60
  • #65
  • Apr 4, 2014 10:00am Apr 4, 2014 10:00am
the missed SP entry, no reason at all the start of the week is not valid, we're not looking to be right, we're taking small risks in good locations...

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tradewith60
  • #66
  • Apr 4, 2014 10:06am Apr 4, 2014 10:06am
The internal debate about trend filter rages on in my mind.

I know there is no right and wrong, slower reaction is preferable as that opens up the deeper retraces in the more sustained trends. Although that is not the only approach that will work.

I am however very keen on the idea of using an MA on the same timeframe as I find the less information we process in our trading the better, even a quick flip upto the daily timeframe can trigger the sub conscious to start second guessing our plan....

I 100% believe now that less time actually at the charts will be hugely beneficial for most if not all traders.

Anyway - that being said, I am favouring the 100ema on H4 for bias (not massively different from 50sma on daily - but no need to look at the daily!).

there is no right and wrong for this, you can decide for yourself as long as you understand the difference to a filter that changes quickly to slowly.
tradewith60
  • #67
  • Apr 4, 2014 10:28am Apr 4, 2014 10:28am
Nice additions to your journal !

I open 0,10 lot per position (No matter how far my stop, maybe I should consider changing size in function of SL) for an account of +- 2.500€, this means on average I risk 1 - 2% of my account .. I feel this is too much, the profits are encouraging but I fear the day a long string of losses appear it will be catastrophical All this to say that if you risk 2,5% it could be worse ?

Trade what you see, not what you think, totally agree

About the bias .. it's a hard one that I still also struggle with .. Maybe this to consider:

- When using an MA on a higher timeframe or a MA with a big T on the same timeframe the string of winners and losers is bigger .. So you have to handle the emtional part better and probably reduce risk. (+ Entry is often later)
- When using previous candle of higher timeframe like I do the string of winners and losers is shorter .. So it's mentaly less enduring and risk can be higher, but somethimes you will close too early. (+ Often leaving pips on the table)

Just my thinking
Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t do something.
  • #68
  • Apr 4, 2014 11:26am Apr 4, 2014 11:26am
Regarding trend filter, I suspect this may be the biggest variable in performance between traders using this type of strategy. And I must admit, I can't make up my mind on this subject. If I was 60mm, I would be inclined to continue as before on the basis of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Still, there's no harm in seeing if different trend filters would have been better or worse.
Another idea might be the slope or % change of the MA. There is an interesting short article at http://www.bullbearings.co.uk/trader...p?gid=5&id=591
which uses the % change in the MA. I'm not saying I recommend it. It's just another approach. The article is primarily about "fat tails", i.e. high R:R ratios.
  • #69
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:28pm Apr 4, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting bobbles
Regarding trend filter, I suspect this may be the biggest variable in performance between traders using this type of strategy. And I must admit, I can't make up my mind on this subject. If I was 60mm, I would be inclined to continue as before on the basis of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Still, there's no harm in seeing if different trend filters would have been better or worse. Another idea might be the slope or % change of the MA. There is an interesting short article at http://www.bullbearings.co.uk/trader...p?gid=5&id=591...
Hi Bobbles, you're right, there is no need to play with it at all other than to find something that 'feels' right for the individual.

It's very hard to quantify better or worse because it is completely market dependent, if the trends change violently with high momentum then it would be very different to trends that fade out then reverse....

Ultimately the answer is to stick to a slow MA and using some discretion when you go against the bias - flexibility is always best. But we must insure some structure at least until we have the confidence and control to do away with all the boundaries completely.
tradewith60
  • #70
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:32pm Apr 4, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting bobbles
Regarding trend filter, I suspect this may be the biggest variable in performance between traders using this type of strategy. And I must admit, I can't make up my mind on this subject. If I was 60mm, I would be inclined to continue as before on the basis of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Still, there's no harm in seeing if different trend filters would have been better or worse. Another idea might be the slope or % change of the MA. There is an interesting short article at http://www.bullbearings.co.uk/trader...p?gid=5&id=591...
p.s great article....

notice how a medium and long RR ratio are both profitable but one has much higher drawdowns - that is why I trade the double entry method so you can smooth out the effect of the lower win rates. As long as you entry method is sound for both approaches of course...
tradewith60
  • #71
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:11pm Apr 4, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting 60minuteman
most traders are losing, what are they doing? if you're doing something similar you will lose... fact. Can you do this? it's not skillful, anyone can do it, you just need to decide it is what you're going to do. BALANCE AND EQUITY GRAPH 1YEAR (thanks Erin for the chart, a thing of beauty!) {image}
That looks an awful lot like Forex Tester 2. My weekend project or more likely several weeks project is to backtest this in FT2. I strongly suspect the equity curve will look just like this. However, I've been looking and reading quite a bit about different moving averages and I'm pretty impressed by Perry Kaufman's version, the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. ( http://codebase.mql4.com/5946 )

Anyway, in no small part thanks to you 60 I've arrived at the same conclusion: stop dicking around with entries so much and just let the market show which entries will survive, and then get the big R trades, so I'm completely on board with your approach. Gold and SP 500 yes, not decided yet which fx pairs...
  • #72
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:28pm Apr 4, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting o990l6mh
{quote} That looks an awful lot like Forex Tester 2. My weekend project or more likely several weeks project is to backtest this in FT2. I strongly suspect the equity curve will look just like this. However, I've been looking and reading quite a bit about different moving averages and I'm pretty impressed by Perry Kaufman's version, the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. ( http://codebase.mql4.com/5946 ) Anyway, in no small part thanks to you 60 I've arrived at the same conclusion: stop dicking around with entries so much and just let the...
Excellent to have you on board mate.... !

will check that MA...

p.s would be great to sneak a look at your data when you test... everyone loves data
tradewith60
  • #73
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:36pm Apr 4, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Excellent to have you on board mate.... ! will check that MA... p.s would be great to sneak a look at your data when you test... everyone loves data
Of course, I'll share allof it.

ps I'm Magnus from skype btw
  • #74
  • Apr 4, 2014 8:39pm Apr 4, 2014 8:39pm
some awesome data here... thanks Mike for the link

Important parts to note: RR and pullback V breakout entries

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...tml#post480246
tradewith60
  • #75
  • Apr 5, 2014 1:12pm Apr 5, 2014 1:12pm
Excellent links, 60mm and Mike. Thank you.
  • #76
  • Apr 7, 2014 2:15am Apr 7, 2014 2:15am
Much respect to you 60minuteman. I've spent at least 15 hours reading all yours posts. Thank you for your contribution to FF.
  • #77
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:51am Apr 7, 2014 4:51am
Quoting chiba_san
Much respect to you 60minuteman. I've spent at least 15 hours reading all yours posts. Thank you for your contribution to FF.
thankyou Sir, nice to have another trend trader on board... your summing up of the money management edge on the millipede thread was perfect.
tradewith60
  • #78
  • Apr 7, 2014 10:33am Apr 7, 2014 10:33am
Quoting chiba_san
Much respect to you 60minuteman. I've spent at least 15 hours reading all yours posts. Thank you for your contribution to FF.
Love chiba's money management to exit half position at for example 1:1, the only thing I can't understand is:

He suggested to never take profit for the other half position until I really need to spend money or until the trade reaches SL. How can I grow my account in this fashion?

Sorry for my english
  • #79
  • Apr 7, 2014 10:47am Apr 7, 2014 10:47am
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Love chiba's money management to exit half position at for example 1:1, the only thing I can't understand is: He suggested to never take profit for the other half position until I really need to spend money or until the trade reaches SL. How can I grow my account in this fashion? Sorry for my english
I would try and get more than 1:1 with the second position.
tradewith60
  • #80
  • Apr 7, 2014 12:48pm Apr 7, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Love chiba's money management to exit half position at for example 1:1, the only thing I can't understand is: He suggested to never take profit for the other half position until I really need to spend money or until the trade reaches SL. How can I grow my account in this fashion? Sorry for my english
If I may...Have a look at Peter crown postsThe idea is to change your mind from the 1:2 or 1:3 rr ''concept'' and adapt your trading strategy so you can get REAL runners: 1:5 , 1:10Take care
Slow & steady
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