Nowadays no one follow anything. If you look at different threads, even thread with titles EURUSD; traders are not trading EURUSD pair.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
- #121
- Apr 6, 2014 10:08am Apr 6, 2014 10:08am
- Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Love for all; Hatred for none | 3,566 Posts
Love for all; Hatred for none.
- #124
- Apr 6, 2014 10:50am Apr 6, 2014 10:50am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Doing It In Dubai | 2,457 Posts
{quote} You are right angelofx and that is why I don't like to go into teaching people the theory behind what I do and How I do it. Give two people the same indicator and they may get different results. Rather, forex is about making pips. I am not interested in indicators from anyone but I am interested in where you think price is going. Then I can factor that into my analysis - by assigning a probability to your analysis; based on your previous efforts. So, yes, you may not be able to decipher everything from the pictures I posted because there...
- #127
- Edited 11:57am Apr 6, 2014 11:38am | Edited 11:57am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
{quote} Good day everyone, I think all of us here understand the reason why we trade and of course it is because we want to make pips. But after reading this thread I cannot see anything I could learn rather just your statement that "I can predict where price is going". I understand that you have spent much time and effort achieving that level and now you actually can predict. But thinking about what your intentions are and all you have said in fact means that we could follow your calls and filter our own trading decisions. But I do not see how...
YOU are a newbie!!!!
Any forex strategy or system that is duplicated my the masses is DOOMED!!!!
How many years have you been in the business?
You think 95% of traders lose their account for nothing? Finally, I will never give you an indicator without first convincing you of its effectiveness. WHY? If I give it to you and you use it wrongly and lose your account, you will run back here and post nonsense.
- #128
- Apr 6, 2014 12:02pm Apr 6, 2014 12:02pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
{quote} You are welcomed! When we decide that a price level is reachable (most within 24 hrs, before the bar leaves your screen), I will be glad to hear from you how the level fits into your plans too. We are all traders and you must have your own plans. I am not going to dictate to you to throw your price targets away for mine. But you will realize with time that my levels are reliable. Your contribution will be valuable if you focus on helping other critique - constructively - the levels we post here. Thank you and more pips to you.
{quote} There is no problem with this approach. When an orange/yellow arrow appears on a bar, price should return to the top/bottom of the bar before the bar completely leaves your screen. So all you have to do is enter anywhere and wait for the correction. Now on the 1hr chart, 50-100pips is a good place to enter.
There are actually interesting things in the screens put on this topic. I don't know if I noticed the things that the author wanted to show
, but what I saw helped me.
Be this day Pipfully ! -> Love this smile !
-> Love this smile !- #134
- Edited 10:05pm Apr 6, 2014 3:19pm | Edited 10:05pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
Two options: UP or DOWN!!! That should be EASY.
@everybody:
Asked "Can mathematical models beat markets?" in an interview by Scientific American, statistical physicist Prof H Eugene Stanley replied "They haven't yet. Science is about empirical fact. There is no question that optimistic people think they can beat the market, but they don't do it consistently with mathematical models. No model can consistently predict the future. It can't possibly be." The interview can be read here (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-math-beat-financial-markets/).
However, a more recent study conducted by the Univ of Iowa states that: ".....price movements can be predicted with a better than 50-50 accuracy for anywhere up to one minute after the stock leaves the confines of its bid-ask spread. Probabilities continue to be significant until about five minutes after it leaves the spread. By 30 minutes, the predictability window has closed..... While a 52 percent probability may not seem like much of a better probability than 50 percent, Street points out that in the ocean of data that is stock trading, it is a notable increase, and something that can be exploited." Source: here (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140203155046.htm). (Admittedly they're talking stocks, not forex).
Dr Jovan Tadic, of the Carnegie Institution for Science: "I will have to disappoint you. No matter how sophisticated prediction algorithm is used, the ability to predict will be limited by the quality of the training data. I personally have built several EA based on: Supervised Kohonen networks, Counter-propagation NNs, BackPropagation NNs, XY-fused nets, Geostatistical kriging, and SVM (support vector machine). Separate and combined. On 1D time chart all machine learning techniques give you ~52% win rate, which is not enough. However, the training data I used was based only on the history of observed currency pair. An inclusion of additional data would certainly help, as there are seasonal variations etc. SVM is slightly better than NNs. Variogram analysis shows that, although prices are correlated, CHANGES of prices are not, in other words, the relationship between past and future is described by non-stationary covariance structure (if one at all) which is a problem per se. I have an intuition that all small fishes get eventually robbed by larger players (banks) which can defend their position ad infinitum, and the first fluctuation will get them out of a losing trade. It is like cat walk system in roulette. Maybe you can exploit events caused by important news. Read interview and what happened with Olexand Tophylo and his machine learning methods. Pretty discouraging."
Ioannis Christou, of Athens Information Technology, concludes: "Trying to predict stock or instrument-related time-series (such as the various instruments in FOREX) using any statistical technique (including ANN, SVM etc.) will provide error tolerances that are simply too high to be useful for a trading system."
These are just a few examples (it's easy to find several more using Google), but to be fair, I'm not sure how relevant they are, given that we don't know eurusdd's method.
FWIW, and just for the record, do I believe that it's possible to be profitable trading forex? Absolutely (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7368552#post7368552)!
But is it possible to make factual statements like "there is exactly 73% probability that USDJPY will reach 103.440 within the next 30 minutes?". Well, what happens if there's an earthquake in New York, or a terrorist attack, or the BOJ suddenly decides to devalue the yen, or even if some high impact news announcement simply delivers an 'unexpected' result? Is it possible to make any prediction of "exactly X% probability" when markets are a mix of anonymous participants whose agendas are completely unknown to us? Even when patterns or phenomena apparently repeat themselves, they do so with very different sets of participants and orderflow. So surely the best we can do with past data is predict probable averages; something like "X% probability, but with a statistical error of Y%" would be somewhat more credible.
The idea that a given system should perform equally well on all timeframes is flawed IMO, as different TFs exhibit very different price patterns and behavior. Just as a couple of examples, news spikes and weekend gaps have relatively greater effect on shorter TFs; macroeconomic factors tend to play themselves out over longer TFs; longer TFs capture a greater (and hence more representative) cross-section of participants, hence the effect of collective averaging is greater; session considerations like banks being open or closed, causing different average price ranges for each session; etc etc.
But anyway, let's give eurusdd's Trade Explorer a chance to prove itself. I hope that he keeps it open for an absolute minimum of 12 months, and several hundred trades, to allow his indicator the opportunity to perform over a decent range of changing market conditions. Anything less than that would lack statistical validity IMO. I'm also curious to see what MAEs occur while price journeys to the predicted targets: as the pro traders keep telling us, risk management is more important than win rate.
- #137
- Edited 8:04pm Apr 6, 2014 7:44pm | Edited 8:04pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
Factor that level into your analysis and try to figure out - before it happens - why price must hit it!
- #138
- Apr 6, 2014 8:12pm Apr 6, 2014 8:12pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
4HR That level is a target level before that bar leaves your screen.
- #140
- Apr 7, 2014 4:20am Apr 7, 2014 4:20am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
The top level is completed. Be careful. the 1hr level is still valid!!! The bar is still on the screen! 