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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #13,961
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:57am Apr 4, 2014 1:57am
Quoting infinitus
One word of caution regarding longs here: on various TF's we do not see any convincing bullish divergences, do we?
No ... still no ... but I suppose it will apear near 1.3660 or so, at least on the lower TF's, then we need a bounce and more data (wait for b of the first up-leg on M15) to beging seen the rsi-divergences emerging from the lower TF to the higher TF
  • #13,962
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:20am Apr 4, 2014 2:20am
End of the quarter.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #13,963
  • Edited 4:36am Apr 4, 2014 2:44am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Thole, welcome here and thanks Hope your long gets filled I will stagger my buys in the 3675 to 3640 area

Thats good area to fill longs for EU, probably 3675 is best so that you dont miss in case if bounce is only gona come from there becouse thats fresh demand area.

Oh and guys dont forget CAD and NFP news today, hoping for impressive results (either way) so that it can be traded. Bullish CAD news could again give chance for daily wedge to be broken and GCAD trend also to resume up, bearish news will seal the deal and drop those bastards lower (60 pips and then bounce and then lower on UCAD).

GBPCHF higher on empty sup-dem zone, then down after fresh supply.
http://prntscr.com/36v3qr
  • #13,964
  • Apr 4, 2014 5:56am Apr 4, 2014 5:56am
audjpy pending short @ 96.50
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #13,965
  • Apr 4, 2014 9:12am Apr 4, 2014 9:12am
Hi Markus,

Hope you are fine.

The market is boring so I learn to surf the waves. My live counts in USDCH M5. Be lenient .
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,966
  • Apr 4, 2014 10:33am Apr 4, 2014 10:33am
Quoting maximinus
Hi Markus, Hope you are fine. The market is boring so I learn to surf the waves. My live counts in USDCH M5. Be lenient . {image}
New count. let's see. If wrong I'll stop, promise.
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,967
  • Apr 4, 2014 11:32am Apr 4, 2014 11:32am
So, let us begin buying at the 3625-3650 prices...
Hunting High and Low
  • #13,968
  • Apr 4, 2014 12:16pm Apr 4, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting selym_co
Hi infinitus , my daily chart study also tells me that the levels at around 3820-3840s shud be visited before a drop to 3610s. Showing ur market profile chart is a confirmation to my BUY orders.Thanks .. Regards... {image}

The downtrend which started from 3820-3840s was supposed to take longer time and reach 3610s. But its high momentum changed my expectations , and I realized my shorts when the price touched the circular support. I am sure we will have a counter attack by the bulls for a while which will carry the price max to 3800-3820s on monday , and that max reachable level will sink lower as time passes. And in case we see a reversal pattern , then it will be the beginning of the journey down to 3610s. God bless us ...

Regards...

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/7332/t734.png

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,969
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:29pm Apr 4, 2014 1:29pm
Doing a pre-week-close analysis (will be more complete at Sunday Open) ... on 60Min, we could see a retrace to 1.3740-60 zone ... and a final push lower to 1.3610-02 zone ... so will begin to build longs from 1.3650 as planned from 2 weeks ago ... this 240Min cycle could extend to 1.3550 zone ... but I doubt it will do that far, if it does ... better
  • #13,970
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:59pm Apr 4, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting maximinus
Hi Markus, Hope you are fine. The market is boring so I learn to surf the waves. My live counts in USDCH M5. Be lenient . {image}

Hi Maximinus,

hope you are fine as well

Nice to see you trying EW

When you start with EW, do not think about counting the waves on 5min chart or so. Start with the daily and weekly chart in order to get the idea where we are in the bigger scheme.

As a starter for UC:

the low at 0,8698 I do see as the most likely end of a corrective move down

the low at 0,7066 I see as the most likely end of a decades long down-trend

Can you make a count out of this?
  • #13,971
  • Apr 4, 2014 4:20pm Apr 4, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting rbetancor
Doing a pre-week-close analysis (will be more complete at Sunday Open) ... on 60Min, we could see a retrace to 1.3740-60 zone ... and a final push lower to 1.3610-02 zone ... so will begin to build longs from 1.3650 as planned from 2 weeks ago ... this 240Min cycle could extend to 1.3550 zone ... but I doubt it will do that far, if it does ... better
Let us assume, that we are in the wave 5 of 5 of 1 down now.

This wave 5 may be done already, or it will extend, then today was wave 1 of 5 of 5 of 1 (daily chart)

If this is true, then the downside targets could be easily in the 3570 range (+-10 pips)

3550 would be a nice Murrey target


From a volume distribution perspective we have no business zones (NBZ) at 3650, 3630 and 3616 (the first one is the strongest)

The next NBZ, which would be meaningful comes around 3533, followed with a heavy distribution zone at around 3516. So in this area we should see at least reaction to the upper side.

But that all leaves us with an inhomogeneous distribution zone spanning from 3533 to 3650, which is somewhat in need of volume fill


<judging from a VWAP MTF analysis, I would say, that it is tough now to get below 3650. The TF's below daily would need some ranging beforehand to bring the average VPO (or VWAP) more down.

When we take the 3650 out in a hurry, the implications could easily be, that we are strong trending and even deeper targets are then on the plate
  • #13,972
  • Apr 4, 2014 4:24pm Apr 4, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting selym_co
{quote} The downtrend which started from 3820-3840s was supposed to take longer time and reach 3610s. But its high momentum changed my expectations , and I realized my shorts when the price touched the circular support. I am sure we will have a counter attack by the bulls for a while which will carry the price max to 3800-3820s on monday , and that max reachable level will sink lower as time passes. And in case we see a reversal pattern , then it will be the beginning of the journey down to 3610s. God bless us ... Regards... {image}

if todays low was the end of wave 5 of 5 of 1, then we see easily 3794 to 3825, extended 3855 to 3885

confirmation of this view comes with movement above 3730
  • #13,973
  • Apr 4, 2014 4:27pm Apr 4, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} for me it points to 3672-3647 mainly

nice: 3672 was hit within a pip

the Murreys behave very well over the last weeks
  • #13,974
  • Apr 4, 2014 5:34pm Apr 4, 2014 5:34pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} if todays low was the end of wave 5 of 5 of 1, then we see easily 3794 to 3825, extended 3855 to 3885 confirmation of this view comes with movement above 3730
Well , what attracts my attention is the time+structure of the recent daily cycles. Without going too much back in time , the previous wave includes three candles to reach the top and three candles to reach the bottom. Assuming that the following uptrend will take three days to reach its target , my circles show a target around 3780s (+-10) . Still I cannot guess the momentum of this journey . In case we have a high momentum bull attack then the target will be around 3800-3820s which is a confirmed scenario with ur analysis (which I give the least possibility) . But yes,market can shock me

Here is the chart with an assumed uptrend for three days :

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/3530/h48d.png


On the larger scale I really expect deeper and deeper levels . But 3610-3590s must be a major support (which I think is Wave I of the downtrend).I still remember how price consolidated around 3590s , its really a high volume zone which has the potential to act as a decision zone in close future...

Regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,975
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:11am Apr 5, 2014 2:11am
Quoting selym_co
{quote} But 3610-3590s must be a major support (which I think is Wave I of the downtrend).I still remember how price consolidated around 3590s , its really a high volume zone which has the potential to act as a decision zone in close future... Regards...
from a volume analysis point of view the 3583 +/- 9 pips is an area with a peak-volume (look at the 864 days distribution) at the long time chart. But it is not really important, since the volume was within 1 standard deviation of the average volume

On the near term distribution (160 days time span) the 3591 lies within a broader distribution range

so out of my sight, the 3590 area will not lead to a sharp pullback, but most likely price may consolidate in this area

JMHO


But anyway: on my chart with manually drawn S/R lines I have a monthly support line at 3589 :-)


The game can be simple now:

when price moves a bit higher towards 3730, simply take shorts with SL just above 3731.

When 3731 is knocked out, we certainly will go higher. The 3784 marks the 38% retracement of the whole move down from the 396x top

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  • #13,976
  • Apr 5, 2014 3:07am Apr 5, 2014 3:07am
Just noticed that Auroracoin lost value compared to Bitcoin right from the start.

Reasons?


I do see the development of the Cryptos very critical. With dozens of different Cryptos, with thousands of crooks trying to enrich themselves unfairly, it seems to be a bad way to attract fresh blood.

I think it would have been much better to have only 2-5 Cryptos, with people working together to make it a safe currency and a trustful marketplace........
  • #13,977
  • Apr 5, 2014 4:47am Apr 5, 2014 4:47am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} from a volume analysis point of view the 3583 +/- 9 pips is an area with a peak-volume (look at the 864 days distribution) at the long time chart. But it is not really important, since the volume was within 1 standard deviation of the average volume On the near term distribution (160 days time span) the 3591 lies within a broader distribution range so out of my sight, the 3590 area will not lead to a sharp pullback, but most likely price may consolidate in this area JMHO But anyway: on my chart with manually drawn S/R lines I have a monthly...
A great roadmap ... I was preparing mushrooms for the breakfast , thats why I didnt write on time ... (by the way it was really delicious with some black pepper and some other spices)

Well...apart from all these things I think USDCHF is a good confirmation tool for us. At the moment it can easily be seen that there is an uptrend which will have a little pullback in the first a few days of the next week and then will continue its journey to higher levels. Which means : bearish EURUSD . So I totally agree with you about building shorts after 3730s.

Thanks , and regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,978
  • Apr 5, 2014 5:09am Apr 5, 2014 5:09am
Damn freaking EU triggered demand zone few hours before market close, didnt expect it so now it ruined long entry for next week.
http://prntscr.com/375mv4

Zyggy nice short there on 96.50, triggered up to pip. It should drop lower now 95.5, or if it goes higher again good short at 96.25.

selym_co What kind of radar equipment are you using for trading?
  • #13,979
  • Apr 5, 2014 5:19am Apr 5, 2014 5:19am
Quoting janpec1000
... selym_co What kind of radar equipment are you using for trading?
I never thought that it looks like a radar But yes , it does , I just noticed. I am just a student of Kambooj , I have been following his posts about circular trendlines for long while , and finally developped my own way of using them. So they are just Fibo Arcs in a circular form. 1,618 really works in an amazing way. Its an irreplacable tool for me. Still not holy grail ... but its really fun to decode the secret trends of the market and to witness they move in ratio (not always).

I check some threads regularly here on ff , and this thread is one of them , I think real radar equipment is the volume profile analysis that infinitus shares . I still do not know wheteher an ordinary trader like me can have access to volume profiles just like infinitus's posts.
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,980
  • Apr 5, 2014 5:56am Apr 5, 2014 5:56am
As far as EU goes... we hit our first support at 3671... first resistance to hit will be 3740... 3730 is nothing imo...

3740 should provide some scalp but i believe it'll break - real resistance is 3776... if we break 3790 then forget the downside... 3776 should hold for new lows..

and 3597 will support. this level may take us back into the 1.3850+

breaking 3597 area can lead us to 3380 and my final target of 1.3170 before new major highs... by that i mean 1.45 and 1.55 area

of course it might all just shoot up from here to infinity and beyond
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