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  • #121
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:34pm Apr 2, 2014 12:34pm
eur usd trading according to plan, which i highlighted previously.

we are doing test of 3580 - 3640 upon ecb and then we reverse on friday.

this eu scenario is confirmed by review of usdchf.

the usd chf eu mirror is in clear downtrend confirmed by a sequence of lower highs.

we can do one more test of upper trend line of the channel @ 8940-8980 and then reverse for 8550 in april 2014.

therefore, high probability trade is to also get short usdchf upon price reaching 8940-80 area, confirmed with h4 reversal
candles, final tp 8560

chart see below
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  • #122
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:55pm Apr 2, 2014 12:55pm
my reinforced long gu opinion. Do not short sell gu - short sell on your own risk.

spectral analysis cycle extraction on h1 point to further cycle upside @ 6770 initially.

this pair is strongly supported, trading above wp/mp/qp.
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  • #123
  • Apr 2, 2014 1:01pm Apr 2, 2014 1:01pm
update: My current fx positioning. gu call options 25 mln units. Strike 6610.
euau put options 10 mln units. Strike 4850. Expire 5th of may 2014.

good luck guys for the thursday-friday.
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  • #124
  • Apr 2, 2014 2:20pm Apr 2, 2014 2:20pm
eu usd game plan revised, prz on eu revised from 3580-3640

to 3640-3670. Upon reaching this zone look for a high probability of reversal for a tp @ 4040

please see below ssa cycle analysis on d1 eu charts.
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  • #125
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:39pm Apr 3, 2014 2:39pm
revised and updated game plan before nfp 04 04 2014

 

  1. eu waiting for a pullback to 3750-60 level and will buy 5 mln put option expire may-june 2014 - target 3300
  2. gu waiting for a pullback to 6615-20 level and will buy 5 mln put option expire may-june 2014 - target 6300

​closed my gu call options (25 mln) - 100k loss - done today

added to my eu au put options today - current exposure 25 mln euros - targeting 4200-4400 in april - ma 2014

reasoning for above trades:

1) usdx is strong on h1 and weekly charts - will post an update now
2) dollar though usually seasonally weak in april, is having a strong run - the nfp will be impacted by weather adjustments
3) ecb announcing plans for potential qe soon on eu
4) wolfe wave setup on eu d1 - final tp 3300
5) gu chart is very weak and can't find decent suppports - all rallies to 6660-6670 were sold off previoulsy

finally, eu au trade. Very simple. Eu going down to 3300. Au will either stay put or retrace to 9160-9180 and will then move to 9400-9500 due to stronger demand for commods from china. Au is the current winner, not selling off much on usdx strength.

  • #126
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:42pm Apr 3, 2014 2:42pm
here's my updated exposure. Currently 25 mln total. Looking to add 10 mln. Total will be 35 mln.
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  • #127
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:45pm Apr 3, 2014 2:45pm
usdx dollar index weekly chart review. Please note how price action respects strong orange support line.

could be aiming for the green resistance line now (eu projected @ 3200-3300 gu 6300-6400).
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  • #128
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:47pm Apr 3, 2014 2:47pm
worthwhile having a look at h1 usdx dollar index chart.

note how the dark cloud cover resistance now became support for the price.

dollar is very strongly supported below current levels. Very bullish indicator.
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  • #129
  • Apr 3, 2014 2:54pm Apr 3, 2014 2:54pm
complete game plan on gu for this friday. Wait for a pullback and short sell. Place protective sl @ 6650.
tp is red zone on the chart (+100-120 pips).
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  • #130
  • Apr 3, 2014 3:17pm Apr 3, 2014 3:17pm
my updated d1 eu chart review.

deeper downside possible @ 3200-3300.

see chart for more details.
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  • #131
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:30pm Apr 4, 2014 2:30pm
eur usd w1 chart review - we are still targeting 3300-3500 in april 2014.

 

  1. w1/d1 wolfe wave bearish pattern
  2. eu zone qe potential
  3. usd strenght - qe is rolled down
  4. ukraine still potential risk - risk off will have eu trading lower
  5. eu entered bearish price zooming area - meaning that the zone of 3300-3400-3900 usualy price will slide very fast the direction it entered the zone - currently we reversed @ the top at 3950-60 and have 3 red candles on weekly - bearish confirm - we are going to reach 3300-3400
  6. usdx strongly supported and in the bull mode now.

​

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  • #132
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:57pm Apr 4, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting ruffryders
revised and updated game plan before nfp 04 04 2014 eu waiting for a pullback to 3750-60 level and will buy 5 mln put option expire may-june 2014 - target 3300 gu waiting for a pullback to 6615-20 level and will buy 5 mln put option expire may-june 2014 - target 6300 ​closed my gu call options (25 mln) - 100k loss - done today added to my eu au put options today - current exposure 25 mln euros - targeting 4200-4400 in april - ma 2014 reasoning for above trades: 1) usdx is strong on h1 and weekly charts - will post an update now 2) dollar though...
my positioning update:

 

  1. this week took a loss on gu call options 100 000 usd
  2. today bought eu put options. Sold out - loss of 15 000 usd - replaced eu with au call options
  3. currently total exposure is 40 mln euros
  4. added to my eu au put options (eu au short) - total exposure 35 mln
  5. bought au 5 mln call options - australian dollar is poised for a huge run up in april 2014 (+300-500 pips to current)

  • #133
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:02pm Apr 4, 2014 3:02pm
to get a feeling for my reasons to heavily short eur aud, we need to review aud usd weekly chart.
please see below. Australian dollar is poised for a huge run up to 9600-9700 within 4-6 weeks.

au is -90% correlated to eu au - meaning that if au is up, eu au is down

here are key reasons for au run up

 

  1. carry trade - hedge funds are buying on margin to get positive interest
  2. this trade will last into 15th of may 2014 - when hedge funds and big boys will take their chips off the tables and head for summer holidays to south hampton / sardinia / etc
  3. japanese investors buying huge volumes of au govt debt - this is structural change - au poised to rise
  4. metals are rallying - see gold and platinum charts.

​overall au has further room to run up 300-400 pips, this means further 500-700 pips downside on eu au to current levels.

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  • #134
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:39pm Apr 4, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting ruffryders
to get a feeling for my reasons to heavily short eur aud, we need to review aud usd weekly chart. please see below. Australian dollar is poised for a huge run up to 9600-9700 within 4-6 weeks. au is -90% correlated to eu au - meaning that if au is up, eu au is down here are key reasons for au run up carry trade - hedge funds are buying on margin to get positive interest this trade will last into 15th of may 2014 - when hedge funds and big boys will take their chips off the tables and head for summer holidays to south hampton / sardinia /...
do you know how a large fund will gain carry? it sure as hell isn't via rolling spot FX

in fact, from larger names, getting carry can be negative for the price...

Also, don't even get me started on the correlation here... just incredible...
  • #135
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:47pm Apr 4, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} do you know how a large fund will gain carry? it sure as hell isn't via rolling spot FX in fact, from larger names, getting carry can be negative for the price... Also, don't even get me started on the correlation here... just incredible...
Jeremy you got anything substantial to contribute or just trying to play it smart ? Second option, then just move on please.
  • #136
  • Edited 5:07am Apr 5, 2014 4:26am | Edited 5:07am
asg corp fx summary for upcoming 4-6 weeks (position trades)

 

  1. gu - projected low 6480-6520 - projected high - 6800-6850 - strategy - long 6520 upon reversal tp 6840 sl 80 (70% probability)
  2. au projected low 9180 (possibly already in @ 9205) high 9520 - strategy buy on pullbacks (i'm long since 9280) (84% probability)
  3. eu projected low 3480-3520 projected high 4020 - strategy - long 3480-3520 upon reversal confirmation sl 100 tp1 3940 tp2 4040 (60-70% probability)
  4. gbpjpy projected low 169.80-170-40 - strategy - long 169.80-170.40 upon reversal confirmation tp1 174.40 tp2 175.20. (80% probability)

​

ps: sorry guys, revised down HIGH on GU. Had an error in my calculation. last updated 05/04/2014.
qqq
​
​

  • #137
  • Edited 12:23pm Apr 5, 2014 4:27am | Edited 12:23pm
quick reminder - above trades are position trades, and not day trades. They are best suited for options trading strategies.
trades will last 4-6 weeks if triggered.
  • #138
  • Apr 5, 2014 4:39am Apr 5, 2014 4:39am
eu d1 chart key update. The key support zone was already broker on euro @ 3790-3810, so
there is not question that eu will proceed lower toward final tp @ 3480-3520.

it can stage a lame pullback to 3740-60 area early next week, but that's about as much it will do, before going to 3600 and then 3500.

the primary idea here - short term - you can short sell for 3500-3540 and then look for a reversal and mid-term long trade on eu.

ps: why the key area on EU as per the chart is important ? Because it's downside triangle break out + price rejected by sequence of red candles @ D1 chart rejected at APRIL 2014 MP. This is important.
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  • #139
  • Apr 5, 2014 9:01am Apr 5, 2014 9:01am
posted my review on GU D1 in the cable thread. here's the link.

My preferred scenario - 6480-6520 reversal for 6850.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post7385762
  • #140
  • Apr 6, 2014 10:20am Apr 6, 2014 10:20am
i updated my price projection on euro d1 chart. Price will very likely test 3520 within next 4-8 days,
and then i'm looking for a reversal for 3900-4000.

area to watch 3500-3560. If price reverses here, very high probability trade - long eu - tp 1 3940 tp2 4040 sl 80 points.
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