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  • #241
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:54am Apr 3, 2014 6:54am
Quoting spaceduck
{quote} Yeah personally i'm heavily short from 1.3790, in 1 hour if the ecb don't lower rates, i will get out. Why, because i have a feeling that if the rates don't go down today, the eur will start an impressive rally. No matter what draghi will say in his speech, i guess in case he's not going to lower the rates he will say that they are ready to act that they have a wide options of actions, that the economy is going good, that 0,5% inflation is close to 2%, etc. I mean the market is not stupid, today is a big exam for the ecb credibility, if...
I would like to point out one thing. They are not gonna cut the rates unless and untill the Disinflation threatens the Price stability or becomes deflation-Waiting to get more clues from his speech
  • #242
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:58am Apr 3, 2014 6:58am
Quoting spaceduck
{quote} lol sorry i was being over-serious
peace
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #243
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:00am Apr 3, 2014 7:00am
Whatever, it seems they only know what they are going to do, so far trying to understand what they will do is a blind game, nobody know untill they do.

So let's get back to the only real thing, orderflows.

Eurusd:

The orderboard has slightly changed in the past hours, here we are:

Offers at 1.3967
Offers at 1.3819
Offers at 1.3771 (being tested now)
Current 1.3769
Bids at 1.3736
Bids at 1.3642
  • #244
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:15am Apr 3, 2014 7:15am
Quoting spaceduck
Whatever, it seems they only know what they are going to do, so far trying to understand what they will do is a blind game, nobody know untill they do. So let's get back to the only real thing, orderflows. Eurusd: The orderboard has slightly changed in the past hours, here we are: Offers at 1.3967 Offers at 1.3819 Offers at 1.3771 (being tested now) Current 1.3769 Bids at 1.3736 Bids at 1.3642
Not saying we'll get there, but just in case, huge stops are being built below 1.3735
  • #245
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:28am Apr 3, 2014 7:28am
2 minutes we will have flows on rock and roll ECB press conference + US reports
  • #246
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:35am Apr 3, 2014 7:35am
I have been Playing this doldrums since from last couple of weeks as US reports are suggesting Tapering side effects would like to see how it plays
  • #247
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:08am Apr 3, 2014 8:08am
Seems like we are going down at the end, i was stopped out at +1 at 1.3789.

Yet i managed to buy usdchf low, targeting now the offers at 0.8933 and above.

Good trading to everybody!
  • #248
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:19am Apr 3, 2014 8:19am
About the eur, eyes are now on the bids at 1.3642, probably will get hitten today.
  • #249
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:24am Apr 3, 2014 8:24am
Quoting spaceduck
About the eur, eyes are now on the bids at 1.3642, probably will get hitten today.
There are also some medium sized bids at 1.37 which might get consumer there are also some stops below it
  • #250
  • Apr 3, 2014 9:50am Apr 3, 2014 9:50am
Quoting grandia
NZDUSD is getting pretty interesting NZDUSD 3 april small offers at 0.857 large bids noted at 0.85 huge bids should be at 0.839 should 0.85 cleared I think it will classify NZDUSD as a false breakout
Bids don't get larger the further away from price they reside. Don't say huge bids unless fx dealers have names behind them, it's misleading to think that.
  • #251
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:33am Apr 3, 2014 11:33am
* eurusd *

reports of good sized offers at current levels 1.3711.


**considering that we have made already a 100pips swing today i'm not sure how much down we can go from here, i'm selling here by the way
  • #252
  • Edited 2:48pm Apr 3, 2014 2:18pm | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting spaceduck
Would you be able to make good trades knowing where institutional orders are, in advance? The answer is probably yes!
Considering what you understand by order flow, I think the right answer is no. First of all, order book (what you actually describe in your first post) is not the same with order 'flow'. Secondly, real money rarely disclose their stop and take profit levels. When they see price reaching a certain area they just get in touch with their broker and send new orders. Just ask yourself: why would you, as a market maker, give a better price to fill a position when you know it'll turn against you. It's clearly a conflict of interest and hedge funds have no reasons to make their limits known in advance to those who make the prices. Thirdly, and most important, liquidity creators (limit orders, bids, offers) are not the ones who make the market move, but liquidity eaters. And the last ones don't appear in any book. They act like unpredictable forces. Where it's a limit order, there surely is a stop order, cancelling each other out when hit. The size of stops and limits at different price levels is quite irrelevant because you just can't predict if the size of market orders sent at a specific time, taking the opposite side, will outrun the existing offer.

LE: And you also have to keep in mind that limits and stops can be pulled away at any time.
  • #253
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:24pm Apr 3, 2014 5:24pm
Usd/Cad order board heading in to Friday:

  1. Corporate & model bids 1.1010-1.0995. More corporate bids at 1.0980/60/50
  2. Barrier option at 1.100 still valid, vanilla strikes at 1.10 for Friday NY cut totaling over half a yard, option-related bids just under 1.100
  3. Model funds & momentum traders sell orders sub-1.0950.
  4. Offers in at 1.1075-1.1100

  • #254
  • Edited 11:46pm Apr 3, 2014 11:35pm | Edited 11:46pm
You should all stop wasting your time. As if anyone who has any real power in the FOREX market goes on forexfactory. Seriously... If you think this thread will be of value just stop trading.
  • #255
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:18am Apr 4, 2014 2:18am
*** 4 apr eurusd ***

Offers at 1.3819
Offers at 1.3805
Offers at 1.3722 (good size)
Offers at 1.3713
Current 1.3700
Bids at 1.3642 (good size)
Bids at 1.3476

I keep an eye on 1.3642 bids today.
  • #256
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:21am Apr 4, 2014 2:21am
Quoting spaceduck
Seems like we are going down at the end, i was stopped out at +1 at 1.3789. Yet i managed to buy usdchf low, targeting now the offers at 0.8933 and above. Good trading to everybody!
usdchf
Offers at 0.8933 starting to getting tested now.
  • #257
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:40am Apr 4, 2014 2:40am
Quoting spaceduck
** Euraud ** Big Offers meet at 1.4953 during asian session today. *Current: 1.4901 Next bids at 1.4801
About these 1.4801 bids, we got reports of a number of stops too on that area.
(translated: if you are looking to buy there, be a little bit careful. if you are looking to take profits there, nothing bad with it)
  • #258
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:43am Apr 4, 2014 2:43am
*** 4 apr gold ***

Offers at 1294.39
Offers at 1289.2 (just being tested now)
current 1289.55
small bids at 1286
small bids at 1284
bids at 1281, and stops below.

So fare i like these 1289.2 offers, opening a little sell right here
  • #259
  • Apr 4, 2014 6:45am Apr 4, 2014 6:45am
Quoting spaceduck
*** 4 apr gold *** Offers at 1294.39 Offers at 1289.2 (just being tested now) current 1289.55 small bids at 1286 small bids at 1284 bids at 1281, and stops below. So fare i like these 1289.2 offers, opening a little sell right here
Offers at 1294.39 being tested now.
  • #260
  • Apr 7, 2014 2:57am Apr 7, 2014 2:57am
pretty quiet FX. Time to read. Danske Bank Daily
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