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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #13,921
  • Edited 11:06am Apr 2, 2014 10:53am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Completely agree regarding bank calls. I think we all remember the Stolper calls from GS LOL Regarding rate cut: I think they will try to talk the EU down. If they cut now, they have not much of ammunition left...... When can we start to short the SP500? Any opinion? The daily volume gets now really anaemic.......
got out of all shorts (EUR/USD) this morning scaling in sm longs just in case......kinda sell the rumor buy the fact...lets c what the fact is......
  • #13,922
  • Apr 2, 2014 10:57am Apr 2, 2014 10:57am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Completely agree regarding bank calls. I think we all remember the Stolper calls from GS LOL Regarding rate cut: I think they will try to talk the EU down. If they cut now, they have not much of ammunition left...... When can we start to short the SP500? Any opinion? The daily volume gets now really anaemic.......
Ye i was looking into shorting of SP500 1 month ago, but my broker doesnt support it and minimum lot is 1 which is OK for me but not ok for shorting of bullish instrument like that which could easily get you hundreds of pips of DD before that collapse really comes, or even down swing in some cases.
In any case if those are investment banks building shorts for bubble pop its out of option for me or probably many other investors to do that becouse DD can be massive before we see that pop, and certainly i wouldnt short for possible bubble pop with FED still printing. And i am certain those are not short term trades who are trading tops or higher highs becouse that is very small portion of trades. So the question is what this volume represents.
  • #13,923
  • Apr 2, 2014 11:05am Apr 2, 2014 11:05am
Not bad ... not good ... positive on the day .. but lost 30 pips during the news, I didn't expect a so long move to the downside ...

Now evaluating if 1.3835-1.3866 it's still possible as final push ... before continue to the downside ... as far as this H4 candle close over 1.3766 ... still possible
  • #13,924
  • Apr 2, 2014 11:17am Apr 2, 2014 11:17am
Bugger it!
EURUSD Long @ 1.3762
~1.3660 seems to be the daily support line.
  • #13,925
  • Apr 2, 2014 11:22am Apr 2, 2014 11:22am
EURUSD
Weekly could go more down but monthly's upward trend should be strong enough till 1.45/1.48 before autumn 2014.
  • #13,926
  • Apr 2, 2014 11:53am Apr 2, 2014 11:53am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD Daily seems okay for some longs now @ 1.376 with a target ~1.3810. The market price could struggling around the resistance line (2014.3.18/24/31) a little bit longer. See also the positive diveregence. FXcube {image}

I think we have a high chance of tracing out a complex correction here.

The structure from the low at around 370x seems to be an ABC-x-ABC up for wave W, now down in corrective wave Y, ideally to around 3733 to 3748, then up to around 3825 to 3855 in wave Z

A break below the low at 370x will negate this view
  • #13,927
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:02pm Apr 2, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting rbetancor
Hi all, We could have a re-test of the 1.3790-1.3811 zone ... with an extension to 1.3826 zone ... before begining a 3W drop to 1.36556-1.36034 zone Let's see what London have to us! Good luck to all! {image}

Hi rbetancor

per your analyze market very accurate , Can you explain how you the analyze the path ?
  • #13,928
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:06pm Apr 2, 2014 12:06pm
EW for EU 4h TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,929
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:09pm Apr 2, 2014 12:09pm
EU volume profiles

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  • #13,930
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:24pm Apr 2, 2014 12:24pm
Is the UN eager to lose all the credibility? Inquiring minds want to know?




Fukushima radiation ‘unlikely’ to increase cancer rates – UN report 15
  • #13,931
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:32pm Apr 2, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting bugkeab
{quote} Hi rbetancor per your analyze market very accurate , Can you explain how you the analyze the path ?
I use a customized system, based on EW MTF and MM MTF, I analyze on the higher timeframe, then scale in to the lower, have an 81% win rate, when I do the 'magic' ... I get a picture of the possible moves, with % of probabilities ... then do a correlation with the analysis of other currencies and take an 'action plan', and follow it strictly, it's the only way to sucess

Today ... -30 pips in one op, because I was expecting a bounce from 1.3780-1.3770 area ... and that din't happen, soo ... -30 ... but on the day, overall of +68 due to good results on silver
  • #13,932
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:38pm Apr 2, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting infinitus
Is the UN eager to lose all the credibility? Inquiring minds want to know? Fukushima radiation ‘unlikely’ to increase cancer rates – UN report 15


The Japs must have given the UN some bakshish" (bribe) that would explain it ....
  • #13,933
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:47pm Apr 2, 2014 12:47pm
Next trade ... could be possible .. long silver arround 19.96-19.90 as first entry ... 19.83-19.81 ... with TG 20.40, SL 19.75

Let's see if chance got filled
  • #13,934
  • Apr 2, 2014 4:01pm Apr 2, 2014 4:01pm
That is the most important topic I am worrying about since a few years


Half of European bumblebees in decline, quarter face extinction – study 7


Can you imagine what will happen to the human species when the bees are extincted?
  • #13,935
  • Apr 2, 2014 4:08pm Apr 2, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting infinitus
That is the most important topic I am worrying about since a few years Half of European bumblebees in decline, quarter face extinction – study 7 Can you imagine what will happen to the human species when the bees are extincted?
Less bee stings and no honey for my tea?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,936
  • Apr 2, 2014 4:14pm Apr 2, 2014 4:14pm
Posible path for tomorrow ...

Down till 1.3739-1.3720 zone, rally up till 1.38352-1.38668, finishing double H1 up-corrective-move, then 3W down (240Min based) to 1.36319-1.35529

Timewise analysis tells me ... that 1.38352-1.38668 should be reached in 24-48h

Correlated ... as soon as USDJPY enter 104.21-104.93 (equal legs and 1.236 ext), EU will be ready for the double correction (240Min based) from 1.3835-1.3863 to 1.36319-1.35529

That double correction ... will put us ... timewise ... in April 14th-16th, finishing 240-480Min correction and begining a new cycle ... to 1.4X

This is BTP, so trade with care and don't be caught
  • #13,937
  • Apr 3, 2014 1:43am Apr 3, 2014 1:43am
Lets try another long range trade.
USDJPY long @ 104.00 SL 102.50 TP1 110.60 TP2 124.00
Reasons:
- Since "the only game in town is stocks" and this pair is a very strong support of it
- Very powerful momentum. On my daily chart all indies point down but price went through resistance, trend line, against divergence and so on. Therefore I put my indi of this pair off.
See also http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...2nd-april-2014
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyweekly.png Size: 76 KB
Price comes first; fundamentals come second
  • #13,938
  • Apr 3, 2014 3:33am Apr 3, 2014 3:33am
Vladimir strikes back:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...oil-goods-deal

Even that Iran was not on petrodollar since few years that should have impact, it could seal deal with other countries or even Russia itself. Since USA is pushing Russia so confidently i am wondering if there is war knocking on Irans and Syria door right now so that they know they are going to overtake petrodollars. Certainly Israels provocative attacks and Turkeys false flag fighter yet tells that.

UCAD likely to fall.
http://prntscr.com/36ktgg
GCAD fallen lower like shown on yesterdays analysis, staying out now.
  • #13,939
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:02am Apr 3, 2014 7:02am
Quoting rbetancor
Posible path for tomorrow ... Down till 1.3739-1.3720 zone, rally up till 1.38352-1.38668, finishing double H1 up-corrective-move, then 3W down (240Min based) to 1.36319-1.35529 Timewise analysis tells me ... that 1.38352-1.38668 should be reached in 24-48h Correlated ... as soon as USDJPY enter 104.21-104.93 (equal legs and 1.236 ext), EU will be ready for the double correction (240Min based) from 1.3835-1.3863 to 1.36319-1.35529 That double correction ... will put us ... timewise ... in April 14th-16th, finishing 240-480Min correction and begining...
Jejeje ... I love when I get home and see that all have go as expected ...
  • #13,940
  • Apr 3, 2014 9:32am Apr 3, 2014 9:32am
AudJpy Sell @ 96.05 target 93.75
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price comes first; fundamentals come second
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