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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #45,501
  • Apr 1, 2014 11:24am Apr 1, 2014 11:24am
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} Thanks Fti i see that now. You also mention the range 1.3895 to 1.3915?
Hey Acs, i shall attempt. however please take note this is on highsight and thus it is dangerous because:

1. There is retrospective distortion - meaning it is easier to find explaination for something after it happens
2. Over valuing of factual interpretation and getting trapped in what you observe and neglecting the not observed and unobersevables

with reference to the attached chart:

1. presence of special variant of H&S contained in symmetric triangle. H&S is bearish. note neckline is also lower boundary of sys triangle
2. impulse downwards from sys triangle via H&S neckline at 1.3915 piercing through 1.3895 which is prior spt
3. direct ans to fti qns is that 1.3915 is where the run started before hitting 1.3815 and it pierce through spt at 1.3895 where new unfortunate plp would have likely bought in due to it being spt. thus, there are positions in that range there which are stucked and is now all bad as impulse gave no chance for position liquidate.
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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #45,502
  • Apr 1, 2014 4:53pm Apr 1, 2014 4:53pm
Thanks Jacque for your kind explaination. I am lost as a bat before that, now, i have some clue.

Yesterday, was not a good trading day, alot of rush and a few bad decisions spoils the whole day. Had a quick sleep and woke up early to re-read my notes and retrospect about the things(shit) i have done.

While unwinding, I chanced upon this article. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...ushpmg00000063
I feel its a good read guys, question & believe.

-yawnz goarns / back to scrapbook, gona go into exile, in stalking mode-
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #45,503
  • Apr 2, 2014 7:03am Apr 2, 2014 7:03am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Acs_112 longs trapped at top of big drop, look at hourly (i believe it to be). regards Phil.
Thanks Phill, Think i was trying to over analyse the situation.
  • #45,504
  • Apr 2, 2014 10:07am Apr 2, 2014 10:07am
Quoting fti
This is different for trader who , chose their positions. The fact that, their chosing of the trade, is an interplay of hope and expectations, grounded on whatever the analysis for the taking of the position in the first instance. Analysis is a complex thought process and should be only done within the time window of the chosen time frame. and in accordance with the chosen Modus operandi. The resultant of that analysis is a binary resolve. When a position is establish, most traders instead of continuously probing to find time window (opening), if...
good day.....i must say i find this thread very educative..............i found this thread a couple of weeks back but due to time constrain...........could not really explore it............so i started two day ago...and i must say am overwhelmed.........above is a quote of you about hope............as i must be sincere i am also a victim of it.am just working on it.and my time is really off..............I want to ask when do you know you window,that is your time is up,time to exit..............i mean.i feel if a trader can tell this,.......then there would be little or no hope in is equation................
  • #45,505
  • Apr 2, 2014 11:27am Apr 2, 2014 11:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} this was fast market zone. so no substance lots scalping. if they can hold down ,may buy enough time mama usd bull show up. is hard to be long currencies here. althought is the in thingy now. need wait see if have another wave. small small is ok. sell house attempts should be avoided. if i trading , would probably be scalping as well. is the safer option. the buying usd is real. the buying euro seems only scalpings. Big money scalpings. regards {image}
Spot on, Chief!
  • #45,506
  • Apr 2, 2014 11:51am Apr 2, 2014 11:51am

WOW
LONG DEEP SLEEP
best ever.
wondered if my body wondered i ever coming back.
probably not.
  • #45,507
  • Edited 12:05pm Apr 2, 2014 11:55am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting fti
WOW LONG DEEP SLEEP best ever. wondered if my body wondered i ever coming back. probably not.
2 set good usd figs
soft data employment is on track. friday unemployment will tell if confirms.
factory orders improved.

who the jim beans invented all these figs.
now you cannot lie to the peeps anymore.
they can know.
otherwise they all at their casinos.

funny pattern
right shoulder droops and carrys.
the euro bulls may have lost lots hoping?
cable bulls not so pessimistic.
nevertheless.
but who wants piss against the wind.
may get splashed all over.
  • #45,508
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:02pm Apr 2, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting fti
{quote} 2 set good usd figs soft data employment is on track. friday unemployment will tell if confirms. factory orders improved. who the jim beans invented all these figs. now you cannot lie to the peeps anymore. they can know. otherwise they all at their casinos.



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  • #45,509
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:08pm Apr 2, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHNNMj5bNQw V
will watch in the morning, my friend , thanks.

cannot go wake mom up in middle of night borrow phone.


but if you like.
i listening Susan Wong dang sad song. winner takes it all. not so much rage as abba.

regards
  • #45,510
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:18pm Apr 2, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting fti
{quote} will watch in the morning, my friend , thanks. cannot go wake mom up in middle of night borrow phone. but if you like. i listening Susan Wong dang sad song. winner takes it all. not so much rage as abba. regards
Sure chief

I am gonna listen to it in meanwhile for u
  • #45,511
  • Edited 12:33pm Apr 2, 2014 12:20pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Sure chief I am gonna listen to it in meanwhile for u
ooops actually not so good choice.
with the lady not home.
but is my playlist. all mine.

is actually not a sad song, is reality song.
but her interpretation dang sad feel only.

regards
  • #45,512
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:27pm Apr 2, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ooops actually not so good choice. with the lady not home. but is my playlist. regards

lets add some

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  • #45,513
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:36pm Apr 2, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} lets add some https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdubeMFwuGs V

i'll have big playlist in the morning then.




regards
  • #45,514
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:49pm Apr 2, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting fti
{quote} i'll have big playlist in the morning then. regards

:hugs:

lets roll

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  • #45,515
  • Apr 2, 2014 1:21pm Apr 2, 2014 1:21pm
whats new else chief....

i am just listening some nice music...was able to get some Dac that can play 24 192 and listening some nice spanish guitars.....

what a bliss is in music...

i am thinking it does rewire some connection in brain??

V
  • #45,516
  • Edited 2:33pm Apr 2, 2014 1:57pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
whats new else chief.... i am just listening some nice music...was able to get some Dac that can play 24 192 and listening some nice spanish guitars..... what a bliss is in music... i am thinking it does rewire some connection in brain?? V
oh ok, newly rewired brain.
nice.
planning sell your old dac?

normally i listened 16/96
now i naughty 32/192 and still cannot get analog quality

may like try 32/384 some time. if have time.
but i somewhatresigned to the fact cannot get whats missing back on.
interpolating for lost info just not seems ever going get whats missing back.
easy way is go back vinyl but that material is hard to get.
They killed that technology for the cheap digital. The stuff you calls pono.
guess, ponographic stuff is hard to maintain.
everyone loves cheap and easy. is industries wide, all
and tape decks is cumbersome as gell.
so digital. but digital is nothing better is hard find lost bits.

is like price charts.
if i took hourly charts and try intepolate 5 mins charts.
i just kidding myself.isn't it?

but smart kids, they mp3 use daily charts can interpolate 5 mins charts.
surely need rewire their brains already.

in fact if i substituted all the intepolated bits with pure sinc a wave.
I would quit listening music and listen my dogs bark instead.

regards
  • #45,517
  • Edited 3:03pm Apr 2, 2014 2:53pm | Edited 3:03pm
i mean pure sine a wave.
Its not working.
and this scripting shit with ff site is giving my systems lots hell.
maybe i should just follow God's lead and leave mankind to their own shit.
too much deceptions and lies.


regards
  • #45,518
  • Apr 2, 2014 3:11pm Apr 2, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting fti
{quote} oh ok, newly rewired brain. nice. planning sell your old dac? normally i listened 16/96 now i naughty 32/192 and still cannot get analog quality may like try 32/384 some time. if have time. but i somewhatresigned to the fact cannot get whats missing back on. interpolating for lost info just not seems ever going get whats missing back. easy way is go back vinyl but that material is hard to get. They killed that technology for the cheap digital. The stuff you calls pono. guess, ponographic stuff is hard to maintain. everyone loves...

yup i always ell old dac after ia m happy with my new dac for long enough time....i generally go to beach to listen the waves only....best and clear music for that

V
  • #45,519
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:04pm Apr 2, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting fti
WOW LONG DEEP SLEEP best ever. wondered if my body wondered i ever coming back. probably not.
please can you check post 45,505....or did i ask a wrong question...........................
  • #45,520
  • Edited 9:34pm Apr 2, 2014 9:15pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} please can you check post 45,505....or did i ask a wrong question...........................
don't worry about wrong questions.
no ones got right answers anyway.

your question about time window expiry.

time window is expectations.
is sort of bias on market feels.

How to know when bail out?
if your girlfriend expected shows up at 7pm.
and if no show by 7:15 how do you feel?
if no shows at 7:30 how do you feel?
if no shows at 8 how do you feel?
if no shows at 9 what would you do?

does that answer your question?
but of course is hard bail out if you not prepared parachute.
having extra gfs, that seldom helps.
but of course if you diehard on the girl.
Then you probably dieed-ed.
This just thought leads.
don't always think of girls, sometimes think markets.
without the dough (buy flowers (diamonds)) mostly gets no girls, only women nagging (rants?, maybe songs (mostly about how good you (really)are)).
Just jesting, but answer to you question is somewhere in this post. I think.

regards

watch out those euro crosses.
smethings in hot tub again.
seems someone' moving cable goal post.
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