Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 209 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,161
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:27am Mar 28, 2014 5:27am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Congratulations on your short on EURUSD. The only thing on that short is that you went against the rules. MN is up, WK is up, D1 is up and that H4 area you took is not valid supply because it didn't remove any demand. Glad that you had profit though! I just wanted to let you know that you didn't follow the rules. Winning is not the purpose, following the rules will make you profitable in the long run though. Your entry has already been overshot I believe, you were going against the trend and that's what usually happens when you go counter...
I cancelled that trade the other day, I closed my D1 long for a very small profit when I saw what was going on.

  1. Price is bouncing off WK supply, non-fresh but weekly supply. It looks like it's reacting strongly and below we have stacked of non-fresh D1 demand zones
  2. Stacked areas of non-fresh D1 demand zones on EURUSD. Latest ascendinig TL joining last 2 valleys was broken by bearish red candle with yellow arrow. I was triggered long and price did nothing for a feew days, so I closed it since we were bouncing of WK supply
  3. My D1 demand entry would still be alive since I use 25 pips padding, but I closed it and decided not to take any more longs for all the reasons explained above
  4. After some days of doing nothing and that break established with WK supply in control, I closed it and I am not taking more longs
  5. We are within WK demand area, so IF we get a nice new area of demand formed that removes supply then I will be thinking of longs, I will watch that

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,162
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:31am Mar 28, 2014 5:31am
Quoting apereiro
Hi Alfonso Thanks for your last reponse. Already in my comments on the previous pair I looked strange . Today I tried to analyze the AUDUSD and I hope that it is better made than the last one. According to the analysis made, I ​​think than: AUDUSD Monthly is downtrend AUDUSD Daily is uptrend AUDUSD 4h is uptrend I hope your comments about the analysis made, Thanks for everything {image} {image} {image}
Awesome my friend, you've done a great analysys, MUCH BETTER. Congratulations! I don't see anything wrong on your analysis.

Just one thing. The MN supply zone does not comply with one of the rules, a minimum 2:1 RR imbalance. So that MN supply zone should be purple, waiting for confirmation inside of it for a short. It's in fact MN supply but it does not comply with the RR imbalance. Hope that it makes sense, price is fractal so it does not matter the TF we look at, a 2:1 RR must be there to have it validated

Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,163
  • Edited 9:54am Mar 28, 2014 7:17am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting rohule
Alfonso, Thank you for taking time of reading me, i thougth it was only fresh because the price hits higher, in this new pic i drow the demmand zone correctly, and i want to share my lastest trade on usdcad. Cheers {image} {image}
Hello rohule

I was was watching those two pairs and I think two things in both pairs:
- The TL are not good, and you forgot to draw some levels.
In EURCAD the red level that you drew (54), have been absorbed, then it does not exist
Then, you are not with the rules.

You can see the images bellow and it may be than you think something different. I only tried to help and I wait to Alfonse reponse. Itīs sure it will be better than mine.

Excuse me for my bad English.
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  • #4,164
  • Mar 28, 2014 6:49pm Mar 28, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting apereiro
{quote} Hello rohule I was was watching those two pairs and I think two things in both pairs: - The TL are not good, and you forgot to draw some levels. In EURCAD the red level that you drew (54), have been absorbed, then it does not exist Then, you are not with the rules. You can see the images bellow and it may be than you think something different. I only tried to help and I wait to Alfonse reponse. Itīs sure it will be better than mine. Excuse me for my bad English. {image} {image} {image}

thank you, i will keep that in mind

have a good one
passion and discipline
  • #4,165
  • Mar 30, 2014 9:36am Mar 30, 2014 9:36am
I missed the trade. but i am waiting for new supply area to get enter the trade. Alfonso please have a look into my chart. and correct me if am wrong. my trendlines and zones are drawn correctly?

Monthly:

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Weekly:

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Daily:

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  • #4,166
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:43pm Mar 30, 2014 2:43pm
Hello, i need an SD indicator for forex tester 2. Any of you have something like this? Thanks!
  • #4,167
  • Edited 2:15am Mar 31, 2014 1:59am | Edited 2:15am
Quoting Solomon1a
I missed the trade. but i am waiting for new supply area to get enter the trade. Alfonso please have a look into my chart. and correct me if am wrong. my trendlines and zones are drawn correctly? Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image}

  1. There were 2 Valid ascending TLs on the way up. The blue one you have painted is incorrect, you didn't follow the rules. Why? The secon valley DID NOT make a high high than the previous valley's second leg (you can see the high with the red arrow)
  2. There are some levels you're missing as you can see, and 1 level not correctly painted
  3. Similar things happen on the D1 and WK charts with TLs and levels
  4. You are not using the last Rectangle Reader Extender indicator, seeing the 50% candles will help you a lot identifying levels as well. You need to fill up the form in post #1 in order to get the link to download it

Follow the rules Don't just read them, understand them and apply them


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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,168
  • Mar 31, 2014 6:34am Mar 31, 2014 6:34am
Dear Sir,

Downloaded your webinar & watched it carefully. That is very good & informative webinar. You also let the viewers know that rules are key, they must be followed with atmost accuracy.


Looking forward for more webinars from you on the topic & specially on the entry techniques.
Thanks for your great efforts sir.
Keep it up.

Sanjay
  • #4,169
  • Mar 31, 2014 3:58pm Mar 31, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} There were 2 Valid ascending TLs on the way up. The blue one you have painted is incorrect, you didn't follow the rules. Why? The secon valley DID NOT make a high high than the previous valley's second leg (you can see the high with the red arrow) There are some levels you're missing as you can see, and 1 level not correctly painted Similar things happen on the D1 and WK charts with TLs and levels You are not using the last Rectangle Reader Extender indicator, seeing the 50% candles will help you a lot identifying levels as well. You need...
Thanks for your reply Alfonso, i got your all point but which blue level is painted incorrect can you tell me?
  • #4,170
  • Apr 1, 2014 8:41pm Apr 1, 2014 8:41pm
Dear Sir

Just found this forum and Igot interested.But now I have to make a lot reading and watching the video to absorbed the concept and hopefully can contribute to this community in the near future.

Good work and thank you for the time being
  • #4,171
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:43am Apr 2, 2014 12:43am
Quoting mdradzi
Dear Sir Just found this forum and Igot interested.But now I have to make a lot reading and watching the video to absorbed the concept and hopefully can contribute to this community in the near future. Good work and thank you for the time being
Take your time my friend, take your time, it's gonna take you a few weeks but worth every hour!
Have a nice day!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,172
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:00pm Apr 2, 2014 12:00pm
A new version of Rectangle Reader indicator has been released, Version 3.2.1. This version is just a quick fix for lower timeframes zones that will fix problems for those that do intraday and scalping.

  1. The trendlines painted on on H1, M30, M15 and M5 rectangles did not show the description for those timeframes when you placed your mouse over them
  2. The M30 supply zones did not have the trendlines painted on the proximal and distal lines

I've just updated the normal version, not the white background version since this new version is not a major fix, just those issues for intraday traders. You can find the new indicator attached to this post, it's also available in the first post.

All those who had already signed up to the mailing list at http://www.set-and-forget.com/ will have received the download link.
Thanks a lot for your support, enjoy the new updated indicator!

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,173
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:49am Apr 3, 2014 6:49am
Hi Alfonso, how much wiggle and padding do I need to add for position trades on the daily TF please ? Wiggle room we can set for different TF's in rectangle reader settings but padding I believe we cant. Thx for your help
  • #4,174
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:47am Apr 3, 2014 7:47am
Quoting philbri
Hi Alfonso, how much wiggle and padding do I need to add for position trades on the daily TF please ? Wiggle room we can set for different TF's in rectangle reader settings but padding I believe we cant. Thx for your help
Padding is always the same for any TF. Wiggle room for majors and cross pairs is 25 pips, exotics, different for indexes and other intruments.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,175
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:50am Apr 3, 2014 7:50am
Hello fellow trader!

There is a new supply and demand live webinar planned for next Wednesday 9th April. If you are already part of the mailing list, check your inbox because the link should be there already, else fill in this form to join if you haven't previously done it.

  1. DATE: next Wednesday 9th April 2014
  2. TIME: 1 PM to 3 PM Central European Time | 7 AM to 8:30 AM EST. Right 1 hour before NY Market Open
  3. LINK TO JOIN: you need to fill in this form to join if you haven't previously done it http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

You can join now, you will automatically notified 1 day and 1 hour before it's held


WHAT WILL THIS WEBINAR COVER?

  1. How to validate supply and demand levels
  2. How to draw a trendline to validate a trend
  3. When to negate a trendline and filter out supply and demand levels
  4. What questions to ask yourself and the charts

This is part of the basics, but I've learnt that the basics have to be REPEATED OVER AND OVER again. We all think we know the basics but most of the time we forget to ask the right questions to ourselves and to the charts. You will get the right answers if you know which questions you have to ask.


See you at the webinar. The webinar will be recorded as always.

Have a great day!
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,176
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:34am Apr 3, 2014 11:34am
Hi Alfonso

I would like you could give me your opinion about XAUUSD. I have been wathching it and I think than we must wait because there is not position in any timefrime.

Allover in 4H, I donīt know if I forgot to draw some level . I think than there are too many levels .

I hope your opinión about it. Thanks for all.
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  • #4,177
  • Apr 3, 2014 11:47am Apr 3, 2014 11:47am
Hi Alfonso,

A quick question about one of the images on post #1. Where you say 'Price drops creating new H4 supply level', that levels doesn't seem to have removed previous demand before it is used as an entry. Have I misunderstood something here?

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Many thanks,

TzK.
  • #4,178
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:33pm Apr 3, 2014 7:33pm
Quote
Hi Alfonso,

A quick question about one of the images on post #1. Where you say 'Price drops creating new H4 supply level', that levels doesn't seem to have removed previous demand before it is used as an entry. Have I mi

If you look from the left of the chart,the new high(supply zone) begin the rally down and create new low and break the previous low(demand zone) and now the supply level can be validated..that what I understood reading that chart
  • #4,179
  • Apr 3, 2014 10:22pm Apr 3, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting tzkennedy
Hi Alfonso, A quick question about one of the images on post #1. Where you say 'Price drops creating new H4 supply level', that levels doesn't seem to have removed previous demand before it is used as an entry. Have I misunderstood something here? {image} Many thanks, TzK.
hI,

If we are at the extremes in the curve (D1 supply fresh zone, it doest not apply to non-fresh zones) we won't need that the new lower timeframe supply (H4 in this case) takes out previous H4 Demand area for our entries, since the D1 supply is fresh. If the D1 supply was not fresh then we'd need that previous demand to be removed before the brand new supply is considered for a confirmation type of trade.
  • #4,180
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:01am Apr 4, 2014 1:01am
Quoting tzkennedy
Hi Alfonso, A quick question about one of the images on post #1. Where you say 'Price drops creating new H4 supply level', that levels doesn't seem to have removed previous demand before it is used as an entry. Have I misunderstood something here? Many thanks, TzK.
Quoting negi_29
{quote} hI, If we are at the extremes in the curve (D1 supply fresh zone, it doest not apply to non-fresh zones) we won't need that the new lower timeframe supply (H4 in this case) takes out previous H4 Demand area for our entries, since the D1 supply is fresh. If the D1 supply was not fresh then we'd need that previous demand to be removed before the brand new supply is considered for a confirmation type of trade.
Yes, exactly like that my friend That's the rule when we are in a trending market and there is a fresh HTF level to lean on but no clear lower timeframe level to lean on for s short (in this case).

As you can see on the charts, the demand level to remove was way down, it was eventually removed and then price retraced to the upper level where we should have gone short and dropped again on the retest. It eventually removed demand but the rule states that. Like I always say, do NOT believe me, test it over and over again for hundreds of time to see how it works and build the confidence to trade this kind of setups.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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