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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #45,421
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:36pm Mar 28, 2014 11:36pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, thanks fti, just to give back to the thread, I have created an additional attack strategy to complement overnight positions that can be implemented on top of fti's attack sequence. Suppose you have 100troops in battle, and you have conducted a successful campaign, and have taken profits on 90 of the troops, and am interested in leaving 10 of the troops in battle to bring in more foreign capital, suppose you are long on the position, and already in profits there is an option strategy that lets you protect your position by using a protective...
No intra or extra polation helps. Logically, it should not. All one needs is not a winning attitude but attitude of a winner ............. there is great difference in these two.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #45,422
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:53pm Mar 28, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} No intra or extra polation helps. Logically, it should not. All one needs is not a winning attitude but attitude of a winner ............. there is great difference in these two.
hi Chicky,

it is about expectation management and know what to do when to do, and what does or does not make sense, only by extrapolating all scenarios( the market going up or down or range) and thinking how you should react to the circumstances that matter, it is very similar to games like go or chess, where u are managing expectations and misexpectations and know how to manage them that makes you a winner, not a case of an attitude of a winner, simply having an attitude does not make you good, its the MO and management and knowing what to do, when to do that makes the difference. Never consider yourself a winner, less the ego gets to your head, always ask what can be done better and improve it.

Just my 2cents, perhaps lets agree to disagree on this part.
  • #45,423
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:24am Mar 29, 2014 12:24am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi Chicky, it is about expectation management and know what to do when to do, and what does or does not make sense, only by extrapolating all scenarios( the market going up or down or range) and thinking how you should react to the circumstances that matter, it is very similar to games like go or chess, where u are managing expectations and misexpectations and know how to manage them that makes you a winner, not a case of an attitude of a winner, simply having an attitude does not make you good, its the MO and management and knowing what...
We are not agreeing on diasgreeing. I 100% agree with you. Extrapolation / Fib-extention or whatever similar tools one uses are very important. The only issue is how we use these tools. I know an asshole, his name is Thomas M. Gregory, he lives in Atlanta. He is not only an asshole but a totally useless person with no brains. Amazingly, he is trading stocks for decades with good success. I studied his methods and found out that he would only buy and never short-sell a stock. Plus he would set a tp and never sl. His tps are based on extrapolation. My only difference of opinion, if any (I am not sure), with you is that projected levels should be for exits from PROFITABLE trades and never for entries.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #45,424
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:33am Mar 29, 2014 12:33am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} We are not agreeing on diasgreeing. I 100% agree with you. Extrapolation / Fib-extention or whatever similar tools one uses are very important. The only issue is how we use these tools. I know an asshole, his name is Thomas M. Gregory, he lives in Atlanta. He is not only an asshole but a totally useless person with no brains. Amazingly, he is trading stocks for decades with good success. I studied his methods and found out that he would only buy and never short-sell a stock. Plus he would set a tp and never sl. His tps are based on extrapolation....
Hi, Chicky,

I think you have misunderstood me, I do not use extrapolation to define where to take profit or not, I use extrapolation of possibility of direction of movements and ways to mitigate or make use of that to decide how best to manage the current situation, the current situation allows me an opportunity to profit even more when the price moves against my underlying spot position, essentially, its a win more or win less situation. Extrapolation of price targets is what you are referring to, I am not saying this. What I am saying is if price does move against my spot long, I win a lot, if price does not move, well I still win, just a little from what I made before, if price moves up with my spot long, well the 2x puts are bought OTM or ATM, so you only pay for theta premium, using foreign capital. It is to win battles already won.
  • #45,425
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:42am Mar 29, 2014 12:42am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, Chicky, I think you have misunderstood me, I do not use extrapolation to define where is take profit or not, I use extrapolation of possibility of direction of movements and ways to mitigate or make use of that to decide how best to manage the current situation, the current situation allows me an opportunity to profit even more when the price moves against my underlying spot position, essentially, its a win more or win less situation. Extrapolation of price targets is what you are referring to, I am not saying this. What I am saying...
Misunderstood?........... I think I never understood. Let me go back to the original post of yours to see what you actually mean. But one thing, I have decided to hate technicals .............. from yesterday............... and also the fundamentals. They are all useless. i have something of my own now.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #45,426
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:47am Mar 29, 2014 12:47am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Misunderstood?........... I think I never understood. Let me go back to the orginal post of yours to see what you actually mean. But one thing, I have decided to hate technicals .............. from yesterday............... and also the fundamentals. They are all useless. i have something of my own now.
Hi, Chicky,

This was never about technical analysis and is also not about using fibonacci, this is about using long puts to long vol the current position already in profits.
If done correctly, it creates a butterfly that gets more profitable as price moves away from the centre, but your down side is $0 losses, with the precondition that you have performed fti's attack sequence properly and have had performed a successful profitable campaign. All this does is to win even more what you have already won, without losing a lot.
  • #45,427
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:51am Mar 29, 2014 12:51am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, thanks fti, just to give back to the thread, I have created an additional attack strategy to complement overnight positions that can be implemented on top of fti's attack sequence. Suppose you have 100troops in battle, and you have conducted a successful campaign, and have taken profits on 90 of the troops, and am interested in leaving 10 of the troops in battle to bring in more foreign capital, suppose you are long on the position, and already in profits there is an option strategy that lets you protect your position by using a protective...
Cookie! WTF? Do you want me to read and understand this on a Friday night after finishing my full weekly quota of drinks in a couple of hours? You must be crazy. Explain what you have written here tomorrow morning.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #45,428
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:57am Mar 29, 2014 12:57am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Misunderstood?........... I think I never understood. Let me go back to the original post of yours to see what you actually mean. But one thing, I have decided to hate technicals .............. from yesterday............... and also the fundamentals. They are all useless. i have something of my own now.
I like reading your posts man, too funny..
I agree with you, fundamentals and technicals are useless. This something of your own..is it luck? .. Insider trading? .. Asstrology? (Woops misspelt that one wonder why) .. Hmm I can't seem to think of anymore possibilities Please, do tell..
  • #45,429
  • Mar 29, 2014 1:00am Mar 29, 2014 1:00am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Cookie! WTF? Do you want me to read and understand this on a Friday night after finishing my full weekly quota of drinks in a couple of hours? You must be crazy. Explain what you have written here tomorrow morning.
Hi Chicky,

Maybe a picture would help, google for a long straddle, except the losses are $0.
  • #45,430
  • Mar 29, 2014 3:27am Mar 29, 2014 3:27am
/off topic/
I thought this might be interesting, saw someone posted it else where, how Mr writer relates

Role Of Israel & Soros Exposed
By MH370 Twin Jet In Tel Aviv

http://rense.com/general96/role.html
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #45,431
  • Mar 29, 2014 3:32am Mar 29, 2014 3:32am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, thanks fti, just to give back to the thread, I have created an additional attack strategy to complement overnight positions that can be implemented on top of fti's attack sequence. Suppose you have 100troops in battle, and you have conducted a successful campaign, and have taken profits on 90 of the troops, and am interested in leaving 10 of the troops in battle to bring in more foreign capital, suppose you are long on the position, and already in profits there is an option strategy that lets you protect your position by using a protective...

hi CookieMonsta

so your using the profit from the spot battle minus what is left in the field/pair to buy an options straddle???? (if i have understood correctly). why not just manage your trades (in all pairs) as one or use 2 pairs that generally move in opposite directions to manage/offset risk, you could sell one while buying into the other, of course you still need to be able to take a read/feel from the market to do this effectively and know when to ease up on one and take profits on the other, there are no short cuts to that part of experience.
in AOW as it relates to trading it is my understanding that attacking at weak points using direct and indirect methods and knowing your enemy (yourself and market structure) and combining it with money management less fear/greed = success, now quite how you win your battle is irrelevant just that you win, so if it is working for you great.
fti has said many time that long sword (options) are not for us retail traders, i believe it is just complicating the process and why give away your profit once won, you are saying that you are trading profit for potential less profit or zero profit or more gain, is that not putting the odds against you??? 1 in 3 chance of winning more than you had?, which would mean that you have to win more 2x more of your spot trades to breakeven your chances of gaining what you already had, as i have said previously i am not gambler so this does not make sense to me???? sorry, maybe i misunderstand??

i am not really to up on this delta/theta thingy, i just try to trade and gain a little here and there by adjusting my trade management and risk according to the situation i find myself in at any given time.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #45,432
  • Edited 3:42am Mar 29, 2014 3:32am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting Northpro
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
for those that missed the file.
available for a limited time, here it is again.

regards
{quote} This is a great read, thanks fti...on my second reading now. NP
I am horribly late for that, have sent you a PM FTI, kindly advise if i have the one on topic.

Thanks in advnace
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #45,433
  • Mar 29, 2014 4:12am Mar 29, 2014 4:12am
Quoting phil13
{quote} hi CookieMonsta so your using the profit from the spot battle minus what is left in the field/pair to buy an options straddle???? (if i have understood correctly). why not just manage your trades (in all pairs) as one or use 2 pairs that generally move in opposite directions to manage/offset risk, you could sell one while buying into the other, of course you still need to be able to take a read/feel from the market to do this effectively and know when to ease up on one and take profits on the other, there are no short cuts to that part of...
Hi phil,

not all profits, only some profits as deemed suitable, for example, profits used may only be 10% of total profits for the day, are used create a straddle, in essence you are using a very small position to attempt to let a 1 day position run for a month or more, seeing which is more suitable for your time frame, which means you must never be using your own capital to create the straddle, only foreign capital that u got from the successful campaign, and only a small portion too, hence it may be a bet but a smart one, in which you win only, and never lose, hence it is not really gambling, but just a matter of winning more or less. An example is suppose you have 10 lots of profit, take 9lots of profit out, and pay for 2lots of puts against the 1lot long, which leaves you 8lots in profit, 1lot paid by the 1lot long spot, while the the 1lot profit from the day pays for the position of the 1lot put, hence 2 lot puts. then you have a lossless position while banking 8lots of profit. and just waiting for it for 1 month, there is a high chance of it moving away from your specific price where it is at 0, hence it makes it quite hard to not make money, for you to not make money you have to have the closing price at exactly that specific particular pip price, while for profits, its anywhere but there.

Also I don't think it is wise to do the pair trade you mentioned, suppose we have the eurusd and the gbpusd pair, we do not really know if it is eur or usd or gbp who is the active one, if only usd is active, yes your method works, but you cannot say for sure the eur or gbp may not come into the picture, which may land you in even more losses on both positions, thats y i only use options for this, as doing pair trades when the pairs tear, it will become really scary, and as you may be leaving it overnight, thats not something i am comfortable with, as you may have see recently, the gbpusd and usdjpy pair starts acting positively correlated, when our understanding is they (should?) act in opposite correlation. thats y i do not like to use these pair trades, too much assumptions that may be unfounded. gbpusd and eurusd should act in the same way is a fallacy, the 3 kingdoms is trying to understand who is in control and follow the dormant force.

this part about the AOW, is using the situation to evolve and develop even more powerful strategies to attack further, its meant to carry out even more attacks, it may seem defensive but it is an attack strategy, from a situation in which it could go against your underlying spot position, but it does not matter, as your options are attacking for you, while the spot may be bleeding, if the option bleeds, the spot is doing the attack for you.

sorry if i complicated matters, but i was hoping to share what i learnt back here.
  • #45,434
  • Mar 29, 2014 4:49am Mar 29, 2014 4:49am
Hi CookieMonsta

i see what your saying now and it make more sense to me, i thought you were using all the say 90% trade profit to buy the straddle, seems i misunderstood, so it is say 10% of it your using, that make sense to me now.

everyone evolves their own trading strategy in the end and so long as it is consistently profitable is all that matters .

thank you for taking the time to explain further, i am dyslexic so it can take a while for some things to be understood from the written word for me.

good luck with your trading

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #45,435
  • Mar 29, 2014 4:49am Mar 29, 2014 4:49am
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta i see what your saying now and it make more sense to me, i thought you were using all the say 90% trade profit to buy the straddle, seems i misunderstood, so it is say 10% of it your using, that make sense to me now. everyone evolves their own trading strategy in the end and so long as it is consistently profitable is all that matters . thank you for taking the time to explain further, i am dyslexic so it can take a while for some things to be understood from the written word for me. good luck with your tarding regards Phil.
hi phil,

well you help me out, so I'm just giving back.
lets all improve our trading together.
  • #45,436
  • Mar 29, 2014 5:28am Mar 29, 2014 5:28am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi phil, well you help me out, so I'm just giving back. lets all improve our trading together.

Hi CookieMonsta

my friend

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #45,437
  • Mar 29, 2014 7:27am Mar 29, 2014 7:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} nothing so special. Just decades watching market behaviour. just decade dealing with rogue manipulators.. They have very basic tools. they think they BIG. until they see their book all bloodied. Just try see whats real, and leave the BIG deal with their ego. same as what happening to the plane scene. Until today i still only know what i knew then. That bird didn't land where its supposed to. and no one have a clue where it is or what happened. but as usual every one likes speculate and make the work of the pros really trying fig it out...
Hi fTi, Hope you, and everyone here on TAF, are having a good weekend. I just love your posts! As of yesterday, I've been doing my forex thing for 10years. What a ride it's been so far! Thank you for being a big part of this journey, and I hope I can keep reading your thoughts and observations here for a long time to come. Best wishes and God bless!
  • #45,438
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:51am Mar 30, 2014 1:51am
Hey all,
Not too sure if anyone is still here or reading, I thought this is helpful, at least to me, for the least...

Cheers,
For people in my class, the enlistees of the thread, or, anyone if you please
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: post2.jpg Size: 279 KB
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #45,439
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:55am Mar 30, 2014 1:55am
Quoting RelaxRay
Hey all, Not too sure if anyone is still here or reading, I thought this is helpful, at least to me, for the least... Cheers, For people in my class, the enlistees of the thread {image}
Hi RelaxRay,

really funny experiment, funnily realistic. Seems like culture of the monkeys in the majority prevents them from critically thinking about the situation.
  • #45,440
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:42am Mar 30, 2014 2:42am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi RelaxRay, really funny experiment, funnily realistic. Seems like culture of the monkeys in the majority prevents them from critically thinking about the situation.
Personally, I would believe it is not limiting to "them" hehe

Cheers Cookie Mocha
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
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