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  • #3,341
  • Mar 29, 2014 10:20am Mar 29, 2014 10:20am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101534213?__s...tocks%20to%20d

25% drop coming across all asset classes?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,342
  • Mar 29, 2014 10:56am Mar 29, 2014 10:56am
...next week, China news. Some say expectations are for an early announcement of more stimubus for China...disappointing news out of China will weigh on stocks, industrials, but by late week a kickass US jobs report could brighten the mood.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,343
  • Mar 29, 2014 11:05am Mar 29, 2014 11:05am
More news of China slowdown may weigh on CAT, trading near alltime highs
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,344
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:05pm Mar 29, 2014 12:05pm
BAC at the top of the pile for High OI....financials to do well in a rising rates environment, BAC should be trading > $20 this year...

I see Jan calls in SLV, ABX in the top 15, bullish expectations for pm's, inflation hedges...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,345
  • Edited 12:46pm Mar 29, 2014 12:29pm | Edited 12:46pm
FANG, somebody bought 10,000 Jun $30 puts for $0.20; Jun $45p @ $0.20/$0.25; Jun $50p $0.25/$0.80 (!)...interesting to watch chain pricing around dotm action in illiquid options....

Apr $62.50 puts are $0.30/$0.70; May $55p @ $0.25/$0.80, etc

FANG reports week of May 5

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...us-upside.aspx
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,346
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:55pm Mar 29, 2014 12:55pm
miners to bounce, watching GDX as it dips into the $23.xx. High volume in the Jun $27 calls...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,347
  • Mar 29, 2014 1:31pm Mar 29, 2014 1:31pm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2115...ng-term-future

C buying opp, dips below $47 maybe, Sep $55 calls $0.64/$0.67
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,348
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:03am Mar 30, 2014 3:03am
Quoting The Fool
...next week, China news. Some say expectations are for an early announcement of more stimubus for China...disappointing news out of China will weigh on stocks, industrials, but by late week a kickass US jobs report could brighten the mood. {image} {image} {image}
Hey TF,

Interesting CNBC article about the 25% drop coming soon. There seems to be a lot of media coverage about an impending pullback and is appears the 'experts' are saying the market is waiting for the right catalyst. Perhaps China, perhaps a US economy that is growing slower than expected if the next few data point are lower than forecast and there aren't any more 'weather influences', who knows......Consequently I'm keeping my DTE timescale for selling options (particularly in the indexes) shorter than usual which results in less premium collected but less risk for my positions. However, if there is a market pullback there should be a corresponding rise in volatility which will be great for option sellers to net a higher premium than current levels......Let's see how the next few weeks go...
  • #3,349
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:38am Mar 30, 2014 3:38am
Hey Fool,
I was searching Here and there for binary Options forum . It is very good that you started this Thread and gave the opportunity to newbies to learn about binary options. Thanks
  • #3,350
  • Mar 30, 2014 11:23am Mar 30, 2014 11:23am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, Interesting CNBC article about the 25% drop coming soon. There seems to be a lot of media coverage about an impending pullback and is appears the 'experts' are saying the market is waiting for the right catalyst. Perhaps China, perhaps a US economy that is growing slower than expected if the next few data point are lower than forecast and there aren't any more 'weather influences', who knows......Consequently I'm keeping my DTE timescale for selling options (particularly in the indexes) shorter than usual which results in less premium...
you'll be fine if you stick to selling calls, I bet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,351
  • Mar 30, 2014 11:41am Mar 30, 2014 11:41am
With heavy China data hitting after Monday's close, I might be looking at FXI, there's decent liquidity in the options & you can set up cheap debit spreads, like maybe May 17 $33.50p/May 4 $33.00p - ($0.48)/$0.24 - $0.24 net debit...or deeper otm there you can do same strikes May 17/May 4 for about $0.10 debit +/-, like $31.50 @ ($0.20)/$0.10....same thing on the call side out at $38.50, or could go credit spread on the call side like 5/17 $38.00/$38.50 - $0.41/($0.33) - $0.08 credit


http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...rrons&ru=yahoo
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,352
  • Edited 6:19pm Mar 30, 2014 5:17pm | Edited 6:19pm
TZA May debit spread with diag short call @ $20 or above....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,353
  • Mar 31, 2014 10:46am Mar 31, 2014 10:46am
waiting to see where the $USD index closes at month end then where it trades in the next two days of new month start before making trades on stocks and currencies
  • #3,354
  • Mar 31, 2014 10:51am Mar 31, 2014 10:51am
Seems to me the market knows a big drop is coming. The only way it could not is if they cancel the taper. But I don't think they will, because they need to have something to deploy when the next shitstorm hits. And of course there will be a next shitstorm, because there is always a next shitstorm. The market also knows lots of people are short, and publishing short ideas ("short this market now" etc).
So we are in some kind of waiting game until they pull the plug. Rallies are getting weaker. Gap and go's on ES are weaker and being sold into sooner in the day. Significant weakness is appearing on some averages and in high beta stocks. Clearly, the insurmountable bullish strength of last year bulletproof bull is absent. The market seems to have moved into a sell the rallies mode on equities and USDJPY, and buy the dips on 30 year bonds. But you can never know how long these (what appear to be counter-trend) rallies will last. We are about to enter April, seasonally one of the strongest months of the year, before entering the summer doldrums, "Sell in May" etc. So it is conceivable that they keep this up for the next four weeks.

This chart shows the seasonality of midterm years (via http://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500...sonal-charts):
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,355
  • Mar 31, 2014 10:57am Mar 31, 2014 10:57am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Seems to me the market knows a big drop is coming. The only way it could not is if they cancel the taper. But I don't think they will, because they need to have something to deploy when the next shitstorm hits. And of course there will be a next shitstorm, because there is always a next shitstorm. The market also knows lots of people are short, and publishing short ideas ("short this market now" etc). So we are in some kind of waiting game until they pull the plug. Rallies are getting weaker. Gap and go's on ES are weaker and being sold into sooner...
yep, just look how the market keeps moving higher yet all the big cap stocks are retreating, major inbalance
  • #3,356
  • Mar 31, 2014 4:13pm Mar 31, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Seems to me the market knows a big drop is coming.
Idk, Ma Yellen says some words that bulls like and off we go. Let's see if the Chinese can provide extra fodder.

Put away some of the bigger red flags (Putin adventures, China slowdown) and I could see bulls making new US index highs across the board by Summer.

I'll tell you what, though: in this game, I'd trade luck for perspicacity any day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,357
  • Apr 1, 2014 12:18am Apr 1, 2014 12:18am
Quoting njr
Hi all, New position: SOLD SPX Mar31'14 1775 PUT (SPXQ) @CBOE @ 0.8
Position expired OTM and full profit received.
  • #3,358
  • Apr 1, 2014 7:16pm Apr 1, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm with you long AAPL, have $600 long calls @ 5/17 for $2.05, now I need the tech stock beatdown to subside and AAPL to motor up so I can sell some otm Apr calls for good credit. ......(sold em at $1.30)
Been in the hole on this since I bought the calls, but AAPL finally gained some ground today, up about 1%. Need to see that again at least this week to get back to BE, where I might bail, unless AAPL showing strong new interest & a push to $560+, then I might stick with the original plan.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,359
  • Apr 2, 2014 9:19am Apr 2, 2014 9:19am
^TNX upper bound @ 2.80% most of the year, bumping there again today. TLT likewise rangebound, watching for dips <$107...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,360
  • Apr 2, 2014 9:28am Apr 2, 2014 9:28am
^VIX looking to dip <13. If/when it does, longs via VXX or UVXY maybe worth a punt, but it could stay down there for months while S&P motors towards 2,000...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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