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Central Banks Watch

  • #261
  • Jul 13, 2006 6:45pm Jul 13, 2006 6:45pm
Maybe its because everyone is expecting the rate increase already. if there is no increase or the increase is not as high as most expect, then the JPY pairs are going to go through the roof.

Quoting iceburg501
What flies over my head is why is the yen lossing ground to all majors ESPECIALLY when the market is speculating on a 0.25% hike ??

When theres FOMC meetings the dollar gains or consolidates before release, but yen has been lossing ground since tuesday.......
  • #262
  • Jul 13, 2006 6:50pm Jul 13, 2006 6:50pm
Quoting Keys
before the news comes out put a limit buy order above the current price and a limit sell under the current price. When the news gets out and there's a breakout, then cancel the order that didn't get triggered. Then enjoy.
Thanks for the explanation, that's what i figured from reaading the rest of the messages, but just wanted to make sure! Thanks again!
  • #263
  • Jul 13, 2006 7:22pm Jul 13, 2006 7:22pm
I LIKE the BoJ threads, they're cool...I like to hear what different people have to say...so I'm glad they're here and hope they stay.

I'm not sure anyone can say who "should be" and "shouldn't be" trading except for the person that is doing the trading. That's a little bit cocky to say that. People come to read, get ideas, learn new things from message boards, and I'm pretty sure the people that read these messages understand that if they're influenced one way or other by someone else's message, and that message was incorrect, he's got no one to blame except himself, as he was the one that pushed the buy or sell button.

And you're probably right, some ppl don't have a plan, which is why they come here to get ideas and possibly devise a plan for themselves that sounds reasonable and that they're comfortable with, but again, ultimately with the realization that they are responsible for whatever move they make. I don't have a definite plan, which is why i came to see what other people think, but I'm not going to blame joe-blow for saying something which sounded reasonable to me and it turned out to be a mistake if I acted on it.

Relax guy...no need to be so uptight...of your blood pressure will go through the roof!
  • #264
  • Jul 13, 2006 7:28pm Jul 13, 2006 7:28pm
According to the calendar the BOJ news release is not for another 2 and a half hours, but according to some people the market movement which occurred about an hour and a half ago was in response to the news release.

What is the truth here? Does anybody know, for sure, when the news is?
  • #265
  • Jul 13, 2006 7:35pm Jul 13, 2006 7:35pm
rate hike at 1 am 14 jul move you saw was going up and getting stops before the move down (I'm guessing)
  • #266
  • Jul 13, 2006 7:42pm Jul 13, 2006 7:42pm
Its 939 Central Time US and the move up is from an institutional player. Im expecting a news announcement from 10p to 1a. Its right after the policy meeting that ends noon their time.
  • #267
  • Jul 13, 2006 7:56pm Jul 13, 2006 7:56pm
6 minutes and counting. The news is already known, its a corrupt political system. Check the direction thats its been trading in, it will spike in that direction, and those large positions that bought in, will sell into that spike getting out easily. The rest of the trade will be a fade the spike trade. USD is bullish still. Things might heat up further into the weekend. Nonone wants to be caught short USD versus pairs.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #268
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:36pm Jul 13, 2006 8:36pm
even if the news has leaked about a dovish BoJ statement STILL this run up is only yen weakness and shouldnt come when theres a rate hike, Especially when the yens traded alot lower in acticipation of the hike and now that the hike is coming its weaker......illogical
  • #269
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:52pm Jul 13, 2006 8:52pm
Sometimes the market moves in illogical ways. Take the USD. Fundamentally it should be weak but it got strength.

Quoting iceburg501
even if the news has leaked about a dovish BoJ statement STILL this run up is only yen weakness and shouldnt come when theres a rate hike, Especially when the yens traded alot lower in acticipation of the hike and now that the hike is coming its weaker......illogical
  • #270
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:30pm Jul 13, 2006 9:30pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I hate to sound rude, but it seems like there's about two or three threads today on the BOJ rate announcement, and everyone I see on these threads except for a couple of folks are in what I call, the "gambler's mindset".

Listen folks -- you have NO idea where price is going to go. So why do you care?

To succeed you have to give up the notion of trying to predict the market. And until you realize that, you will consistently be a loser.

I've been there, done that.

All I see is, "So where do you think it's going to go?" or, "So how many pips is it going to go?"

Ya know what that means when you ask that? It means that you're not going to go into the trade with a plan. Instead, you're relying on speculation of what people on a forum think is going to happen. And they have no idea neither.

It's all cool to talk about rate hikes in general conversation, but I can guarantee that the things people are saying today will have an impact on people's trading decisions. People come into forums and see a bunch of people saying, "Oh the yen is DEFINITELY bullish!", and subconsciously, whether they know it or not, that will push them in that direction when the rate is announced.

And then what happens if it jumps a measly 20 pips, but then whipsaws back for 35, takes out your stop, then reverses back down for 100? What do you do? Have you moved your initial stoploss to breakeven if you're trading this on short term intervals?

Do you have a plan?

Think about that folks. (And no, you don't have a plan if you have to ask people where it's going to go and how many pips it's going to go...and if that's the case, you should not be trading.)

Ok... I'm done ranting.
Top quality post brother!

As a habitual news trader I'm not even contemplating trading this announcement. Consensus is all over the map and then we have a post announcement news conference. Trade this one and you're near guaranteed to be a loser. There are MUCH easier trades to be had...
  • #271
  • Jul 13, 2006 10:19pm Jul 13, 2006 10:19pm
Quoting Darkstar
Top quality post brother!

As a habitual news trader I'm not even contemplating trading this announcement. Consensus is all over the map and then we have a post announcement news conference. Trade this one and you're near guaranteed to be a loser. There are MUCH easier trades to be had...
Quality post along with Mr.Trend's post. These two guys know what they are doing!!!

I need to learn to trade like you guys!

Ken
  • #272
  • Jul 14, 2006 12:33am Jul 14, 2006 12:33am
Quoting forexplayer
I would straddle the news. Whether BOJ increases rates or not, there is going to be a swing one way or the other, so a straddle for me.
What broker would allow you to do that?
  • #273
  • Jul 14, 2006 12:36am Jul 14, 2006 12:36am
Quoting jessieblue
What broker would allow you ot do that?
Oanda.

A straddle isn't a buy on one side and a sell on the other. A straddle is actually a buy or sell with the opposite happening at the same time. So basically, you're taking both sides -- losing while winning. Once you feel you've found the winning side, you close the losing trade.

That's a true straddle... what option players commonly use on news day. Oanda lets you do this in sub accounts.

It is a viable strategy IMHO.
Mr. Trend
  • #274
  • Jul 14, 2006 12:36am Jul 14, 2006 12:36am
Almost any broker that I can think of. It is a stop entry order with an if done stop and Tp and a limit entry order with a ifdone stop and tp.

MG financial allows this and they are very behind the times technically.


Quoting jessieblue
What broker would allow you ot do that?
  • #275
  • Jul 14, 2006 1:38am Jul 14, 2006 1:38am
Don't like the idea of trading the news. I'm thinking bearish on Eur/Jpy and was watching for a good spike up to create a new short position.

After closing my previous position a few hours before the announcment, I'm now in around 30 pips higher. ...plus I think I ended up 10 pips ahead on the cover.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #276
  • Jul 14, 2006 5:28am Jul 14, 2006 5:28am
Quoting Yardie
Sometimes the market moves in illogical ways. Take the USD. Fundamentally it should be weak but it got strength.
I don't understand the continued run-up in the majors versus the YEN, after the announcement of a albiet modest tightening of credit by the BOJ??

Alan
  • #277
  • Jul 14, 2006 7:28am Jul 14, 2006 7:28am
The USD is strong against the Yen and EUro and GBP which is why the other Yen pairs are going up (following the lead of the usdjpy).

Quoting Sleuth
I don't understand the continued run-up in the majors versus the YEN, after the announcement of a albiet modest tightening of credit by the BOJ??

Alan
  • #278
  • Jul 14, 2006 6:17pm Jul 14, 2006 6:17pm
I dont see any bearish for any Yen pair. Instead it's still keep raising. I hope i can trade this pair but i missed it due to personnal problem.
But
Using my TA - i see the trend will drop for any ?/Yen
Using my FA - of caurse it awill drop

Eventually the movement is UP. I cannot explain this.
Can someone pls?
  • #279
  • Jul 14, 2006 8:31pm Jul 14, 2006 8:31pm
Quoting jonas
I dont see any bearish for any Yen pair. Instead it's still keep raising. I hope i can trade this pair but i missed it due to personnal problem.
But
Using my TA - i see the trend will drop for any ?/Yen
Using my FA - of caurse it awill drop

Eventually the movement is UP. I cannot explain this.
Can someone pls?
I would make an attempt, but you need to rephrase the questions. I don't understand what your asking...
  • #280
  • Jul 15, 2006 8:41am Jul 15, 2006 8:41am
Mr Trend, Darkstar......

excelent post, your input clearly identifies a major reason most traders lose.
Idle speculation is nothing more than gossip,unsubstantiated, idle, BS, wishfull thinking.....DEFINETLY not a trading plan.
If all you can do is speculate you may as well flip a coin.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
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