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Newbie: Does this system look ok to you?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 19, 2014 6:49am Mar 19, 2014 6:49am
Hi Guys,

A friend have created and tested a AE for more than a year on play money.
We put some real money in it to continue testing with small size USD account but at least when its real money its more appealing to monitor etc..
I just managed to add the system here

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/stoko/audistoko/871459

(I hope this sort of links is allowed)

My general question is: Do you think this system looks ok in terms of data so far? I am unsure what way to analyse it..
Any thoughts are greatly appreciated!

Thanks!
  • #2
  • Mar 19, 2014 7:57am Mar 19, 2014 7:57am
Quoting BaiMangal
Hi Guys, A friend have created and tested a AE for more than a year on play money. We put some real money in it to continue testing with small size USD account but at least when its real money its more appealing to monitor etc.. I just managed to add the system here http://www.myfxbook.com/members/stoko/audistoko/871459 (I hope this sort of links is allowed) My general question is: Do you think this system looks ok in terms of data so far? I am unsure what way to analyse it.. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated! Thanks!


Your record look's good,just foward you det ups ,so we can take a luke ,to see if is real,remember ,new info is always welcome,thank's,
happy trading
  • #3
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:00am Mar 19, 2014 8:00am
Quoting brandy711
{quote} Your record look's good,just foward you det ups ,so we can take a luke ,to see if is real,remember ,new info is always welcome,thank's, happy trading

thanks!
what do you mean by "just foward you det ups "?
  • #4
  • Mar 20, 2014 3:00am Mar 20, 2014 3:00am
In this FORUM and in FOREX Business, People will tell you what you want to hear...

Unfortunately for you, I will tell you the truth, and you will dislike me because of that, or maybe try to ignore me.

There is no such thing as a system in FOREX, because you cannot predict the future, thus you are are constantly gambling.

FOREX as we know it, is pure randomness. This is not a science. But it has been proven over and over again, based on millions tests and on mathematical studies that LONG TERM you will always lose in a gambling based business. PROOF based on PhD studies.

So, if you still think there is a system, go ahead. But you will lose your hard earned money in the end.

People, humans don't like to hear the truth about many things.

If you fabricate a story and tell them you saw an ET and an extraterrestrial UFO on the sky, everyone will like you and will be interested to know more...

The day you tell them that UFOs never ever came to earth, because the "nearest" galaxy with "possible" intelligent life is millions light-years away from earth, that day they will dislike you. People prefer to hear that UFOs come all the time and that there is a possibility of Close Encounters of the Third Kind. (Go figure, there is some naive guy nicknamed ALIEN in this forum. There you have it.)

The same happens with FOREX, they want to BELIEVE it is possible to "MAYBE" one day find the SECRETS to make money with forex, or have the "So called EUREKA Moment" to become profitable. That is never going to happen for a "RETAIL FOREX TRADER" a.k.a GAMBLER.

People WANT TO BELIEVE...

All said.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #5
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:07am Mar 20, 2014 4:07am
Nice reply!

I won't ignore you and I will always have in mind that at the end I can lose it all. Thats why I will only play with money I am not afraid to lose or money that I am ready to gamble.. I made pretty good money playing poker for about 5 years and I know whats losing and winning look like

The so called system is based on the randomness of the trades has some not overly complex logic around it. It worked for more than 1 year on play money account and made some nice profits. I know back performance is not prove for future but at least its some small indicator that its not pure losing all the time system.
I call it system because its a software system. My friend that did it can programmer pretty good, I myself am a programmer too and I am used to call programs - systems hehe.

Its good to hear more opinions although 3 months of trading is nothing so maybe I was a bit too early with my general question of what do you think about the performance based on the current data.. maybe should wait till the end of the year and ask again.. we will see..

thanks for you time!
  • #6
  • Mar 20, 2014 4:25am Mar 20, 2014 4:25am
If you have a system that is making profits then the only way forward is to test it. Manage risk carefully and you will have it.

It is not true that no system works. It is possible to consistently make money in forex. It's just that the good traders leave this site well alone because it is full of people who won't do the work and loonies. Both these groups will tell you it's not possible because they can't do it.

Probability is the name of the game, not gambling. Money management is how probability stacks up.
Gone to a better place
  • #7
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:45am Mar 20, 2014 6:45am
Quoting MapleLeaf
In this FORUM and in FOREX Business, People will tell you what you want to hear... Unfortunately for you, I will tell you the truth, and you will dislike me because of that, or maybe try to ignore me. There is no such thing as a system in FOREX, because you cannot predict the future, thus you are are constantly gambling. FOREX as we know it, is pure randomness. This is not a science. But it has been proven over and over again, based on millions tests and on mathematical studies that LONG TERM you will always lose in a gambling based business. PROOF...
Question now is...
are you an Institutional trader, retail trader, or and is FOREX and FOREX FACTORY a BLOODY WASTE OF TIME: if it is why do you even bother, then if you on the other hand know the way or several ways to profit why don't you fill us in?
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #8
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:47am Mar 20, 2014 6:47am
Quoting smikester
If you have a system that is making profits then the only way forward is to test it. Manage risk carefully and you will have it. It is not true that no system works. It is possible to consistently make money in forex. It's just that the good traders leave this site well alone because it is full of people who won't do the work and loonies. Both these groups will tell you it's not possible because they can't do it. Probability is the name of the game, not gambling. Money management is how probability stacks up.
Bai, good words on that last post. Naysayers are everywhere. Ignore them and keep studying.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #9
  • Mar 20, 2014 1:24pm Mar 20, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting BaiMangal
{quote} thanks! what do you mean by "just foward you det ups "?
details set-ups of your system.
thank's
  • #10
  • Mar 21, 2014 2:59am Mar 21, 2014 2:59am
hm no I would like someone to look at the data without knowing the actual set-up and make some conclusion based only on the data.
If the set-up is explained it won't be pure data analyse and what I am looking for is data analysis of the current results.
  • #11
  • Mar 21, 2014 10:16am Mar 21, 2014 10:16am
Quoting BaiMangal
hm no I would like someone to look at the data without knowing the actual set-up and make some conclusion based only on the data. If the set-up is explained it won't be pure data analyse and what I am looking for is data analysis of the current results.
Just to add to my post above I looked at the data and one of the most important figures was average loss against average win. I note your average loss is 2.5 times the average win. The win rate is high and therefore that suggests to me your system is some sort of semi Martingale. I could not find the highest percentage single loss but I am guessing it could be quite high.

For example, the January 17th drawdown was 16%. Was this one trade? I would look into this, because, although the win rate is high, 2 or 3 losses could ruin the account.
Gone to a better place
  • #12
  • Mar 21, 2014 11:38am Mar 21, 2014 11:38am
Quoting MapleLeaf
In this FORUM and in FOREX Business, People will tell you what you want to hear... Unfortunately for you, I will tell you the truth, and you will dislike me because of that, or maybe try to ignore me. There is no such thing as a system in FOREX, because you cannot predict the future, thus you are are constantly gambling. FOREX as we know it, is pure randomness. This is not a science. But it has been proven over and over again, based on millions tests and on mathematical studies that LONG TERM you will always lose in a gambling based business. PROOF...
blah blah blah, i couldnt make it so no one can.... Best thing I did was got away from forums, its just a giant pissing contest anyways!
  • #13
  • Mar 25, 2014 7:31am Mar 25, 2014 7:31am
Whoops!

Attached Image


No wonder I didn't get a reply...
Gone to a better place
  • #14
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:18am Mar 25, 2014 9:18am
that was my 1st account where I busted 500usd 4-5 years ago and stopped looking at forex
Until last year.. anyways that's not the point I never ever claim I know anything about forex!!!
If I knew forex trading good I would not ask simple questions.


Pity that no one has an idea of if a system is good just by looking at the data!
How do you guys make money if you cannt analyse simple data???
If someone post his poker data with general stats about his game I would be able to make at least simple conclusions!

Anyways I will try to find a way to get into data analysis on my own..
  • #15
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:22am Mar 25, 2014 9:22am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Just to add to my post above I looked at the data and one of the most important figures was average loss against average win. I note your average loss is 2.5 times the average win. The win rate is high and therefore that suggests to me your system is some sort of semi Martingale. I could not find the highest percentage single loss but I am guessing it could be quite high. For example, the January 17th drawdown was 16%. Was this one trade? I would look into this, because, although the win rate is high, 2 or 3 losses could ruin the account....

Didn't see this.. sorry

Its not Martingale its more a scalper than MG. The couple of drawdowns were because we had to close the positions "manually" and take some loss because there were some important news coming for the EURUSD and we thought we better take the loss we had in EQ before the news rather then risking to get much bigger loss. It could turn our way but we had and have no idea how to read news, and how to trade on our own in general.
So the drawdowns in the graph are we closing manually cause we got worried...
  • #16
  • Mar 25, 2014 9:42am Mar 25, 2014 9:42am
Quoting BaiMangal
that was my 1st account where I busted 500usd 4-5 years ago and stopped looking at forex Until last year.. anyways that's not the point I never ever claim I know anything about forex!!! If I knew forex trading good I would not ask simple questions. Pity that no one has an idea of if a system is good just by looking at the data! How do you guys make money if you cannt analyse simple data??? If someone post his poker data with general stats about his game I would be able to make at least simple conclusions! Anyways I will try to find a way to get...
I don't think anyone can analyze a system by looking at the past data. In forex this is worthless. Because you cannot take a decision by looking at the past data. Better if you can do forward testing.
  • #17
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:23am Mar 25, 2014 10:23am
Quoting BaiMangal
{quote} Didn't see this.. sorry Its not Martingale its more a scalper than MG. The couple of drawdowns were because we had to close the positions "manually" and take some loss because there were some important news coming for the EURUSD and we thought we better take the loss we had in EQ before the news rather then risking to get much bigger loss. It could turn our way but we had and have no idea how to read news, and how to trade on our own in general. So the drawdowns in the graph are we closing manually cause we got worried...
Right, so I think you have answered your own question. If the robot was trading a drawdown that had to be closed manually for fear of ruin, then it is useless.
Gone to a better place
  • #18
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:28am Mar 25, 2014 10:28am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Right, so I think you have answered your own question. If the robot was trading a drawdown that had to be closed manually for fear of ruin, then it is useless.

hmmm true!
thanks!
  • #19
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:29am Mar 25, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Parox
{quote} I don't think anyone can analyze a system by looking at the past data. In forex this is worthless. Because you cannot take a decision by looking at the past data. Better if you can do forward testing.
Its still better than losing in the past..
  • #20
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:37am Mar 25, 2014 10:37am
Quoting BaiMangal
Nice reply! I won't ignore you and I will always have in mind that at the end I can lose it all. Thats why I will only play with money I am not afraid to lose or money that I am ready to gamble.. I made pretty good money playing poker for about 5 years and I know whats losing and winning look like The so called system is based on the randomness of the trades has some not overly complex logic around it. It worked for more than 1 year on play money account and made some nice profits. I know back performance is not prove for future but at least...
I completely agree with this post. I have 7 years of trading and I was a programmer before. I have ever seen any systems that really work consistently.
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