Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Thank you Alfonso. Newbie question: What is the difference between fresh and original? Guess that is the source of my confusion.

Thanks once again!

Well... you have to read the first post a few times and the rest of the thread to learn about it You can't expect to know all the answers by reading just the last posts. All that information is there, you need to do your homework, I can't do that for you I can answer all kind of questions, I could answer this one as well, but that would mean that I am doing your homework, you have to take your time and that will take you weeks.

Alfonso

Yup....got it. Totally agree! Will reread the 1st post. Thank you for pointing me to it!

3 NEW SHORT 5 MINUTES VIDEOS HAVE BEEN RELEASED
A couple of months ago I recorder 3 short videos that explained more in depth how to use the trendline to filter out valid trades by using supply and demand imbalances, as well as using the trendlines to assess the trend at any given timeframe. I've made these 3 videos available for everybody now, there are more in depth longer videos at www.set-and-forget.com community, but these 3 should suffice to give you a clear idea of how the trendline concept works.

1. Longer term versus shorter term Trendlines used in Supply and Demand Trading


2. When not to use a Trendline in supply and demand forex trading


3. How to draw a Trendline to filter out supply and demand levels and imbalances


Have a great day and enjoy your weekend!
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

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Hi, Alfonso
This is my first post in this thread. I follow you for a few months and I'll try to explain what I'm seeing right now in GBPJPY to get your opinion.

GBPJPY 1M : demand is in control and TL is up like the daily timeframe TL.

In H4 instead the trend line is going down against the higer timefrimes.

Do we expect to enter when new 4H demand levels are formed or can we enter in daily demand level?

Thanks for your answer

1. I missed the H4 CP pattern entry by a couple of pips on USDCAD, pity
2. This is one of the reasons I'm thinking of adding some more padding room to the entries, specially to CP patterns. When we have those wicks in the base, it's sometimes better to make it wider
3. Anybody got it on their brokers? I know someone who was triggered, but on my chart it didn't
4. I am not trading H4 now so late, so if it retraces I won't take it till Monday

Hey Alfonso,
shame your set up did not trigger. Just shows brokers candle shapes varies and here is my chart, with same CP level marked ....would have been a nice trade, but I haven't paid attention to USD/CAD recently

Have a good trading

Hello my friend!

Thanks for your post It's crucial that you follow the rules one by one, you may think that you are following them but you broke a few of them when drawing your rectangles and TLs. Not following the rules mean that losses may happen and you will think that the rules do not work. I know, I know, rules are "easy" once you know them, this is why it takes months if not years to become proficient at any subject/field in life, the same applies to trading. This is why I am here to help as well!

MONTHLY CHART:

1. There is no MN demand at 169.09 like you painted, in order to have a demand area we need to remove the highest high at the red bearish candle, and create a minimum 2:1 RR imbalance
2. MN demand levels incorrectly drawn, correct ones in hollow rectangle

D1 CHART:

1. The D1 ascending TL you painted IS NOT valid. That's a Weekly TL possibly. You need to take into account the last 2 valid valleys and peaks.
2. D1 ascending TL is broken
3. D1 descending TL is broken
4. RESULT = CONSOLIDATION
5. Some D1 levels are missing, others incorrectly drawn

H4 CHART:

1. H4 TL is correctly drawn
2. Levels are not correctly drawn, you didn't follow the rules to draw them, don't know why, but you didn't take the whole levels for whatever reason I am not aware of. A level is a level, there are very specific rules on how to draw them

CONCLUSION:

1. MN is in an uptrend
2. D1 is in consolidation
3. H4 is in a downtrend

By breaking the rules, you break the links in a chain, it's all a chain reaction that will fall down into pieces and make you do the wrong analysis. But it's all fine, you just need more practice, watch the videos again, read the rules, you will see it's all there.


Alfonso

Hello fellow traders,

Just a reminder about Monday's live webinar. There is a change on what we are going to cover.

In principle, I was going to cover what I call the Sequence, Realignment and Nested Zones, which is a more advanced type of mechanical procedures to detect good zones for high probability trades, but I realized that this is a silly thing to do. There are many "newbies" that don't know how to do things correctly, so it's useless to cover more advanced scenarios when they don't know how to do the basic things.

Don't take me wrong, many of you will know how to do things correctly but unfortunately most don't. Many that think they know they are doing it correctly are in fact not doing them correctly, so we'll focus on doing the most important things correctly first, that can take a lot of time, in fact it takes a lot of time, efforts, hard work and dedication. Just by reading the rules in post #1 and watching the videos and webinars will not allow you to do things correctly, the same way you won't be able to speak/write fluent Spanish by reading a Spanish dictionary and/or grammar book.

CONCLUSION:

1. Free live webinars will be focused on learning the basics. Don't misunderstand me, the very basics will be enough to make you profitable. But you have to be able to do things right in a very mechanical and robotic way
2. Subjects covered in the free webinars will be mainly those that you are struggling with, they are always the same. You need to become consistent at doing these 3 tasks every single time you are in front of your trading platform:
   1. ​How to draw levels correctly
   2. How to draw Trendlines correctly, when to negate a TL and when to use it to assess for a trend
   3. How to define and uptrend and a downtrend

3. ​The 3 subjects above are the most difficult ones at Supply and Demand, because they are prone to subjectivity, this is why I have laid out a very specific set of rules that will not allow you to step away from the right path. But, you will break the rules because you think you know what you should be doing, but what you think you should be doing means "breaking the rules" and not doing as you should, so probabilities and success ratio will drop
4. It took me a long time to forward test these rules in Forex Tester, and live test them in demo/live mode, believe me. If you want to add new rules to it, take your time and analyse similar scenarios with at least 500 samples trades for each different variable. You can't add a new rule by just looking at the charts, it will be your ego adding that rule and not your analytical mind
5. The more advanced webinars will only be covered at www.set-and-forget.com for one single reason, they know about the more advanced things, we're talking about them every single day with charts examples and taking trades based on them, not for any other reason. At Forex Factory, almost nobody contributes, most don't do their homework because they don't want to or do not believe, so it's just impossible to cover the more advanced supply and demand rules when most viewers are just passing by and not wanting to do what they have to do or contribute with charts, ideas, etc. I am willing to help as much as I can but I can't attend all of your queries, even though I think I am doing well replying to the important ones over here at FF

HOW TO DRAW SUPPLY AND DEMAND LEVELS AND ASSESS A TREND

1. DATE: Monday 24th March 2014
2. TIME: 9 AM to 10:30 Central European Time | 4 AM to 5:30 AM EST. Right at London Open, trying a new hour since it's Monday and normally slow
3. Link to join: if you have already joined previous webinars, you must have the link in your inbox, else if you are new you need to fill in the following form to get the link http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

What will this webinar cover?

1. How to draw levels correctly, specific rules
2. How to assess a trend

Hope to see you there!

Have a great weeekend!
Alfonso

Thanks for your reply to this post. I have studied it and the original post by apereiro and learned a tremendous amount just from this one post as I, as a newbie, am making similar mistakes. I will not dismiss the strategy and say "it doesn't work" as many probably do. The problem is with me misunderstanding and therefore misreading the charts and coming to the wrong conclusions.

"At Forex Factory, almost nobody contributes"

I understand your frustration with this comment. I have considered posting charts, but as a newbie I don't want to clutter up the thread with information that may at best be duplicating what others have done, and at worst posting misleading information due to lack of knowledge. However I am following all that is posted here and greatly appreciate your continued support of this thread.

I'm glad you've decided to change the format of Monday's webinar to cover the basics. Although there are existing videos at the beginning of thread, the sound on some of these is very poor quality. I also expect you have refined some of your ideas a bit since they were posted therefore I'm sure there will be something for everyone although I would guess it will be of most benefit to newbies such as me.

Jim

Hello Snatch,

Thanks for your post and kind words, I appreciate that. It's good that you are also trading SD and adding other confluences but I must ask you to remove the posts you've posted recently for one simple reason. Current rules need no extra additions, be it in the shape of Thomas Demark trend factor or any other indicator. Rules work the way they are laid out so no need to add anything extra to it. We are always looking to add new things to feel more comfortable, that's fine, but current rules work and need no other additions. I am always working at improving current rules with nuances and maybe in the future other rules, but I need to forward test them for a long period of time and enough trade samples. Not interested in factors or anything similar, we have the minimum imbalance requirement, profit margin and risk/reward rules, bigger picture trend, and the odds on our side if all rules apply, so no need for extra rules.

Trendline filter, confluences with 20 EMA and Trenline and nested zones work very similar. It's fine that any of you add new nuances, I don't need that. This thread is all about the rules at Post #1, no new things can be used or it will confuse many. We all want to outsmart the market, but the truth is that we can't achieve that.

I thank you for your contribution but I'd kindly ask you to remove the previous 2 posts on Trend Factor. You are welcome to post any charts based on current rules, but nothing else is allowed for the sake of simplicity. Rules work, why adding new things? No need!

Alfonso

Please, remove this post with how you trade the Factors and previous 2 posts Snatch. Timeframes lower than H1 are not allowed, neither new rules, concepts or indicators. Rules are at post #1. I appreciate your interest showing us how you trade SD with factors but it's not part of the rules so they are not allowed.

Please remove them or I will have to ignore you from the thread and you will not longer be able to submit any post and contribute. This is a swing/position thread, not an intraday, it's also at Post #1 rules.

Looking forward to having the 3 posts removed. Thanks!
Alfonso

i Cant find edit in other for me to delete this post if there is anyway possible for you to do it for me i will appreciate am sorry for going against the rules of this thread i dont mean to break rules am very sorry...

i dont know if i can also ask this quesion here? please can someone direct me on how to go about starting a thread on forexfactoryand how i can find someone who can code a simple system for MT4 indicator.

Hi Alfonso

Thanks for your time and reponse . Although it is hard, it is really with appreciation, respect and affection , so constructive criticism can only be taken in the same direction .

Thanks also to JimN as I share everything you said especially :

"I will not dismiss the strategy and say " it does not work " as many probably do ." Most likely not follow rules . We must learn them.

"The problem is with me misunderstanding and misreading THEREFORE the charts and coming to the wrong conclusions . "

And I thought the same thing when I saw that change the format of the webinar on Monday. But after I told myself that if we do not clear the basic rules , what good progress in method ?

That said, I will try to clarify some of the things I did in this analysis ( to forget ) :

- With the new version of Reader Extender indicator Rectangle thought the white dot on the middle of some candles are those that indicate the boundaries of the zones. No I understood well the meaning of that point. So the areas are not well painted .

- About TL , nothing to explain better , not for nothing, as sometimes happens draw what my eyes would want to see without following the rules.

Yesterday afternoon I was carefully reading the post and seeing the mistakes I made , I made another analysis on GBPAUD hope this better than the first one.

Aunque es dura, realmente se que es con aprecio, respeto y cariño, por lo tanto una crítica constructiva solo puede ser tomada en el mismo sentido.
Gracias tambien a JimN ya que comparto todo lo que dijiste sobre todo:
"I will not dismiss the strategy and say "it doesn't work" as many probably do". Lo mas seguro es que no sigamos las reglas. Debemos aprenderlas.
"The problem is with me misunderstanding and therefore misreading the charts and coming to the wrong conclusions."
Y pense lo mismo cuando vi que cambio el formato del webinar del lunes. Pero despues me dije que si no tenemos clara las reglas elementales, ¿de que sirve avanzar en el metodo?
Dicho esto intentare aclarar algunas de las cosas que hice en este analisis (para olvidar):
- Con la nueva version de Rectangle Reader Extender indicator pense que el punto blanco que aparece en el medio de algunas velas son las que indican los limites de las zonas. No comprendi bien el sentido de ese punto. Por eso las zonas no estan bien pintadas.
- Sobre las TL, mejor nada que explicar, no por nada, como a veces ocurre dibuje lo que mis ojos querrian ver sin seguir las reglas.
Ayer por la tarde estuve leyendo detenidamente el post y viendo los errores que cometí, realicé otro analisis sobre GBPAUD, espero este algo mejor que el anterior.

Thanks for deleting those posts my friend, rules and rules and they have to be followed. I don't think this is the place to look for programmers to code your idea. There are some freelancer sites where you can hire programmers to do what you want, you can post your offer here http://www.mql5.com/en/job

Thanks again!
Alfonso

Thanks for understanding my position and posting new charts based on the issues I mentioned on my last post to you. Much better on this one, congratulations

The color problems you have with some rectangles is a bug, when you draw a rectangle right where current price action is located, it will draw the rectangle with the last color you had painted. You have to manually change the color to blue/brown and the indicator will change it appropiately.

Take a look a the attached chart, there are some levels not correctly painted a 1 missing supply zone, all in hollow yellow color!
Have a great day!
Alfonso

Hello Panoramia, thanks for the great thread. I have a question about the latest indicators, V3.2

I have read and watched the vid about the rectangle reader indi, but my question is about the supply & demand indicator. Do you recamend using this indi or not ? and if not why ?

Or do you recamend using the rectangle reader,. I could not find info on the use of the supply & demand indi.

Thanks for all your time

The automatic supply and demand indicator is something different, it does its job, sometimes well, sometimes bad. I don't use it, I draw my levels manually always since I know what it does well and it does not do. The indicator is included in the package but it's up to use it or not, I don't.

Alfonso

is there any way to use this indicators on ECN client?