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Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

  • #501
  • Mar 11, 2014 6:41pm Mar 11, 2014 6:41pm
I have been busy during the past few months and decided to start from scratch again to get back into the topic.
Currently I got everything implemented up until the adaptability. Lets see how this little indi works out.
  • #502
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:42pm Mar 11, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting Kilian19
it means exactly what it says {quote} It means that it needs 5 bars or (9 bars) to form a fractal. Fractals will be formed at the center bar. Bar Bar Fractal Bar Bar. The fractal will appear as soon as the last bar is closed.
My approach exactly plus I use a HighLow rectangle for the middle. Sometimes the middle high or low is the third candle with 2 or more after that are very close before the true fractal forms.
Robert
  • #503
  • Mar 12, 2014 1:47pm Mar 12, 2014 1:47pm
hi kilian...glad to see your back at it...question? are you using this indie for the sequencing..? "http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/attach/mq4.gif SQLite_sequence_creation V1.1.mq4 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1310427&d=1384252991) " thanks , x
  • #504
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:44pm Mar 12, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting Trader_X
hi kilian...glad to see your back at it...question? are you using this indie for the sequencing..? "{image} SQLite_sequence_creation V1.1.mq4 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1310427&d=1384252991) " thanks , x
No I don't. I wrote my own mt4 indicator and importing everything into java where I connect to a hsqldatabase. But that is just all personal preference and I feel the most comfortable that way. it's not important at all.
  • #505
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:33pm Mar 12, 2014 4:33pm
Ok thank you again and apologies for all the questions...best regards, X
  • #506
  • Mar 14, 2014 4:07pm Mar 14, 2014 4:07pm
Here are the signals my Ultimate Truth implementation generated over the last 60+ hours. Not all were winners, but all the biggest moves were caught correctly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (5 Min) 14_03_2014.jpg Size: 221 KB
  • #507
  • Mar 15, 2014 4:03am Mar 15, 2014 4:03am
Quoting OtroTrader
Here are the signals my Ultimate Truth implementation generated over the last 60+ hours. Not all were winners, but all the biggest moves were caught correctly. {image}

OtroTrader,

Good job!

G.
  • #508
  • Mar 18, 2014 10:24am Mar 18, 2014 10:24am
gg53,

one thing i noticed in your explorer that some of your trades have a large stop loss (for e.g. current nzd/usd position) that makes the system stay in the trade for a long period (not sure you are using explicit stop loss or not). The system seems to close the profitable trades in 5-10 pips while some loosing trades go in drawdown of over 50 pips. e.g. aud/usd trade on mar 6 went in drawdown of ~120 pips and then recovered and closed in profit for 4.9 pips.

this makes it somewhat like a system that opens trade and stay in them until they come back to profit. as you know that doesnt usually end well.

Is this a bug that you are trying to fix or thats the expected behaviour.

thanks for your response.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #509
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:16pm Mar 18, 2014 4:16pm
For continuity's sake, here are the next approx 60 hrs. worth of signals.

UT20140318.jpg (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1388833&stc=1&d=1395177321)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UT20140318.jpg Size: 212 KB
  • #510
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:52am Mar 19, 2014 2:52am
Hi Otrotrader,

I see that your algo is still giving a lot of false signals. This way you are not able to trade them.

Anyway so far no one seem to be able to replicate GG's indicator. There must be a missing part..
  • #511
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:47pm Mar 19, 2014 12:47pm
i have to agree with micheal lnr....there are some really good signals but they need to be filtered....but your getting there...keep up the great work and please keep posting..X
  • #512
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:18pm Mar 19, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting stt
gg53, one thing i noticed in your explorer that some of your trades have a large stop loss (for e.g. current nzd/usd position) that makes the system stay in the trade for a long period (not sure you are using explicit stop loss or not). The system seems to close the profitable trades in 5-10 pips while some loosing trades go in drawdown of over 50 pips. e.g. aud/usd trade on mar 6 went in drawdown of ~120 pips and then recovered and closed in profit for 4.9 pips. this makes it somewhat like a system that opens trade and stay in them until they come...

stt,

The algo is in recovery mode - to compensate for the previous bugs, 600 build, and lost time.
The NZDUSD is my error. I forgot to include the coming NZD news, and they announced new interest rate.
In recovery mode the system doesn't use fixed StopLoss - just reverse signal.

G.
  • #513
  • Mar 20, 2014 7:38am Mar 20, 2014 7:38am
GG53 I sent you a PM.
  • #514
  • Mar 20, 2014 1:11pm Mar 20, 2014 1:11pm
Here are the signals my Ultimate Truth implementation generated over the last 60+ hours. Not all were winners, but all the biggest moves were caught correctly.
For continuity's sake, here are the next approx 60 hrs. worth of signals.

2 line correct , just dont make those 2-14-2014 ride a gain , with these strategy there is some month in a year will get wippy with out proper filter .


K
  • #515
  • Mar 20, 2014 1:54pm Mar 20, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting K40
Here are the signals my Ultimate Truth implementation generated over the last 60+ hours. Not all were winners, but all the biggest moves were caught correctly. For continuity's sake, here are the next approx 60 hrs. worth of signals. 2 line correct , just dont make those 2-14-2014 ride a gain , with these strategy there is some month in a year will get wippy with out proper filter . K
K40,

We are missing your chart.
My algo/indie is running "out of sample" from 1.1.2013 - 15 months - not "wippy" without additional filter.

G.
  • #516
  • Mar 20, 2014 3:02pm Mar 20, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting gg53
{quote} K40, We are missing your chart. My algo/indie is running "out of sample" from 1.1.2013 - 15 months - not "wippy" without additional filter. G.
G, I think K40 was quoting OtroTrader.
  • #517
  • Mar 22, 2014 6:06pm Mar 22, 2014 6:06pm
Quoting gg53
{quote} stt, The algo is in recovery mode - to compensate for the previous bugs, 600 build, and lost time. The NZDUSD is my error. I forgot to include the coming NZD news, and they announced new interest rate. In recovery mode the system doesn't use fixed StopLoss - just reverse signal. G.
Thanks gg for your response. Agree before feb 19th, there were some obvious errors which caused big drawdowns. since then, it has been behaving very well except few trades which caused 100 pips loss before coming back to TP target.

I can understand why you would want different logic for recovery mode vs normal mode. however my view on this is that market doesnt know/care if you have had loss in previous trades or not. So unless you have seen big negative auto correlation in your trade returns, this may not improve long term performance much.

In some sense i am not sure using 5-10 pips TP target is good for long term. the % you would pay in slippage/transaction cost is quite high when you have low pips profit per trade.

anyhow good luck with your goal. it seems reachable if not for few hickups you have run into..
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #518
  • Mar 23, 2014 8:32am Mar 23, 2014 8:32am
hi everyone,

although I am a new member, I have been quietly following "ultimate truth" and this thread.
one thing I (and maybe many of you) am not sure is how to confirm the step 3, "next bar in opposite direction".

if I understand correctly, step 3 is:
1) add "0" and "1" to the current bar sequences of 3-12 strings, to create new 4-13 strings.
2) if XXX0 occurs more than XXX1 according to the set 3, then it is bearish (for 4 string)
3) repeat 2) for 5-13 strings.
4) if set 3 confirms all bearish (10/10, or 100%), it is the bearish confirmation of step 3.

is my procedure correct?

or, do we need to calculate the probability?
(i.e. if the occurrence of XXX0 is 2000 and XXX1 is 1000, the probability for XXX0 is 66% for 4 string and so on...)

or, do we need 10/10 (or 100%) confirmation? if not, what % is required?

gg53 or other members, could you please answer to my question?

thank you,
  • #519
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:41am Mar 23, 2014 9:41am
Hi GG,

First of all I see the system starts running really well. My respect.
I have a question about step 3 of the algo (next bar prediction).
Is the resident time in this step 3 only a few bars, or can it also be much longer if we have a strong up or down trend.
Your answer is appreciated very much.

BR

Huub
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #520
  • Mar 23, 2014 11:15am Mar 23, 2014 11:15am
Quoting stt
{quote} Thanks gg for your response. Agree before feb 19th, there were some obvious errors which caused big drawdowns. since then, it has been behaving very well except few trades which caused 100 pips loss before coming back to TP target. I can understand why you would want different logic for recovery mode vs normal mode. however my view on this is that market doesnt know/care if you have had loss in previous trades or not. So unless you have seen big negative auto correlation in your trade returns, this may not improve long term performance much....

stt,

You don't know the full features of that EA/System and it's recovery mode, as well as it's other features.
Big DD is hedged with unique mechanism to get out of that hedge (maybe I'll elaborate on different thread/forum).

Many Pips is not the target when you are after profits in short time.
[100 pips X 0.01 lot] is the same as [1 pip X 1 lot] ... if we are talking about NET profit.

Thanks for your wishes, I sure hope so too - it's its first live run.

G.
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