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Average Daily Range Table (ADR)

  • #21
  • Mar 18, 2014 7:39pm Mar 18, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting HedgePiglet
Hi Darran, Its an indicator so the levels are drawn automatically. I am in London so GMT +0.
Thank you HP, are you planning to post the charts every day?
  • #22
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:52am Mar 19, 2014 3:52am
Yep, thats the plan! Been busy with the afternoon sessions but will try to get it up as early as possible for all. Again, anyone want a pair, please shout.
GBPNZD passed 200 for the first time in several months yesterday. Thats an excellent sign.
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #23
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:29am Mar 19, 2014 10:29am
Quoting HedgePiglet
Yep, thats the plan! Been busy with the afternoon sessions but will try to get it up as early as possible for all. Again, anyone want a pair, please shout. GBPNZD passed 200 for the first time in several months yesterday. Thats an excellent sign. {image}
Thats curious !! I only have 63 pip range on EUR/USD for 03-18-2014. I wonder where the 72 in your list came from.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #24
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:36am Mar 19, 2014 10:36am
Quoting ForexOracle
{quote} I wonder where the 72 in your list came from.
I assume its perhaps with the small change in my midnight to midnight doesnt coincide with yours? Just checked again and it is certainly 72. Our team has found that with ADR's, a 5 day average is the most accurate average predicator of areas of action. Quite often a big day is followed by a low day.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #25
  • Mar 20, 2014 7:54am Mar 20, 2014 7:54am
Todays table.
I have changed back to my black screen as I have completed a set of presentations, and black doesnt print very well!
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #26
  • Mar 22, 2014 7:39am Mar 22, 2014 7:39am
Quoting HedgePiglet
Todays table. I have changed back to my black screen as I have completed a set of presentations, and black doesnt print very well! {image}
Good work.

A couple things I wonder about

1) The spreads -
2) The value of a pip in terms of your base currency eg GBP per pip

It's just I don't like a trade to have to go 10 or 15 pips the right way before it starts to notch up a realisable profit.
  • #27
  • Mar 24, 2014 7:17am Mar 24, 2014 7:17am
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} Good work. A couple things I wonder about 1) The spreads - 2) The value of a pip in terms of your base currency eg GBP per pip It's just I don't like a trade to have to go 10 or 15 pips the right way before it starts to notch up a realisable profit.
Hi wiseambition, thanks for your comments.
1) In terms of spreads, the values on the table do not take these into account, they work purely on price. We are fortunate to enjoy aggressive spreads on our accounts and will choose those that we can trade in and out of with a relatively high frequency without too much consideration for transaction costs. We do have a new member of our team out of Darwin in Australia who trades with a dead-standard retail account, and I admit he is sometimes frustrated by the expense.

2) Your question as to pip value is a subjective one and will be based on your own money management policy. The pips reflected in the table are actual pips moved from top to bottom, with the exception of ES (S&P) which uses a formula based on the USD. In laypersons terms, however, a 'point multiplier' of approx 4:1 will convert the points into pips, so the 23 of last week is in fact circa 100 pips. But again, only on ES.

3) Its a diversion from this topic, but our studies use Stochastic in support of signal so we tend to see (initially anyway) the price move very consistently with the signal, but yes, in my mind it does always feel like it takes 40 seconds to go to -10, and half an hour to get to +5!
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #28
  • Mar 24, 2014 7:19am Mar 24, 2014 7:19am
Hello.
Todays table the 24th of March 2014.
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #29
  • Mar 24, 2014 7:47pm Mar 24, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} Hi wiseambition, thanks for your comments. 1) In terms of spreads, the values on the table do not take these into account, they work purely on price. We are fortunate to enjoy aggressive spreads on our accounts and will choose those that we can trade in and out of with a relatively high frequency without too much consideration for transaction costs. We do have a new member of our team out of Darwin in Australia who trades with a dead-standard retail account, and I admit he is sometimes frustrated by the expense. 2) Your question as to pip...
Thanks for your interpretation

My thoughts are we need to bear in mind that

1) Spreads on some pairs like Gbp to Aud are higher, indeed with one of my brokers they are wider even than Aud to Usd and Ggb to Usd together! The point I'd make is although GbpAud might be more volatile than AudUsd, and offers great opportunities, the price has to move quite a few pips to be profitable, and the odds are stacked up more against losing. Obviously the benefit of catching the trend the right side is considerably greater compared with a steady pair say Euro against Swisse, and your table highlights this beautifully

2) In a sterling account, I think I'd be right in saying a cross like GbpNzd has to move more to make the same difference of pounds due to its gearing (1.9285 now)against the pound, but on a pair like EurGbp, it is going to make about twice the difference in ££ to the account per pip.

I'll keep an eye on your work and if I can fathom out how to factor in the gearing and spread I'll share my ideas later
  • #30
  • Mar 25, 2014 6:01am Mar 25, 2014 6:01am
Quoting wiseambition
{quote}I'll keep an eye on your work and if I can fathom out how to factor in the gearing and spread I'll share my ideas later
Morning WA,
I have tried to keep it as linear an equation as possible so everyone reading this gets the same basic. On USDDKK at the moment (a high range pair) I am only paying a 1.3pip spread, where I have seen retail accounts online as high as 35 pips for the same trade. The maths becomes tricky trying to account for it. The thinking by proxy should be, if people reading this see a pair that they only pay 0.5 pip per trade on, and it has a reasonable daily range, the idea is they are likely to get access to more pips in any given trading session. If they are paying 10 pips to trade and the range is only 50, they're going to have a tough time of it. But, since I am a bit of a geek when it comes to maths, I am always willing to hear new ideas and ways to strip something down.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #31
  • Mar 25, 2014 6:03am Mar 25, 2014 6:03am
Good morning all:
Todays table, the 25th of March 2014. Ranges of 100-ish on the bigger pairs. Horrific.

A reminder: If anyone wants a specific pair, please don't be shy just ask.
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #32
  • Mar 27, 2014 5:14am Mar 27, 2014 5:14am
Todays table. 27 March '14
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #33
  • Mar 28, 2014 7:49am Mar 28, 2014 7:49am
Todays Table: 28 March 2014
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #34
  • Apr 8, 2014 6:00am Apr 8, 2014 6:00am
Hi folks, sorry for the lag in updates, I moved house! (And BT were a little sluggish to reconnect me...)
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #35
  • Apr 23, 2014 9:01am Apr 23, 2014 9:01am
Todays table...best summarised with the following Acronym...'LOL'
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #36
  • May 6, 2014 11:00pm May 6, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} Hi fxdm1. Its self-compiled, as I use to to plot the actual ranges on my chart and use various levels as targets when in a trade. I'll show a grab so you can see how it looks. We know that a currency has over an 80% chance of hitting its 75% ADR so its useful to see when this happens and how far price is from this point. Will post todays table in a new message. I dont mind doing it daily and it only updates at midnight anyway so its not a live requirement. I am at my desk most of the time anyway if anyone needs it sent to them? {image}
I use these 'parabolic foldover' edges to get a jump on trend direction changes - the more parabolic, with the HLs / LHs contained within them, the better - entering there, and using the HLs (uptrend) / LHs (down trend) as trailing stops, to stay in the trade....the harder part is deciding to trade the sub-trends/pullbacks, with their little HLs/LHs for short scalps, or being more efficient and using the 'bigger', more obvious, more significant HLs/LHs in a large fast trend, usually deciding based on how fast the price action is, which takes some screentime...

I have never incorporated ADR into trade expectation, however....
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  • #37
  • May 7, 2014 3:50am May 7, 2014 3:50am
Todays Table 07 May 2014. Ignore the first column (its been added to assist us with a 'call to action')
Column 1 (Amber) - Yesterdays range
Column 2 (Red) - 5 Day ADR
Column 3 (Blue) - 10 Day ADR
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #38
  • May 12, 2014 4:06pm May 12, 2014 4:06pm
Would you think of experimenting to find out the ADR of certain instruments which are not actually forex?

I could give the examples of FTSE100 and DAX30 share indeces, and perhaps some commodities like Mini Russell 2000

At the end of the day we don't care what product we are trading, we are only interested in movements, and pips, and therefore this means markets which really do move! Allied of course to a reasonably thin bid-offer spread, and hopefully where price shifts in cycles just as it does with currency crosses

Thank you
  • #39
  • May 14, 2014 3:52am May 14, 2014 3:52am
Quoting wiseambition
Would you think of experimenting to find out the ADR of certain instruments...At the end of the day we don't care what product we are trading, we are only interested in movements, and pips, and therefore this means markets which really do move!
Hi wiseambition,
No problem at all. I was putting several non-fx instruments up for a while but they didnt get much interest. If you can give me the symbol you want to look at I'll pop it up.
Personally I trade NQ, ES and YM at the moment and only accasionally FX so I emphatically agree, we dont care about the product, its what we can make with it at the moment.

HP
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #40
  • May 14, 2014 4:30am May 14, 2014 4:30am
I'm interested in the DAX please.
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