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  • #3,261
  • Mar 19, 2014 11:51am Mar 19, 2014 11:51am
like the way the DOW is bouncing around its open, one minute positive then negative, confusing folk taking orders each time only to make those cheeks squeeze harder
  • #3,262
  • Mar 19, 2014 11:55am Mar 19, 2014 11:55am
Quoting The Fool
I have been talking about fading TLT's trips to $109 all year....missed em all.... {image}
switch to a weekly chart on TLT and there to me it shows that TLT surpassing $109 technically
  • #3,263
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:25pm Mar 19, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting njr
Hi all, Looks like a positive start for Monday. I’m looking forward to the end of this week with multiple expirations taking place. Summary of positions: DKS BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 47 PUT @ 0.1 SOLD DKS Mar21'14 48 PUT @ 0.15 SOLD DKS Mar21'14 60 CALL @ 0.175 BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 62.5 PUT @ 0.025 SHLD SOLD SHLD Mar21'14 57.5 CALL (SHLD) @AMEX @ 0.23 SOLD SHLD Mar21'14 28 PUT (SHLD) @AMEX @ 0.12 ES Mini SOLD ES FOP Mar21'14 1690 PUT @GLOBEX @ 1.25 ES Mini SOLD ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 5.25‏ All positions are currently in profit with...
Hi all,

I decided to close my position ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @5.25. I bought back the option for 4.2 as I am keen to lock in profit prior to the outcome of the fed meeting. The market is clearly in wait and see mode. If the market pulls back after the meeting then I will look to sell some more ES mini PUTs around the 1680-1700 level. If the market catapults higher then I'll look to sell some CALLs but I'll keep the DTE relatively short (1 to 2 weeks).

All other positions remain and are still in profit and will expire this Friday.

I'm also watching GES who are reporting earnings later in the session. Currently good IV for this stock and I will look at doing an IC closer to market close.
  • #3,264
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:27pm Mar 19, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo
Hey TF,

If IV was higher then I would look to sell some PUTs on the VIX but currently the profit to margin use doesn't justify it. However, this could be a good buy opportunity if it does move higher by then....
  • #3,265
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:28pm Mar 19, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{image} Vladdy says give up the S&P 2,000 booty bitchez or he'll drive a division of these right down Wall Street while Obama hides under his desk in the Oval Office.
Lol - Nice one TF. Although ma Yellen may trump Vladdy with whatever she says today.....
  • #3,266
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:51pm Mar 19, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Lol - Nice one TF. Although ma Yellen may trump Vladdy with whatever she says today.....
I expect equities to bounce and treasurys to fall, ^VIX to keep sliding. The taper is priced in and Wall Street is not worried about Putin. Until treasury yields climb up beyond (10Y) 3.0%, we will see steady gains in the US stock indices.

I could be wrong, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,267
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:12pm Mar 19, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I expect equities to bounce and treasurys to fall, ^VIX to keep sliding. The taper is priced in and Wall Street is not worried about Putin. Until treasury yields climb up beyond (10Y) 3.0%, we will see steady gains in the US stock indices. I could be wrong, though....
equities drop but so does ^VIX.... fade the drop?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,268
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:23pm Mar 19, 2014 2:23pm
New Order Placed:

ES FOP Mar 28'14 1695 PUT @ 1.00

Hopefully filled before market close.
  • #3,269
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:32pm Mar 19, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting njr
New Order Placed: ES FOP Mar 28'14 1695 PUT @ 1.00 Hopefully filled before market close.
sell em all day, buddy, S&P will be fine....until the bond market says...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,270
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:33pm Mar 19, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I expect equities to bounce and treasurys to fall, ^VIX to keep sliding. The taper is priced in and Wall Street is not worried about Putin. Until treasury yields climb up beyond (10Y) 3.0%, we will see steady gains in the US stock indices. I could be wrong, though....
^TNX 2.68 to 2.78 today alone....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,271
  • Edited 11:01pm Mar 19, 2014 2:43pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ^TNX 2.68 to 2.78 today alone....
treasurys down, equities down, gold down.....something's gotta give....


http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfund...rrons&ru=yahoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,272
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:01pm Mar 19, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} sell em all day, buddy, S&P will be fine....until the bond market says...
Thanks TF - It didn't get filled prior to market close but I'll leave it on overnight / tomorrow and see what the Asia session can do....
  • #3,273
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:02pm Mar 19, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} treaurys down, equities down, gold down.....something's gotta give.... http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfund...rrons&ru=yahoo

just a watcher, will try to get in something new tomorrow. Of any of the above I'd expect gold to rebound first, am watching the gold/miner etf's
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,274
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:16pm Mar 19, 2014 3:16pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} switch to a weekly chart on TLT and there to me it shows that TLT surpassing $109 technically
if the takeaway from today's FOMC is the notion of Fed hiking rates earlier than had been thought, we should see Treasurys go up.....maybe not all that cut & dry, though....I am still digesting....

We are due more volatility in the Treasurys, though, I am looking at TLT/TBT....will be in something by Monday I expect....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,275
  • Mar 19, 2014 5:03pm Mar 19, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting The Fool
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo Apr $39 EWZ long puts are prolly not a bearish bet, as the headline says, but cheap insurance on bullish stock accumulation (as the commentator says)...? (pretty heavy volume in shares today...) EWZ might as well get bought along wit everything else. Apr $42.50 calls @ $0.35, May $44c @ $0.30... {image}
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo

EWZ caught a pop today, finished up 0.45%. EEM down 2.13% @ $38.57 ....?

EEM 52-wk low @$37, end of Jan '14
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,276
  • Mar 20, 2014 1:01am Mar 20, 2014 1:01am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} treasurys down, equities down, gold down.....something's gotta give.... http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfund...rrons&ru=yahoo
overnight looking like equities will rebound, coming into Mar expiry, boy I don't have a clue. I did win $50 on a $5 lotto scratcher today, though, I was able to buy cat food.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,277
  • Mar 20, 2014 1:25am Mar 20, 2014 1:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} overnight looking like equities will rebound, coming into Mar expiry, boy I don't have a clue. I did win $50 on a $5 lotto scratcher today, though, I was able to buy cat food.....
Lol - nice trade on the scratcher TF

It'll be interesting to see what the market does today post me Yellen's forward guidance overview. I'm also going to watch what reaction the home sales and philly manufacturing index will have as well - perhaps they'll set some direction.....
  • #3,278
  • Mar 20, 2014 1:45am Mar 20, 2014 1:45am
Quoting njr
{quote} Lol - nice trade on the scratcher TF It'll be interesting to see what the market does today post me Yellen's forward guidance overview. I'm also going to watch what reaction the home sales and philly manufacturing index will have as well - perhaps they'll set some direction.....
idk, it might take a couple days and the start of a new cycle (next week) for the dust to settle. I think Ma Yellen's show today left the markets thinking a) the Fed is more hawkish than had been imagined and are really sighting in on a funds rate hike in 2014, and b) Yellen threw reference to the unemployment rate benchmark (as a basis for any Fed policy tweaks) out the window and this left a note of uncertainty that could ring for some time.

Both of the above could arguably slow down or even stop the equity bull markets, but I ain't calling top, not today anyway...

for now, all call sells I have expiring this week look safe, so I can't complain.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,279
  • Mar 20, 2014 2:01am Mar 20, 2014 2:01am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Both of the above could arguably slow down or even stop the equity bull markets, but I ain't calling top, not today anyway... for
pricing Jun SPXU call debit spreads, though - volume/OI thin. SDS calls better, Mays are there, Jun would give room to spread w/ short calls a couple or more times....

SDS Jun $35c @ $0.48...

Could also do SSO put spreads...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,280
  • Mar 20, 2014 9:22am Mar 20, 2014 9:22am
Quoting njr
{quote} Lol - nice trade on the scratcher TF It'll be interesting to see what the market does today post me Yellen's forward guidance overview. I'm also going to watch what reaction the home sales and philly manufacturing index will have as well - perhaps they'll set some direction.....
Data released - equities push higher and it looks like we are back on the path to 1900

Unless President Obama's announcement today delivers a surprise!
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