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  • #121
  • Mar 18, 2014 11:08am Mar 18, 2014 11:08am
Hey risk, nice top down analysis there. However, I see to the bottom of the "BUND-INTRADAY" chart, are pieces of what I assume to be the cumulative delta on the charts. Do you use this as a confirmation of your trade entry or is the DOM the sole trigger? I'm still trying to piece together how to use the DOM, ala youtube, but finding reliable info is proving to be difficult. Confirming my entry is a bit trouble some.

Kinspk,
1.I assume that the arrow is the POC.
2.The colour setting is from red to green. (Color Scheme1) Judging from the lack of green within the profile to the right, I would assume that the day's session is incomplete. I stand to be corrected. The MP indicator I've used for MT4 was a bit different. Infact I think it used volume.
3.The time settings, if I interpret the instructions correctly, just create the amount of profiles that you want in the look back period. (1, 2, 3 4 days etc)
Glad to see you in here.
  • #122
  • Mar 18, 2014 1:19pm Mar 18, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting kinspk
Hi Risk Surfer, nice analysis in this thread, had some nice reading the pdf you posted too. Btw I had downloaded the mt4 indicator you posted, and I have some doubts to clarify. 1. Is the arrow I referring is the Point of Control? 2. If it is, what's the reason for the different length of POC in each session? 3. I realised the time start doesn't change even when I modify the time settings, is there a workaround to my prefer session? Sorry if you do not use the indicator in mt4 at all. {image}
Hey Kinspk,

Yes that's the POC, I wish I could answer your questions better but I'm not familiar with the MT4 platform and this indicator does seem very inflexible, I have played around with the settings and have the same result as you, inability to edit the start date. I'm in the process of hunting around for a better one.

Thanks for dropping in,

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #123
  • Mar 18, 2014 1:24pm Mar 18, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting springger
Hey risk, nice top down analysis there. However, I see to the bottom of the "BUND-INTRADAY" chart, are pieces of what I assume to be the cumulative delta on the charts. Do you use this as a confirmation of your trade entry or is the DOM the sole trigger? I'm still trying to piece together how to use the DOM, ala youtube, but finding reliable info is proving to be difficult. Confirming my entry is a bit trouble some. Kinspk, 1.I assume that the arrow is the POC. 2.The colour setting is from red to green. (Color Scheme1) Judging from the lack...
Hey Spring, yep good spot... I tried to hide it, but...

I don't use delta for entries really, It's there more for an additional gauge of who's in control. For example if the delta is moving sharply higher (indicating a lot of traders lifting the offer) but price fails to move up as aggressively, this tells me that the sellers are actually in control as they absorbing all of the strong buying. That's one of the ways I use it, there are quite a few others, I'll definitely cover them here at some point.

BTW, is there any chance you could upload your MT4 profile indicator? I'm assuming it uses tick volume? No worries if not

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #124
  • Edited 6:51pm Mar 18, 2014 4:14pm | Edited 6:51pm
As requested by the OP, here is the MT4 MP/VP indicator.

All credit is due to the creator, BANDUNG. This was found in the Auction Market Thread. Also attached is a screenshot of the user controls he created. Be advised, the version posted here is 1.31 rev1 as the original version had a few bugs in it.
*With the advent of MT4 version 600 and beyond, I have no idea if this indicator will work.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ay-MarketProfileDWM.v1.31.rev1.mq4   36 KB | 1,849 downloads
  • #125
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:37am Mar 19, 2014 4:37am
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} Hey Dave, I'm based in the UK too, the only major clearer we have here is Marex, and they are not particularly accessible by retail traders. There's no problem with having a US based broker, you can still keep your funds in GBP, they just loan you $ or Euros on margin to trade whatever you want. I probably shouldn't be recommending brokers publicly, and I'm not allowed to PM you being a commercial member, but if you shoot me an email at [email protected] I can point you in the right direction. Regarding...
Hi RS
I managed to get a trial Sierra chart running with data feed from S5 demo account. S5 helped with instructions.
I have had a little play with adding the Volume by Price study, see chart attached, I see you also tried Sierra chart on post #113.

Would you have any settings / templates that you could share?
I want to try and learn from your signals when I subscribe.
Dave
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  • #126
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:04am Mar 19, 2014 8:04am
Quoting springger
As requested by the OP, here is the MT4 MP/VP indicator. All credit is due to the creator, BANDUNG. This was found in the Auction Market Thread. Also attached is a screenshot of the user controls he created. Be advised, the version posted here is 1.31 rev1 as the original version had a few bugs in it. *With the advent of MT4 version 600 and beyond, I have no idea if this indicator will work. {image} {file}
That's great, thanks to you and of course Bandung for his hard work
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #127
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:06am Mar 19, 2014 8:06am
Quoting 236dave
{quote} Hi RS I managed to get a trial Sierra chart running with data feed from S5 demo account. S5 helped with instructions. I have had a little play with adding the Volume by Price study, see chart attached, I see you also tried Sierra chart on post #113. Would you have any settings / templates that you could share? I want to try and learn from your signals when I subscribe. Dave{image}
Hey Dave,

I've asked a colleague who uses Sierra and he kindly offered his templates for posting. Unfortunately I can't give you and advice on setup as I don't currently use that package, but here's the file anyway, let me know how you get on

RS

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip SierraVolumeProfile.cht.zip   52 KB | 1,943 downloads
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #128
  • Edited 9:44am Mar 19, 2014 8:41am | Edited 9:44am
S&P 500

Weekly – Looking at the weekly chart we can see just how clear this up trend in stocks has been since the peak of the financial crisis in mid 2009. This trend is particularly stable as it is steep without being ‘parabolic’ i.e. the gradient of the slope remaining constant, this is the sign of a healthy trend. The biggest pullback occurred in Summer 2011 over the debt ceiling fears, the pullback seemed very dramatic at the time, however given the action that followed it now looks moderately insignificant. It would be easy to imagine a second pullback, maybe even as deep as 1600, and the uptrend would still remain intact. It’s quite amusing when permabears such as Zero Hedge are calling the collapse of the financial system when the S&P trades down 1-2%. One look at the weekly chart tells you all you need to know about the health of the stock market.

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From a fundamental perspective this is largely due to the Quantitative easing policies that have been in place since the depth of the financial crisis, however it is interesting to note that the much feared ‘tapering’ began in December 2013, and stocks are still bouncing around their highs. Unlike some, I feel there is genuine stability and growth behind the strength of the stock market, and it will take a serious event (geo political or otherwise) to unearth this trend.

Moving to a volume chart we can see a Value area between the 900 and 1400 levels. However, since this market is in an overall trend, the value areas (which normally represent balance) do not mean much from a technical perspective. The key takeaway from this volume chart is that there are some very prominent high and low volume nodes (I am more interested in the high volume) that should give us some reaction (support) if we trade down to them.

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I am MUCH more aggressive in looking for longs in this market for obvious reasons, I will be very cautious on shorts unless there is an extremely good level to lean on as resistance. This approach remains valid even if the market is trading down 2-3% off its highs, as it has done early this year (2014).


When we check the daily chart, we can see the selloff in January was completely taken back to make new all time highs in February. The highs left behind in December/January were very weak and it was very likely they wouldn’t hold as a major swing point. The more recent pullback (caused by the Crimea news) in March was much more shallow and the majority of it has taken back. This market is still looking extremely healthy and my hand in firmly off the sell button. I did take one short trade yesterday at 1864.50, as this was a very nice High volume node left by the recent action around all time highs (seen clearly on the 120 minute rolling chart). However I did not overstay the short due to the bullish nature of the market. This level is still holding as resistance (we are re-accepting the 1865.00 level) but I feel we are due for another push higher, perhaps to all time highs by the end of the week.



Since we are looking mostly for longs, it is wise to check the daily chart for major levels that may hold as support. The most prominent high volume nodes are 1865 (may hold as support if we break higher and retest it). 1829.50, 1791.25 and 1774.50. I would expect all of these levels to hold as some kind of support if they should be retested. (Unless the sell off in fundamentally driven by economic data etc.)

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For shorts to be taken seriously, I think it’s very important they push price below (and sustain) the key low volume node at 1800 (also a psychosocial round number). This is something I will be watching very closely. If there is a swift move down through 1800 towards the 1774.50 High volume node, then I will assume that sellers are in short term control, and will start looking for shorts more aggressively.

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Lets drill down to the intraday chart. As discussed, I am only looking for longs at this point. So I have no short levels in place. My first long level is at 1851-51.50. This is the open gap from the 17th-18th March. It is also the VPOC from the 17th March, I like this confluence and I would expect a bounce if we should trade down here again.
The next long level is down at 1840.75-41.25. This is purely the VPOC from Friday 14th March’s session, not usually enough to expect a bounce, but given the bullish nature of the market, the probability of it working is greatly increased.
The third long level is at 1833.75-34.25. This is the open gap from the close of Friday 14th March (also a weekly gap giving it more significance). This is also a minor low volume node, seen on the rolling 120-minute chart.

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Near-term target for shorts – 1829.50 High volume node (daily chart)
Long term target for shorts – 1800.00 Low volume node and psychological level

Near-term target for longs– 1877.75 – All time high
Long-term target for longs – 1900.00 – Psychological level
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #129
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:18am Mar 19, 2014 10:18am
TA great as usual.

Two question regarding the TA...
1. on the 120min chart, what are the settings for the volume profile. Do you have a fixed period of say 50 bars, or all bars on screen or monthly?
2. on your last chart you have 3 areas which you are looking, why have you chose those... I see VPOC, but from earlier in the thread you have said you just don't take any VPOC?


Regarding your FA thoughts, not sure I agree.

Isn't really a fundamental thread, but when Klarman, Soros, Buffett and Icahn are singing from a similar hymn sheet it is time to pay attention. The interest rate hike is the elephant in the room, greater cost of borrowing, less corporate profits, lower bond prices and a higher discount rate tends to equal less lofty stock prices. Shiller PE tells us stocks aren't cheap, margin to debt ratio says many people are already all in and much more, GDP to market caps tells us that the stock market is worth more than the entire GDP, labour force statistic say unemployment is an underestimate.

The point is as we approach the interest rate hike we do so with great uncertainty. Stocks are priced for 10% growth going forward, are we going to get that growth going forward? My guess is no. No shorting right now from me, but in my stock account (long term holding) I have been almost entirely cash since mid December.

The zerohedgers are a pain in the ass, but data is data.
  • #130
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:58am Mar 20, 2014 6:58am
Quoting springger
As requested by the OP, here is the MT4 MP/VP indicator. All credit is due to the creator, BANDUNG. This was found in the Auction Market Thread. Also attached is a screenshot of the user controls he created. Be advised, the version posted here is 1.31 rev1 as the original version had a few bugs in it. *With the advent of MT4 version 600 and beyond, I have no idea if this indicator will work. {image} {file}
Thanks Bro Springger for the MT4 indicator. But somehow the lookback setting seems to miss at least 1 trading day. (See attached) If you have Skype and doesn't mind sharing your knowledge on this indicator, I will like to learn something from you, do PM me if you feel convenient.

Bro Risk Surfer, I am sorry, doesn't mean to hijack your thread, just anxious to fix this indicator, so that maybe I can in-sync with your analysis thru mt4.. Anyway, I'll will still remain a silent reader here, do continue your great analysis.
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The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #131
  • Edited 10:34am Mar 20, 2014 9:50am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting MCRotter
TA great as usual. Two question regarding the TA... 1. on the 120min chart, what are the settings for the volume profile. Do you have a fixed period of say 50 bars, or all bars on screen or monthly? 2. on your last chart you have 3 areas which you are looking, why have you chose those... I see VPOC, but from earlier in the thread you have said you just don't take any VPOC?
Hey MCR,

1. the 120min charts VP looks back 120 days only, so when a new day comes an old day falls off the back if that makes sense, just gives me a big picture view but weighted to only include more recent/relevant data

2. Two reasons for this, I think I mentioned in the analysis that I wouldn't usually take something like a VPOC in isolation, but given how bullish we are on the larger timeframes I have more confidence in doing this. If we were balancing on the larger timeframes (going no where basically) then I wouldn't take that entry. Additionally that is a particularly 'good looking' VPOC, not something I can explain well especially over text. But some VPOCs just look good and some don't, regarding the volume distribution either side of it.
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #132
  • Mar 20, 2014 9:56am Mar 20, 2014 9:56am
Quoting MCRotter
Regarding your FA thoughts, not sure I agree. Isn't really a fundamental thread, but when Klarman, Soros, Buffett and Icahn are singing from a similar hymn sheet it is time to pay attention. The interest rate hike is the elephant in the room, greater cost of borrowing, less corporate profits, lower bond prices and a higher discount rate tends to equal less lofty stock prices. Shiller PE tells us stocks aren't cheap, margin to debt ratio says many people are already all in and much more, GDP to market caps tells us that the stock market is worth...
Makes sense, I'm sure you're far more qualified to discuss FA than me, I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to fundamentals (Partly because I'm not smart enough and partly because I intentionally make it this way so I don't end up with any groundless bias that might affect my decisions)

My view is that, all the info regarding interest rate hikes and excessive PE ratios excessive debt etc are known by market participants and yet stocks remain resilient, this makes me feel that there is an underlying strength to the market that people aren't giving it credit for. additionally I think there are too many bears out there still for us to be forming a top. I think history shows us that tops usually occur when the last bears die and everyone is excessively bullish. That's just my opinion but as a I said, pretty worthless I know
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #133
  • Mar 20, 2014 9:59am Mar 20, 2014 9:59am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro Risk Surfer, I am sorry, doesn't mean to hijack your thread, just anxious to fix this indicator, so that maybe I can in-sync with your analysis thru mt4.. Anyway, I'll will still remain a silent reader here, do continue your great analysis. {image} {image}
Hey no worries, I'm all for making VP more accessible to people, I know the indicators are more complex than your average MACD or RSI
Thanks for your vote of confidence regarding analysis too

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #134
  • Mar 20, 2014 10:04am Mar 20, 2014 10:04am
Quoting Risk Surfer
. As discussed, I am only looking for longs at this point. So I have no short levels in place. My first long level is at 1851-51.50. This is the open gap from the 17th-18th March. It is also the VPOC from the 17th March, I like this confluence and I would expect a bounce if we should trade down here again. The next long level is down at 1840.75-41.25. This is purely the VPOC from Friday 14th March’s session, not usually enough to expect a bounce, but given the bullish nature of the market, the probability of it working is greatly increased.
So the first level (1851.50) got wiped during FOMC, and then the market bounced 3 ticks ahead of the second level (1841.25), before rallying 80 ticks or so higher. In all truthfulness, neither trade should have been taken during the news, Tier one risk events such as FOMC are a pretty big gamble and the volatility can be excessive.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #135
  • Mar 20, 2014 11:09am Mar 20, 2014 11:09am
Hi Surfer.....

What other scheduled news, other than FOMC, qualify as "Tier 1" events? Thanks for the informative forum here and website!
  • #136
  • Mar 21, 2014 6:39am Mar 21, 2014 6:39am
Quoting tonyjoe55
Hi Surfer..... What other scheduled news, other than FOMC, qualify as "Tier 1" events? Thanks for the informative forum here and website!
Hey TJ, good question,

Off the top of my head

Tier 1
FOMC statement
FOMC minutes
NFP
ECB press conference (mostly affecting european fixed income markets)
BOE interest rate policy statement (affecting gilts, ftse and GBP)
US GDP (first reading)
China PMI

Tier 2
ISM manufacturing
ISM non manufacturing
US CPI, PPI and PCE (all inflation numbers)
Philadelphia fed
Chicago Fed
Housing sales and housing starts figures

I'll add to this list if I think of any more
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #137
  • Mar 21, 2014 6:41am Mar 21, 2014 6:41am
First attempt at a video... go easy on me... lol

Inserted Video



RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #138
  • Mar 21, 2014 10:19am Mar 21, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Risk Surfer
First attempt at a video... go easy on me... lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=p1DD6tL3M1E RS

Very well explained RS, as all of your materials. THanks a lot man, keep it up. Best vibes!
  • #139
  • Mar 22, 2014 7:57am Mar 22, 2014 7:57am
Nice work RS. As i get it, you will place a PO at that level? Won't it be safer to monitor the DOM for signs of sellers stepping in? Lastly, just a shot in the dark here, any chance you can show what absorption looks like on a DOM, ala video?
  • #140
  • Mar 22, 2014 8:52am Mar 22, 2014 8:52am
Quoting springger
Nice work RS. As i get it, you will place a PO at that level? Won't it be safer to monitor the DOM for signs of sellers stepping in? Lastly, just a shot in the dark here, any chance you can show what absorption looks like on a DOM, ala video?
Springger, I think monitoring your DOM for signs, either for sell or buy, it is not always the best choice, having into account that, I'd say most of the orders you see on it are nothing but fake. But this is just my opinion, surely, RS has a better argument for this.Cheers!
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