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VantagePoint discussion thread

  • #581
  • Jun 19, 2006 2:11am Jun 19, 2006 2:11am
Quoting BeachBum
My 30 day free trial of Genesis data has just expired. I have some observations to make relating to previous discussions in this thread:

Genesis data more closely matched the data from my broker (FXCM) and the FX Interbank MT4 demo account I have been using. This translated into greater profits from the two mechanical trading systems I am using based on VP software. (One "set & forget" system has been thoroughly discussed in this thread, the other is still under development.) The predicted following day's highs and lows were more accurate with Genesis data and therefore my systems performed better. This is the only advantage for me to use Genesis data.

I hope this helps.
Hi Beachbum


Thanks for this, can you advise by how much the system performed under Genesis data e.g averagre pips per trade

Cheers
  • #582
  • Jun 30, 2006 10:01am Jun 30, 2006 10:01am
Hello everybody,

I'm a new VP user from Poland . Is it possible to use another data provider then CRB an CSI ? I use CRB, but data is supplied at 00:00 my local time . It'll be much more convenient for me to upload data earlier. Perhaps any European data vendor would be suitable ?
Could you help me ?
  • #583
  • Jun 30, 2006 11:36am Jun 30, 2006 11:36am
Quoting MarcinWil
Hello everybody,

I'm a new VP user from Poland . Is it possible to use another data provider then CRB an CSI ? I use CRB, but data is supplied at 00:00 my local time . It'll be much more convenient for me to upload data earlier. Perhaps any European data vendor would be suitable ?
Could you help me ?
Data Providers in the US provide their services after the NY markets close at 5PM ET (21:00 GMT). I use CSI, in part, because I get my data by 5:15 which allows me to catch early predicted highs and lows. I don't think you want earlier data unless you intend to establish a "trading day" that is different (earlier) than most VP users. If so, why not send VP an e-mail and ask about other data providers, perhaps in Europe?
  • #584
  • Jun 30, 2006 2:50pm Jun 30, 2006 2:50pm
Quoting BeachBum
Data Providers in the US provide their services after the NY markets close at 5PM ET (21:00 GMT). I use CSI, in part, because I get my data by 5:15 which allows me to catch early predicted highs and lows. I don't think you want earlier data unless you intend to establish a "trading day" that is different (earlier) than most VP users. If so, why not send VP an e-mail and ask about other data providers, perhaps in Europe?
Hi BeachBum,
Do you get your data by 5:15 ET ? I use CRB and data is available by 5 PM ct.

All the best,

Marcin.
  • #585
  • Jun 30, 2006 4:46pm Jun 30, 2006 4:46pm
Quoting MarcinWil
Hi BeachBum,
Do you get your data by 5:15 ET ? I use CRB and data is available by 5 PM ct.

All the best,

Marcin.
5:15 PM Eastern Time
  • #586
  • Jul 9, 2006 11:56am Jul 9, 2006 11:56am
Hi,
What do you think about this idea ?
I wait for signal when five indicators ( predicted short and medium term trend, predicted high an low difference and predicted neural index ) are coherent. Then I set:
entry at predicted next day low + 0.4 * (pndhigh-pndlow)
stoploss at pndlow
profittarget at 3R
I move my stop everyday . It's for long position, short is analogical.
I'm not a daytrader. I'm trying to bulid system which allows me to set order (entry point ,stop,pt) every evening and that's all.
Do you have any suggestion, tip ?

Good trading for all.
  • #587
  • Jul 10, 2006 7:47am Jul 10, 2006 7:47am
Quoting MarcinWil
Hi,
What do you think about this idea ?
I wait for signal when five indicators ( predicted short and medium term trend, predicted high an low difference and predicted neural index ) are coherent. Then I set:
entry at predicted next day low + 0.4 * (pndhigh-pndlow)
stoploss at pndlow
profittarget at 3R
I move my stop everyday . It's for long position, short is analogical.
I'm not a daytrader. I'm trying to bulid system which allows me to set order (entry point ,stop,pt) every evening and that's all.
Do you have any suggestion, tip ?

Good trading for all.
Hello MW...

Here are a few observations based on much research and use of VP:

IMO you will find very few occasions when all the indicators you list are coherent, meaning few trades. When the market is ranging, I don't think you will reach your profit target. And when the market is trending, you won't hit the entry point to trigger the trade. This is because the accuracy of VP daily predictions varies according to market conditions: greater accuracy when ranging, less accuracy when trending. And finally, if you do enter a trade in a ranging market, your stop loss should be outside of the predicted range, otherwise it is very likely you will get stopped out.

However, I think you should forward test your strategy and share the results. Or you might want to do some backtesting with one or two currency pairs. We all learn from the experiences and work done by others here at FF.
  • #588
  • Jul 12, 2006 1:22pm Jul 12, 2006 1:22pm
hello everybody..

I'm newbie here in this forum.. I've seen nice discussion here with a good reviews of this system..
I'm curious to know more about this system. The system analyze market based on offline or online data (live)?

regards,
  • #589
  • Jul 12, 2006 2:45pm Jul 12, 2006 2:45pm
Quoting wraz
hello everybody..

I'm newbie here in this forum.. I've seen nice discussion here with a good reviews of this system..
I'm curious to know more about this system. The system analyze market based on offline or online data (live)?

regards,
wraz.........

What "system" are you asking about?
  • #590
  • Jul 13, 2006 11:16am Jul 13, 2006 11:16am
Quoting BeachBum
wraz.........

What "system" are you asking about?
I'm sorry..I missed this thread for long page..Hopefuly by the end of this weekend, i'll finish it. Have nice discussion here and good reviews of this sofware. This VP software looks awesome. Actually, I'm asking for this valuable software. Just curious..Thank you.
  • #591
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:32pm Jul 13, 2006 3:32pm
Quoting wraz
I'm sorry..I missed this thread for long page..Hopefuly by the end of this weekend, i'll finish it. Have nice discussion here and good reviews of this sofware. This VP software looks awesome. Actually, I'm asking for this valuable software. Just curious..Thank you.
wraz....

VP is not a "trading system". It is a software program that provides market predictions on a daily basis. Please read the other threads here at FF about this software and how it can be used............it's not inexpensive or a shortcut to getting rich.
  • #592
  • Jul 15, 2006 12:37pm Jul 15, 2006 12:37pm
http://www.tradertech.com/video.asp

NEW!!! Vantage point video....
  • #593
  • Jul 15, 2006 1:31pm Jul 15, 2006 1:31pm
Quoting baddison
http://www.tradertech.com/video.asp

NEW!!! Vantage point video....
thanks b-

this is an interesting video (with an annoying background).
  • #594
  • Jul 16, 2006 4:57pm Jul 16, 2006 4:57pm
Hey BB hows the set and forget gonig?

I love using Vp just because the software is cool

Lame huh?

Swami S
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #595
  • Jul 17, 2006 2:05am Jul 17, 2006 2:05am
After seeing that video, I had to backtest the strategy they gave to see if it actually gave good results. Surprisingly it did! Here's the trading rules for the test:

When the 10 day predicted moving average crosses above the 10 day moving average, a buy entry is set at the next day predicted low. Entry is reset everyday to the new next day predicted low until it is hit or there is a trend change. Once it is hit, the trade is open until the 10 day predicted moving average crosses below the 10 day moving average at which point the trade is closed at the close price of the cross over with profit or loss. Upon a cross below, an entry is set at the next day predicted high.

No stop loss is used in this testing so results could be expected to be better if the strategy is used with a stop loss. Also, spread is not taken into account, however since there are much fewer trades with this strategy than with a day trading strategy, the spread has much less of an effect.

2006 is by far the worst year with these test results. And by a quick glance at the EUR/USD charts for 2006, it would make sense since it has been a rather choppy year so far for the most part. I also believe that with proper stop loss management, the results would be better overall and that 2006 would actually have an overall positive gain. Anyway, I think these results look promising. I'll try to implement a stop loss factor into the testing to see how it affects the results.

Here's the link to download the testing file: http://www.savefile.com/files/5132814

Let me know what you think.

CP
Making my living one pip at a time.....
  • #596
  • Jul 17, 2006 6:24am Jul 17, 2006 6:24am
Quoting cp_trader
After seeing that video, I had to backtest the strategy they gave to see if it actually gave good results. Surprisingly it did! Here's the trading rules for the test:

When the 10 day predicted moving average crosses above the 10 day moving average, a buy entry is set at the next day predicted low. Entry is reset everyday to the new next day predicted low until it is hit or there is a trend change. Once it is hit, the trade is open until the 10 day predicted moving average crosses below the 10 day moving average at which point the trade is closed at the close price of the cross over with profit or loss. Upon a cross below, an entry is set at the next day predicted high.

No stop loss is used in this testing so results could be expected to be better if the strategy is used with a stop loss. Also, spread is not taken into account, however since there are much fewer trades with this strategy than with a day trading strategy, the spread has much less of an effect.

2006 is by far the worst year with these test results. And by a quick glance at the EUR/USD charts for 2006, it would make sense since it has been a rather choppy year so far for the most part. I also believe that with proper stop loss management, the results would be better overall and that 2006 would actually have an overall positive gain. Anyway, I think these results look promising. I'll try to implement a stop loss factor into the testing to see how it affects the results.

Here's the link to download the testing file: http://www.savefile.com/files/5132814

Let me know what you think.

CP
Hey CP,
2006 cannot be said to be the worst year at all. There was a lot of trending up to about mayish timeframe.
The problem with this strategy is one the trend is over you start losing. And markets trend approx less than 1/3 of the time....
  • #597
  • Jul 17, 2006 8:53am Jul 17, 2006 8:53am
Quoting cp_trader
After seeing that video, I had to backtest the strategy they gave to see if it actually gave good results. Surprisingly it did! Here's the trading rules for the test:

........

Let me know what you think.

CP
Thanks for that CP, I had dismissed the MA10 signal for Forex but use it extensively with Gold (which trends more). I'll add the 'buy at predicted low' enhancement and check it out.

A filter you might want to try that helps with non-trending times mentioned by Zarnie is to only trigger after the cross + a margin. 10 works for Gold.
  • #598
  • Jul 17, 2006 1:09pm Jul 17, 2006 1:09pm
Quoting cp_trader
After seeing that video, I had to backtest the strategy they gave to see if it actually gave good results. Surprisingly it did! Here's the trading rules for the test:

When the 10 day predicted moving average crosses above the 10 day moving average, a buy entry is set at the next day predicted low. Entry is reset everyday to the new next day predicted low until it is hit or there is a trend change. Once it is hit, the trade is open until the 10 day predicted moving average crosses below the 10 day moving average at which point the trade is closed at the close price of the cross over with profit or loss. Upon a cross below, an entry is set at the next day predicted high.

No stop loss is used in this testing so results could be expected to be better if the strategy is used with a stop loss. Also, spread is not taken into account, however since there are much fewer trades with this strategy than with a day trading strategy, the spread has much less of an effect.

2006 is by far the worst year with these test results. And by a quick glance at the EUR/USD charts for 2006, it would make sense since it has been a rather choppy year so far for the most part. I also believe that with proper stop loss management, the results would be better overall and that 2006 would actually have an overall positive gain. Anyway, I think these results look promising. I'll try to implement a stop loss factor into the testing to see how it affects the results.

Here's the link to download the testing file: http://www.savefile.com/files/5132814

Let me know what you think.

CP

CP,
I looked at your file and there is one flaw: you are assuming the predicted low or high was met for the predicted day...that is not always the case. i have already done this test some time ago and if you like i can send you the actual results.
  • #599
  • Jul 17, 2006 3:16pm Jul 17, 2006 3:16pm
Quoting zarni
CP,
I looked at your file and there is one flaw: you are assuming the predicted low or high was met for the predicted day...that is not always the case. i have already done this test some time ago and if you like i can send you the actual results.
You are wrong in thinking that I am assuming that the predicted low or high is reached on a predicted day. If you look at the file more closely, you will see that it doesn't begin a trade in a given buy/sell environment until the predicted high/low is reached based on the data given from CSI. So in the testing data, you always see a buy or sell for every day given along with an entry number, but there is no trade open used for testing unless the predicted high/low is reached, at which point it keeps the trade open until the trend reverses based on the predicted moving average crossover.

CP
Making my living one pip at a time.....
  • #600
  • Jul 17, 2006 3:25pm Jul 17, 2006 3:25pm
Quoting zarni
CP,
I looked at your file and there is one flaw: you are assuming the predicted low or high was met for the predicted day...that is not always the case. i have already done this test some time ago and if you like i can send you the actual results.
You are right. I usually tend to put all my code in one cell rather than like you so I didn't bother to look further than the first test.
My results were similar if i recall correctly. If you are ok with 3 pips a day I guess it could work. My other tests based on NI for instance yielded better results though. The swing trading was one of the lackluster performing ones. But it all comes down to your trading style...
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