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  • #3,221
  • Mar 14, 2014 11:21am Mar 14, 2014 11:21am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hi PayTheLimit, What strikes are you looking at for these? I'm interested to see how high you think it will move
I'm looking for S&P's to break, but its a question of how fast and how hard, for this play...time is of the essence...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #3,222
  • Mar 14, 2014 11:22am Mar 14, 2014 11:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Hey PTL, good to see an old hand here. I like selling Vix calls so please run em up for me.
well I bought a truckload, so if you need them, I'll put some away for you brother...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #3,223
  • Mar 14, 2014 2:36pm Mar 14, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting njr
What an interesting day! A lot of the mainstream media is suggesting that this selling will continue into tomorrow with people taking profit/being cautious/etc over this weekend. I've placed the following orders hoping for execution tomorrow if there is further decline: SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 10.00 SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1605 PUT‏ @GLOBEX @ 5.25 SELL JPY FOP (6J2) Mar 14'14 0.01 CALL @GLOBEX @ 0.0000025 Let's see if they get filled

Ok - I have cancelled all the above open orders. Given this nice peak in IV I am going to go a little more short term. My new position is:

SOLD ES FOP Mar21'14 1690 PUT @GLOBEX @ 1.25

It is quite deep OTM and has a current probability of 2.5% of being in the money and will expire in 1 week!
  • #3,224
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:00pm Mar 14, 2014 3:00pm
Sunday's referendum along with the G7 meeting on Monday will continue to keep the IV high and it is a great time to sell options! This coupled with some significant data points will make it an an interesting week ahead.

Have a good weekend all....
  • #3,225
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:13pm Mar 14, 2014 3:13pm
I'll toss my 2 cents in.

I sold TGT (Target) With all the bad publicity.. has room to go down to $51 support level.

Did a Vertical Debit Spread

APR Strike 57.5 Buy Put
APR Strike 55 Sell Put

So its $35 Risk Vs $215 Reward.

With 35 days -- It seems pretty good, and even if it sinks few more dollars can exit early with half of that.. Doesn't seem like they'll be retesting upside not before going down more.

Here is my 2 cents.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,226
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:08pm Mar 14, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting palabara
I'll toss my 2 cents in. I sold TGT (Target) With all the bad publicity.. has room to go down to $51 support level. Did a Vertical Debit Spread APR Strike 57.5 Buy Put APR Strike 55 Sell Put So its $35 Risk Vs $215 Reward.
So that closed at $0.63/$0.23 - a $0.40 debit, is that what you paid?

Idk, I had been watching TGT and thought it would bounce hard from a dip into the $50's, and it did, but I have had other fish to fry.

I like to go to Target and follow the hot Moms around while pretending to shop for scented candles. Seriously, though, I'd be surprised to see TGT stay south of $55 for long unless it's drug down by a general market funk. If I had to bet I'd lean on TGT settling into a range like $60 - $65 or higher...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,227
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:15pm Mar 14, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Ok - I have cancelled all the above open orders. Given this nice peak in IV I am going to go a little more short term. My new position is: SOLD ES FOP Mar21'14 1690 PUT @GLOBEX @ 1.25 It is quite deep OTM and has a current probability of 2.5% of being in the money and will expire in 1 week!
I'd rather be a call seller on the indices now but sure that's way down there & not likely to be touched.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,228
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:32pm Mar 14, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So that closed at $0.63/$0.23 - a $0.40 debit, is that what you paid? Idk, I had been watching TGT and thought it would bounce hard from a dip into the $50's, and it did, but I have had other fish to fry. I like to go to Target and follow the hot Moms around while pretending to shop for scented candles. Seriously, though, I'd be surprised to see TGT stay south of $55 for long unless it's drug down by a general market funk. If I had to bet I'd lean on TGT settling into a range like $60 - $65 or higher...
I bought it at $0.35 debit so it did increase a little bit as price is slightly decreasing for TGT.

The thing with Target is that the new news going around is that they knew about the breach of security not to that extent, but they knew there was red flags. They didn't act on it, which sets the tone to possibility of lawsuits for negligence. (Just speculating) There is room for something when you knew that there was a problem, didn't act on it and compromised millions of customers.

So I think this is going to weigh on the stock and those who would bring it up might look for opportunities for it to go down before acting giving it more room to drop as others will panic sell.. I'm not looking to sit till expiration if it doesn't look like price will hold.

The other view is how many people will still shop in target that felt violated by the events, obviously could happen anywhere but also feel like it did happen at target. So there is fundamental reasons for a price decrease or at least to weigh down for now.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,229
  • Edited 7:05pm Mar 14, 2014 6:38pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting njr
Sunday's referendum along with the G7 meeting on Monday will continue to keep the IV high and it is a great time to sell options! This coupled with some significant data points will make it an an interesting week ahead. Have a good weekend all....
d'accord, njr, it's nice to see some persistent premium.

I have been slow to get much on, though. Busy time of year in my dayjob world, will only get busier until October....

Sold CAT 3/22 $98 calls today for $0.18 against worthless 3/22 $105 calls. Have been watching ^TNX dip again, and TLT almost touched $109 today. I will have to be wait/see on that until we see some macro factor cooldown. I could see doing a TLT near term put spread for credit, though - might look at that for Monday, $106 should hold for a while.

Have a good weekend, all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,230
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:47pm Mar 14, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} The thing with Target is that the new news going around ....

could be, we'll see. I always thought TGT would shrug off the funk, which it seemed to do last couple weeks, when it bounced from $56 to $62.

Good luck with it though, pardner.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,231
  • Mar 15, 2014 1:05am Mar 15, 2014 1:05am
we prolly see more volatility in copper prices and I might build spreads on FCX here at around $31, maybe look at May $35/$25 long strangle to start

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,232
  • Mar 16, 2014 3:23pm Mar 16, 2014 3:23pm
or RIO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,233
  • Mar 17, 2014 2:19am Mar 17, 2014 2:19am
Wall Street will forget about Crimea and Ukraine unless actual large and persistent columns of smoke can be detected by satellite. CVX may rebound > $120 --- look at Apr call debit spreads, $120/$122 or higher....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-17_cvx.png Size: 151 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,234
  • Mar 17, 2014 2:47am Mar 17, 2014 2:47am
Quoting The Fool
Wall Street will forget about Crimea and Ukraine .... {image}
look for a bounce back to >$24
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-17_rsx.png Size: 155 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,235
  • Mar 17, 2014 3:01am Mar 17, 2014 3:01am
Quoting The Fool
we prolly see more volatility in copper prices and I might build spreads on FCX here at around $31, maybe look at May $35/$25 long strangle to start {image}


http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/13/news...per/index.html

" Here's how it works: Chinese companies import copper to secure loans at low interest rates by using the metal as collateral. The borrowed money can then be used to fund business operations or even invest in higher yielding assets. This method has been popular with companies unable to secure traditional bank loans. As much as 80% of China's incoming copper stocks over the last few years have been used to secure financing, according to Daily FX.

"As Chinese companies using copper as collateral default on their obligations, they're forced to liquidate their assets," said Daily FX analyst Christopher Vecchio.

That would mean large stockpiles of copper would be sold into a market that is already feeling the pinch from a slowdown in China's huge manufacturing sector. Copper, along with iron ore, have been further hurt by China's weak industrial activity, according to Capital Economics. A monthly measure of China's factory activity has continued to drop in recent months.

There's no telling how much further global copper prices have to fall. "
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-17_copper.png Size: 106 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,236
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:32am Mar 17, 2014 8:32am
Hi all,

Looks like a positive start for Monday. I’m looking forward to the end of this week with multiple expirations taking place. Summary of positions:

DKS
BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 47 PUT @ 0.1
SOLD DKS Mar21'14 48 PUT @ 0.15
SOLD DKS Mar21'14 60 CALL @ 0.175
BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 62.5 PUT @ 0.025

SHLD
SOLD SHLD Mar21'14 57.5 CALL (SHLD) @AMEX @ 0.23
SOLD SHLD Mar21'14 28 PUT (SHLD) @AMEX @ 0.12

ES Mini
SOLD ES FOP Mar21'14 1690 PUT @GLOBEX @ 1.25

ES Mini
SOLD ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 5.25‏

All positions are currently in profit with the exception of the "SOLD ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 5.25"‏. However, given expiration is about 6 weeks away I'm expecting theta decay to bring this back into profit in the coming weeks....
  • #3,237
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:35am Mar 17, 2014 8:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Hey PTL, good to see an old hand here. I like selling Vix calls so please run em up for me.
Morning TF - you fading the VXX/VIX? Should be a good day for you today
  • #3,238
  • Edited 9:38am Mar 17, 2014 9:22am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} screw the Aprils, couldn't get them done... went with the March 20 Calls for 0.25... have a good weekend...
doubled down at a dime, long two truckloads from 0.175ish...

edit...

added some more, so now long from 0.15...and I'm done...if it hits I'm going to take some vacay, if it doesn't, I'll just have to make it back somewhere else....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #3,239
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:48am Mar 17, 2014 9:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} could be, we'll see. I always thought TGT would shrug off the funk, which it seemed to do last couple weeks, when it bounced from $56 to $62. Good luck with it though, pardner.


My new theory on everything else is markets all seem irrational now, so you need to be irrational too lol then that will neutralize any left irrationality.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,240
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:39am Mar 17, 2014 10:39am
Quoting njr
{quote} Morning TF - you fading the VXX/VIX? Should be a good day for you today
no njr I am looking to put something on somewhere, might not make it happen today, have some traveling to get started on. hoping the passes will thaw out by afternoon....

I kinda thought Wall Street would deem Ukraine a side show now & get back on the scooter headed for S&P 2,000. Saber rattling from Ukraine, reserve troops mobilizing, etc - a feeble squawk drowned out by the noise of money changing hands. Nobody seems to think anything will happen, so it just might...but I ain't betting on it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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