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LJ Forex Group - PA Only Trades

  • #21
  • Edited 9:35am Mar 12, 2014 9:22am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting lovejoy80
EURGBP PA long trade
Hi LJ. Nice trades!

Don't understand how you noticed it was a real breakout and will continue after that little basing and not reverse? Only for the lower tails on the bottom of the wedge and the retest after breaking the wedge wich confirm buyers? If there wasn't lower tail and the quick retest after wedge BO would you havent take that long?



Quoting LJ
AUDUSD PA trade
"can see the PA build up for the BO as per marked"

What do you mean? What PA is telling us that is leading to a BO?


looks like a similar trade i took this night on usdchf, would have entered at supply on the left but missed, so i waited the break of that consolidation as a confirmation that price was heading lower

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:57pm Mar 12, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting Ainur
{quote} Hi LJ. Nice trades! Don't understand how you noticed it was a real breakout and will continue after that little basing and not reverse? Only for the lower tails on the bottom of the wedge and the retest after breaking the wedge wich confirm buyers? If there wasn't lower tail and the quick retest after wedge BO would you havent take that long? {quote} "can see the PA build up for the BO as per marked" What do you mean? What PA is telling us that is leading to a BO? looks like a similar trade i took this night on usdchf, would have entered...
1. EURGBP

Not sure what you are referring to when you speak about tails?

The reason I expect the breakout there is due to the HTF PA I mentioned - it all points to longs being 'in control'

2. AUDUSD

Selling strength and buying weakness after previously consuming the demand is what tells us the BO is coming there.
  • #23
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:20am Mar 13, 2014 8:20am
USDJPY FB +6.65R

The thought process behind this trade was pretty standard but the setup itself was not one for the inexperienced.

Notice how I'm thinking in terms of value versus risks involved and how I can mitigate those risks (i.e. with the SR flip just above) instead of just ignoring the trade as it was not a 'slam dunk'.

Will split this trade into a few posts.

Firstly, let's start with the background PA that lead up to looking for a long.
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  • #24
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:21am Mar 13, 2014 8:21am
The trade itself (M1, H1 charts)...
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  • #25
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:22am Mar 13, 2014 8:22am
Trade management and targets...
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  • #26
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:23am Mar 13, 2014 8:23am
Lastly, the final H1 view - the expected momentum move that occurred.

Together with MT4 trade statement to go with the 'before' charts for transparency.
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  • #27
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:59am Mar 13, 2014 8:59am
wow...you are a monster

in fact, you went long below a resistance

How did you know it wasnt going to hold anymore? The first bullish move looked very weak compared to those solid bear candles to the left.

Ok, that little DP that originated the last solid engulf was consumed, but that supply/dp was part of a bigger one, the supply who confirmed the support/resistance flip, many times the first decision point hold, but sometimes doesn't and price reverse a bit further and there it was a reisistance.


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  • #28
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:30am Mar 13, 2014 9:30am
Hi, nice trading again, and exactly the same thoughts as Ainur. How on earth did you "know" that little supply was the key supply that needs to be consumed?
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #29
  • Mar 13, 2014 10:01am Mar 13, 2014 10:01am
And the next question is: How on earth did you know that it was only "consuming" and not rejecting price lower?

By those wicks lower in the movement?
  • #30
  • Mar 13, 2014 12:04pm Mar 13, 2014 12:04pm
In answer to the recent posts:

1. Once the supply I marked was consumed price was heading back to the SR flip.

2. Price consuming that supply in it's entirety is what told me that and it's also the supply that should have held if shorts were firmly in control at that point in time (as it was the supply that had lead to the break of the previous swing low and thus a LH should have formed from there).

3. I didn't know for sure the SR flip would break but based on the information available it suggested it was more likely:

  1. First opposing supply breaks, meaning shorts no longer in firm control.
  2. Rejection is strong and from major demand.
  3. SR flip was tested once already and this wasn't the first main opposing supply.

Thus it was more likely that once the opposing supply I marked was consumed price would break the SR flip too.


4. It was never going to be rejection as the supply was fully consumed on the first approach, so the only place price could be rejected from was the SR flip - see the next point. The lower 'wicks' were not important information as they did not occur at a significant location i.e. the PA below the supply is not overly important.

Lastly, there was value in taking a trade where I did because if the SR flip did hold then there was plenty of space/room for me to decide whether to cover my position - as is normally the case, higher demand holds meaning there is room to reduce exposure looking for the HL (i.e. move SL or reduce position size). Being able to do that was a key reason in taking the trade for me.

  • #31
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:06am Mar 14, 2014 10:06am
Focussed mainly on EURGBP today due to the HTF strength and clear SD picture, missed couple opps wanted on AUDUSD but wasn't really interested in the 'risk' correlated pairs.

Three trades, should be enough clues on the charts to explain the reasons why.
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  • #32
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:07am Mar 14, 2014 10:07am
Trade 2
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  • #33
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:08am Mar 14, 2014 10:08am
Trade 3 and job done, good weekend all.
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  • #34
  • Edited 2:51pm Mar 14, 2014 12:53pm | Edited 2:51pm
Perfect trades Mark, thanks for sharing your stunning knowledge & experience...

Today I took the NU PA trade which ended by loss. I would greatly appreciate if you could make some comments on it. My question is in the M5 chart.

Thank you.

Oskar
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  • #35
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:28pm Mar 14, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Oscarossa
Perfect trades Mark, thanks for sharing your stunning knowledge & experience... Today I took the NU PA trade which ended by loss. I would greatly appreciate if you could make some comments on it. My question is in the M5 chart. Thank you. Oskar {image} {image} {image}
Annotated chart attach should answer it.
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  • #36
  • Mar 15, 2014 3:56am Mar 15, 2014 3:56am
Thanks Mark for your insights on my NU trade. I have two additional questions. The first one goes to the trigger conditions itself that have never been met - please see the H1 chart. Does it mean we should allways look for the reason why price stopped even after consuming the main HTF flip area on LTF? If this is the case, than it's obvious that the supply that led price to drop below the main flip area was not consumed yet (visible on M1).
Question two regarding your comment "...the build up price action is really weak there are no sign of momentum at all, just a sideways range". Does it mean we need to clearly see (yellow arrows) strong rejections with momentum creating HHs each time after price hits demand and creates HLs on the lower TL? Please see the EG chart (I marked the moves directly in your EG chart, you posted previously, hope you don't mind).

Thanks.

Oskar
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  • #37
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:15am Mar 17, 2014 7:15am
Mark I'm still thinking about buying your PA course but i am not sure if it has some sense. The problem is that I have time to trade intraday only from 3 - 10 pm GMT. Do you think that there will some intraday setups as it is a slower time of the day?
  • #38
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:43pm Mar 17, 2014 9:43pm
Hey Mark, I was curious how you deal with many lines being on the chart, do you have multiple instances up of the same chart or maybe color coded lines?

For example, say I mark up H4 areas I am interested, then I go mark up some 1hr areas on the same chart, and I will then mark up LTF areas/DP's and then my chart is full of lines and I get confused why I put a line where I did. Then I ask myself is it a 5min line or a 4hr line, is this is a HTF DP or a LTF SR, different questions like that and I get confused. Maybe it's something you can get used to with practice but I'm curious how you deal with this and what you would recommend.

Thanks for the help and all your trade examples and please keep showing your PA trades, they are really helpful, either here or on twitter.
  • #39
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:36am Mar 18, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Oscarossa
Thanks Mark for your insights on my NU trade. I have two additional questions. The first one goes to the trigger conditions itself that have never been met - please see the H1 chart. Does it mean we should allways look for the reason why price stopped even after consuming the main HTF flip area on LTF? If this is the case, than it's obvious that the supply that led price to drop below the main flip area was not consumed yet (visible on M1). Question two regarding your comment "...the build up price action is really weak there are no sign of momentum...
Identifying what SD needs to be consumed is part of the pre-planning process isn't it.

I mean I'd be looking at the flip and the ignored demand just above and would be thinking there has to be supply within there somewhere that caused price to break through that area - thus I'd zoom in until I can pinpoint it and thus any long trade won't be taken until that is consumed.

The build up PA on the EG is the HL's but that's only part of the story. The more important PA is the strong buying rejection on the last approach.

We can see that the NU setup didn't have this and thus given a) the untested supply just above the flip area and b) the lack of PA to suggest longs gaining control tells us that an FB is the likely scenario there.
  • #40
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:47am Mar 18, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Martin600
Mark I'm still thinking about buying your PA course but i am not sure if it has some sense. The problem is that I have time to trade intraday only from 3 - 10 pm GMT. Do you think that there will some intraday setups as it is a slower time of the day?
It's certainly not the best hours to be intraday trading.

Part of being a trader is adapting though - I'm fortunate enough to be able to trade from London open to London close, but you've got to work with what you've got - you can't change the times you are able to trade so you have to adapt your trading to fit those conditions etc.

The overall purpose of the course is for people to come away from it with a wealth of knowledge that they don't currently possess and be able to look at the markets in a (likely) different way to what they have done previously.

The course material is thus heavily focussed on concepts, thought processes as well as a few 'fixed' strategies.

Thus how a member uses that information is up to them, it's a traders own job to think about their personality and their underlying conditions and develop a methodology using the knowledge they possess that suits them.

The way I trade for example is not necessarily the only way to trade and in fact I don't use any of the fixed strategies in isolation at all in my trading.

I have some members who are purely Daily TF traders, some who trade like me, some who trade 1-2 FX pairs and others who trade just one of the fixed strategies across multiple pairs etc.
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