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  • #11,001
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:39am Mar 13, 2014 1:39am
Quoting Fx3422271
{quote} Boy, I got lucky tonight. I got into a EUR/AUD long over an hour ago. Amazing how I more than made up for 3 NZD whipsaw losers with only 2 AUD wins tonight. Definitely has kept the dream alive for me tonight. I am even in about $200 profit for the week. All of this despite 3 losing trades due to the NZD Rate Decision whipsaws today.
Congratulations on your savvy trade and your new found wealth...Spend it wisely!!
  • #11,002
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:08am Mar 13, 2014 2:08am
Quoting HannesJoub
Well done to everyone that made pips today. I am feeling a little bit discouraged at the moment, not in the method, but in general. Between trying to determine the correct direction, whipsaw, slippage and the late / early hours (10 pm last night, 2:30 am this morning) AND things not working out, I feel a bit flat... Not that I have megabucks on the line, my trade explorer shows that, but, it's the fading of the hope that I had that is also weighing down on men (I have been at this Forex thing for a couple of years now). I guess I should have a cup...
Understandable,you're not only one who gets crowded with such emotions. All of us do. What makes it so hard is even the fact that after making some pips worse if lose the next trade involves the risk ....again....and you can't escape it,in other jobs you get used to the risk due to the experience,sometimes when things go wrong you might say "My bad,next time will be different" here in FX no "sorries" will be accepted.You get chopped financially. I do believe if you try you will get through and find your niche in this market.Persistence is the key. For example j.k. Rowling who published Harry Potter her first book was denied 12 times.....the 13 hit the target,and rest is history...

Yeah,will be up an hour before the retail sales for sure!
  • #11,003
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:20am Mar 13, 2014 2:20am
Quoting NikolasII
{quote} Understandable,you're not only one who gets crowded with such emotions. All of us do. What makes it so hard is even the fact that after making some pips worse if lose the next trade involves the risk ....again....and you can't escape it,in other jobs you get used to the risk due to the experience,sometimes when things go wrong you might say "My bad,next time will be different" here in FX no "sorries" will be accepted.You get chopped financially. I do believe if you try you will get through and find your niche in this market.Persistence is...
Cheers NikolasII, thanks for the kind words.

I will fight them on the beaches, I will fight them on land, I will fight in the air, but I will not submit...Sound familiar? Not verbatim of course, but you get the idea...

Even Tony mentioned that it took him many years to really take off. I must just be careful not jump around iro methods, brokers etc to try and compensate for what is happening at the moment...

H
  • #11,004
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:51am Mar 13, 2014 3:51am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hannes - Maybe you should change your mindset - you can't fight the market just go with the flow. JMHO.
Thanks for the reply Stewrigh, but I think that you misinterpreted me a bit there....I was alluding to Winston Churchill who made those statements about fighting etc when he was talking about the war (WWII). I was trying to intimate that I will not give up, but carry on until I win...

But on the other hand perhaps there was a bit of a Freudian slip that came out with all the "fighting". But that is to deep for me at the moment

Cheers

H
  • #11,005
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:35am Mar 13, 2014 4:35am
Quoting stewrigh
Yeah I got the Churchill link but I do think a lot of ppl round here(FF) treat forex as some sort of 'shoot em up' battle. As Dr Joe would say just go with the flow lol.

There is definitely an air of "it's us or them" and I do not think that you can blame the retail trader for feeling like that, given what brokers, central banks, large banks etc have done in the past (Price gaps, slippage, whipsaws, cancellation of successful traders accounts, proven colluding between the big boys et al.). You have to ask, why did Forex become available to retail? Was it solely for the purpose of wealth transfer perhaps? Looks that way if you look at the success rate of the average retail trader. Education, training and resources & capitalisation all play a role in the success of the retail trader, but the big players know / knew that, so they were definitely not looking out for the small bloke when they opened up the Pandora's box which is Retail Forex....

Going with the flow sounds a lot like the "trend is your friend" mantra, but what we are trying to achieve with this method (I think) is to take advantage of the following:

1) Knowing the time to trade
2) Knowing the instrument to trade
3) Knowing the fact that there should be sharp movement (Many times the big boys use the "news" as cover to get into better positions, start / end trends etc)
4) Knowing how long, more or less, give or take to stay in the trade.

So everything is pretty well defined

All we can control with this method is our potential loss (ignoring slippage for ease of explanation) and in what direction to trade.

And therein lies the rub, whilst we look at our R:R through our SL & TP, often times as we see, slippage comes to the party to ruin any carefully laid plans, but at least not every time. So that part is also actually out of our control = frustration. The second part, the direction to choose is also not as clear cut as many believe, because no one really knows which direction price will move in at the time of news, so you have a 50:50 chance there to, get it wrong and BAM, more frustration (not withstanding whipsaw).

And that is where I find myself today.Yesterday, NZD, got the direction right, whipsaw takes me out (also, does not happen every time), today - AUD, got direction right, slippage makes a mess of my R:R and in the end I get stopped out with a BE trade, frustration boils over seeing the pips travel at pace away from me = revenge trade taken and lose a cool 27% of my account, i.e. all the gains made during the week. Now, the revenge trade is not the market or big boys fault, all my own, but still it = more frustration...I find myself thinking, what is next, getting the direction wrong?

And I think that is the beauty of Tony's system. Go long only, and only on those news items that *should* provide enough movement to make a profit. You won't be right every time, but when you are right it should make up for the times you are wrong.

Certainly, I am not trading entirely according to Tony's method. Trading HAS to work for me, to supplement income instead of being an expense and that is why, I think, I struggle to sit on my hands and trade like Tony does (i.e. purely his method, although by his own admission, he breaks his own rules sometimes and that also makes it difficult to follow) and also why it affects me so when things seem to be going awry...

Damn, you see man, I told you this was too deep for me at the moment! Now I need a nap after unpacking the dark corners of my mind.



H
  • #11,006
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:51am Mar 13, 2014 6:51am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} You are right trend is your friend but that fits with Tony's method, if I understand it correctly. Look at the chart below and tell me which side of the market the big boys have been on for the last 3 years. Adding to your position on the pullbacks during that time could/would have made a lot of money. {image}
that cad/chf....looks like a bottomless pit
  • #11,007
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:27am Mar 13, 2014 7:27am
Okay class, are we going to try the USD news in 5 mins?

I am there, but anticipating whipsaw because of the multiple news items. Let's fasten our seat belts for this one.

Sorry Stewrigh, I couldn't pin down my hands to sit on them

See all you on the flipside.

H
  • #11,008
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:34am Mar 13, 2014 7:34am
Quoting HannesJoub
Okay class, are we going to try the USD news in 5 mins? I am there, but anticipating whipsaw because of the multiple news items. Let's fasten our seat belts for this one. Sorry Stewrigh, I couldn't pin down my hands to sit on them See all you on the flipside. H
an earth shattering 15 pip move, with plenty of whipsaw.. lol
switched to 1M timeframe to see the action...
  • #11,009
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:39am Mar 13, 2014 7:39am
I missed the whip on EURUSD, which pair are you referring to?
  • #11,010
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:46am Mar 13, 2014 7:46am
Stopped out @ -4.5 pips...EURUSD short

What I did not see was whip & slip (aka mayonnaise from now on...) but that could be because there was no volatility and / or enough liquidity...who knows.

But I am happy with the result, the system / method is working as designed.

Now I wait for tomorrow's USD PPI & Consumer sentiment.

H
  • #11,011
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:46am Mar 13, 2014 7:46am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} You are right trend is your friend but that fits with Tony's method, if I understand it correctly. Look at the chart below and tell me which side of the market the big boys have been on for the last 3 years. Adding to your position on the pullbacks during that time could/would have made a lot of money. {image}
The market is a visual representation of fundamentals and news events. Although your strategy of "buying or selling" during "pullbacks" within a much deeper long term trend may be somewhat successful for you, this has NOTHING to do with Tony's system or this thread.

There are plenty of threads that focus on the "trend is your friend" and/or other mainstream newbie retail trader ideologies but this thread is not one of them.

This thread has to do with being in and out of the market quickly and efficiently at the most optimal times. We can also use much more leverage than the typical "trend following" trader and with higher R/R ratios.

The reason why HannesJoub is frustrated is because firstly, he traded NZD yesterday and got whipsawed out. There was probably a reason why Tony didn't trade that one. Next, he "revenge traded" which is a huge mistake and over time you will have the discipline to not make this mistake. Lastly, he "needs" to become a profitable trader for income and from my experience the market will only punish this kind of desperation.
  • #11,012
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:52am Mar 13, 2014 7:52am
Quoting HannesJoub
Stopped out @ -4.5 pips...EURUSD short What I did not see was whip & slip (aka mayonnaise from now on...) but that could be because there was no volatility and / or enough liquidity...who knows. But I am happy with the result, the system / method is working as designed. Now I wait for tomorrow's USD PPI & Consumer sentiment. H
You are not doing enough research on whether or not the events you trade are worth your time. Just my two cents.
  • #11,013
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:54am Mar 13, 2014 7:54am


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ehm.jpg Size: 54 KB
Timing
  • #11,014
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:55am Mar 13, 2014 7:55am
Quoting Fx3422271
{quote} from my experience the market will only punish this kind of desperation.
Yup....
  • #11,015
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:00am Mar 13, 2014 8:00am
Quoting dendy
{image}
Your GU trade looks like a Hannes (revenge) trade fella...don't be like Hannes
  • #11,016
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:11am Mar 13, 2014 8:11am
Quoting dendy
{image}
cut GU +4.5 UJ -0.1
Timing
  • #11,017
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:12am Mar 13, 2014 8:12am
Quoting HannesJoub
{quote} Your GU trade looks like a Hannes (revenge) trade fella...don't be like Hannes
Timing
  • #11,018
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:15am Mar 13, 2014 8:15am
Quoting HannesJoub
I missed the whip on EURUSD, which pair are you referring to?
the usd pairs i checked were whipsawing.. usd/jpy, aud/usd
H, best to trade only the news that can move at least 50-80 pips.

even for straddle trades, they work consistently good only with high impact events.
print out tony112 image on post 1 and put that next to your monitor.

alot of things can go wrong straddle trading with low impact news.
experience the madness by firing up a demo account and trade the non-high impact news to convince yourself
  • #11,019
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:24am Mar 13, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Tuffy
{quote} print out tony112 image on post 1 and put that next to your monitor.
I've done that, it doesn't work

I keep thinking about those news items that are "low impact" on the "high impact" scale (does that even make sense?) And I keep wondering, what if this non sanctioned red folder news event actually makes a move, I would not want to miss out on it.

I guess I just don't have the testicular fortitude to sit those out yet...

I. Must. Sit. On. Hands.

H
  • #11,020
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:49am Mar 13, 2014 8:49am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} NP it's your money lol.
Yes Mom...
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