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  • #3,201
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:17pm Mar 12, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-e...155229692.html KKD might blow through one of those short legs. a $22C/$17P Mar strangle is $0.65 net now.... I will prolly be in this, leaning a touch long.... ...strangled at $0.22/$0.33 ($17p/$22c) ... $0.55 net debit
Hey TF - you're right! KKD looks like it's moving higher in AH trading. I actually decided to not enter the position which is probably a good thing looking at where this is moving at the moment......
  • #3,202
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:21pm Mar 12, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} WOOHOO KKD >$22 AH, I will be able to buy more donuts!
Congratulations TF. Well done....you can load up on some doughnuts for dessert tonight in honor of your trade
  • #3,203
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:40pm Mar 12, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Congratulations TF. Well done....you can load up on some doughnuts for dessert tonight in honor of your trade
well, we'll see, they took KKD to the $22 but it didn't stay long, currently @ $21.57 AH....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,204
  • Mar 13, 2014 12:37am Mar 13, 2014 12:37am
Morgen, njr. We've not had a new S&P high in, what - 3 days? Time to throw a dart at the tech darlings and sell some puts.

SCTY heading for $90.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-12_scty.png Size: 131 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,205
  • Mar 13, 2014 12:44am Mar 13, 2014 12:44am
TRIP headed > $115
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,206
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:07am Mar 13, 2014 1:07am
Quoting The Fool
Morgen, njr. We've not had a new S&P high in, what - 3 days? {image}
Oh......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-12_cny.png Size: 22 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,207
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:26am Mar 13, 2014 1:26am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Oh...... {image}
Evening TF,

Yeah, this will be interesting for the market today. Some of the 'experts' saying that China will have a hard landing now. Currently the futures are still pointing to a positive open but let's see how this pans out closer to the US open. I still have my 1685 PUT on the ES mini which is currently in profit but that could all change if there is a pullback today. I'm going to leave this on for the moment as it is 2 sigma from current price at the moment and I'm hoping to leave it on and probably close it if the market gets to the 1900 level.

Regarding SCTY, TRIP, and HLF (in your previous post) I might look at a short put vertical on each. There is currently good IV on HLF given the announcement yesterday and there may be an opportunity to capitalize on the vol collapse assuming things normalize after the dust settles on the investigation. I'll have a closer look today...
  • #3,208
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:35am Mar 13, 2014 1:35am
Quoting njr
{quote} Evening TF, Yeah, this will be interesting for the market today....
Yup I don't see US markets putting on anything better than a flat day in the face of continuing bad Chinese data, we'll see what the US retail sales and unemployment data are b4 the bell Thur, if those disappoint we could see a slide.

HLF will be capped for a while but if it slides much more one might look at long term calls as it will likely bounce if/when govt scrutiny finds nothing amiss.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,209
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:51am Mar 13, 2014 7:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yup I don't see US markets putting on anything better than a flat day in the face of continuing bad Chinese data, we'll see what the US retail sales and unemployment data are b4 the bell Thur, if those disappoint we could see a slide. HLF will be capped for a while but if it slides much more one might look at long term calls as it will likely bounce if/when govt scrutiny finds nothing amiss.
Hey TF - As usual I think you're on the money regarding the US data points will show. It looks like good numbers and futures have just ticked up higher on the news. Hopefully this positive sentiment will continue throughout today's session and the market will shrug off the China data [according to some people it's already been factored into the market]......

Good point about HLF, it could slide a little more given the news is still relatively recent and as you say it's probably a good buy if the government don't find anything. Of course the flip side is that they do classify is as some sort of pyramid scheme and this causes further issues for the company. I will watch the price today and if it looks like it is stabilizing then I may consider a short term trade [IC or a jade lizard] for expiry tomorrow....
  • #3,210
  • Mar 13, 2014 11:38am Mar 13, 2014 11:38am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, we'll see, they took KKD to the $22 but it didn't stay long, currently @ $21.57 AH....
KKD looking like another TOTAL LOSS on an ER strangle. It went to my call strike AH and I had a sell order up there but didn't get filled. Shoulda tried harder to get out. Now KKD fallen back to the dead middle of my spread....

I'm 0-3 on my last 3 of these so it's looking like a dead strategy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,211
  • Mar 13, 2014 12:14pm Mar 13, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} KKD looking like another TOTAL LOSS on an ER strangle. It went to my call strike AH and I had a sell order up there but didn't get filled. Shoulda tried harder to get out. Now KKD fallen back to the dead middle of my spread.... I'm 0-3 on my last 3 of these so it's looking like a dead strategy.
Hey TF,

Sorry to hear the KKD trade isn't going well. It seems that China and the Crimea situation is making the market quite nervous and most things are falling at the moment. Consequently, I'm staying out of the SCTY and TRIP trades.

I've got a number of existing positions at the moment all in profit with the exception of the ES mini and consequently I won't be putting on any other positions until I see where this market moves. I'll leave my 1685 PUT SELL ES mini on for the moment as there is still only a 10% chance of being ITM.
  • #3,212
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:14pm Mar 13, 2014 3:14pm
What an interesting day! A lot of the mainstream media is suggesting that this selling will continue into tomorrow with people taking profit/being cautious/etc over this weekend. I've placed the following orders hoping for execution tomorrow if there is further decline:

SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 10.00
SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1605 PUT‏ @GLOBEX @ 5.25
SELL JPY FOP (6J2) Mar 14'14 0.01 CALL @GLOBEX @ 0.0000025

Let's see if they get filled
  • #3,213
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:18pm Mar 13, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, Sorry to hear the KKD trade isn't going well. It seems that China and the Crimea situation is making the market quite nervous and most things are falling at the moment. Consequently, I'm staying out of the SCTY and TRIP trades. I've got a number of existing positions at the moment all in profit with the exception of the ES mini and consequently I won't be putting on any other positions until I see where this market moves. I'll leave my 1685 PUT SELL ES mini on for the moment as there is still only a 10% chance of being ITM.

Hey Bud, yes, KKD a loss it seems but saylavee. I have put legs of various spreads that are looking good, too. I sold Apr HAL $55 puts @ $1.80, a $0.75 net, and have EBAY, ORCL long puts also in the green after today. Have been selling CAT otm calls against Apr $105 calls and making small change. I'd welcome a VIX spike to sell, but we'll see where things are heading.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,214
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:45pm Mar 13, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting njr
SELL JPY FOP (6J2) Mar 14'14 0.01 CALL @GLOBEX @ 0.0000025 Let's see if they get filled
How many of the 6J2 are you selling?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,215
  • Mar 14, 2014 1:05am Mar 14, 2014 1:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} How many of the 6J2 are you selling?
Evening TF - The order is for 40 contracts. I doubt that these will get filled though. I woke up this morning and saw the the Asia session and clearly the equities market has been hit but it seems the USDJPY is holding strong around the 101.6X level. With the last day of trading today I would guess it would need to fall to around the 101 ish level before my 6J was filled. It's a long shot but it seems people are quite nervous about the outcome of the vote on Sunday....
  • #3,216
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:33am Mar 14, 2014 8:33am
looking to buy OTM H and J VIX calls....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #3,217
  • Mar 14, 2014 9:15am Mar 14, 2014 9:15am
Quoting PayTheLimit
looking to buy OTM H and J VIX calls....
screw the Aprils, couldn't get them done...

went with the March 20 Calls for 0.25...

have a good weekend...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #3,218
  • Mar 14, 2014 9:32am Mar 14, 2014 9:32am
Quoting njr
What an interesting day! A lot of the mainstream media is suggesting that this selling will continue into tomorrow with people taking profit/being cautious/etc over this weekend. I've placed the following orders hoping for execution tomorrow if there is further decline: SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 10.00 SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1605 PUT‏ @GLOBEX @ 5.25 SELL JPY FOP (6J2) Mar 14'14 0.01 CALL @GLOBEX @ 0.0000025 Let's see if they get filled
None of the positions filled. A shame about the 6J order at this will certainly expire OTM today and it would have been a nice end to the week. At the moment the market looks like it is taking a pause and probably waiting to see how the events on Sunday pan out. Monday open will an interesting day!! I'm going to leave on my SELL 1605 PUT and my SELL 1685 PUT orders for the moment and if the market falls further on Monday these will hopefully be filled then...
  • #3,219
  • Mar 14, 2014 9:36am Mar 14, 2014 9:36am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} screw the Aprils, couldn't get them done... went with the March 20 Calls for 0.25... have a good weekend...
Hi PayTheLimit,

What strikes are you looking at for these? I'm interested to see how high you think it will move
  • #3,220
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:24am Mar 14, 2014 10:24am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} screw the Aprils, couldn't get them done... went with the March 20 Calls for 0.25... have a good weekend...
Hey PTL, good to see an old hand here. I like selling Vix calls so please run em up for me.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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