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  • #3,181
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:21pm Mar 9, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting Constantins
Congratulations, very good trade(IC on COST). I tried the day before the earnings to get in, but I was not filled.
Thanks Constantins - A good trade but I evidently I couldn't type whilst I was on my tablet. Thanks for pointing out my error earlier in the week
  • #3,182
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:32pm Mar 9, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting njr
{quote}CAT and HAL look pretty good though and best of luck. Now that earnings is pretty much done, I'm going to see where some of the indexes and commodities might move in the next few weeks and shift my focus back to them. After a few days in London I need to top up my bank balance again
Thanks, njr. I have been spread very thin and missed most of the trades I knew I wanted to be in over the last month. Missed the dip in ^TNX (see below) via TLT puts and several others. We'll see in the coming week if maybe continuing geopolitcal drama can slow down the bull market, but I don't expect it will unless there is actual bloodshed involved, witness Friday closed on a new S&P high...

I will have a new IB account in the coming weeks and will likely concentrate there on spread treading the most liquid futures index and commod options, may try naked selling ala Karen SuperTrader style.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,183
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:42pm Mar 9, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Thanks, njr. I have been spread very thin and missed most of the trades I knew I wanted to be in over the last month. Missed the dip in ^TNX (see below) via TLT puts and several others. We'll see in the coming week if maybe continuing geopolitcal drama can slow down the bull market, but I don't expect it will unless there is actual bloodshed involved, witness Friday closed on a new S&P high... I will have a new IB account in the coming weeks and will likely concentrate there on spread treading the most liquid futures index and coomod options,...
Hey TF - Good to hear you are going to try the Karen Supertrader approach. I'm also keen on this approach. I think your right about the market moving higher unless there is some major crisis happening but at the moment I can't see anything happening unless there is war or some major China issue / bad loan default, etc.... I recall from her recent interview that given the market 'melt-up' she tends to keep selling calls to about 2 weeks out rather than her previous 56 DTE. I think she was saying that this is where her challenges lay given how fast the market has been moving higher and the 2 week DTE was easier to manage....

I'm looking forward to market open!
  • #3,184
  • Mar 9, 2014 3:00pm Mar 9, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF - Good to hear you are going to try the Karen Supertrader approach. .... I recall from her recent interview that given the market 'melt-up' she tends to keep selling calls to about 2 weeks out rather than her previous 56 DTE. I think she was saying that this is where her challenges lay given how fast the market has been moving higher and the 2 week DTE was easier to manage....
yes, that makes sense. If you are selling calls you are naturally protected against BS events, but given the peakiness of the indices it's just a challenge to find your spots, and so must go off prior % and sigma moves.

We may find a top this year, though - taper will likely continue on pace and if US econ data continues to show any kind of strength there will be buzz about Fed tightening further via the interest rate. Throw China slowdown in the mix...it could happen.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,185
  • Mar 9, 2014 3:07pm Mar 9, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} We may find a top this year, though - taper will likely continue on pace and if US econ data continues to show any kind of strength there will be buzz about Fed tightening further via the interest rate. Throw China slowdown in the mix...it could happen.
...throw in a resurrection of the Cold War, sure, selling calls will work...

http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/03/...nsions-to.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,186
  • Mar 10, 2014 12:43pm Mar 10, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...throw in a resurrection of the Cold War, sure, selling calls will work... http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/03/...nsions-to.html
Hey TF,

That's a good article and perhaps this is the time to look at selling CALLs now. The trouble I am having at the moment (like most other option sellers) is that IV is quite low and it is difficult to obtain a decent premium for the amount of margin required. For example, ES mini for April 25 (46 DTE) for at 1 sigma move (1975) is only 1.85 and a 2 sigma move (2075) has not current bid price. The corresponding margin requirements are considerable which would tip me over my 50% max margin that I like to adhere to.....Frustrating!!

On the PUT side, I was thinking of selling around the 1700 level but I'm unsure if today's pull back it related to china et al or if this is the start of the top out as indicated in your article and many others I keep reading.

I'm sitting on my hands today

On the earnings front, URBN and DKS are reporting....I might look at these closer to the bell today to try to maximize IV
  • #3,187
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:47pm Mar 10, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting njr
{quote} . I'm sitting on my hands today On the earnings front, URBN and DKS are reporting....I might look at these closer to the bell today to try to maximize IV
I'll look at those, thanks - I might like a call credit spread on HLF, maybe Apr $76/$80, but I will likely wait to see if it can get up on $70 this week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,188
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:04pm Mar 10, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, That's a good article and perhaps this is the time to look at selling CALLs now. The trouble I am having at the moment (like most other option sellers) is that IV is quite low and it is difficult to obtain a decent premium for the amount of margin required. For example, ES mini for April 25 (46 DTE) for at 1 sigma move (1975) is only 1.85 and a 2 sigma move (2075) has not current bid price. The corresponding margin requirements are considerable which would tip me over my 50% max margin that I like to adhere to.....Frustrating!! On...
New Position: IC on DKS

BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 47 PUT @ 0.1
SOLD DKS Mar21'14 48 PUT @ 0.15
SOLD DKS Mar21'14 60 CALL @ 0.175
BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 62.5 PUT @ 0.025
  • #3,189
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:11pm Mar 10, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'll look at those, thanks - I might like a call credit spread on HLF, maybe Apr $76/$80, but I will likely wait to see if it can get up on $70 this week....
Hey TF - you're probably already aware of this but HLF up due to a rebuttal of the accusation that it is a pyramid scheme....$70 (6% increase or about .75 sigma) this week looks probable.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12523...o&cm_ven=YAHOO
  • #3,190
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:10pm Mar 10, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF - you're probably already aware of this but HLF up due to a rebuttal of the accusation that it is a pyramid scheme....$70 (6% increase or about .75 sigma) this week looks probable. http://www.thestreet.com/story/12523...o&cm_ven=YAHOO
Yep I think so too but also I think there will be a limit upside, as well. So doing an Apr $80/($80+n) CALL credit spread if he makes $70 will be something I'll watch for.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,191
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:04am Mar 11, 2014 1:04am
KK donuts melt in your mouth, I can get like 15 dozen boxes in the basket of my motorized scooter.

ER's out 3/12. KKD long Mar strangle $16p/$22c cost you $0.45 net...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,192
  • Mar 11, 2014 10:10am Mar 11, 2014 10:10am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, That's a good article and perhaps this is the time to look at selling CALLs now. The trouble I am having at the moment (like most other option sellers) is that IV is quite low and it is difficult to obtain a decent premium for the amount of margin required. For example, ES mini for April 25 (46 DTE) for at 1 sigma move (1975) is only 1.85 and a 2 sigma move (2075) has not current bid price. The corresponding margin requirements are considerable which would tip me over my 50% max margin that I like to adhere to.....Frustrating!! On...
Looks like this market is keen on hitting the 1900 level and I can't see anything (in the very short term) that will stop it from reaching there. I'll look at the PUTs on some of the indexes.....
  • #3,193
  • Mar 11, 2014 11:17am Mar 11, 2014 11:17am
Quoting njr
{quote} Looks like this market is keen on hitting the 1900 level and I can't see anything (in the very short term) that will stop it from reaching there. I'll look at the PUTs on some of the indexes.....
New Order Placed:

SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 5.25‏

Hopefully this will fill with the pullback today
  • #3,194
  • Mar 11, 2014 11:19am Mar 11, 2014 11:19am
Quoting njr
{quote} Looks like this market is keen on hitting the 1900 level and I can't see anything (in the very short term) that will stop it from reaching there. I'll look at the PUTs on some of the indexes.....
Yup, best a bear can hope for is a flat day here and there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,195
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:28pm Mar 11, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting njr
{quote} New Order Placed: SELL ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 5.25‏ Hopefully this will fill with the pullback today
Order Filled. Position is:

SOLD ES FOP Apr 30'14 1685 PUT @GLOBEX @ 5.25‏
  • #3,196
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:31pm Mar 11, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting njr
{quote} New Position: IC on DKS BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 47 PUT @ 0.1 SOLD DKS Mar21'14 48 PUT @ 0.15 SOLD DKS Mar21'14 60 CALL @ 0.175 BOUGHT DKS Mar21'14 62.5 PUT @ 0.025
Current Position on DSK looks good. IV has collapsed post earnings...
  • #3,197
  • Mar 12, 2014 10:43am Mar 12, 2014 10:43am
Quoting The Fool
KK donuts melt in your mouth, I can get like 15 dozen boxes in the basket of my motorized scooter. ER's out 3/12. KKD long Mar strangle $16p/$22c cost you $0.45 net... {image}
Hey TF,

I'm thinking of an IC on KKD. I'm going to see how high this can move today and if I can get a better price on the CALL leg of the IC. I'm looking at:

Buy PUT @ 15
Sell PUT @ 16
Sell CALL @ 23
Buy CALL @24

The expected move is about 10% or about $1.9 based on current market price....
  • #3,198
  • Mar 12, 2014 1:02pm Mar 12, 2014 1:02pm
Another buying opportunity?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,199
  • Edited 2:05pm Mar 12, 2014 1:18pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, I'm thinking of an IC on KKD. I'm going to see how high this can move today and if I can get a better price on the CALL leg of the IC. I'm looking at: Buy PUT @ 15 Sell PUT @ 16 Sell CALL @ 23 Buy CALL @24 The expected move is about 10% or about $1.9 based on current market price....

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-e...155229692.html

KKD might blow through one of those short legs. a $22C/$17P Mar strangle is $0.65 net now....

I will prolly be in this, leaning a touch long....

...strangled at $0.22/$0.33 ($17p/$22c) ... $0.55 net debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,200
  • Edited 3:30pm Mar 12, 2014 3:15pm | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-e...155229692.html KKD might blow through one of those short legs. a $22C/$17P Mar strangle is $0.65 net now.... I will prolly be in this, leaning a touch long.... ...strangled at $0.22/$0.33 ($17p/$22c) ... $0.55 net debit
WOOHOO KKD >$22 AH, I will be able to buy more donuts!


....pulling back, conf call about to start, donuts.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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