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Central Banks Watch

  • #241
  • Jul 12, 2006 8:52pm Jul 12, 2006 8:52pm
Thanks CraigATK

That bit of "insider information" from Japan upgrades the BOJ's decision to Quite Interesting, having moved up a pip or two from Interesting. :-)

How to trade it? V3 theory leads me to say expect NFP Volatility and Velocity, but not the Volume associated with NFP announcements. If so, then beware the dreaded "price gap" immediately following the announcement, resignation or not.

Plan B: the more prudent among us will wait for the dust to settle and trade the subsequent trend.

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #242
  • Jul 12, 2006 9:20pm Jul 12, 2006 9:20pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Plan B: the more prudent among us will wait for the dust to settle and trade the subsequent trend.
Thas' right. That's called switching from 5 minute charts to 13.
Mr. Trend
  • #243
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:29pm Jul 13, 2006 2:29pm
Just wondering what your guys strategy will be for the BOJ monetary policy news will be?

I trade on Forex.com. When the Unemployment news came out last week in the U.S., I saw the USD/JPY drop like crazy, so I was trying to short it, but my deal kept getting rejected cuz the price was moving too fast. So I never got in.

From what I understand about the BOJ monetary policy news is that it's about 80% likelihood of them raising .25% (first time in 6 years). Not sure if that's already factored into the current rates, I assume it is since it's common knowledge for the past week or so, so the "news" that will affect whether the currency pair (USD/JPY) goes up or down will be their future out look to raise rates or not. So just wondering how you guys trade and will trade this news tonight?
  • #244
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:49pm Jul 13, 2006 2:49pm
In my personnel opinion, the only solid deal will be longing USD-JPY if we have no hike !!!!

If the interest rate hike is 0.25%, I do not really know what will be the market's reaction. Maybe the hike is already priced on the quotation, maybe not ......
  • #245
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:26pm Jul 13, 2006 3:26pm
I personally am looking to trade this in the short term with my NFP strategy, because I think that interest rate announcements pretty much react the same way as NFP does, at least in the very short term.

My long term system is right on the edge of signalling me to go long the yen. My Fib levels are also right on that edge. So I'd say that I'm definitely bullish the yen in the long term.

If the yen goes bearish, I stay out in the long term.

The short term doesn't matter...
Mr. Trend
  • #246
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:31pm Jul 13, 2006 3:31pm
I would straddle the news. Whether BOJ increases rates or not, there is going to be a swing one way or the other, so a straddle for me.
  • #247
  • Edited 4:33pm Jul 13, 2006 4:19pm | Edited 4:33pm
Hello guys

if the "BOJ Interest Rate Statement" came as expect 0.25% so JPN 'll be strong ?

Anyidea about "BOJ Interest Rate Statement"

Avg. Move: ??? Pips
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #248
  • Jul 13, 2006 4:31pm Jul 13, 2006 4:31pm
I hate to sound rude, but it seems like there's about two or three threads today on the BOJ rate announcement, and everyone I see on these threads except for a couple of folks are in what I call, the "gambler's mindset".

Listen folks -- you have NO idea where price is going to go. So why do you care?

To succeed you have to give up the notion of trying to predict the market. And until you realize that, you will consistently be a loser.

I've been there, done that.

All I see is, "So where do you think it's going to go?" or, "So how many pips is it going to go?"

Ya know what that means when you ask that? It means that you're not going to go into the trade with a plan. Instead, you're relying on speculation of what people on a forum think is going to happen. And they have no idea neither.

It's all cool to talk about rate hikes in general conversation, but I can guarantee that the things people are saying today will have an impact on people's trading decisions. People come into forums and see a bunch of people saying, "Oh the yen is DEFINITELY bullish!", and subconsciously, whether they know it or not, that will push them in that direction when the rate is announced.

And then what happens if it jumps a measly 20 pips, but then whipsaws back for 35, takes out your stop, then reverses back down for 100? What do you do? Have you moved your initial stoploss to breakeven if you're trading this on short term intervals?

Do you have a plan?

Think about that folks. (And no, you don't have a plan if you have to ask people where it's going to go and how many pips it's going to go...and if that's the case, you should not be trading.)

Ok... I'm done ranting.
Mr. Trend
  • #249
  • Jul 13, 2006 4:40pm Jul 13, 2006 4:40pm
The Straddle strategy is not for me...... whipsaws dish you not 1 but 2 losing trades. Gee, could that happen? It is unlikely, but it SUCKS so bad that you will never straddle again.

I expect a market response, but with interest rate adjustments.... why try to predict. Just observe the move and jump onboard early with a reasonable stop loss, then get out of the movement when a retracement starts. The only 100+ pip trades i have under my belt have been with that technique.

But remember, i am a noob and have NO business giving advice to anyone. So, take my comments with a grain of salt. Good luck. I will definitely be there at news time.
  • #250
  • Jul 13, 2006 4:56pm Jul 13, 2006 4:56pm
I Respect your words, However as i think in Strong News There's No Plans You can do !
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #251
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:00pm Jul 13, 2006 5:00pm
Quoting squat1962
The Straddle strategy is not for me...... whipsaws dish you not 1 but 2 losing trades. Gee, could that happen? It is unlikely, but it SUCKS so bad that you will never straddle again.

I expect a market response, but with interest rate adjustments.... why try to predict. Just observe the move and jump onboard early with a reasonable stop loss, then get out of the movement when a retracement starts. The only 100+ pip trades i have under my belt have been with that technique.

But remember, i am a noob and have NO business giving advice to anyone. So, take my comments with a grain of salt. Good luck. I will definitely be there at news time.
whipsaws are possible...however how would you approach it any differently if you traded it manually. in my opinion straddles are just fine if used right. manual trading cannot match the precision of setting a straddle.
  • #252
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:25pm Jul 13, 2006 5:25pm
Why do we need to have multiple threads about the same topic? Annoying. Why dont people read before they write?
  • #253
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:37pm Jul 13, 2006 5:37pm
Quoting forexplayer
I would straddle the news. Whether BOJ increases rates or not, there is going to be a swing one way or the other, so a straddle for me.
Excuse me for the ignorance, but what does "straddle" the news mean?
  • #254
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:41pm Jul 13, 2006 5:41pm
Quoting Yardie
Why do we need to have multiple threads about the same topic? Annoying. Why dont people read before they write?
Because we like to fill up the message board with new posts, so it can be the most popular forex forum

And because someone replying to this post might not have read the other posts either, so could provide some insight that was not previously mentioned in a different post
  • #255
  • Jul 13, 2006 7:55pm Jul 13, 2006 7:55pm
Quoting abcxyzzz
Excuse me for the ignorance, but what does "straddle" the news mean?
before the news comes out put a limit buy order above the current price and a limit sell under the current price. When the news gets out and there's a breakout, then cancel the order that didn't get triggered. Then enjoy.
  • #256
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:00pm Jul 13, 2006 8:00pm
When you watch a game of footbal/soccer do you have a plan? You try to guess who's winning/loosing how bad...
You can discuss. If somebody asks about BOJ it doesn't mean that they don't have a plan, or they will do what other people say. Maybe they just wanna know what other people say/think. It's a big event and people talk, discuss. So, relax!
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #257
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:08pm Jul 13, 2006 8:08pm
What flies over my head is why is the yen lossing ground to all majors ESPECIALLY when the market is speculating on a 0.25% hike ??

When theres FOMC meetings the dollar gains or consolidates before release, but yen has been lossing ground since tuesday.......
  • #258
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:22pm Jul 13, 2006 8:22pm
Looking to trade the aftermath,personally. If there's a good oppurtunity. Closed an open position this morning just in case.

....AND just as I type this, I'm very happy I did!
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #259
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:32pm Jul 13, 2006 8:32pm
Quoting iceburg501
What flies over my head is why is the yen lossing ground to all majors ESPECIALLY when the market is speculating on a 0.25% hike ??

When theres FOMC meetings the dollar gains or consolidates before release, but yen has been lossing ground since tuesday.......
Maybe it's the opposite. Orrr not the opposite. If you get my drift?

The "Dollar" is still gaining before the anouncement!
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #260
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:45pm Jul 13, 2006 8:45pm
Quoting iceburg501
What flies over my head is why is the yen lossing ground to all majors ESPECIALLY when the market is speculating on a 0.25% hike ??

When theres FOMC meetings the dollar gains or consolidates before release, but yen has been lossing ground since tuesday.......
Have you heard the remarks by Tanigaki and the other guy? The BOJ can make their own decision but the Gov't officials are publicly saying that they need to keep the ZIRP going. I also heard that the Gov't can call for a delay to the announcement to have more time to "reconsider" the course of action (probably highly unlikely).
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