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Planetary Cycles Trading (EUR/USD)

  • #6,121
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:00am Mar 4, 2014 1:00am
Quoting jnevins
{quote} No one has ever said that the movement of a planet directly influences price action on Earth... rather the movements can be correlated to changes in price action in an evidence based way... If price tends to go down after a certain astrological event 10 times out of the last 11 then one begins to look for trend changes at the next occurrence of that event. Lots of back testing is required.... even then, one must first use regular technical indicators to make a decision about entering or exiting a market. The regular occurrence of price movement...
Hi,
Thanks for that explanation. That would be the type of statistical correlation that traders do look for - observation of astrological event that is linked to the observation of a particular subsequent price movement in a market, with a probability that is greater than random. That's great, it's exactly equivalent to observing a chart pattern or an out-of-consensus economic number predicting price move better than randomly. If true, it is the basis for a trading edge and developing a method to exploit it.

The key question is, is it really true? Can anyone demonstrate that an astrological event is a reliable - and reliable only means it has to be better than random in a large sample, nothing like 10 out of 11 - precursor to a price movement in a market?

I have never seen any such evidence presented. If anyone can show that, I'm as happy to use any astrological/planetary event as a trading guide as I am to use chart patterns or economic numbers or anything else. I try not to have preconceived ideas but I do need some evidence. Is there any?
  • #6,122
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:56am Mar 4, 2014 4:56am
Quoting marcmarc
{quote} Hi, Thanks for that explanation. That would be the type of statistical correlation that traders do look for - observation of astrological event that is linked to the observation of a particular subsequent price movement in a market, with a probability that is greater than random. That's great, it's exactly equivalent to observing a chart pattern or an out-of-consensus economic number predicting price move better than randomly. If true, it is the basis for a trading edge and developing a method to exploit it. The key question is, is it really...
I see your point. Here i attached a screen capture of Jupiter-Saturn Retrograde for EURUSD from Jan-2001 up to now Mar-2014. From astrologer perspective 12+ years of data is good enough to analyze Jupiter-Saturn cycle. From statistical point of view, we have a 99%+ probability that means it not random. This test clearly state the astrologer theory, after the culmination of Jupiter-Saturn retrograde there will be a clear direction for 2-3 days of economic drive. The statistical show us 22 hours - 72 hours after culmination of Jupiter-Saturn, there will be bearish movement of price for EURUSD with 99% probability.

For me it is still involve a risk because not 100%. I didn't think it is evidence enough, (we need a lot of samples, a lot of patterns, to reach that conclusion). Still, if i trade with conventional method, i prefer astro, they give me more than 80% probability.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JupSatEUretro.png Size: 179 KB
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,123
  • Mar 4, 2014 6:56am Mar 4, 2014 6:56am
[quote=KecoaKecil;7317831]{quote} I see your point. Here i attached a screen capture of Jupiter-Saturn Retrograde for EURUSD from Jan-2001 up to now Mar-2014....


Hi,

Thank you, that is excellent, at last someone giving some hard data rather than just vague opinion.

The correlation is very strong according to your data. If you really believed this linkage then, according to the statistics presented, there is certainly the potential for a profitable trading system there.

This belief requirement, however, I think takes us to the core of the problem for dealing on astro-based signals: to observe a correlation is one thing, but to have enough belief in it to actually trade on it is quite another.

There is always the possibility of the spurious correlation. For instance, there is an excellent and consistent correlation spanning over 200 years (a large sample size!) between average global temperature change and the incidence of piracy. The relationship is consistently very strong over a very long period - but would you really bet your cash that global warming will reverse if we saw next week a rise in reported piracy incidents? Ultimately, you are either going to believe the data or you are not.

That’s not actually a criticism of astro-based signals. Trading off chart patterns has a worryingly similar basis: pretty much all chart patterns cannot be statistically demonstrated to have any reliable predictive value. They certainly can’t match the stated probabilities of the Jupiter-Saturn retrograde for the EUR/USD market.

I say worryingly because I’m happy to trade chart price patterns but not astro signals! It’s a matter of personal belief. However, the likely general truth is that one is pretty much as good (or as useless) as the other.

It brings me to the conclusion that the analytical method is most probably not that important. As far as I can understand, what is likely far more relevant to trading success are things like risk control, and discipline & consistency in applying any given method, rather than the actual method itself.

Thank you for the astro data though, very interesting!
  • #6,124
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:05pm Mar 4, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting marcmarc
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} This belief requirement, however, I think takes us to the core of the problem for dealing on astro-based signals: to observe a correlation is one thing, but to have enough belief in it to actually trade on it is quite another.

Yes! You get to the heart of the dilemma every trader faces. It doesn't really matter how you get your edge... it is a strong belief in a particular methodology that is perhaps the most important thing. Proper money management and risk control become the most important element to maintain
...
I couldn't agree more!
  • #6,125
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:19pm Mar 4, 2014 8:19pm
MarcMarc,

Here is a chart of the EUR/USD, daily data from its inception to the present. The vertical lines mark every time Saturn has gone direct or retrograde since trading began... the results speaks for itself. I do recommend that you get the free demo of Timing Solution software (doesn't expire).

Notice that trend changes down to up, up to down, sideways to up, or perhaps down or up to an acceleration in the same direction... in any event there is a correlation to movement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 136 KB
  • #6,126
  • Mar 5, 2014 12:46am Mar 5, 2014 12:46am
[quote=jnevins;7319635]MarcMarc, Here is a chart of the EUR/USD, daily data from its inception to the present. The vertical lines mark every time Saturn has gone direct or retrograde since trading began... the results speaks for itself.

Hi,

Many thanks for that. I am sure a trading system can be created using astro-based entry indicators. Unfortunately, I also know that I simply do not have sufficient belief in the underlying premise to follow any such system with the necessary discipline and consistency. Failure to do that will be failure for my trading so I don't plan on going there.

Note this is a function of my belief set rather than a denial of the possible effectiveness of astro-based signals. What works for one person may or may not work for another, individual psyche and beliefs are critical components to trading. You can only trade what you are comfortable trading or you won't be able to follow the rules and/or endure massive stress.

Best of luck in your trading
  • #6,127
  • Mar 5, 2014 5:39am Mar 5, 2014 5:39am
hi kecoaceil first thanks for fast reply but i thought that venus is the euro planet why did you think that venus has effect on yen pairs
i can not argue with you i do not know in astro trading more than you
venus was in the capricorn house in the first day for euro in live charts 10 january 1999
and can you test the effect on venus entering aquarious and the bearish effect on eurusd
and you know i read few pages of tim bost book mercury,money and the market and he said that mercury affect the yen pairs
that 's why i asked you to see the effect of mercury direct stations at 28-2-2014 on yen pairs
you know i think that jupiter not any currency planet but it may be bullish for the most important event on that day
so at 7-11-2013 the ecb press conference was the most imporatant event and it was jupiter retrograde so it was bearish for this event so it was bearish for euro and if jupiter retrograde was in 8-11-2013 instead of 7-11-2013 the day of noo farm payrolls i think we were going to see the worst number for usd
so will tomorrow a bulllish day for euro or what
it is only venus enter aquarious with jupiter direct stations tomorrow which make confused because these two events i think they have opposite effects on eurusd
so i am asking you to test the effect of venus entering aquarious today and tell me the result for eurusd
  • #6,128
  • Mar 5, 2014 5:41am Mar 5, 2014 5:41am
sorry 10 january 1999 not the first day for euro live charts i think it was 3 january i am not sure of the day but it is not 10 ofcourse
  • #6,129
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:42am Mar 5, 2014 6:42am
Quoting mesi99
hi kecoaceil first thanks for fast reply but i thought that venus is the euro planet why did you think that venus has effect on yen pairs i can not argue with you i do not know in astro trading more than you venus was in the capricorn house in the first day for euro in live charts 10 january 1999 and can you test the effect on venus entering aquarious and the bearish effect on eurusd and you know i read few pages of tim bost book mercury,money and the market and he said that mercury affect the yen pairs that 's why i asked you to see the effect...
Please argue, ^_^ trust me, i am as new as you in this. The theory of which planet is "protector" of others come from my mother theory. Japan = venus, German = Mercury, American = Jupiter, UK = Saturn, Australia = Neptune. Statistic don't lie, so i can not say this theory hold if statistically not correct. ^_^ Actually i do not think EURO has just one "protector" since it is a union of countries. I hold bearish view of EU because of mercury, AU and GU bullish because of Saturn (it activated aquarius, the area of neptune). You are welcome to criticize. It is not my goal being right. It is my goal to find the truth.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,130
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:20am Mar 5, 2014 7:20am
Just my 2 cents......

I few years ago I was watching a documentary on television about moon cycles and human behavior. It was something like this:-

A survey at different police station studies showed that on a full moon the crime was more, so basically people tend to get more aggressive on different moon cycles.
  • #6,131
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:33am Mar 5, 2014 9:33am
Quoting pullice
Just my 2 cents...... I few years ago I was watching a documentary on television about moon cycles and human behavior. It was something like this:- A survey at different police station studies showed that on a full moon the crime was more, so basically people tend to get more aggressive on different moon cycles.

Yes... a well known fact... the full moon is the strongest indicator of increased police activity...
  • #6,132
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:42am Mar 5, 2014 9:42am
Quoting jnevins
{quote} Yes... a well known fact... the full moon is the strongest indicator of increased police activity...
So in a different way the solar system might have some connection,impact to trading, personally I wouldn't use it unless if it gave me 100% guaranteed winnings on 100% trades.
  • #6,133
  • Mar 5, 2014 2:11pm Mar 5, 2014 2:11pm
uk saturn i agree you know why at 8-7-2013 two days before fomc press confernece staurn diretc station at 9-7-2013 there was a very bad economic news drive gbpusd to its 2013 yearly low 1.4812 but if you look at the day candle of 8-7-2013 it was bullish candle but the day candle after it 9-7-2013 was a bearish candle that make me confused but at 10-7-2013 bernanke said that tapering will not be soon that make eurusd jump 400 pips in three hours and gbpusd turn from its yearly low at 1.4812 and jump 300 pips so i conclude that saturn is the gbp planet why beacuse gbp was the most currency that take a profit from saturn direct station astrological event but that day 9-7-2013 that make me not predicting the bullish movement of 10-7-2013

but you know last week we had saturn retrograde and i thought that will turn the bullish trend of gbpusd but itit was only monday that was a bearish day
and at 2010 saturn retrograde day that day was not bearish for gbpusd
ofcourse it is impossible to get gbp natal chart
but why do you say aud neptune i uploaded aud natal chart tell me your idea about it why did you connect aud to neptune
and i uploaded all natal charts i collect from google search except chf which is also old currency and it is not easy to find its natal chart beside until jordan remove the relation between eur and chf it is no use to look for natal chart of chf
for nzs there are two charts one for the currency and the other for the country as it is a new country
for usd there are two charts one when its relation with gold stopped and the other when first coinage
for eur there is the chart with explanasion and the same for jpy i know that venus is the ruler of taurus astrological house
but give me date of special astrological events of venus and its effeets on the yen charts and i think that astrologer like tim bost know much more than all of us nad he says that mercury affect the yen pairs
and where is your test for venus entering aquarious house and its effect on eurusd as i asked you there is a short time before eur rate decision and the press confernce it is only 16 hours where is your timing solution test for venus enter aquarious i do not know how to use timing solution
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen natal chart.PNG Size: 182 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro natal chart.PNG Size: 197 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud natal chart.PNG Size: 328 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd tim bost.PNG Size: 176 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: us gold stopped.PNG Size: 192 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: canadian dollar natal chart.PNG Size: 306 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: canadian dollar natal chart.PNG 2.PNG Size: 300 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd natal chart explanasion.PNG Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: new zealand natal chart explanasion2.PNG Size: 137 KB
  • #6,134
  • Mar 5, 2014 5:49pm Mar 5, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting mesi99
uk saturn i agree you know why at 8-7-2013 two days before fomc press confernece staurn diretc station at 9-7-2013 there was a very bad economic news drive gbpusd to its 2013 yearly low 1.4812 but if you look at the day candle of 8-7-2013 it was bullish candle but the day candle after it 9-7-2013 was a bearish candle that make me confused but at 10-7-2013 bernanke said that tapering will not be soon that make eurusd jump 400 pips in three hours and gbpusd turn from its yearly low at 1.4812 and jump 300 pips so i conclude that saturn is the gbp planet...
My mother theory come from the personification of the "protector" in each country. Australia has a great barrier reef which protect from the ocean current, and there never a tsunami hit. Supreme deity in japanese belief is a Female Sun Goddess, they pay attention to intricate details, governs more with emotion than logic. They love beautiful thing. German love to invent, engineer, fast movement and love battle of words. UK is aristocracy oriented, they love schedule, routine, and elegant sports. US like to lead, compete. Power hungry, they are idealistic, they believe in what is right and defends it, fiercely. That is how my mother construct the theory. For trading, of course we have to test and criticize with statistics and price movement. Clearly you have done much more research in this area. I can not say that my theory is better than others. What we need to do is to test the forex price data against the theory, and how the application of this will make a profitable trade for us.

Here my position of AUDUSD, when Neptune conjunct Moon (number 7, blue) I take the long position, the price has gap at monday (that worried me before) but clearly from that point it only have one direction. I close all position when Saturn Oppose Moon (number 5, red).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdih1.png Size: 33 KB
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,135
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:42pm Mar 5, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting mesi99
uk saturn i agree you know why at 8-7-2013 two days before fomc press confernece staurn diretc station at 9-7-2013 there was a very bad economic news drive gbpusd to its 2013 yearly low 1.4812 but if you look at the day candle of 8-7-2013 it was bullish candle but the day candle after it 9-7-2013 was a bearish candle that make me confused but at 10-7-2013 bernanke said that tapering will not be soon that make eurusd jump 400 pips in three hours and gbpusd turn from its yearly low at 1.4812 and jump 300 pips so i conclude that saturn is the gbp planet...
Let try to break this down. First GU, we have rate announcement, its a opposition of moon vs saturn, bearish? but its Saturn retro, my theory its going up.
From jan-2001 up to now, we have a bounce play around saturn retro, first bear up to 14 hours after stationary, then bounce up. Both are 76% probability.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GUmpcRate.jpg Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdih1.png Size: 29 KB
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,136
  • Mar 5, 2014 10:44pm Mar 5, 2014 10:44pm
Now for EU, it is not an easy reading, from mercury perspective, we have a bull (but if you notice, the control bars not really agree with), from saturn point we still bear. I think of staying out of the way for today. Let the trend developing some more.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUmercRetro.png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUsatRetro.png Size: 170 KB
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,137
  • Mar 6, 2014 4:04am Mar 6, 2014 4:04am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} My mother theory come from the personification of the "protector" in each country. Australia has a great barrier reef which protect from the ocean current, and there never a tsunami hit. Supreme deity in japanese belief is a Female Sun Goddess, they pay attention to intricate details, governs more with emotion than logic. They love beautiful thing. German love to invent, engineer, fast movement and love battle of words. UK is aristocracy oriented, they love schedule, routine, and elegant sports. US like to lead, compete. Power hungry, they...
Done for now. I can short now or wait for confirmation of retrace. I think i stay out and on into research.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdih1.png Size: 26 KB
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,138
  • Mar 6, 2014 4:30am Mar 6, 2014 4:30am
Quoting pullice
{quote} So in a different way the solar system might have some connection,impact to trading, personally I wouldn't use it unless if it gave me 100% guaranteed winnings on 100% trades.
Then you might wait a long time. Tell me then, most traders use technical , fundamental, and /or price action. Do they give us 100% guaranteed winnings on 100% trades? If not, why we use them? If they do, pleaseeee share.. (begging.. )
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,139
  • Mar 6, 2014 8:10am Mar 6, 2014 8:10am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Let try to break this down. First GU, we have rate announcement, its a opposition of moon vs saturn, bearish? but its Saturn retro, my theory its going up. From jan-2001 up to now, we have a bounce play around saturn retro, first bear up to 14 hours after stationary, then bounce up. Both are 76% probability. {image} {image} {image}
Close my GU position on very small profit. This quite a surprise, saturn fail this time. On contrary, EU mercury play is on. I take it into account for EU next time.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #6,140
  • Mar 6, 2014 8:40am Mar 6, 2014 8:40am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Done for now. I can short now or wait for confirmation of retrace. I think i stay out and on into research. {image}
tonight rba gov stevens speak i think aud may go up during this speak
and the natal chart in post 6135 belongs to which currency
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