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  • #5,281
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:47pm Mar 4, 2014 12:47pm
Hm it looks like I saw the right signals to go long on GBPJPY and EURJPY. But they bounced around a little with the prize.

Buit what is a decent stoploss than, 50 pips?
  • #5,282
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:55pm Mar 4, 2014 1:55pm
Quoting letterB
Hm it looks like I saw the right signals to go long on GBPJPY and EURJPY. But they bounced around a little with the prize. Buit what is a decent stoploss than, 50 pips?
that's the nasty part of the multi TF equation i'm afraid : until we get more proficient at lining them all up at the right time, we have to expect fakeouts.
Say you get a setup on D and H4, a divergence indicating an approaching top for example : you wait until a move short starts on the lower TF and jump in. The move short on H1 could still be a tiny retrace short on the last push long (D/H4), and this will get you stopped out, and even worse, make you doubt your analysis and potentially miss the real start of the move short that you expected in the first place.

Sound familiar? It's my personal hell at the moment lol

There is no real help I can offer you yet in that regard, and I've seen Alien caution multiple times on multiple pairs that an imminent move may first make a fakeout, so we are in good company I think.

About the stoploss : Since the fakeouts will likely keep getting us for a while longer, you may as well keep the stops tight and consider them the price to be paid as 'feelers' for the start of the big moves. 3x30 pip stopouts is annoying, but if the 4th attempt catches the actual top or bottom of a higher TF trend it may be worth it. Forcing yourself to play tight stops will also train you to pick better entries I think, while a wide stoploss encourages sloppy entries. I mean absolutely no offense to people with wide stoplosses here, there is no one right way to do things.
The game taught me the game. And it didn't spare me the rod while teaching.
  • #5,283
  • Mar 4, 2014 2:10pm Mar 4, 2014 2:10pm
Well I thought I am the only one that get stopped out in this thread, so your post is very welcome yaysayer : )
  • #5,284
  • Mar 4, 2014 2:14pm Mar 4, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting letterB
Well I thought I am the only one that get stopped out in this thread, so your post is very welcome yaysayer : )
Glad to see my misery brightened your day a bit
The game taught me the game. And it didn't spare me the rod while teaching.
  • #5,285
  • Mar 4, 2014 3:52pm Mar 4, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting yaysayer
{quote} Glad to see my misery brightened your day a bit
You could move your stoploss quiet immediatly to break even on a lower timeframe maybe. So if price comes back you played not with your own money
  • #5,286
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:35pm Mar 4, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} H1 long looks healthy H4 has found a bottom, an H1 retrace (short) will happen when the H1 finds a top............but the daily is beginning a BBS, I would not trade this long for very far or at all. the GBPUSD H4 looks to have a CROSS forming, once completed I see further downside for the pound................
Cross seems to have confirmed or would my entry here still be 1 candle to early Alien? It's an overnight trade so i put SL at last H4 swing high and TP at just above 1.66 for almost 1:1 RR.

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  • #5,287
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:36pm Mar 4, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting forexalien
USDCHF - monthly - short week short to nearing a bottom......... Daily nearing a bottom........ H4 still short, ADX expansion full short - DS and RSIma have turned back down............all sto's below 20 line H1 sto's nearing a bottom, ADX expansion is short soon to rest, RSIoma and ds nearing a bottom............

USDCHF UPDATE _ nearing a bottom must be a trend or something....................

M15 DS trade setup..........
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #5,288
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:38pm Mar 4, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting yaysayer
{quote} that's the nasty part of the multi TF equation i'm afraid : until we get more proficient at lining them all up at the right time, we have to expect fakeouts. Say you get a setup on D and H4, a divergence indicating an approaching top for example : you wait until a move short starts on the lower TF and jump in. The move short on H1 could still be a tiny retrace short on the last push long (D/H4), and this will get you stopped out, and even worse, make you doubt your analysis and potentially miss the real start of the move short that you expected...
I will see if I can clarify fake outs and how to avoid them....................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #5,289
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:42pm Mar 4, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} Cross seems to have confirmed or would my entry here still be 1 candle to early Alien? It's an overnight trade so i put SL at last H4 swing high and TP at just above 1.66 for almost 1:1 RR. {image}
I think you are right on this one !

a closed H4 candle and 8,3,3 is still down, also the RSIOMA is dropping below the 50 line with some steepness to it, DS on the H1 and the M15 at this time, and both their green sto's are down also,

this could be a few day trade it looks like, daily 8,3,3 is pointing down also.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #5,290
  • Mar 4, 2014 6:19pm Mar 4, 2014 6:19pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} I will see if I can clarify fake outs and how to avoid them....................
Cheers

From what I've observed the longterm trend changes when all 3 stochs rise from <20 or drop from >80, and trendchange is confirmed when 100-stoch switches side. The fakes that get me is when the 100-stoch crosses the 20/80 line but drops again almost immediately, giving the active trend one final rush. Dropping down helps with catching a move when it starts, but before that i often end up in the shorter retraces from the highTF move, like i described in my post.

I hope I gave enough detail to show my thinking, I'm either missing something or I just need more screen staring

Looking forward to hear your thoughts.
The game taught me the game. And it didn't spare me the rod while teaching.
  • #5,291
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:40pm Mar 4, 2014 7:40pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} M1 topped out , M15 was nearing a top, H1 shows price divergence to come back down, we must look at MTF's ..............to stay safe.......
Is it best to just ignore setups like this near tops and bottoms then? I was aware of the top but thought all those signals would help push it through.

On a side note, I sold EURJPY and GBPJPY earlier this evening, up 20 pips on both so far...
The pips are out there
  • #5,292
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:20am Mar 5, 2014 6:20am
Quoting Fox Mulder
{quote} Is it best to just ignore setups like this near tops and bottoms then? I was aware of the top but thought all those signals would help push it through. On a side note, I sold EURJPY and GBPJPY earlier this evening, up 20 pips on both so far...
Look at your RSIoma, how it swings up and down with the other TF's , that helps you stay the trend direction when there is fake outs..............If the H1 and H4 are long , and the M15 ,M5, M1 are topping , this is where a small retrace or short term price direction will change.....
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #5,293
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:21am Mar 5, 2014 6:21am
Quoting yaysayer
{quote} Cheers From what I've observed the longterm trend changes when all 3 stochs rise from <20 or drop from >80, and trendchange is confirmed when 100-stoch switches side. The fakes that get me is when the 100-stoch crosses the 20/80 line but drops again almost immediately, giving the active trend one final rush. Dropping down helps with catching a move when it starts, but before that i often end up in the shorter retraces from the highTF move, like i described in my post. I hope I gave enough detail to show my thinking, I'm either missing...
The green sto is the direction of trend and price............

The black sto is the heartbeat of the market and travels long and short as the trend moves along............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #5,294
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:08am Mar 5, 2014 7:08am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The green sto is the direction of trend and price............ The black sto is the heartbeat of the market and travels long and short as the trend moves along............
I may have been unclear. I know the green stoch represents the active trend, with the wobbles in the 8-stoch mimicking the current price moves. I call the 100-stoch the longtermtrend because once it crosses 50 i know the trend has been "activated" on the higher TF. If I am already in a trade, i will move to a higher TF for monitoring when that happens. At that TF it simply becomes the trend on the green stoch again, and I repeat the wait for the 100 stoch to cross 50 (if the trend gets picked up on even higher TF) while monitoring for ADX exit signals..

I'm having trouble putting my rationale in words tbh, I need to come up with a better explanation of how I do it
The game taught me the game. And it didn't spare me the rod while teaching.
  • #5,295
  • Edited 9:31am Mar 5, 2014 8:55am | Edited 9:31am
forexalien one thing really confuses me is ADX compression and expansion. When smaller timeframes switches off but larger are still green on adx dashboard.

How to interpret add power correctly is something I have most trouble with. I know that prize goes to sleep when its off but I know there is more "to it" than that…

an example of mixed signals from adx:

http://screencast.com/t/MfPlRdSYwrg

And another thing, you put a lot of attention on Trendchannel indicator? You have it on all timeframes?
  • #5,296
  • Mar 5, 2014 1:47pm Mar 5, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} I will see if I can clarify fake outs and how to avoid them....................
This example can be one of them?
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Work smarter,not harder
  • #5,297
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:14pm Mar 5, 2014 7:14pm
Family AUD at its peak!

Hope you guys had made many pips
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #5,298
  • Mar 5, 2014 8:25pm Mar 5, 2014 8:25pm
Good day,

looks like long move is preparing on UJ

Please, comment
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  • #5,299
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:42pm Mar 5, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting sanjar434
Good day, looks like long move is preparing on UJ Please, comment {image}

Looks good, hope you got in earlier, around 102.50.
Great DS and RSIOMA separation.
Reversal of green stoch at 50.

Watch out for:
There is bearish divergence on H4.
Selling zone around 65-80.

Good luck if you're in. Put a stop at +1 to protect against a drop.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #5,300
  • Mar 6, 2014 1:50am Mar 6, 2014 1:50am
Morning


DS setup in german index DAX

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