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  • #3,141
  • Mar 2, 2014 11:29am Mar 2, 2014 11:29am
Quoting The Fool
What's the mood like in Heidi country, njr - are the Swiss getting worked up about Putin's tanks rolling into Ukraine?
Hey TF,

I just finished up a nice day on the pistes - life is tough!!!

This should be an interesting week ahead with an impending war in Ukraine. There is still a bit of time before the market opens and a lot can happen but I would expect to see a little bit of a pullback given the situation there......

As usual, the Swiss are keeping their neutral stance and will try to mediate whilst at the same time they have frozen assets of Viktor Yanukovych....

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics...l?cid=38043092

You looking at any particular earnings this week? I'll have a look at see what opportunities there are. Might place another IC similar to DECK.....
  • #3,142
  • Mar 2, 2014 11:39am Mar 2, 2014 11:39am
Quoting The Fool
ER's out in the coming weeks: 2/24: FSLR, HD; 2/25: TOL; 2/26: BIDU, CHK, TGT, RIG; 2/27: BBY, CRM, MBT; 3/3: MBI; 3/6: COST; 3/13: KKD; 3/17: KBH; 3/18: ADBE; 3/20: ORCL
earnings season has played down and targets are few for the next few weeks, but if you are selling options I'd bet you can always find likely victims.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,143
  • Mar 2, 2014 11:46am Mar 2, 2014 11:46am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} earnings season has played down and targets are few for the next few weeks, but if you are selling options I'd bet you can always find likely victims.
Thanks TF - Yeah it will be quieter on the earning front but I'll go through your list and if I can find some of the remaining opportunities on earning. Otherwise, I'll go back to selling options on the index...Also, if your into commodities NG, KC and SB have all had increased in their IV recently so I'll check these out as well....
  • #3,144
  • Mar 2, 2014 12:07pm Mar 2, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Thanks TF - Yeah it will be quieter on the earning front but I'll go through your list and if I can find some of the remaining opportunities on earning. Otherwise, I'll go back to selling options on the index...Also, if your into commodities NG, KC and SB have all had increased in their IV recently so I'll check these out as well....
yup I am watching natgas and looking for short action on UNG if it will move up > $27 again. Ukraine developments complicate the global natgas scene but US market maybe insulated, we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,145
  • Mar 2, 2014 12:55pm Mar 2, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
BIDU I see up $13 AH on a $0.02 beat, another I will be looking to fade. What, did they announce a gigabadoo? Be just my luck.
fading the ER moves, not looking too bad
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-02_bidu.png Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-02_fslr.png Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-02_chk.png Size: 130 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,146
  • Mar 2, 2014 1:04pm Mar 2, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} fading the ER moves, not looking too bad {image} {image} {image}
...or not....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-02_tgt.png Size: 125 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,147
  • Mar 2, 2014 2:50pm Mar 2, 2014 2:50pm
KKD, like lots of less active stocks, trades as much in the 2-3 days around the ER as it does in a typical month. ...never recovered from the beatdown it got at the last ER...

I am gun shy about putting on long strangles at ER's now, having seen the last two I played result in TOTAL LOSSES.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-02_kkd.png Size: 127 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,148
  • Mar 2, 2014 2:56pm Mar 2, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting The Fool
I am gun shy about putting on long strangles at ER's now, having seen the last two I played result in TOTAL LOSSES. {image}
IF I had played long straddles on those last two, with about a month dte, I might have made some money....certainly would have cut losses....which begs the question...(?)

...key may be for straddles try buy them before price may ramp up with increase iv pre-earnings, at least a week or 2 before the ER.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,149
  • Mar 3, 2014 2:18am Mar 3, 2014 2:18am
Quoting njr
{quote} Thanks TF - Yeah it will be quieter on the earning front but I'll go through your list and if I can find some of the remaining opportunities on earning. Otherwise, I'll go back to selling options on the index...Also, if your into commodities NG, KC and SB have all had increased in their IV recently so I'll check these out as well....
Hey TF - some other notable companies reporting this week that I'll keep an eye on:

Ascena - 3/3 after market close
Solarcity - 3/3 after market close (Note - this is one of Elon Musk's so careful as there may be a gigafactory announcement )
Autozone - 3/4 - before open
Brown Forman - 3/5 - before open
Joy Global - 3/6 - before open
Foot Locker - 3/7 - before open
  • #3,150
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:43am Mar 3, 2014 8:43am
Quoting njr
{quote} My position: SOLD UNG Feb28'14 36 CALL @AMEX @ 0.06 Unfortunately this is a partial fill and the remainder of the order is still pending!
Update on position:

Position closed. The options expired OTM and profit received = 0.06 per contract
  • #3,151
  • Edited 12:43pm Mar 3, 2014 11:14am | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TLT short bets are off if the shoosting begins. I was is am still holding out for $109+ anyway. This weekend we prolly see Putin riding a tank with his shirt off in the Crimea...
TLT over $109, ^TNX 2.61%. Will hold off pending global macro conditions, we could see a steady drop in ^TNX on the week to < 2.50% and TLT > $110.

Same with ^VIX, has gone up 17%, UVXY at $76, watching for moves toward $100.

I'd bet on a "diplomatic solution" to Ukraine situation and a fallback in volatility, but if and when are good questions and I will wait and watch for now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,152
  • Mar 3, 2014 12:21pm Mar 3, 2014 12:21pm
Trying a bull put spread on RSX.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,153
  • Mar 3, 2014 12:25pm Mar 3, 2014 12:25pm
Flipping to bearish on bonds, favouring short calls from here. If we get a push north of here though, it could be explosive, requiring covering with the underlying.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,154
  • Mar 3, 2014 12:59pm Mar 3, 2014 12:59pm
Selling an April 106 call on crude.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,155
  • Mar 3, 2014 1:31pm Mar 3, 2014 1:31pm
BW thinks it's a bear flash in the pan. Well I wouldn't be surprised, but still I wait....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,156
  • Mar 3, 2014 3:24pm Mar 3, 2014 3:24pm
so whadda ya'll think, can the bull market put in a string of down days on the whiff of WWIII?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,157
  • Mar 3, 2014 3:38pm Mar 3, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting The Fool
so whadda ya'll think, can the bull market put in a string of down days on the whiff of WWIII?
It's been an interesting day! I'm stating the obvious but if things get worse the market could move further down but any compromise / resolution will pop the market back up. For the moment I'm hanging back and watching where this goes in the coming day. I'm assuming there will be a few more days of muscle flexing from all sides before some agreement is reached.

My watch list for the next few days include:

 

  1. The usual risk off trades such as at USD.JPY (6J) and GC.
  2. NG and CL given Ukraine importance with these commodities. Interesting CL has moved higher but NG has dropped.
  3. ES mini


Unfortunately I got back home a late tonight and missed out on the earnings play for SCTY which is trading down 2% AH! Bugger!!!!

  • #3,158
  • Mar 3, 2014 3:41pm Mar 3, 2014 3:41pm
Zero Hedge's summary of the Ukraine situation....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...without-russia
  • #3,159
  • Mar 3, 2014 3:57pm Mar 3, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting njr
{quote} It's been an interesting day! I'm stating the obvious but if things get worse the market could move further down but any compromise / resolution will pop the market back up. For the moment I'm hanging back and watching where this goes in the coming day. I'm assuming there will be a few more days of muscle flexing from all sides before some agreement is reached.
Yup I think it'll blow over and if your timing is right can be a good opp to catch a risk off/on switch. I am watching the commods as well, although I think gold may be slow to fall back...idk, a little too much vodka and a twitchy trigger finger could blow it wide open...will be waiting watching into tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,160
  • Mar 3, 2014 4:40pm Mar 3, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting The Fool
BW thinks it's a bear flash in the pan. Well I wouldn't be surprised, but still I wait....
I think it's a sideshow, at least for the moment.


I've been looking at the 10 and 30 year yield charts as opposed to the price charts and it seems to me I may be wrong to flip. ..thinking..
Maybe I'll close the trade; maybe I'll get long the underlying. Dunno.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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