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Oktoberfest Nightclub

  • #2,541
  • Feb 28, 2014 11:40am Feb 28, 2014 11:40am
nice weekend to all
  • #2,542
  • Feb 28, 2014 11:41am Feb 28, 2014 11:41am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} I get headache with E/A. I entered a small long and we made now 280 Pips. I was not sure to enter a bigger position. But profit is profit. I will close above 1.5500 my long and watch for sell entrys. {quote}
Small positions are always profitable because no worries about drawdown

Scalping is difficult for me but positioning is easier and enter at set levels - set the risk then let it run
  • #2,543
  • Feb 28, 2014 12:01pm Feb 28, 2014 12:01pm
True, had the same problem with EUR/AUD. Also I know that I should not have been trading this after taking profit. But this is something that still occurs from time to time: I have closed positions in profit and then try to add to it without good analysis. Very hard sometimes to control yourself, but actually that is what we have to master. Nice weekend!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,544
  • Feb 28, 2014 2:28pm Feb 28, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} some good reasons for 1.3902/3 {image}


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  • #2,545
  • Feb 28, 2014 2:52pm Feb 28, 2014 2:52pm
Added a swing before the weekend, short NZD/USD at 0,8390, SL 0,8440, TP in the region around 0,8220. Why? Region over 0,8400 was rejected several times and a lot of sellers coming in at these levels, also risky to go long here. Maybe I am totally wrong, we will see next week.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,546
  • Edited 3:55am Mar 1, 2014 3:44am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting selym_co
Hi Shickeria ; I just saw your EW count. I want to ask something about the inner wave structure of (iii) ... As I know (I know almost nothing about EW) wave 4 shud not violate the territory of wave 1 , but its not like that on the chart in ur post. Is it a tolerable thing in some extraordinary situations ? Or is it totally normal ? I hope I was good at explaining what I meant Regards...
Hi selym,

i just saw your post. Some people count Elliott Waves with 1-2-3-4-5. But most time (80%-90% my own view) we see bigger A-B-C flats with micro moves that you can count with 1-2-3-4-5. And from my view the whole EURUSD is ABC correction. I don't see on higher timeframes 1-2-3-4-5 moves. And that is fact. As you can see the november move on EU was a clear a-b-c-d-e move that you can not count with 1-2-3-4-5 (while wave 3 should have the strongest momentum and the strongest momentum we saw in wave 5). And the february move is the same pattern formation that you can count with abcde.

Watch this guy he is always counting with 1-2-3-4-5 and he is most time wrong. From this count wee should target minimum at 1.3200/3100. And where are we now ???? The same you can see on GBP/USD he counted 1-2 and he is wrong. And i can only laugh about this guy.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/326...ing-much-lower
If you want to count serious some pairs, you can count max. 3 pairs per day. that is my view and not more. I'm sure this guy don't earn money with trading only with subscriptions. How can a guy count 20 Pairs per day and earn money???? That is not possible from my view. The shittly results you can see on his homepage if you count 20 Pairs per day.
Watch what they posted on 3. Feb.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post7270124


If you count A-B-C you are most time right while the whole EURUSD is a ABC correction. If anyone have a another view we can discuss - but please post a chart with your view and your own count. I'm counting most time with a-b-c and my view is most time right.

But the best way to trade EW is watch the only 11 Pattern formations and fibonacci ratios incl. fibo clusterzones. If you use this you will earn a good money. That is my view. And that is not difficult to learn the 11 pattern formations and the fibo targets. Here a smal description how it works
http://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j&...62286460,d.Yms

I often trade on M1 chart the fibonacci targets and the pattern formations. If works very well. But people watching for the big trend where they can make 500 Pips with one entry. And that is difficult to predict for someone and no one can predict it before. That is the problem.

But i don't see your count or your targets for reverse moves how are you thinking fini?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7311449
  • #2,547
  • Mar 1, 2014 7:16am Mar 1, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Hi selym, i just saw your post. Some people count Elliott Waves with 1-2-3-4-5. But most time (80%-90% my own view) we see bigger A-B-C flats with micro moves that you can count with 1-2-3-4-5. And from my view the whole EURUSD is ABC correction. I don't see on higher timeframes 1-2-3-4-5 moves. And that is fact. As you can see the november move on EU was a clear a-b-c-d-e move that you can not count with 1-2-3-4-5 (while wave 3 should have the strongest momentum and the strongest momentum we saw in wave 5). And the february move is the...

Hi Schickeria ,

I really know almost nothing about EW , but I believe in natural cycles and the ratio between those cycles. And I totally ignore fundamentals thinking that they happen just because they are meant to happen. This perspective is called as fatalism in literature (I graduated from the department of literature , so I am kinda interested in philosophy) . And when I saw Elliot's perspective in some quotations taken from his book , my angle of looking at the market was confirmed in some ways In other words I do not have any EW counts , but I like their loyalty to the cycles.

On the other side I have expectations for the price made by circles. What I observed in the market is the cycles are mostly 1,618 of the previous one (I am not talking about the horizantal levels) .Let me show an example which I have in my archive ...

The radius of the second (outer) circle is 1,618 of the radius of the inner circle. And İts so clear how the 1,618 circle acted as a resistence for the price. I guess it was Wave 1 according to ellioticians. And later the pullback was stopped by the outer line of the inner circle :


http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/901/5dw3.png


In this second picture 1,618 circle again acted as a resistence and target for the natural cycle.It cannot be coincidence :


http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/897/py42.png


And what is the next target ?


http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/7913/nz15.png


The outer pink 1,618 circle is the target of the price in my perspective. Week by week (its a weekly chart) the target of the price is coming to lower levels due to the descending structure of the circular resistence (1,618 circle) . But when we look at the past in order to understand the characteristics of this circular zone we see a period of conflict between bulls and the bears. I mean 1,618 target shud not be reached easily , or at least the traders wil have lots of ups and downs.


Here is the chart with inner supports and resistences which really fits the price :


http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/3945/qypk.png


I am almost sure that the price will reach and touch that 1,618 circle , but not sure about the next ...If it will be the same with most common wave structure , then the pink circle shud be the start of a big correction. In case that circle is broken (which is a small possibility for now) 1,57 ish prices will be my target ( its just an utopia )

Here is the daily chart which is my roadmap at the moment and seems to be acting well :

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/8981/axmi.png



Sorry that I cudnt answer the question in terms of elliot waves , but this is how I look at the market.

Regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #2,548
  • Mar 2, 2014 9:14am Mar 2, 2014 9:14am
E/CAD Monthly chart is very bullish

Current PA is above 50% = 1.48182 and below 61.8% = 1.54530. It will test this 61.8% sooner and later (have sell limits on this level).

U/CAD is below 50% = 1.12xx should be challenged again will have to wait for make or break then make another plan.

E/CAD Monthly
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E/AUD Monthly is neutral to bullish.
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Opened E/A short before Friday close @ 1.45851 right at January Monthly open risking 10 pips. Expecting some resistance or correction at this level but will closely watch data from China and Aussie. Hoping Sunday opening (March) will have no gap up from Friday and February close otherwise will be totally screwed.

Attached Image



Wish everyone many green pips in March.
  • #2,549
  • Mar 2, 2014 11:09am Mar 2, 2014 11:09am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} I often trade on M1 chart the fibonacci targets and the pattern formations. If works very well. But people watching for the big trend where they can make 500 Pips with one entry. And that is difficult to predict for someone and no one can predict it before. That is the problem. But i don't see your count or your targets for reverse moves how are you thinking fini? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7311449

Hi Schickeria,

agree completely: betting on EW to get the 500 to 1000 pip moves is a futile attempt. Such moves are normally not made within a short span of time. So social mood, which drives prices, can change a lot in the meantime. So even when the idea of the beginning of the trade was the one with the highest probability, social mood can change with a dime and you end up with a loss or being stopped out.

Since Elliott Waves are fractal, the basics for all trades, long time or down to scalping, are all the same.

By changing to ever smaller TF's to trade you eventually change one devil with another. The devil of the higher TF is simply the time, and thus the probability for things to simply change (social mood, fundamental events etc. etc.).

Trading small TF you can "exclude" many of this factors.

The devil of the lower TF's is, that you are counting substructures, and sub-sub-structures etc.

Problem with this is:

a) you get eventually even more probabilistic outcomes

and important:

b) you are prone to try to count the "meaningless" white noise.

Even when we acknowledge in Elliott Wave, that change of mood (so change of price) is first to be recognized on low TF's, and is set forth into higher TF's, it is important to recognize, that most of the time the true intention is only meaningful reflected for our eyes in the higher TF's (call it the bullshit filter).

You can trade both, subwaves or macro-waves. But most of the time you see people making the fault to treat the long term (macro-wave) trades with the same means than the short term trades regarding leverage and risk/money management.


My view is, that on very low TF like the minute or sub minute charts for scalping purpose, it makes more sense to only try to understand some EW pattern than to get the whole story right.


See also what I wrote today. See the important video of ElliottTrader. He is not only spot on most of the time with his counts, his new video is really priceless:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post7313431
  • #2,550
  • Mar 2, 2014 11:15am Mar 2, 2014 11:15am
Quoting selym_co
{quote} . And I totally ignore fundamentals thinking that they happen just because they are meant to happen....
Who (what) meant them to happen?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,551
  • Mar 2, 2014 11:30am Mar 2, 2014 11:30am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} But i don't see your count or your targets for reverse moves how are you thinking fini? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7311449

Hard to say at the moment. I do not like the fact, that price already went so high. But I have showed it in some volume distribution charts month ago, that there is an area up to the low 14x range which may be prone to volume fill.

So I had to struggle with my competing EW understanding (which is bearish, when it comes to EU) and a more bullish view when looking at the volume profiles.

Well, when we reverse here or say up to max. 3855, chances get really high, that the whole upmove may be over. So we can face a sustained move down, which could go down into the low 1.17 to 1.12 to extended 1.07 (current Murrey Math targets).

When we assume, that the first wave down from the 1.6x top was wave A, and we are now in wave E up (of triangle) (of wave B up), than a common length for the wave C down would be the widest distance of the preceding triangle, so the move down could be around 3200-3300 pips.

That is long term music.

A move above 3855 makes us prone to more upside, maybe likely a test of the 4160 area.

When the last high at 3892 is not breached, chances are high, that we will see a wave 3 down, which should bring us into the 1.3114 to 1.3060 range

The 3080 area is a very high volume zone which has developed over years.

Maybe we will try to get near this zone in a series of 1-2. 1-2 moves, in order to not exhaust momentum. Such a zone can only be broken with high momentum in my view.

When 3892 is broken, we have to assess the situation anew.


So at this point we have low risk high reward short options: short towards 3855 (or immediately) and set SL just above the high at 3892 for long term trades.
  • #2,552
  • Mar 2, 2014 12:58pm Mar 2, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Who (what) meant them to happen?
Well , I do not have any doubt about that sentence ... yes I think fundamentals happen just because they are meant to happen. This does not mean that they are useless , its just my perspective. What I think / believe / see is there is a great authority which does not let "coincidence" rule the universe including even financial markets. There is an algorithmic harmony within these cycles. Maybe the cycles in the market has similar specialities because of the main factor which shapes it : social action(s) and reaction(s) . Ok , I can explain in a more clear way

If EURUSD = x , then what I say is : the great authority has a schedule for x for y (date) .

And x= a+b+c+.... (all a , b , c ,... are fundamental datas that are released)

All a,b,c are organized in a way to result in X ...

As a summary , yes a,b and c are all important , but they are just the catalizors of X which is decided earlier.

Elliot also had a similar perspective ... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post7289828

Regards ...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #2,553
  • Mar 2, 2014 1:10pm Mar 2, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting selym_co
{quote} Well , I do not have any doubt about that sentence ... yes I think fundamentals happen just because they are meant to happen. Regards ...
I do not dispute your point of view, but you didn't answer the question. What agency determines the occurrence of "fundamentals"? If they are "meant" to happen, who or what "means" for them to happen?

And, for that matter, if things happen because they are predetermined to happen, isn't your success or failure as a trader predetermined, as well?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,554
  • Mar 2, 2014 1:31pm Mar 2, 2014 1:31pm
Quoting The Fool
...What agency determines the occurrence of "fundamentals"? If they are "meant" to happen, who or what "means" for them to happen? ...isn't your success or failure as a trader predetermined, as well?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatalism (which is just a brief explanation)

"Fatalism is a philosophical doctrine stressing the subjugation of all events or actions to fate."

Yes , all of them are predetermined by God / Super Ego / Mass of Energy (Quantum Physics) , .... there are many names that can be given to that authority.

And yes my success is predetermined too , and it has cycles too . My success and failure are just two types of cycles (impulse and correction) which happen in terms following each other...

On the other side fundamentals (being catolizors) help us see the big picture and the timinds of the cycles. So they are good in that way !!!

I might be totally wrong , will not accept that until the day I totally fail ! And I will enjoy each cycle in my life .

Regards ...

EDIT : By the way I am not an elliotician , showing a quotation from Elliot's book shudnt make you think that I know much of his perspective I just love the way they look at the market ...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #2,555
  • Mar 2, 2014 1:43pm Mar 2, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting selym_co
{quote} Well , I do not have any doubt about that sentence ... yes I think fundamentals happen just because they are meant to happen. This does not mean that they are useless , its just my perspective. What I think / believe / see is there is a great authority which does not let "coincidence" rule the universe including even financial markets. There is an algorithmic harmony within these cycles. Maybe the cycles in the market has similar specialities because of the main factor which shapes it : social action(s) and reaction(s) . Ok , I can explain...



if x = a+b+c.......

and at the same time you believe that there are Elliott waves, than

x=a+b+c..... is way to deterministic, because all events worldwide need to be orchestrated in that way, that a+b+c........ translates into the Elliott Waves impulses and corrections.

Yes, in currency trading there are some mega-fundamental-events, that can cause a shift in sentiment, like rate hikes etc.

But who will tell us, that the shift in sentiment was not on its way anyway? Central bankers are only part of the herd, too.


Price is simply an aggreement between two or more participants. If social mood is up, so does price go up.
  • #2,556
  • Mar 2, 2014 1:47pm Mar 2, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting selym_co
{quote}Yes , all of them are predetermined by God / Super Ego / Mass of Energy (Quantum Physics) , .... there are many names that can be given to that authority. And yes my success is predetermined too , and it has cycles too . My success and failure are just two types of cycles (impulse and correction) which happen in terms following each other......
If I were you, then, I would ignore the technicals AND the fundamentals, and just tune in to my own win/lose cycles. If my success/failure in trading is predetermined and cyclical, I merely trade when God (Super Ego, etc) wants me to win, and stop trading when he does not.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,557
  • Mar 2, 2014 2:02pm Mar 2, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If I were you, then, I would ignore the technicals AND the fundamentals, and just tune in to my own win/lose cycles. If my success/failure in trading is predetermined and cyclical, I merely trade when God (Super Ego, etc) wants me to win, and stop trading when he does not.

Effective answer !! Really created question marks in my mind I shud make a chart of my own in order to detect my cycles For sure it wud increase my success ....

Anyway , I will fill a cup of tea for myself , and think ...

reagrrds...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #2,558
  • Mar 2, 2014 2:16pm Mar 2, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} if x = a+b+c....... and at the same time you believe that there are Elliott waves, than x=a+b+c..... is way to deterministic, because all events worldwide need to be orchestrated in that way, that a+b+c........ translates into the Elliott Waves impulses and corrections. Yes, in currency trading there are some mega-fundamental-events, that can cause a shift in sentiment, like rate hikes etc. But who will tell us, that the shift in sentiment was not on its way anyway? Central bankers are only part of the herd, too. Price is simply...

Forecasting the future has always been one of the biggest passions of human kind since early ages. As I know ancient egyptians had mathemetical formulas for such things to forecast fertile and un-fertile (a newly created word) periods. And astrology was even used to forecast the future too. And Gann , being a mathemetician who studied ancient egyptian mathematics and astrology focused on natural cycles . Having a very similar aproach with Elliot , he even forecasted wars and disasters (I dont know if his predictions about such things hit the traget or not) . In other words he just focused on predetermined cycles .

Chaos ... I do not think it is wat moves the market. I havent read anything about that theory , so I cannot criticize anything about it. But Its really obvious that history repeats itself. And its possible to forecast the future by measuring the past ...

Well , I will stop ... I feel as if I am posting things that are not supposed to be posted here ...

Regards...Have a good week everyone ...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #2,559
  • Mar 2, 2014 2:19pm Mar 2, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting selym_co
{quote} Effective answer !! Really created question marks in my mind I shud make a chart of my own in order to detect my cycles For sure it wud increase my success .... Anyway , I will fill a cup of tea for myself , and think ... reagrrds...
OK, well...Good Luck! (A tautology, I know, since Luck is all there is.....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,560
  • Mar 2, 2014 4:54pm Mar 2, 2014 4:54pm
Looks like I should look for a new broker. Good that I did not have a position on EUR/AUD. This is the one hour chart. WTF?!?!

http://charts.mql5.com/4/49/euraud-h...al-markets.png
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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