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  • #161
  • Feb 22, 2014 7:51am Feb 22, 2014 7:51am
Quoting genie
{quote} Trading is about chance, if you say there is absolutely no chance in it then you don't know how the markets really work. The reason why your equity curve slopes the right way right now is because of a lucky streak. I see absolutely no benefit in putting on so much risk. No matter how you put it, a martingale is always a martingale system. You increase risk when positions go against you and it seems like there's no limitations on that point. Anyways, like you said its not a trading system thread so I will leave it. Thanks for replying and...

Thats the difference between you and me. You know nothing about my system but you are so quick to criticize it. Gl to you
  • #162
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:43pm Feb 22, 2014 1:43pm
IMO, Capelli is doing great based on his trading style. I see no reasons why you want to criticize him. May be you should show us your results to reveal how good you are. ​
  • #163
  • Feb 22, 2014 2:30pm Feb 22, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting vipbluesky
IMO, Capelli is doing great based on his trading style. I see no reasons why you want to criticize him. May be you should show us your results to reveal how good you are. ​

Thank you VBS. The guy is probably a losing trader and think that because he cant make it no one will.
  • #164
  • Feb 22, 2014 7:15pm Feb 22, 2014 7:15pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} Thats the difference between you and me. You know nothing about my system but you are so quick to criticize it. Gl to you
Hi Capelli

I can't understand why some people are so bitter about somebody who is actually succeeding in their trading. Having looked trough a few of your trades it is clear that the results are down to good trading and a what appears to be a systematic approach.

I hope you continue to ignore those who criticize, they are not worth you time and are clearly jealous.

Keep up the great trading and keep posting your thoughts they are appreciated.
  • #165
  • Feb 23, 2014 9:17am Feb 23, 2014 9:17am
Quoting Vikyng
{quote} Hi Capelli I can't understand why some people are so bitter about somebody who is actually succeeding in their trading. Having looked trough a few of your trades it is clear that the results are down to good trading and a what appears to be a systematic approach. I hope you continue to ignore those who criticize, they are not worth you time and are clearly jealous. Keep up the great trading and keep posting your thoughts they are appreciated.
Thank you Vikyng and I will continue posting.
  • #166
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:09pm Feb 23, 2014 3:09pm
This week should be calmer the the previous one. We have less high impact news that are coming, but some of them will be very important. Among them will be the GDP number so both Canada and US. If the canadian GDP numbers were to be bad, the downward trend that the CAD is on right now will accelerate.

So for this week I will be looking forward for more CAD weakness. The GDP number will be released on Friday but losses on the CAD part should be constant throughout the week. I will also be looking forward for weakness in the Yen. The increase in the bond buying program will keep the Yen on the loosing side for the coming weeks. On the long side, AUD and GBP will kept under constant watch to be longed.

USD/CAD could reach my 1.12 target this week. GBP/CAD has already reach it high but could be a good pair to long still :
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  • #167
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:36pm Feb 23, 2014 4:36pm
Im skeptical about shorting the CHF, but the CAD and the JPY are good to short for the moment. Im starting the week by buy both AUD/CAD and AUD/JPY ;
If the recent gain in CAD was a pull back, it wont last long :
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  • #168
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:04am Feb 24, 2014 11:04am
My current trades are doing well. The only problem is the CAD strenght. Although my AUD/CAD turned well, the CAD had gained a lot in the past hours. I added a new short to it by going long on EUR/CAD. later on, I might add another long on AUD/CAD. My AUD/JPY trade is doing very well:
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  • #169
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:09am Feb 24, 2014 11:09am
Quoting Capelli
My current trades are doing well. The only problem is the CAD strenght. Although my AUD/CAD turned well, the CAD had gained a lot in the past hours. I added a new short to it by going long on EUR/CAD. later on, I might add another long on AUD/CAD. My AUD/JPY trade is doing very well: {image}
I'm waiting to see if it goes lower to around the 5160 area, I may enter long there
  • #170
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:23am Feb 24, 2014 11:23am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} I'm waiting to see if it goes lower to around the 5160 area, I may enter long there
Nice . I would also consider AUD/CAD aswell as GBP/CAD but need more time to confirm.
  • #171
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:57am Feb 24, 2014 11:57am
enough profits were made in the AUD/JPY trade so I closed it. Now my attention will focus on AUD/CAD and EUR/CAD
  • #172
  • Feb 24, 2014 9:54pm Feb 24, 2014 9:54pm
Right now I feel that GBP/CAD is the best pair to long. Still, I prefer to stay away from that pair for the moment. I have just added a small long on EUR/CAD to complement my first buy. So far the fundamentals havent change.
  • #173
  • Feb 25, 2014 6:02am Feb 25, 2014 6:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=472616


Fluff talk. If the GDP numbers are good tomorrow, the GBP will still gain value, but in the longterm we will have to take these words into consideration.
  • #174
  • Feb 25, 2014 3:47pm Feb 25, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Capelli
This week should be calmer the the previous one. We have less high impact news that are coming, but some of them will be very important. Among them will be the GDP number so both Canada and US. If the canadian GDP numbers were to be bad, the downward trend that the CAD is on right now will accelerate. So for this week I will be looking forward for more CAD weakness. The GDP number will be released on Friday but losses on the CAD part should be constant throughout the week. USD/CAD could reach my 1.12 target this week. GBP/CAD has already reach it...
I think your analysis of CAD is spot on. The GBP data on Friday may be what sends CAD farther down, but I wouldn't be surprised if the USD data/CAD Current Account releases on Thursday determine the rest of the week's trend for USDCAD. At the very least, it would seem that pairs like USDCAD will retest their monthly highs before pulling a longer term reversal. I'm not considering longing CAD until we get at those highs a second time.

Thanks for your consistent efforts! Your posts are always a pleasure to read.
I'm a dog chasing cars.
  • #175
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:59pm Feb 25, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting ElectroGypsy
{quote} I think your analysis of CAD is spot on. The GBP data on Friday may be what sends CAD farther down, but I wouldn't be surprised if the USD data/CAD Current Account releases on Thursday determine the rest of the week's trend for USDCAD. At the very least, it would seem that pairs like USDCAD will retest their monthly highs before pulling a longer term reversal. I'm not considering longing CAD until we get at those highs a second time. Thanks for your consistent efforts! Your posts are always a pleasure to read.
its always nice to hear to someone appreciate what I write. Thank you

So far i see a potential up for GBP if the GDP numbers of tomorrow are good. If they are good, I might close my EUR/CAD position, or some of it, to go long on GBP/CAD.
  • #176
  • Feb 25, 2014 6:12pm Feb 25, 2014 6:12pm
Looks AUD is on the move. The Yuan seems to have a big impact on both AUD and NZD. My CAD short will continue on EUR/CAD, and maybe on GBP/CAD tomorrow.
  • #177
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:43pm Feb 25, 2014 8:43pm
Yes, your CAD analysis has been spot on.

I would though caution against expecting too much into these UK GDP figures. Remember, they are revision figures of the number that came out in January so, unless we see a revision up or down, they are already "baked" into the price. That doesn't mean cable wont go up anyway. We have had two MPC member talking yesterday one actively saying the Pound was as high as they wanted it to go. Today, just prior to the GDP news, we have another MPC member talking so that could have an impact.

For me cable is in a key phase. It has held the 6600 level well after a number of attempts, admittedly helped by poor dollar news, and 6600 is a shallow retracement (only 38.2 fib on its move up from 6257). However, cable has fallen into a 6600-6730 range. We really need to see it break 6730/50 if we are going to retest the 6820 high and then attack the 1.6880 level. On the flip side a break and hold below 6600 and it opens up a retracement back to 6530 and then 6470, which looks a strong level providing previous support and resistance.
  • #178
  • Feb 26, 2014 5:19am Feb 26, 2014 5:19am
Quoting Vikyng
Yes, your CAD analysis has been spot on. I would though caution against expecting too much into these UK GDP figures. Remember, they are revision figures of the number that came out in January so, unless we see a revision up or down, they are already "baked" into the price. That doesn't mean cable wont go up anyway. We have had two MPC member talking yesterday one actively saying the Pound was as high as they wanted it to go. Today, just prior to the GDP news, we have another MPC member talking so that could have an impact. For me cable is in a...
You were right about the GDP, it didnt have any impact at all. But still, the GBP could still gain. Even if the MPC member are trying to lower the pound, their talk wont drastically affect it until they take action. Right now every central bank want their currency lower, only those who took action against it, like Japan, have succeeded.
  • #179
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:20am Feb 27, 2014 10:20am
Im closer to the bear camp wrt. Sterling. The market is getting ahead of itself with discounting MP tightening. Carney was spot on when mentioning that a sustainable rebound in growth is dependent on increased business investment. The eurozone is also their largest trading partner which is experiencing falling inflation, headline and core. Going forward, import prices are also likely to fall because Sterling has already travelled far.

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Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #180
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:46am Feb 27, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Jimbaloo
Im closer to the bear camp wrt. Sterling. The market is getting ahead of itself with discounting MP tightening. Carney was spot on when mentioning that a sustainable rebound in growth is dependent on increased business investment. The eurozone is also their largest trading partner which is experiencing falling inflation, headline and core. Going forward, import prices are also likely to fall because Sterling has already travelled far. {image}

Nice facts you pointed out. I think pretty much everyone agrees the pound is a little bit too high. Personally, I will always try to use the pound as a last resource currenrcy and will be keen to short it as it goes up. As for all the talking about lowering the pound, Carney will have to take decisive actions before we see major trends against the GBP, talk alone wont suffice.

Talking of imports, any serious drop in those numbers could have to market trashing the pound. I will be patiently waiting for that event to happen
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