{quote} ditto still holding 1/3 of initial shorts..will sell (add shorts) again into pullback if it goes to .3735....while asleep..been a long day..hitting the hay cn...
Good luck with your trade
Zane
Zane
- #13,581
- Feb 27, 2014 5:16am Feb 27, 2014 5:16am
Good luck with your trade
Zane
- #13,584
- Feb 28, 2014 1:08am Feb 28, 2014 1:08am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
Hunting High and Low
- #13,585
- Feb 28, 2014 2:11am Feb 28, 2014 2:11am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
Hi DP,
yep, right.
See picture for actual analysis. I am in a bad hurry now. Wrote a lengthy text a few minutes ago, but lost it due to a fault in FF (I think)
So here is the picture:
Question is: is the NBZ around 3718-3730 strong enough to have meaningful resistance now? And when we break this, where is the next meaningful NBZ above that level? You answered that already. But also wathch the 3755 distribution area to watch for signs of weakness
yep, right.
See picture for actual analysis. I am in a bad hurry now. Wrote a lengthy text a few minutes ago, but lost it due to a fault in FF (I think)
So here is the picture:
Question is: is the NBZ around 3718-3730 strong enough to have meaningful resistance now? And when we break this, where is the next meaningful NBZ above that level? You answered that already. But also wathch the 3755 distribution area to watch for signs of weakness
- #13,586
- Edited 5:00am Feb 28, 2014 2:33am | Edited 5:00am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
Hunting High and Low
- #13,588
- Feb 28, 2014 10:19am Feb 28, 2014 10:19am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
Loonie:
Save the date
Daily
note: timing only
Save the date
Daily
note: timing only
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #13,592
- Feb 28, 2014 5:17pm Feb 28, 2014 5:17pm
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #13,593
- Mar 1, 2014 2:42am Mar 1, 2014 2:42am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
{quote} sorry for late answering well, all the NBZ's were taken out easily, even the mentioned distribution zone around 3750 did not offer any kind of resistance. As I said: look for weakness there, but there was not the slightest weakness visible. Price crashed right into the NBZ localized above 3810 and so far is rejected. Price is now heavily on the far right tail of the distribution on various profiles. So chnaces build up for a mean reverting or partial reverting. On the way down, price may step its feet into the long NBZ from 3785 to 3765....
Thank you for your mail. I'll answer you a little bit later.
As to your endeavors, I see that we are going into the SD 3 - SD 4 zone (it is confirmed by YOUR MP and MY VWAP tehniques
).It is very probable that we shall go higher (as 3824 (H4) will has already been broken out on the forthcoming Monday, I think) and it will be up to 3875-3880 at least, just going by inertia. However technically the price might go even higher - up to 3950.
From the other hand I see a gap (or a hidden gap, if you like) at prices of 3730 - 3750, so the price might reverse and close it.
The said can bring us to the process of ownership transferring right on Monday (a doji could be formed then).
Best, D.P.
Hunting High and Low
- #13,594
- Mar 1, 2014 3:09am Mar 1, 2014 3:09am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Hi, Infinitus, Thank you for your mail. I'll answer you a little bit later. As to your endeavors, I see that we are going into the SD 3 - SD 4 zone (it is confirmed by YOUR MP and MY VWAP tehniques
Hi D.P.,
thanks for analysis.
regarding the Gap(s)
On Dukascopy I can only find some very small micro gaps on the 1 second chart. They are max. 0.5 pip when at all.
Do not know if that is meaningful enough
But this sudden jump has caused severe NBZ.
Normally, one looks at how price moves away from a NBZ. Since we had a NBZ around 3720-3730 area, the move from there was very strong.
strongest = gap
strong = long candles
weak = many small candles
Best bears can hope for, is, that this move up is a fake. If so, price should implode soon.
My impression is, that when we do not turn between here and 3855 (Murrey Math level), we might see prices fairly higher, maybe even a test of the 1.4x
- #13,598
- Mar 1, 2014 3:59am Mar 1, 2014 3:59am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
Hunting High and Low
- #13,599
- Edited 2:39am Mar 2, 2014 2:18am | Edited 2:39am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
Russia sends m forces into Ukraine, gold long next week? I just hope NATO stays out of this becouse i would preffer to do more trading rather than finding best area for bunker.
The Coup De' Tat in Crimea seems to have been executed (mostly) by Crimean intelligence services and military police (who are loyal to Russia). with some support from the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as well as the 76th Shock Troops division. Russian parliament rubber stamped the action post-fact, and now, the jaw boning will start from the international community.
Interesting to note is that a basing agreement (between Russia and Ukraine) for the Black Sea Fleet was coming up for renewal in 2017, this is a naval presence Russia has maintained since the 1700's, and has been very significant for Russia in the last few centuries. A large portion of the fleets naval assets are in Crimea, which makes makes the control of this peninsula of critical geo-strategic importance. A cessation of this territory (back to Russia) seems to be whats at play here (in my limited understanding)...
Ukraine's recent sympathies with the western allies and EU/NATO would make it harder for the basing agreement to be renewed on favorable terms to Russia... and certainly I dont think Putin wants to start a larger confrontation with said allies (not yet anyway)... he got what he came for... for now...
Therefore regarding gold, I think that (any spikes during the Asian session on monday notwithstanding), play is to the short side... the weekly chart seems to have put in a clear reversal top with a long tail (rejection)... in addition to a satisfaction of the breakout price objective and a key fib retracement
sell the news, so they say...
just my 2 cents
Gold
Weekly
I have been tracking a test of a key support line for Gold on my thread; the line was broken, tested, and held on Friday... if interested you can check it out here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post7311631
additionally, we are within a turn window for gold on a weekly basis, shown here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post7269229
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- #13,600
- Mar 2, 2014 2:42am Mar 2, 2014 2:42am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Its a very interesting development, although I think that the move has already been made... We may call Putin a lot of things, depending on our orientation/loyalties, but stupid would not be one of them... additionally it behooves any analyst to take an objective look at things in order to profit from them... The Coup De' Tat in Crimea seems to have been executed (mostly) by Crimean intelligence services and military police (who are loyal to Russia). with some support from the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as well as the 76th Shock Troops division....
good work
But: to bet against Janpec is always a tough job, I came to conclusion
