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Let's Trade Options

  • #3,041
  • Feb 21, 2014 3:27pm Feb 21, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} we are gonna get a slump in natgas and I think it will be pretty steep; I think $36 is a very tall order, I'd be surprised at anything much north of $30. For now, I wait. I see Cecil Gee is here - I expect he has had a busy week spending all that money he has been making trading options. Bastard....
Hey TF - I'm going to Sell the Call not buy. So I am in total agreement that the 36 strike is a very tall order. If UNG is less than 36 at the end of trading on the 28 Feb, I'll pocket the full premium
  • #3,042
  • Feb 21, 2014 4:05pm Feb 21, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF - I'm going to Sell the Call not buy. So I am in total agreement that the 36 strike is a very tall order. If UNG is less than 36 at the end of trading on the 28 Feb, I'll pocket the full premium
right, that would be an epic jump for a 5-day hold. You might pick up a penny or two on Monday, though - if you only need a $0.05 +/- for the calls you might wait and get that all the way into midweek. Anyway, good luck with it njr & have a great weekend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,043
  • Feb 22, 2014 2:22am Feb 22, 2014 2:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} right, that would be an epic jump for a 5-day hold. You might pick up a penny or two on Monday, though - if you only need a $0.05 +/- for the calls you might wait and get that all the way into midweek. Anyway, good luck with it njr & have a great weekend.
Hey TF - Yes, I'd be more than impressed if the 36 strike (30% jump) was hit by the end of next week. Thanks for the suggestions for holding off a little. I'll keep an eye on it at open on Monday. Cheers and enjoy your weekend. Off to the pistes for me!
  • #3,044
  • Feb 22, 2014 11:24am Feb 22, 2014 11:24am
Quoting njr
{quote} Cheers and enjoy your weekend. Off to the pistes for me!
ah yes, Schnee. I was 10 before I ever saw any. I'll be in the lodge with Shred Betty. Be careful....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,045
  • Edited 5:54pm Feb 22, 2014 5:30pm | Edited 5:54pm
$10-$12 range should happen this year (or better) - 1/15 $10 calls are $0.35, 1/16 $12 calls $0.45

http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2014...tyholnk3030001

SAN shares pay a 7.1% dividend! Trading at $9.00 +/- ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,046
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:58pm Feb 23, 2014 3:58pm
http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/01/16...ting?t=options
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,047
  • Feb 23, 2014 5:45pm Feb 23, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/01/16...ting?t=options
it's a risky business. So do you think the short side of BBY is played out?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,048
  • Feb 23, 2014 6:41pm Feb 23, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} it's a risky business. So do you think the short side of BBY is played out?
Best Buy going the way of Circuit City, The Good Guys, and many other brick&mortar electronics stores. Amazon will own all that retail space, drones will deliver new TV's to your doorstep, etc

love the log charts, $10 looks doable this year...BBY started 2013 around $11...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,049
  • Feb 23, 2014 6:58pm Feb 23, 2014 6:58pm
gonna be a data-lean week, might see alot of last Friday-type action, maybe Ma Yellen can get things moving On Thur...I might sell otm S&P index calls....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stoc...211131101.html

"All told, the U.S. stock market could be roiled again by political turmoil this week as investors monitor unrest in Venezuela and Ukraine. While those countries represent a small portion of the global economy, further deterioration could dent sentiment."

I polled about 15 people at the place I work to see if they knew where Ukraine is (all people over 35 with college degrees) - ---none did! "In Russia" was as close as anyone got....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,050
  • Feb 23, 2014 8:24pm Feb 23, 2014 8:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} it's a risky business. So do you think the short side of BBY is played out?
No idea TF. I just thought it was interesting from both a seller's and buyer's point of view. If I understand the article correctly what they're saying is that the options market priced the probability of a move to 26 at 1.2%. That's interesting, but it depends how you view it.

My usual rule of thumb would be, if IV is still reasonably high after a massive drop like that, maybe sell some OTM puts and calls, because usually, once you get a massive drop on a stock, it doesn't really go anywhere for weeks if not months. But of course it depends on the stock, and on the context. IBM was a gift when it dropped heavily and was sitting just above the 200 week MA. But it's a pricey stock so not one you can get gung ho on.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,051
  • Feb 23, 2014 8:27pm Feb 23, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting The Fool
gonna be a data-lean week, might see alot of last Friday-type action, maybe Ma Yellen can get things moving On Thur...I might sell otm S&P index calls.... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stoc...211131101.html "All told, the U.S. stock market could be roiled again by political turmoil this week as investors monitor unrest in Venezuela and Ukraine. While those countries represent a small portion of the global economy, further deterioration could dent sentiment." I polled about 15 people at the place I work to see if they...
I think half of the US thinks Africa is a country. My geography is pretty crap but even I'm not that bad
To be fair to you though, I had to check where exactly Ukraine was earlier. Hardly anybody knows exactly which countries border which countries, especially in that neck of the woods.


Selling OTM calls, I think, yeah, that could work. I think a drop is coming but it feels a bit early for another one. So one must resort to watching the technicals closely.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,052
  • Feb 23, 2014 11:30pm Feb 23, 2014 11:30pm
ER's out in the coming weeks:

2/24: FSLR, HD; 2/25: TOL; 2/26: BIDU, CHK, TGT, RIG; 2/27: BBY, CRM, MBT; 3/3: MBI; 3/6: COST; 3/13: KKD; 3/17: KBH; 3/18: ADBE; 3/20: ORCL
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,053
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:24am Feb 24, 2014 1:24am
Quoting The Fool
gonna be a data-lean week, might see alot of last Friday-type action, maybe Ma Yellen can get things moving On Thur...I might sell otm S&P index calls.... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stoc...211131101.html "All told, the U.S. stock market could be roiled again by political turmoil this week as investors monitor unrest in Venezuela and Ukraine. While those countries represent a small portion of the global economy, further deterioration could dent sentiment." I polled about 15 people at the place I work to see if they...
Hey TF,

Yup, Ma Yellen is going to be a driver for the market this week. There is also a lot of media at the moment regarding the 1850 resistance level on the S&P. It seems that a lot of people are expecting it to reach this level and then where it goes after this appears to be a divided opinion. Some of the 'experts' say it is primed for a 10-15% pullback and others seem to suggest this will be a stepping stone to 1900. I am waiting for 1850 to be reached and then I will look at the price of the 1910 Calls and probably sell the Mar 28 contracts.
  • #3,054
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:28am Feb 24, 2014 1:28am
Zero Hedge's view of the importance of Ukraine....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...lained-one-map
  • #3,055
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:37am Feb 24, 2014 1:37am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, Yup, Ma Yellen is going to be a driver for the market this week. There is also a lot of media at the moment regarding the 1850 resistance level on the S&P. It seems that a lot of people are expecting it to reach this level and then where it goes after this appears to be a divided opinion. Some of the 'experts' say it is primed for a 10-15% pullback and others seem to suggest this will be a stepping stone to 1900. I am waiting for 1850 to be reached and then I will look at the price of the 1910 Calls and probably sell the Mar 28 contracts....
Another 'expert' and the 1850 level....

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000248003&play=1
  • #3,056
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:51am Feb 24, 2014 1:51am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF, Yup, Ma Yellen is going to be a driver for the market this week. There is also a lot of media at the moment regarding the 1850 resistance level on the S&P. It seems that a lot of people are expecting it to reach this level and then where it goes after this appears to be a divided opinion. Some of the 'experts' say it is primed for a 10-15% pullback and others seem to suggest this will be a stepping stone to 1900. I am waiting for 1850 to be reached and then I will look at the price of the 1910 Calls and probably sell the Mar 28 contracts....
Well we had a nice pullback when the tapirs finally snorted loud enough but you see how long that lasted. 10-15% pullback from here is gonna be a tall order for the tapirs to pull off again. The little Fed who cried, "Tapir!" more likely now to be roundly ignored, unless there be some more macro influences. re: Ukraine, they could be grinding Pussy Riot into sausage and force feeding schoolchildren with it and most US citizens would be like, "U-who?" Anyway, that's what they get for being gay.

Right: since Putin's Russia is anti-gay, anyone who opposes him must be gay. This plays well in the fundamentalist Christian red spaces of the US, where Putin or even Hitler could easily get elected President since neither are "Obama" nor "gay".
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,057
  • Feb 24, 2014 5:59am Feb 24, 2014 5:59am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF - Yes, I'd be more than impressed if the 36 strike (30% jump) was hit by the end of next week. Thanks for the suggestions for holding off a little. I'll keep an eye on it at open on Monday. Cheers and enjoy your weekend. Off to the pistes for me!
I expect to see a nice spike at open for UNG....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...this-week.html

Currently up 3.61% (28.7) in PM trade - wow!
  • #3,058
  • Feb 24, 2014 9:20am Feb 24, 2014 9:20am
new trade for this week will be a long call on AIG, not hoping for a big run as the 50 day is above the price but if it can double the option price it may be a good start to the week.

so long $50 call for 28 feb exp at 18c or $18 per contract. AIG is trading at $49.48

American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
-NYSE
49.48 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.50(1.03%) 15:20 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

AIG Feb 2014 50.000 call (AIG140228C00050000)
-OPR
0.18 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.01(5.88%) 14:57
  • #3,059
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:46am Feb 24, 2014 10:46am
Quoting njr
{quote} I expect to see a nice spike at open for UNG.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...this-week.html Currently up 3.61% (28.7) in PM trade - wow!

My position:

SOLD UNG Feb28'14 36 CALL @AMEX @ 0.06

Unfortunately this is a partial fill and the remainder of the order is still pending!
  • #3,060
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:55am Feb 24, 2014 10:55am
Quoting The Fool
ER's out in the coming weeks: 2/24: FSLR, HD; 2/25: TOL; 2/26: BIDU, CHK, TGT, RIG; 2/27: BBY, CRM, MBT; 3/3: MBI; 3/6: COST; 3/13: KKD; 3/17: KBH; 3/18: ADBE; 3/20: ORCL

Hey TF - Some other potential earnings to look at:

Tuesday
Macy's, Boston Beer, Chicago Bridge, Dreamworks Animation, Solar Capital, Sanderson Farms, Sempra Energy,American Tower, Bank of Montreal, Domino's Pizza, Expeditors International, Weatherford International

Wednesday
Target, J.C. Penney, TJX, Abercrombie and Fitch, Cablevision, Chesapeake Energy, Dollar Tree, Eaton Vance, Joy Global, Embraer, Caesar's Entertainment, Noodles and Co., Newfield Exploration, Royal Bank of Canada, Continental Resources, Vale, L Brands

Thursday
Gap, Best Buy, Kohl's, United Health Services, Chico's FAS,Monster Beverage, Decker's Outdoor, Luxottica Group, Mylan Labs, Ocwen,Wendy's, Rowan Cos, Leap Wireless, Fortress Investment, Mentor Graphics, KBR, Telefonica, Windstream, MBIA, Salesforce.com, Ross Stores, Sotheby's, Southwestern Energy, Sprouts Farmers Market

Friday
Liberty Media, Iron Mountain, 3-D Systems, NRG Energy, Seadrill

I'm going to sift through these and see what opportunities are out there......
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