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  • #141
  • Feb 17, 2014 5:50pm Feb 17, 2014 5:50pm
Quoting Capelli
I havent decided what to day with my ERU/USD position, but I closed my shorts on GBP/USD and GBP/CAD.
I have decided to replace my EUR/USD trade by NZD/USD. There are too much uncertainty as to what will be the German Zew Survery tomorrow so I prefer to switch to another pair.
  • #142
  • Feb 17, 2014 5:52pm Feb 17, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} I have decided to replace my EUR/USD trade by NZD/USD. There are too much uncertainty as to what will be the German Zew Survery tomorrow so I prefer to switch to another pair.
Theres an RBA anouncement for AUD in just over 30 minutes, often this impacts NZD pairs too, just a heads up
  • #143
  • Feb 17, 2014 6:13pm Feb 17, 2014 6:13pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Theres an RBA anouncement for AUD in just over 30 minutes, often this impacts NZD pairs too, just a heads up
Thank you, I was waiting for that also, but I probably wont trade it. What Im really worry about right now is the Monetay policy in japan and the Zew Survey. If you are going to trade, be aware of those two events
  • #144
  • Feb 17, 2014 6:21pm Feb 17, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} Thank you, I was waiting for that also, but I probably wont trade it. What Im really worry about right now is the Monetay policy in japan and the Zew Survey. If you are going to trade, be aware of those two events
Aye, I had a gbpchf long open but just closed that for a profit, not risking having any open positions overnight with the releases.
  • #145
  • Feb 17, 2014 9:07pm Feb 17, 2014 9:07pm
RBA has no intention of lowering the interest Rate. That should hold the AUD for a couple of weeks.
  • #146
  • Feb 18, 2014 5:15am Feb 18, 2014 5:15am
Can you explain reasons behind tour nzd short?
  • #147
  • Feb 18, 2014 6:06am Feb 18, 2014 6:06am
Quoting ttteee
Can you explain reasons behind tour nzd short?
It was just to replace the EUR/USD trade. Nzd was a little bit strong and USD too weak.

I just closed that trade with small but good profits
  • #148
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:13am Feb 19, 2014 11:13am
Stong trend on going on agaisnt the CAD. We had a very bad wholesale sales number. I would say that there are now more chance that the BoC could react or talk the CAd down. I added to know trade, one long on USD/CAD and the other long on NZD/CAD :
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  • #149
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:23am Feb 19, 2014 11:23am
Quoting Capelli
Stong trend on going on agaisnt the CAD. We had a very bad wholesale sales number. I would say that there are now more chance that the BoC could react or talk the CAd down. I added to know trade, one long on USD/CAD and the other long on NZD/CAD : {image} {image}
There seems to be a consensus that the USD/CAD is heading toward 1.20. I wont aim that high, but in the longterm I will remember and take that level in consideration. I might also add CAD/CHF since the CHF is often a neutral currency
  • #150
  • Feb 20, 2014 2:28pm Feb 20, 2014 2:28pm
Our position are doing well so far. With bad German manufacturing numbers, the fundamentals are against the Euro. I was interested in entering a short against the Euro but Im not sure against what. The Yen seems to be falling and should continue while I see NZD even higher. CAD has heavy fundamentals against it so it should fall constantly for the coming weeks and month.
  • #151
  • Feb 20, 2014 11:04pm Feb 20, 2014 11:04pm
Closed 2 position out of 3. Im not a longterm trader and dont like to hold a winning position open, but the USD/CAD has a good potential and could go much more higher. 1.12 is attainable:
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  • #152
  • Feb 21, 2014 12:19am Feb 21, 2014 12:19am
Quoting Capelli
Closed 2 position out of 3. Im not a longterm trader and dont like to hold a winning position open, but the USD/CAD has a good potential and could go much more higher. 1.12 is attainable: {image}
There seems to be a pattern of trend exhaustion..... so im out. That was a good enough trade. I might enter again next week and aim for that 1.12
  • #153
  • Edited 7:14am Feb 21, 2014 6:53am | Edited 7:14am
Even with bad data coming from the UK, the pound is gaining this morning. I would expect it to reach its last week high for pairs like GBP/AUD
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  • #154
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:38pm Feb 21, 2014 5:38pm
Can you tell us more about the martingale strategy you're using? How do you decide when to add to positions and by how much?
  • #155
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:04pm Feb 21, 2014 8:04pm
Quoting genie
Can you tell us more about the martingale strategy you're using? How do you decide when to add to positions and by how much?
Its a swing trading system. Unlike martingale systems, I use different charts and keep my leverage low. I aim for small profits on a consistent basis.
  • #156
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:52pm Feb 21, 2014 8:52pm
Aussie set to move down again possible 0.6000 target according to chief economist at Deutsche Bank Australia.


GOLD is known as the correlator to AUD however this completely contradicts each other as we have seen GOLD rally and make fresh highs at 1330. This could be due to the USD weakness we have been witnessing thus far.
AUDUSD has been holding under .9100 in its downtrend still very present on the daily while smaller time-frames are starting to compress to prepare for the next major move.


-reference
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-fall-20-.html
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #157
  • Feb 21, 2014 11:44pm Feb 21, 2014 11:44pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} Its a swing trading system. Unlike martingale systems, I use different charts and keep my leverage low. I aim for small profits on a consistent basis.
That sounds like you are saying you dont use martingale, but that is not the case by studying your past trades. If a trade goes against you, you add more positions, sometimes doubling in size, other times tripling etc. I've studied all your past trades and sometimes you were lucky to get out on a retracement after tripling your initial size. As we all know, there is no bulletproof way you making money in the markets. From the looks of it, it seems like what you're doing is very risky (as are all martingale systems) despite whatever element you choose to combine it with (e.g. discretionary, technical, fundamental, mechanical) etc. In the end, there is only one outcome: outsized losses in comparison to your small wins. 1 or 2 actual losses due to the market not retracing enough for you to get out at a small win/breakeven will surely wipe out most of your profits. Any experienced trader can tell you that is a very big possibility. That's definitely not the way I'd like to trade, but everyone is different. If everything I have said about the way you trade is wrong, then I will stand corrected, and look to further my knowledge and will be happy to learn from you. Good luck mate
  • #158
  • Edited 1:24am Feb 22, 2014 1:03am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting genie
{quote} That sounds like you are saying you dont use martingale, but that is not the case by studying your past trades. If a trade goes against you, you add more positions, sometimes doubling in size, other times tripling etc. I've studied all your past trades and sometimes you were lucky to get out on a retracement after tripling your initial size. As we all know, there is no bulletproof way you making money in the markets. From the looks of it, it seems like what you're doing is very risky (as are all martingale systems) despite whatever element...
What you see about my system is only the tip of the iceberg.



Since this is not the "Trading System" section, I usually dont reveal much about my strategy. Its not the first time someone compare my system with another one or a group of people. Let me tell you a thing, THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NOT ELEMENT OF CHANCE IN IT. I do find insulting to be compare wit the group of traders who simply double their bet as a trade go against them, like TAUTRADER for example who truly uses a martingale system ( at a moment he was using a leverage of more than 300:1) and blew several accounts. My leverage never went over 25:1. Look at my max drawdown. Is 6% is what you usually see in a martingale system, or more something like 50 to 99% ??




In one sens I cant blame for depicting my system as a grid system, I dont give a lot of informations about my strategy and I still receave PM of people asking me why do I chose specific pairs to perform a trade. I never give those individual an answer.... this is my system and I have no intention of revealing all of it. All im here for is to share some thought about the Fundies and Technicals, but the Hardcore of my system will never be revealed. If you had all the papers I have infront of me before doing any decision you would understand. But Im sure you have your own system and own way of thinking.
  • #159
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:21am Feb 22, 2014 1:21am
Quoting Rtm
Aussie set to move down again possible 0.6000 target according to chief economist at Deutsche Bank Australia. GOLD is known as the correlator to AUD however this completely contradicts each other as we have seen GOLD rally and make fresh highs at 1330. This could be due to the USD weakness we have been witnessing thus far. AUDUSD has been holding under .9100 in its downtrend still very present on the daily while smaller time-frames are starting to compress to prepare for the next major move. -reference http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-fall-20-.html...
Good call here. One thing tho, Im completely lost for Gold. Is the Taper the main reason this thing is going up or its because China is buying this metal like crazy??
  • #160
  • Feb 22, 2014 2:31am Feb 22, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} What you see about my system is only the tip of the iceberg. Since this is not the "Trading System" section, I usually dont reveal much about my strategy. Its not the first time someone compare my system with another one or a group of people. Let me tell you a thing, THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NOT ELEMENT OF CHANCE IN IT. I do find insulting to be compare wit the group of traders who simply double their bet as a trade go against them, like TAUTRADER for example who truly uses a martingale system ( at a moment he was using a leverage of more than...
Trading is about chance, if you say there is absolutely no chance in it then you don't know how the markets really work. The reason why your equity curve slopes the right way right now is because of a lucky streak. I see absolutely no benefit in putting on so much risk. No matter how you put it, a martingale is always a martingale system. You increase risk when positions go against you and it seems like there's no limitations on that point. Anyways, like you said its not a trading system thread so I will leave it. Thanks for replying and gl!
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