FX Options Analysis The Edge Pros Use

Forex options markets commentary on Feb 17th 2013 at London open.



At The Money (ATM) forex options implied volatility changes of USD major forex pairs:

- 1 week fx options volatility increased in GBPUSD options,

- 1 month fx options volatility increased in GBPUSD and silver options,

- 3 months fx options volatility increased in GBPUSD and silver options.





Fx options traders were buying forex Out of The Money (OTM) options in the following fx options markets:

- good buying of silver calls with 1 week up to a year options expiry date,

- good selling of gold puts with 1 week up to a year options expiry date,

- light selling of USDJPY puts with 1 month options expiry date,

- light selling of AUDUSD puts with 1 month options expiry date.




Commentary of forex price action in fx options markets:

What have we got in last trading 24 hours?!?

Increase of volatility = buying of options in GBPUSD & silver (XAGUSD) and huge moves in both of this fx spot prices.


Potential fx spot markets trading setups:

Like I wrote on Friday that USD looks like will not go bullish it actually went most bearish of all major currencies.

Also USDJPY went lower so fx options traders went 3 in a row with what they were positioning themselves for on Friday, Feb 14th 2014.

Today is Monday and all good buying and selling of options in last trading days GBPUSD, gold and silver already moved a lot so...


More info: FXoptionsANALYSIS.com

Forex options markets commentary on Mar 24th 2014 at London open.


At The Money (ATM) forex options implied volatility changes of USD major forex pairs:

- 1 week fx options volatility decreased or unchanged in all fx pairs options,

- 1 month fx options volatility decreased or unchanged in all fx pairs options,

- 3 months fx options volatility decreased or unchanged in all fx pairs options.




Fx options traders were buying forex Out of The Money (OTM) options in the following fx options markets:

- light positioning for a higher AUDUSD around 0.9050-0.9080 area by light selling of AUDUSD puts with 1 month up to 6 months options expiry date.



Commentary of forex price action in fx options markets:

No big news released today and with options volatility decreasing we'll probably experience today mainly range trading.

Be alerted on today's USDJPY options expiry at 10am NY time with $3 billion options expiring between strike prices from 103.00 to 103.20 which could move current USDJPY spot price at 102.52 towards this price.


Read more: FXoptionsANALYSIS.com

Today fx ‪‎options‬ volatility not changed much so mostly no big moves up or down are expected in ‪‎forex‬ spot markets.

In ‪AUDUSD‬ 0.9150 should for now hold as resistance while in ‪USDJPY‬ 102.00 should hold as support.

Today over $4 billion USDJPY options expire between 102.00 to 102.40 at 10am NY time so at least until that time we can assume USDJPY forex spot price will stay in this area.

Fx options expiries today at 10am NY time with at least 1 billion forex options expiry:
- EURUSD 1.3750 (EUR 1.6bln) & 1.3700 (EUR 1bln),
- USDJPY 103.50 (USD 1.3bln).

NFP‬ out with 192k vs expected 200k and ‪Nikkei‬ & ‪‎SP500‬ traders or HFT algos continue their greed...cough, cough...RISK ON momentum.

If you read my Facebook page post or Twitter tweet from 5h ago you would already know that RISK ON trading was play of ‎forex‬ options traders for today's NFP.

Original info at https://twitter.com/FxOptionsAnalys

FX Options Commentary Apr 10

FOMC Minutes yesterday went just as fx options traders expected and reported in yesterday’s daily fx options analysis – USD kept bearish momentum pushing both EURUSD and GBPUSD higher.


Looks like decreasing forex options volatility of which I was reporting in my daily fx options analysis in past few days was also predicting no crashes to occur soon with most major currencies continuing higher vs USD.


Current fx options implied volatility is not just decreasing but is also lowest in last 7 years so overall things are looking very bearish for USD.

Read more: FX Options Weekly Commentary

Quiet day so far in forex markets but surprisingly some huge fx options expiration at 10am NY cut today.

Over $10 billion USDJPY options expire in 101.50 to 103.00 area and $8 billion in USDCAD at 1.1000

Still so far looks as biggest mover today might be gold if tensions in Ukraine continues.

Forex spot prices are closing in on massive barrier options which are mainly do-not-touch options (DNT).

#GBPUSD barrier option DNT at 1.7000,
#USDJPY barrier option DNT at 101.00,
#EURUSD barrier option DNT at 1.4000,
#AUDUSD barrier option DNT at 0.9400,
#NZDUSD barrier option DNT at 0.8800,
#USDCAD barrier option DNT at 1.0800.

Entire info at: Facebook.com/FXoptionsANALYSIS

Forex options markets commentary on May 12th 2014 at London open.

Last 24 hours of trading brought following currency options trading action in fx options markets.

Let’s start analyzing forex options intraday changes in fx options implied volatility, forex options volume and changes in forex call and put options prices…



At The Money (ATM) forex options implied volatility changes of USD major forex pairs:

- 1 week fx options volatility increased in USDJPY and gold options,

- 1 month fx options volatility increased in EURUSD, GBPUSD and gold options,

- 3 months fx options volatility increased in EURUSD and USDCHF options.



Fx options traders were buying forex Out of The Money (OTM) options in the following fx options markets:


- light positioning for a lower GBPUSD around 1.6920 area by light buying of GBPUSD puts with 1 week options expiry date.



Daily fx options expiries at New York’s 10am cut with at least $1 billion position:

- USDJPY 101.80 (USD 875m),

- EURUSD 1.3805-10 (EUR 828m),

- AUDUSD 0.9350-60 (AUD 800m), 0.9410 (AUD 1.6bln),

- USDCAD 1.0915 (USD 1.2bln).

Barrier option in EURGBP at 0.8150 for now holding with bids (pending buy limit orders) at 0.8155.



Commentary of forex price action in fx options markets:

Today could be a very quiet day regarding news being released and current fx spot prices are also near today’s big options expiries.

AUDUSD will most likely be stuck in this 0.9350-0.9400 range with 0.9400 as a barrier option still in place which could be worthy of small scalping trades if you’re into 10 pips profit trades.

For me as usual I’ll focus on potential trades based on price action in fx markets from Tuesday till Thursday.

Read more: FXoptionsANALYSIS.com

June 9th 2014 fx options expiries at New York’s 10am cut with at least $1 billion position:

- over 2.5 billion EUR expiries between EURUSD 1.3600-1.3650 area.

Last week finished just the way forex options traders were positioning themselves ahead of Non farm payrolls.
On Friday, Jun 6th 2014 in my daily analysis sent to my VIP members I wrote:
“…positioning for a higher AUDUSD around 0.9300 area…”
“…higher probability that NFP data will be as expected…”

Today AUDUSD is currently around 0.9360 (60 pips higher) and NFP came as expected (217k vs expected 218k).


Read more: FXoptionsANALYSIS.com

Forex options markets commentary on Jun 27th 2014 at London open.


At The Money (ATM) forex options implied volatility changes of USD major forex pairs:

- 1 week fx options volatility increased in USDJPY, USDCAD, gold and silver options,

- 1 month fx options volatility increased in USDJPY, AUDUSD, gold and silver options,

- 3 months fx options volatility increased in USDJPY options.



Fx options traders were buying forex Out of The Money (OTM) options in the following fx options markets:


- good positioning for a lower USDJPY around 101.70 area by good buying of USDJPY puts with 1 week and 1 month options expiry date.



Daily fx options expiries at New York’s 10am cut with at least $1 billion position:

- AUDUSD 0.9450 (AUD 1.36bln).



Intramarket forex info:

NZDUSD - barrier option at 0.8800

USDCAD - barrier option at 1.0650



Commentary of forex price action in fx options markets:

Yesterday USDCAD gave a quick 10 pip scalp trade since price initially bounced perfectly at 1.0705 to 1.0715 before another try to break barrier options at 1.0700 finally succeeded.

There are few methods of trading around barrier options and usually upon 1st try to break barrier defenders put many orders 5 to 10 pips ahead to defend it so going with direction of defenders usually work on 1st and 2nd try of attackers to break it.

This is why yesterday I wrote that barrier might break since there was already a try to break it a day before.

Today we see similar thing with NZDUSD barrier at 0.8800 that came within 5 pips of breaking but defenders with their sell orders managed to protect it on this 1st attempt of attackers.

Having such info smart trader would wait for price action confirmation to sell NZDUSD around 0.8790 area which would by now already gave him over 20 pips profit.

Read more: FXoptionsANALYSIS.com

In last reply on Jun 27th I wrote among others on barrier option in NZDUSD at 0.8800 that was successfully defended.


Few nuggets from today's VIP analysis I'll share here are:

1) Today's option expiry in USDJPY at 101.45 worth over $0.7 bln (this could explain why for now price seems to be glued within 10 pips)

2) NZDUSD reported buyers at 0.8730 (using both info for NZDUSD would mean correctly predicted around 60 pips market move).

Read more: FXoptionsANALYSIS.com/blog