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an Aspiring Up and Coming Trader

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 13, 2014 10:23am Feb 15, 2014 8:51pm | Edited Mar 13, 2014 10:23am
This journal is something I've decided to start online for multiple reasons.
1. If anyone sees a flaw in my approach, I can assess it in hopes of approving.
2. Posting it online makes me somewhat more accountable, more disciplined. If I were to objectively read my thread, I'd want to say that "OK, he's not only capable, but he's improving."

I've traded over a year now with an approach taught by Sam Seiden of FXStreet, and other forms of trading Supply and Demand. As of recent, I'm learning Harmonics so that's where I hope to improve greatly, noticing and correctly trading the ratios and patterns. It's an extremely interesting subject.

EUR/USD - Possible Short @ 1.3745
AB=CD pattern forming with the PRZ coinciding with a level of Supply around 1.3750. The AB leg was produced much quicker than the CD leg. I'll be sure to note that if this fails. The ADR at the top of the chart suggests that it's within range for a Monday touch.

EDIT: Over the course of this thread, you will see how I've adapted to becoming a strictly Harmonic trader due to it's thorough explanations, with tons of material and books on the subject. I've seen my trading account grow over 10% in a little over 3 weeks. I provide many examples of all the various patterns here for other harmonic traders.
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Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #2
  • Feb 15, 2014 10:33pm Feb 15, 2014 10:33pm
GBP/USD -

Looking through the Pound and noticed a decent Gartley. I think I would've missed the trade entry by about 15 pips or so but it's great to see the validity of Harmonics.


With the BC retracing to the .618 of the XA leg, I would of expected the CD leg to reach the 1.618, even the 1.27, somewhere near the length of the AB leg. I probably wouldn't of participated in this trade.
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  • #3
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:15am Feb 16, 2014 12:15am
Your next supply zone in the first post's image is already used up. Stick with the basics on S/D, stay away from people like Alfonso who just want your cash. This niche is filled with fraudsters like him.
  • #4
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:14am Feb 16, 2014 1:14am
Quoting Kanzler
Your next supply zone in the first post's image is already used up. Stick with the basics on S/D, stay away from people like Alfonso who just want your cash. This niche is filled with fraudsters like him.
I'd rather not pay for his knowledge but I appreciate what he did in the thread. Yes, the Supply Zone was hit depending on how you draw the zone, price rejected once already. I need to analyze the USD to see if we're reaching some kind of support to help make up for the exhaustion of that supply level.
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #5
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:15am Feb 16, 2014 1:15am
USD -

I use a HotForex Demo account to get a chart of the USD. Not sure if this is best source of the USD but it'll have to work for now. Seems like the sell off isn't over quite yet after that H&S break. The USD has held the 79.80 level since October, being contained in that tight range. If we can reach the support as the Euro completes the AB=CD @ 1.3750 at resistance, that might present a nice opportunity.
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  • #6
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:39pm Feb 16, 2014 9:39pm
I don't plan on taking this trade, with my live account at least, since it's a Sunday night but this caught my eye.

AUD/USD -

The Weekly is at a former Supply/Resistance level after rallying off bounce off a demand level

The Daily is also at a Supply/Resistance. Price Action showed some sell pressure a couple days ago but there was little follow thru as it's back to Yearly highs.

The 4 Hour showed a potential Butterfly pattern but gaped up as the markets open today. I know the high of a Butterfly pattern shouldn't be broken, as this example shows, but I'm curious to see if this will still find some downward momentum with the pattern being invalidated. We are at a Supply/Resistance level on the 4 Hour too.
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  • #7
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:37pm Feb 16, 2014 10:37pm
I will keep an eye on this potential Gartley on the NZD/USD to observe how patterns fail or succeed in real-time. I found this on the Daily so I'll take it down to a 4 Hour for a clearer view of Price Action in hopes of seeing Supply come in here in the near future.
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  • #8
  • Edited 11:22pm Feb 16, 2014 11:10pm | Edited 11:22pm
Dollar Index is at legitimate support, a Dollar Index I found on a website called tradingview.com. When I overlay USD/JPY and USD Index, they move in uni-sync, although there has been a deviation as of early February.
I say that because USD/JPY is at a point where I expect a rally to finish off this Butterfly. I'm still learning these Harmonics, looking for all kinds of pattern in real-time to see how they actually play out.
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  • #9
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:28am Feb 17, 2014 1:28am
If I were to take this USD/JPY long here, and I am tempted to, I'd be betting on the SNP 500 hitting all time highs in the next day or two, and close at those levels. That doesn't sound like a far-fetched idea at all, but those levels has been rejected time and time again, ~1840,1850.
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #10
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:21pm Feb 17, 2014 12:21pm
USD/JPY, USD, and indexes look prime for a push up. Although I am confident, I am in my learning stage so I'm expecting to take a risk of only about 1% if I get filled at 101.65 on the U/J. We're at the C point on the potential Butterfly pattern so if this fails I'll be glad to figure out exactly what went wrong.

If anyone reading this knows where I could find a MT4 service that provides USD, Nikkei 225, Bonds, Yields and such would be appreciated.
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #11
  • Feb 17, 2014 9:04pm Feb 17, 2014 9:04pm
I haven't gotten filled on my USD/JPY order at 101.65, in which I believed the USD and various indexes would rise on the day. I found an ab=cd within the BC leg of the potential Butterfly the USD/JPY that supported my reasoning for going long at those past levels. It could have been a great trade, even though I'm still a little clueless on how to enter outside of Limit Orders.
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  • #12
  • Feb 17, 2014 9:10pm Feb 17, 2014 9:10pm
Seems I have found an error in my Patterns. The USD/JPY charts aren't Butterflys. You live and learn.
Butterfly's should bounce off .786s to my knowledge. The bounce off .618 has potential for a Gartley, I will keep an eye on this U/J development.
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #13
  • Feb 17, 2014 10:48pm Feb 17, 2014 10:48pm
EUR/USD is approaching a PRZ with 4 values ranging from .3738-.3767, a zone that is not too wide at all. Easily the best example for me to see how these patterns play out. In terms of trading this, I wouldn't mind missing this trade and placing a Limit Order at the top of the range. Doing so would limit my loss which is acceptable for my first Harmonic trade.

Sell Limit placed at .3757
Stop at .3787
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  • #14
  • Edited 12:46am Feb 18, 2014 12:28am | Edited 12:46am
I had some missteps in my pattern recognition earlier. There was actually a devolving Gartley from January 28th's high and a devolving Butterfly from January 31st's high. Which one will take priority and play out is up for grabs. Nonetheless, U/J rallied as expected. Over 110 pips. I'm not disappointed I missed out, but excited to have been able to forecast it. Let's see how this prediction goes.
I'm expecting a drop soon, granted we don't blow through the levels I have marked out. Their labeled with the pink lines on the left hand side. It's a fairly large zone, with the most important value (Gartley's .786, Butterfly's 1.27) being at the extremities. Zone ranges from 102.857-103.542. I'm eyeing a short around 103.35.

Limit Order 103.35
Stop Loss 103.70

Waiting to see if either of my trades, E/U or U/J, will get filled overnight.
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  • #15
  • Feb 18, 2014 1:55pm Feb 18, 2014 1:55pm
Filled on the EUR/USD short I mentioned yesterday. Tomorrows FOMC meeting should bring a substantial amount of volatility. I'm hoping this catches some traction to the downside, giving me extra padding for tomorrows event release.
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  • #16
  • Feb 18, 2014 7:18pm Feb 18, 2014 7:18pm
Updating my EUR/USD short.
Bears are present as we approach Harmonic Levels but they aren't overpowering the Bulls, but signs are weakness are apparent.
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  • #17
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:22am Feb 19, 2014 1:22am
London Session is opening soon and we have seen yesterdays high rejected a couple times, all happening at the edge of the PZR indicated by the top pink line (AB=CD). I will update again in the morning to see where the EUR/USD has positioned itself before the FOMC meeting. As of right now, I'm glad to see weakness appearing in this market.
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  • #18
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:35am Feb 19, 2014 1:35am
Quoting UpComerFX
I will keep an eye on this potential Gartley on the NZD/USD to observe how patterns fail or succeed in real-time. I found this on the Daily so I'll take it down to a 4 Hour for a clearer view of Price Action in hopes of seeing Supply come in here in the near future. {image}

Update on the NZD/USD potential Gartley.
At the time I found it, we were at a Daily Supply level and the reversal zone of point C. I decided to pass on this trade because I felt I was not ready to take aggressive buys/sells in Harmonic trading quite yet. Soon I will have the confidence in the strategy to do so.

We have rejected the level since then, falling over 80 pips at one point. We haven't reached point D yet, the infamous PRZ, where I intend to buy if conditions are met.
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  • #19
  • Feb 19, 2014 4:28pm Feb 19, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting UpComerFX
London Session is opening soon and we have seen yesterdays high rejected a couple times, all happening at the edge of the PZR indicated by the top pink line (AB=CD). I will update again in the morning to see where the EUR/USD has positioned itself before the FOMC meeting. As of right now, I'm glad to see weakness appearing in this market. {image}
The tide seems to be turning. The FOMC minutes produced volatility late in NY session, we're not out of the PRZ and edging lower. I'm still managing the trade but I want to make sure this is the near term high before I set up my take profit target, which is dictated by the swing high.

I'll keep updating.
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  • #20
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:41pm Feb 19, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting UpComerFX
I don't plan on taking this trade, with my live account at least, since it's a Sunday night but this caught my eye. AUD/USD - The Weekly is at a former Supply/Resistance level after rallying off bounce off a demand level The Daily is also at a Supply/Resistance. Price Action showed some sell pressure a couple days ago but there was little follow thru as it's back to Yearly highs. The 4 Hour showed a potential Butterfly pattern but gaped up as the markets open today. I know the high of a Butterfly pattern shouldn't be broken, as this example shows,...
Update.

AUS/USD has broken down. I somewhat expected this to happen but wasn't sure due to the Harmonic Pattern being violated. I don't intend to take the trade in PRZ, but if a another patterns forms within the current invalidated one, I will reconsider.
Greatness exists in all of us.
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