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  • #2,941
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:38pm Feb 13, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yah mon I thought the YellenFed would get us juiced again today and she did, just need follow through tomorrow. EEM can do $0.40-$0.50 no problem and your $0.05 could go $0.25+ easy. I almost killed my EEM calls at BE today, still hangin in....
China CPI out in a few hours, if that's a happy green number EEM should pop 2% Friday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,942
  • Edited 3:36am Feb 14, 2014 3:20am | Edited 3:36am
I will be looking to take a trade on AAPL today for some short term explosive volatility moves over a ten day period. APPL closing price was $544 yesterday so I will be looking to to set a long strangle $15 or $20 out each way, this will make it $565 and $525 give or take, In taking this the option prices can not exceed $2.20 for each leg lower the better.

From last nights close I have $565 call at $2,00 and the $525 at $2.10 making the total at $4.10 or $410 per long strangle position. Prices are below.
Hope to get them a little cheaper if AAPL opens around the same price

AAPL Feb 2014 565.000 call (AAPL140228C00565000)

-OPR

2.00 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.73(57.48%) 13 Feb 20:59


AAPL Feb 2014 525.000 put (AAPL140228P00525000)

-OPR

2.10 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 2.80(57.14%) 13 Feb 20:59
EDIT; forgot to mention its for FEB 28 EXPIRATION
  • #2,943
  • Edited 8:23am Feb 14, 2014 8:08am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} China CPI out in a few hours, if that's a happy green number EEM should pop 2% Friday...
well we can dream. premarket EEM up 0.6%, will likely close 2/22 $39.50 calls today for some profit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,944
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:05am Feb 14, 2014 11:05am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Purchased some long contracts on LVS $79 CALL for 36c or $36 per contract. Looking for further movement to the top lvs underly price is $77.80 Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) -NYSE 77.80 {image} 1.76(2.31%) 4:52PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price LVS Feb 2014 79.000 call (LVS140214C00079000) -OPR 0.36 {image} 0.20(125.00%) 16:27
Finally closed out at 68c or $68 per contract, slightly profitable as I paid 36c but too much hard work.
  • #2,945
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:09am Feb 14, 2014 11:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
T. Fool I have joined you now in the long EEM $39.50 calls for tomorrows expiration for 5c or $5 per contract. EEM is trading at $39.14 as of now, should EEM close beneath $39 at the close of today then this trade will not work iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) -NYSEArca 39.15 {image} 0.01(0.04%) 20:33 - Nasdaq Real Time Price EEM Feb 2014 39.500 call (EEM140214C00039500) -OPR 0.05 {image} 0.09(64.29%) 20:07
closed out at 25c or $25 per contract, had bought for 5c or $5 per contract, this one was much better in %

EEM Feb 2014 39.500 call (EEM140214C00039500)

-OPR

0.25 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.20(400.00%) 16:41
  • #2,946
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:12am Feb 14, 2014 11:12am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Risky trade I taken on citi with the 200 and 50 day just above, I took a long $50.50 call for 17c or $17 per contract. I'm hoping for further upwards movement ib the Indexes that may move the stock past those MA. price of underly as it stands is $50.10 Citigroup Inc. (C) -NYSE 50.10 {image} 0.44(0.89%) 18:27 - Nasdaq Real Time Price C Feb 2014 50.500 call (C140214C00050500) -OPR 0.17 {image} 0.02(13.33%) 18:00
The above trade will expire worthless on me as citi is struggling to get above $50.00, so this will be a 17c or $17 per contract loss for me
  • #2,947
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:20am Feb 14, 2014 11:20am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I will be looking to take a trade on AAPL today for some short term explosive volatility moves over a ten day period. APPL closing price was $544 yesterday so I will be looking to to set a long strangle $15 or $20 out each way, this will make it $565 and $525 give or take, In taking this the option prices can not exceed $2.20 for each leg lower the better. From last nights close I have $565 call at $2,00 and the $525 at $2.10 making the total at $4.10 or $410 per long strangle position. Prices are below. Hope to get them a little cheaper if AAPL...
still not made the above trade, will wait until next week
  • #2,948
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:29am Feb 14, 2014 11:29am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} closed out at 25c or $25 per contract, had bought for 5c or $5 per contract, this one was much better in % EEM Feb 2014 39.500 call (EEM140214C00039500) -OPR 0.25 {image} 0.20(400.00%) 16:41
Good 1.

I am up on 2/22 $39.50 calls a little over 2x, looking for another leg up. $40 might be a stretch....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,949
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:55pm Feb 14, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey The Fool, Yeah, I recall the same. She had about 100k with Merrill and took her money out to start trading options. She wasn't that successful in the beginning as she was trading stock options and she said she was "burnt" by earnings a few times (Boy Wonder's very valid points). She moved to indexes and started doing naked short strangles making 50% profit in the 1st year. After this impressive return, she apparently had friends & family & other investors provide her with capital to the tune of about 700k. She then took the 700k and...
re Karen the SuperTrader. I watched the new tastytrade vid, which was good. Finally there are some good details about just what she is doing and it is not hard to understand.

Not hard to understand but nevertheless I feel stunned at the skill and cojones apparent. Making 50,000 trades/year, all on SPX, 500 contracts trade size +/-, doing this from a room of 6-7 traders, all on the same platform you or I might use. Just selling naked 2 sigma out puts and 1 sigma out calls, 56 dte and 14 dte respectively, treating put side and call side completely independently, working hard at it day in/day out, constantly milking the theta profit cow, made 27% after expenses in 2013 (which was a very tough year for call selling) - a net of $50mio. (I'm going off memory, don't have my notes, but that's it in a nutshell.)

Do any of you think you could do this?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,950
  • Feb 14, 2014 1:35pm Feb 14, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good 1. I am up on 2/22 $39.50 calls a little over 2x, looking for another leg up. $40 might be a stretch....
got out at $0.60, good enough at 2.4x
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,951
  • Feb 14, 2014 1:58pm Feb 14, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} i am 2/22 $21/$24 on CSCO, AH is dropping, $22.85 close --> $22.17....I am gonna need $21....lookin like a long shot but we'll see....
worst ER strangle I've ever played, likely be a total loss.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,952
  • Feb 14, 2014 2:25pm Feb 14, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} re Karen the SuperTrader. I watched the new tastytrade vid, which was good. Finally there are some good details about just what she is doing and it is not hard to understand. Not hard to understand but nevertheless I feel stunned at the skill and cojones apparent. Making 50,000 trades/year, all on SPX, 500 contracts trade size +/-, doing this from a room of 6-7 traders, all on the same platform you or I might use. Just selling naked 2 sigma out puts and 1 sigma out calls, 56 dte and 14 dte respectively, treating put side and call side completely...
I already do. She made 27% in 2013? I just ran the Portfolio Analyst in IB for the last 30 days and I made (according to Portfolio Analyst) 16.73%. I had a blip y'day/today though (fookin dollar gettin a spankin) so it's probably down to about 14%. But whether I can maintain that is another issue. You know how it is, ups and downs etc. Then again I just ran it for 12 months (02/01/13 to 01/31/14) and I see I made 34.46%. And that was including a shite period when I packed it in (again) before picking it up (again) a few months later. So yea, I think if I was trying for "only" 27% in one year then yes, definitely it is doable. But I'm bored, I'm greedy and I'm running out of time for money to actually mean anything to me. If somebody out there wants to hire me for $$$ I'll make em 27% no sweat.

I think pipple takes a lot of risk and incurs a lot of stress to make probably north of 50%/yr, which is very good but it comes at a cost. He could probably quite easily clear 30% and he'd probably live a few years longer to boot, but I imagine he like me would consider 30% to not be quite good enough.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,953
  • Edited 3:12pm Feb 14, 2014 2:38pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} re Karen the SuperTrader. I watched the new tastytrade vid, which was good. Finally there are some good details about just what she is doing and it is not hard to understand. Not hard to understand but nevertheless I feel stunned at the skill and cojones apparent. Making 50,000 trades/year, all on SPX, 500 contracts trade size +/-, doing this from a room of 6-7 traders, all on the same platform you or I might use. Just selling naked 2 sigma out puts and 1 sigma out calls, 56 dte and 14 dte respectively, treating put side and call side completely...
Hey The Fool,

I watched the most recent and the previous interviews and your exactly right about her approach. It is a fantastic story either way you look at it. The attached URL also shows the follow up to her most recent interview and Tom S goes over more detail of how she started and grew her fortune.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/.../episodes/9311

It would be amazing to achieve the same, however the key issue I see is scale. She started with her own 100k and in the first year turned this into 150k. Hence, the proof of concept worked!!!! She then had friends, family, and other investors provide an additional 550k. She started to make serious money with this 700k and in 3 years grew this into 40 mio with some additional capital input from other investors along the way. So unless you have some serious capital to begin with then it would take some time (using the same approach as Karen) to grow the capital into an amount that could be used to return some serious money!!! I guess most retail traders do not have account sizes of 700k so pooling capital would be one option to try to repeat this story....
  • #2,954
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:09pm Feb 14, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} re Karen the SuperTrader. I watched the new tastytrade vid, which was good. Finally there are some good details about just what she is doing and it is not hard to understand. Not hard to understand but nevertheless I feel stunned at the skill and cojones apparent. Making 50,000 trades/year, all on SPX, 500 contracts trade size +/-, doing this from a room of 6-7 traders, all on the same platform you or I might use. Just selling naked 2 sigma out puts and 1 sigma out calls, 56 dte and 14 dte respectively, treating put side and call side completely...
she must of held back some very important stuff, can't see her revealing everything so to anyone whose gonna go for it just watch your pennies and don't let them take your shirt, practice over and over again
  • #2,955
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:13pm Feb 14, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} got out at $0.60, good enough at 2.4x
Good one mate now If you can make one of those per week and you get good at it you will always stay ahead, trick is don't change your $ amount you use to trade, trade the same amount win or lose and you will be far ahead of the game
  • #2,956
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:40pm Feb 14, 2014 3:40pm
I won't take anything away from you BW, and any kind of positive return proves you are a good trader, in my books.

But can you do 30%/annum return on a multimillion$ account, on a $100mio+ AUM? I wish you luck in finding out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,957
  • Edited 4:01pm Feb 14, 2014 3:48pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey The Fool, I watched the most recent and the previous interviews and your exactly right about her approach. It is a fantastic story either way you look at it. The attached URL also shows the follow up to her most recent interview and Tom S goes over more detail of how she started and grew her fortune. https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/.../episodes/9311 It would be amazing to achieve the same, however the key issue I see is scale. ....
I dunno, I think lots of us (especially those of us getting on in years) could start in the same ballpark as she did, low range 6-figures. And I know she had to climb a learning curve, like we all do - she says she started out selling covered calls.

But then she calls up the allegory of the Tortoise and the Hare....and she, of course, is the Tortoise. Just filling up the milk bucket from the cash cow one squirt at a time. 50,000+ trades per year in a room of 6-7 traders is >30 per day per trader. Day in, day out. With trade sizes in the 100's of contracts. She doesn't do SPY because she can't count on the volume. Just SPX. I'd like to sit in on a typical day.

It does sound like work, though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,958
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:57pm Feb 14, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Good one mate now If you can make one of those per week and you get good at it you will always stay ahead, trick is don't change your $ amount you use to trade, trade the same amount win or lose and you will be far ahead of the game
I had a good week, hope you did, too, Bud. That CTL strangle I did, counting the ratios and the losing leg, went 5.4x net with good size, all other winners just gravy, loss on CSCO strangle is small.....


...remember Monday is President's day - US exchanges will be closed. Have a great weekend ya'll.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,959
  • Feb 14, 2014 6:22pm Feb 14, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting The Fool
I won't take anything away from you BW, and any kind of positive return proves you are a good trader, in my books. But can you do 30%/annum return on a multimillion$ account, on a $100mio+ AUM? I wish you luck in finding out.
Maybe. Who knows. It'd be nice to try though, wouldn't it.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,960
  • Feb 14, 2014 6:58pm Feb 14, 2014 6:58pm
On the ER radar for the coming weeks:

2/18: HLF
2/20: PCLN, NEM, HPQ, GRPN
2/24: FSLR, HD,
2/25: TOL
2/26: CHK, TGT, RIG, BIDU
2/27: BBY, CRM, MBT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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