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A "new" simple system based on MA

  • #1,241
  • Feb 1, 2014 7:52am Feb 1, 2014 7:52am
Count me in Hmaoui on future class. Let me know if there is contact info I need to give other than this forum to be put on a waiting list.Thanks
  • #1,242
  • Feb 1, 2014 5:16pm Feb 1, 2014 5:16pm
Hi Hmaoui,
I have two questions,
1. A few posts back you talked about the EUR/JPY trade and took a 1 minute pullback to enter. I am always confused when to take a 1 minute or 5 minute pullback. How would you know that the 1 minute wasn't going to pullback more to create a 5 minute pullback and enter then?

2. Do you trade the same pairs or do they change based on that days setup? I gues what I am asking is how do you start your trading day? Thanks again for everything
  • #1,243
  • Feb 3, 2014 11:55am Feb 3, 2014 11:55am
Quoting wracinti
Hi Hmaoui, I have two questions, 1. A few posts back you talked about the EUR/JPY trade and took a 1 minute pullback to enter. I am always confused when to take a 1 minute or 5 minute pullback. How would you know that the 1 minute wasn't going to pullback more to create a 5 minute pullback and enter then? 2. Do you trade the same pairs or do they change based on that days setup? I gues what I am asking is how do you start your trading day? Thanks again for everything

Hi,

Well I am looking at many markets but I stay focused on the pairs that present a high probability setup to maximize the chance to make money. I analyse the markets on the long term (Weekly/Daily/4h) to get the major trend and the major S/R areas. Then I am looking at 1h and 15min to know the intermediate-term trend, and I am looking at pullbacks on 5 min and 1min (even 150/300 ticks charts). Of course I dont know where the pullback will end ! But you have to do your homework. According to the volatility of the pair you trade, according to the S/R, the strength of the market etc....you will choose the best TF for the timing. For example, volatility is very high on gold so looking at 1mn TF is very "dangerous". I usually prefer to look at 5 min charts for timing. But if there is a large and fast move and you are not in before, you may want to look for a pullback on a 300 ticks charts. So it really depends on the context.

A rule that you must know is that the stronger the market, the larger the stop is ! Why? Because fake signals are common on a trending market...high frequency trading is a killer for your account. Also that's why I use oscillators in conjonction with EMAs and japanese candles. I mean if there is a deep pullback on the Stochastics in conjonction with a nice candle around the EMAs which are going clearly north or south, then the odds are on your side ! Jump in and do not forget that there is a SL to protect you, and that even if the system is reliable there will be some losses ! So don't panic, do your job and be confident in the system.

So after some experience you will be confident enough to take a trade in a pullback that you will judge as reliable....And even if you are stopped, you can be right on the next opportunity so do not hesitate to enter again ! Of course if the rules are ok :-)
  • #1,244
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:03pm Feb 3, 2014 1:03pm
Thank You Hmaoui for that very detailed explanation. I am sure it helped many on this forum prepare their trading day.
  • #1,245
  • Feb 3, 2014 2:37pm Feb 3, 2014 2:37pm
<p>
Quoting wracinti
Thank You Hmaoui for that very detailed explanation. I am sure it helped many on this forum prepare their trading day.
</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>

I hope so !

Just to illustrate the purpose....and because there is not enough charts, look at these graphs. I hope that our members dont post anymore because they are too much focused on earning their pips lol
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  • #1,246
  • Feb 4, 2014 9:33am Feb 4, 2014 9:33am
Here is a bad trade I just took ! Just to show you that you must be focused and respect the rules of the system. I took a trade in a ranging market....I lost 20 pips. Of course this not a bad trade because I lost 20 pips, but just because I did not repsect my own rules...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,247
  • Feb 4, 2014 3:33pm Feb 4, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting hmaoui
Here is a bad trade I just took ! Just to show you that you must be focused and respect the rules of the system. I took a trade in a ranging market....I lost 20 pips. Of course this not a bad trade because I lost 20 pips, but just because I did not repsect my own rules... {image} {image}
Thank You for there examples, they are instructive!
  • #1,248
  • Feb 5, 2014 4:47am Feb 5, 2014 4:47am
Short GJ today. 20 pips, not much from GJ but i'm happy with it. It not was a clear setup because of DMI, but downtrend on M15 and break down the 165 level (again) , so i jumed in, and realize the profit fast (support level and the the near lunch time in London
Attached Image


Hmaoi, how You choose Your trading time? You trade, if You have time, or by the sessions or by economic news releases?
  • #1,249
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:41am Feb 7, 2014 8:41am
GJ buy after non-farm emp. change, price has reached my target, 80 Pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IqfM7Zz.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,250
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:42am Feb 7, 2014 11:42am
Hi Bowforex,
Could you explain your trade a little more for everyone. What time frame, your indicators,etc. Thanks for sharing. Great trade , 80 pips whew!!
  • #1,251
  • Feb 8, 2014 5:10am Feb 8, 2014 5:10am
Quoting wracinti
Hi Bowforex, Could you explain your trade a little more for everyone. What time frame, your indicators,etc. Thanks for sharing. Great trade , 80 pips whew!!
Thank You, I used just the base indies in this t[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rade: DMI, stoch, GMMA, and the Pivots. [/highlight]
I use also trend line alert indie because of my psyhological habit: when i sta[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rt t[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rading, the p[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rice is in a [/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]range o[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]r in t[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rend. [/highlight]I'm impatient, so often I enter early or late. So my own rulez: wait for range, setup the alert levels, and minimalize the terminal - i make somthing other, working, watch move, make some food... When the indicator warns, i begin to pay attention to the chart and try to apply Hmaoui s system.


[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]The othe[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]r indies come f[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rom an othe[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]r system what i test [wellXAMA, boilinge[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]r, [/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]200 MA][/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif], but these a[/highlight]re not part of[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif] Hmaoi s system.[/highlight]

The pivot indie: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1304521794
Trend line alert http://codebase.mql4.com/download/28189
I t[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]rade on M[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]1[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif], M5, M[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]1[/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]5, the sc[/highlight]reenshots was M[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]1[/highlight] charts.
  • #1,252
  • Edited 5:41pm Feb 8, 2014 5:48am | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting bowforex
Short GJ today. 20 pips, not much from GJ but i'm happy with it. It not was a clear setup because of DMI, but downtrend on M15 and break down the 165 level (again) , so i jumed in, and realize the profit fast (support level and the the near lunch time in London {image} Hmaoi, how You choose Your trading time? You trade, if You have time, or by the sessions or by economic news releases?
Hi Bowforex !

Nice to see you here again...Well, to answer your question I always check at multiple time frames. Of course longer Time Frame are here to give me important S/R levels. Intermediate TF are here to give me the trend for the day. And the shorter TF are here to help me in timing which is very important. But sessions are very important too ! Of course it depends on my availability, but also on the pair I trade. Forx example, it is best to trade GBP during London session, EUR/USD during London and NY sessions and especially during the overlap of the two sessions. USD/JPY is very interesting in the second part of NY session, AUD/USD is good during Asian session.

You must be logic : it's better to trade AUD/JPY within the asian session than during the london session !

News releases is an important thing you have to check. Because if operators are waitin for an important news, the market can be flat before the news releases.

So the time you dedicate to trading is important, but you must be prepared and you must know what pairs it is valuable to trade according to the session, and you must know if news releases which can have an important impact on the pairs you trade are waited for. I mean you have to be prepared to get in the markets. Dont ofrget this is a trend trading system so you have to avoid trading during flat periods.
  • #1,253
  • Feb 9, 2014 5:51am Feb 9, 2014 5:51am
Thank you Bowforex for responding to my question and thank you Hmaoui for answering Bowforex. It gives everyone more insight in how to plan their trading day. Like you said Hmaoui you must be prepared to trade. So knowing the hours to trade, the pairs to trade during those hours, the pairs that day to watch based on long and intermediate time frames, and the trend system, we have a strategy.
  • #1,254
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:40pm Feb 11, 2014 3:40pm
Hello all followers !

I put a chart to show you the power of the system on longer TF. Here are a Weekly, a Daily, and a 1H chart on GBP/JPY. What we can see ? You can clearly see an uptrend on a weekly basis with a nice hammer whose body is like a Doji. It is a very powerful candle as it is a weekly chart !

Then open your eyes on the daily chart : we had a nice uptrend and then a break down and the begining of what could be a downtrend. The candle formed the 3rd february is a bearish one...but we are in an uptrend still available on the weekly basis. So TF are not in the same direction. What can then happened ? It can continue to go down breaking the low of the candle of the 3rd february, or making a retracement (as we are in a uptrend on weekly chart). So the strategy is to enter long for a correction on an hourly basis, or enter short if we break the low of the third February an try to see if the trend can change on weekly chart.

As you open the 1h chart, you can see that during the 4th of February, there was a pullback but the trend was still down. You can check that there is a double bottom formed the 5th of February near the 164 level (round number). And you can see the bullish divergence ont the MACD indicator. On the 6th of February at 15h00 London Time there is a very bullish candle engulfing more than 20hrs of price, and we have a MACD above the zero line and DMI+>DMI- BUT we have a Stochastics not in the oversold area. We want the best odds, to get a tight stop....so we wait for oversold zone on the Stochastics. It happened 10 hours later at 166,50. Impossible to take this trade because of the hour....But it happened again the 10th of february at 13h00 London time. I jumped in at 167,40 putting my stop loss 50 pips under this level (just under the RN which is a support). I took half of my profit at 169 because it is a strong resistance level : RN, overbought zone on daily stochastics, and LT EMAs high ! Of course my SL is at 167,50 which is the low of today. Hope that weekly trend will continue but I am not very confident because of daily configuration. We will see....

This is how you can make money with higher TF ! 50 pips SL and more than 150 pips of profit on a half position, and a free trade now. Of course, it can continue or stop. Anyway you cant lose money now. And it takes few minutes to make your analyze and alerts allow you to be far from your screen contrary to scalping or day trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,255
  • Feb 12, 2014 8:23am Feb 12, 2014 8:23am
Quoting hmaoui
Hello all followers ! I put a chart to show you the power of the system on longer TF. Here are a Weekly, a Daily, and a 1H chart on GBP/JPY. What we can see ? You can clearly see an uptrend on a weekly basis with a nice hammer whose body is like a Doji. It is a very powerful candle as it is a weekly chart ! Then open your eyes on the daily chart : we had a nice uptrend and then a break down and the begining of what could be a downtrend. The candle formed the 3rd february is a bearish one...but we are in an uptrend still available on the weekly basis....

As we reached 168,50 I put my SL at 168, under the recent low of the day. So now I am sure to win 60 pips more at least on my second half of position. I think that I will exit 1/4 of my initial position at 169.
  • #1,256
  • Edited 9:04am Feb 12, 2014 8:29am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting hmaoui
{quote} As we reached 168,50 I put my SL at 168, under the recent low of the day. So now I am sure to win 60 pips more at least on my second half of position. I think that I will exit 1/4 of my initial position at 169.
I'm in too, based on M15: the DMI was a bit confused, but i jumped in, now ~+50...
Thank You for your previously answer.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT: the price reached my target, 65 Pips.
  • #1,257
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:50am Feb 12, 2014 10:50am
Quoting bowforex
{quote} I'm in too, based on M15: the DMI was a bit confused, but i jumped in, now ~+50... Thank You for your previously answer. {image} EDIT: the price reached my target, 65 Pips.
You're welcome Bowforex. Hope that it helps you and other followers. Reading your comments, I just want to tell you that even if DMI is not "optimal" dont forget that you use DMI as a confimation tool. Looking at the chart you can see that there was a clear B/O of the R1 level by a bullish candle. Then, there was a pullback with nice price action near the LT EMAs and you can see that EMAs are in the perfect order. DMI does not indicate a bullish trend because it is the begining of the move but it does not indicate a bearish trend. If you look at te DMI- it is falling down indicate that the pullback should stop. So even if you wait for a bullish cross of the DMI, you miss some pips but you are in the right move...and Stochastics confirmed the up move a little bit earlier. Trading is a not an exact science and that's why automated systems are not as powerful as a disciplined trader with a good analyze ! That's my point of view and that's why I dont ask for coding my system : I think it is not the right way to use it. But people are lazzy and like to earn money without any work !
  • #1,258
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:03am Feb 13, 2014 11:03am
Quoting hmaoui
{quote} As we reached 168,50 I put my SL at 168, under the recent low of the day. So now I am sure to win 60 pips more at least on my second half of position. I think that I will exit 1/4 of my initial position at 169.
Just to follow the trade...I exited 1/2 of my position at 169, and then 1/4 at 170. So now I have 1/8 of my initial position which is still running with a SL put at 169. So I made 160 pips on the first half, 260 pips on a quarter, and I am sure to make at least 160 pips more on 1/8.

This is just to show you how you can follow a trade on LT charts. As I said in my first post, this system is really valuable on any TF so you can make money even if you have a regular job ! And that's why I have many students in my classroom who trade this way with very good results.
  • #1,259
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:11am Feb 13, 2014 11:11am
Quoting hmaoui
{quote} Just to follow the trade...I exited 1/2 of my position at 169, and then 1/4 at 170. So now I have 1/8 of my initial position which is still running with a SL put at 169. So I made 160 pips on the first half, 260 pips on a quarter, and I am sure to make at least 160 pips more on 1/8.
Great swing trade!
  • #1,260
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:28am Feb 13, 2014 11:28am
Quoting bowforex
{quote} Great swing trade!
Thank you Bowforex ! Just to show all followers that you can trade on LT charts because I have many questions from FF members who asked me if this system can be used on 1h. Of course it is but you just have to adapt your method (check Weekly/daily charts to enter on 1h). You can use the TF from your choice and it will be a winner system if you use it properly : it means check the trend on higher TF, enter with a good momentum and nice pullback, looking at indicators to confirm. This is very powerful on LT charts.

I personally have 2 accounts : one for day trading and one for swing trading ! I use this system on the 2 accounts and they are positive.
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