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  • #18,361
  • Feb 12, 2014 6:01am Feb 12, 2014 6:01am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Yes 3585 should provide some support.

T.. where is your daily max ATR pointing to for eurusd on the downside?
  • #18,362
  • Feb 12, 2014 9:05am Feb 12, 2014 9:05am
US Dollar index daily... 8150 target? i like 82 for bounce or reversal...
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  • #18,363
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:48am Feb 13, 2014 3:48am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} T.. where is your daily max ATR pointing to for eurusd on the downside?
Jay, there has been a slight change in ATR today as EURUSD has been bought heavily off 3585 and it looks from intraday perspective that we can take long trades on retracements. I have marked important POC on the chart for possible retracements 3630-3605 and possibly target 3745 zone if it give us the retrace. Yesterday it seemed very bearish but today it looks like stop grabbing to the upside.

Trying to find out the reason for this heavily buying, although i havent been able to find it so far.

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  • #18,364
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:07am Feb 13, 2014 4:07am
Its got unfinished business upside. So 3398 is still valid but looks more like we are going to 3919 wit this pa. I really hate euro.. This fx has it in for me. On a plane now so wont be around to see pa but 3737 is also a target now. We left behind 3555.. I have no reason why 3560 caused so a bounce
  • #18,365
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:10am Feb 13, 2014 4:10am
Quoting jaylovin
Its got unfinished business upside. So 3398 is still valid but looks more like we are going to 3919 wit this pa. I really hate euro.. This fx has it in for me. On a plane now so wont be around to see pa but 3737 is also a target now. We left behind 3555.. I have no reason why 3560 caused so a bounce
Yes, there should be a reasoning behind this as fundamentally EURUSD is not supported, and why the dollar sell-off now?
  • #18,366
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:21am Feb 13, 2014 4:21am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Yes, there should be a reasoning behind this as fundamentally EURUSD is not supported, and why the dollar sell-off now?
Gu has a date with 6772 where I think it'll reverse. Au has a target at 9101 but I have no clue on potential resistance

euro.. Well it can go bang some sheep.. 3737 is a target along with the ones I mentioned below. 3689 was also a fib so it maybe likely that we do fall from here..

In addition gu rose, today eu, tomorrow maybe au will follow to meet it's target. And it'll all fall together? As I said last year 3894 isn't the top but I expected 1.3180 ish first. It can still happen but who knows right.
  • #18,367
  • Feb 13, 2014 7:36am Feb 13, 2014 7:36am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} Gu has a date with 6772 where I think it'll reverse. Au has a target at 9101 but I have no clue on potential resistance euro.. Well it can go bang some sheep.. 3737 is a target along with the ones I mentioned below. 3689 was also a fib so it maybe likely that we do fall from here.. In addition gu rose, today eu, tomorrow maybe au will follow to meet it's target. And it'll all fall together? As I said last year 3894 isn't the top but I expected 1.3180 ish first. It can still happen but who knows right.

Now for the continuation of the upside EU needs to be above 3685. Also concerning Cable I have 6740 as important level. Have you noticed AUSSIE. It doesnt follow fiber and cable so it might be that aussie will be pulled down on EU and GU retracement. ( It might tank )
  • #18,368
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:10am Feb 13, 2014 10:10am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Yes, there should be a reasoning behind this as fundamentally EURUSD is not supported, and why the dollar sell-off now?
Figured out totally FAKE price PA caused by yesterday's news. Ill show a little bit later.
  • #18,369
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:08am Feb 13, 2014 11:08am
I missed the first rejection on EU from 3680.
Today my limit order on EU@ 3638 with just 6pip SL.My entry and exit happened just in seconds.As my trendline is having some room till 3670,I did not want to enter EU with bigger SL from few days.I am happy my trendline saved me.But I dnt have any idea why the price is up
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  • #18,370
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:57am Feb 13, 2014 11:57am
Quoting kalyan
I missed the first rejection on EU from 3680. Today my limit order on EU@ 3638 with just 6pip SL.My entry and exit happened just in seconds.As my trendline is having some room till 3670,I did not want to enter EU with bigger SL from few days.I am happy my trendline saved me.But I dnt have any idea why the price is up {image}
Well done Kalyan! Watch for that too tight SL
  • #18,371
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:14am Feb 14, 2014 3:14am
Quoting kalyan
But I dnt have any idea why the price is up {image}
Nobody watch news?

ECB monthly report yesterday went out.

ECB sees rates at current level or lower for extended period, and council is ready to consider all available instruments.
ECB: Forecasters cut 2014 inflation forecast to 1.1% from 1.5%. Euro area seeing prolonged period of low inflation
  • #18,372
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:24am Feb 14, 2014 3:24am
Quoting margin_stop
{quote} Nobody watch news? ECB monthly report yesterday went out. ECB sees rates at current level or lower for extended period, and council is ready to consider all available instruments. ECB: Forecasters cut 2014 inflation forecast to 1.1% from 1.5%. Euro area seeing prolonged period of low inflation
I saw the news..but that wasnt a real reason for that jump as its very dovish..not hawkish. Lowering the rates is not a good sign as the measure is used to prevent euro zone's recovery from stalling. Also lowering the rates usually tanks the pair not vice versa. The technical outlook was bullish yet 2 days ago we saw a fake downside PA.
  • #18,373
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:34am Feb 14, 2014 3:34am
This is the movement. Looking at wild PA and strong black marubozu drop, the price reacted at 88.6 fib. Still it looked like a reversal but it was the key for bullish DEEP retracement which actually was a signal to go long on intraday TF. FAKE PA was caused by talks of future negative deposit rates. That was a 100 pip drop. Yesterday, ECB bulletin was out but it was completely neglected as it has already been priced in and EUR continued in its predetermined direction. If it wasnt for negative repo rate talks EURUSD might have just retraced to 50 or 61.8 but gradually and not so strongly with black marubozu.

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  • #18,374
  • Feb 14, 2014 5:24am Feb 14, 2014 5:24am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} Gu has a date with 6772 where I think it'll reverse. Au has a target at 9101 but I have no clue on potential resistance euro.. Well it can go bang some sheep.. 3737 is a target along with the ones I mentioned below. 3689 was also a fib so it maybe likely that we do fall from here.. In addition gu rose, today eu, tomorrow maybe au will follow to meet it's target. And it'll all fall together? As I said last year 3894 isn't the top but I expected 1.3180 ish first. It can still happen but who knows right.

to be honest.. i was stupid to think EU was going to fall when i said GU and AU up more... 3919 distant target but could happen... i think i will not think of shorting till we are there..
  • #18,375
  • Feb 14, 2014 5:44am Feb 14, 2014 5:44am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} to be honest.. i was stupid to think EU was going to fall when i said GU and AU up more... 3919 distant target but could happen... i think i will not think of shorting till we are there..
Its important to see daily close today. It might be some profit taking later. I will do analysis in NY session. Basically we have reached pre determined levels mentioned yesterday except for 3745.

I am also paying attention to other pairs.
  • #18,376
  • Feb 14, 2014 7:21am Feb 14, 2014 7:21am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Its important to see daily close today. It might be some profit taking later. I will do analysis in NY session. Basically we have reached pre determined levels mentioned yesterday except for 3745. I am also paying attention to other pairs.

Hi T.,

my volume analysis shows, that this wave up may terminate now in the 3710 to 3757 range.

Murrey Math shows great potential for reversal in the 3733 to 3763 range. But extended move may lead to 3794.

Somewhere in the 375x range is, when I remember correctly, a small GAP open So would not be too surprised to see it closed.


Last but not least: Market profiles on monthly TF reveals a virgin POC at 3764. <it is highly likely, especially because this virgin POC is relatively fresh), that price may touch it again or get to it +/- 10 pips or so.


I think, we will see soon
  • #18,377
  • Feb 14, 2014 7:22am Feb 14, 2014 7:22am
Looking at PA on EU, it looks like:


a) kind of small ending diagonal developing

or

b) they collect momentum to push it strongly higher
  • #18,378
  • Feb 14, 2014 7:23am Feb 14, 2014 7:23am
Quoting infinitus
Looking at PA on EU, it looks like: a) kind of small ending diagonal developing or b) they collect momentum to push it strongly higher

if ending diagonal, the movement has a good chance to be already being finished
  • #18,379
  • Feb 14, 2014 8:08am Feb 14, 2014 8:08am
AUDUSD is tryint to reach 9060-9085 zone. Possible long positions could be found at 9015-9000.I am paying attention to that zone. Confluence of fibs and trendline but also atop of H3 level. Daily also is bullish.

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  • #18,380
  • Feb 14, 2014 8:33am Feb 14, 2014 8:33am
GBPJPY is in uptrend. 170.51 BPC pattern is needed for a continuation to 170.82 and 171.35. We can see a consolidation triangle and it needs to be broken for BPC confluence to be valid.

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