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  • #2,821
  • Feb 7, 2014 2:10pm Feb 7, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yes. I think this up move will follow through into next week. NFP disappoints but no big deal, a long stretch until the next FOMC (they don't meet in Feb). Heavy balance of earnings out. We might get dow retracing > 16,000 within the next 2 weeks or so. Emerging markets? So I am eyeing bullish spreads on the index etf's. Banish the thought of exogenous events, explosions at Sochi, etc....
I think so too
  • #2,822
  • Feb 7, 2014 2:13pm Feb 7, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yes. I think this up move will follow through into next week. NFP disappoints but no big deal, a long stretch until the next FOMC (they don't meet in Feb). Heavy balance of earnings out. We might get dow retracing > 16,000 within the next 2 weeks or so. Emerging markets?...
EEM could ride a rising tide > $40 by this time next week no prob
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,823
  • Edited 2:54pm Feb 7, 2014 2:30pm | Edited 2:54pm
If we're in for a bit of a rebound, SVXY long calls look good, watching for dips <$58

I think I am gonna wait/see what Monday's open brings. Have a good weekend ya'll, it's been a wild week, hope you all did better than I did.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,824
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:58pm Feb 7, 2014 8:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} UVXY gave up $5-7 but has gotten back 1/2 of that AH. Short VIX is a dicey trade & probably will be until after NFP.
I was right about this and traded it, but not well. Had bought 2/7 $85 puts on Mon when UVXY was around $95 for ~$4.50, then watched my puts get cut in half when VIX soared, UVXY went >$105, sold them for about $0.50 profit on Thursday when VIX was falling back. VIX cratered after NFP, UVXY went <$75, my $85 puts finished at $15.20....

....shoulda stayed with my plan.

But selling VIX spikes is a good idea to keep in the play book.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,825
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:18pm Feb 7, 2014 9:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....shoulda stayed with my plan
I think I'll have that on my gravestone.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,826
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:51pm Feb 7, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think I'll have that on my gravestone.
I plan on being lost at sea.

In the near term, though, I will sell 2/22 TSLA puts. TSLA ER out 2/17. Bull put spread $145/$115 will net about $1.05.

...will buy the cheap calls Monday, before the spreads get tweaked pre-ER, then wait/see to sell puts...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,827
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:30pm Feb 7, 2014 10:30pm
Also in the Feb exp week: HPQ 2/20; PCLN 2/20;
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,828
  • Feb 8, 2014 8:54am Feb 8, 2014 8:54am
Quoting The Fool
Also in the Feb exp week: HPQ 2/20; PCLN 2/20;
2/22 PCLN puts start gaining value around $950 ($0.20) -- $960/$0.30, $975/$0.45, $985/$0.60, etc. PCLN lt $1,196...

....too rich for me, though
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,829
  • Edited 1:19pm Feb 8, 2014 1:07pm | Edited 1:19pm
$usd cash settled index closed at 80.74 on Friday with the 50 day sitting just underneath it at 80.70 so if we see a break and close beneath come Monday EOD then anyone trading currencies should see a hundreds pips to the upside. I 'll be looking to make some kind of long trade on FXE, meaning euro advancing along with other USD crosses

FXE closed on Friday at$134.75, So i'm looking for a advancement past $1.38 in the EURO

probably trade Feb 22 expiration long $137 call for 3c or $3 per contract sometime on Monday


FXE Feb 2014 137.000 call (FXE140222C00137000)

-OPR


0.03 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.05(62.50%) 7 Feb 20:52

edit; looked at it again and will look to go out to FEB 28 expiration and go for the $136 long call strike at 20c or lower


FXE Feb 2014 136.000 call (FXE140228C00136000)

-OPR


0.20 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.06(23.08%) 7 Feb 20:52
  • #2,830
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:17pm Feb 8, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
$usd cash settled index closed at 80.74 on Friday with the 50 day sitting just underneath it at 80.70 so if we see a break and close beneath come Monday EOD then anyone trading currencies should see a hundreds pips to the upside. I 'll be looking to make some kind of long trade on FXE, meaning euro advancing along with other USD crosses FXE closed on Friday at$134.75, So i'm looking for a advancement past $1.38 in the EURO probably trade Feb 22 expiration long $137 call for 3c or $3 per contract sometime on Monday FXE Feb 2014 137.000 call
That's really a capital idea, Cecil. We are primed for a risk-on spirit to set in and e/u could put on 300 pips or more no prob in the next week or so.

I see FXE 2/14 $136.5c is at $0.02, the 2/22 $137c asks $0.07 as of Friday close and that might bump up if e/u motors up Asian Monday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,831
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:22pm Feb 8, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} That's really a capital idea, Cecil. We are primed for a risk-on spirit to set in and e/u could put on 300 pips or more no prob in the next week or so. I see FXE 2/14 $136.5c is at $0.02, the 2/22 $137c asks $0.07 as of Friday close and that might bump up if e/u motors up Asian Monday....
risk is quite small at them prices only to long options, better of with the lower strike prices may cost a little more but the reward potential is good as long as you control your overall cost of purchase and understand you risk 100%
  • #2,832
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:33pm Feb 8, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} risk is quite small at them prices only to long options, better of with the lower strike prices may cost a little more but the reward potential is good as long as you control your overall cost of purchase and understand you risk 100%
yup. What would 100 of the 2/14 $136.50c @ $0.02 cost you at TradeMonster?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,833
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:35pm Feb 8, 2014 3:35pm
would cost 100 contracts at $0.02= $200 plus commissions cost
  • #2,834
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:38pm Feb 8, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
would cost 100 contracts at $0.02= $200 plus commissions cost
right, so your comms are how much per contract?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,835
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:40pm Feb 8, 2014 3:40pm
my commissions are a little lower than most due to the volume of contracts I trade in a month but as a ball park figure just add another $30-35 for a round trip
  • #2,836
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:44pm Feb 8, 2014 3:44pm
cool, well I think that 2/14 $136.50c is worth a punt for $0.02. I could see it going 20x by midweek....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,837
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:45pm Feb 8, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
my commissions are a little lower than most due to the volume of contracts I trade in a month but as a ball park figure just add another $30-35 for a round trip
btw, did you have to ask them for a comm break or is it m/l automatic there?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,838
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:47pm Feb 8, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} right, so your comms are how much per contract?
on direct trademonster they quote $50 for 100 contracts but I trade through a another broker that uses TM for execution so I negotiate price
  • #2,839
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:49pm Feb 8, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} btw, did you have to ask them for a comm break or is it m/l automatic there?
I'm not sure how it works direct with TM but I asked with mine
  • #2,840
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:51pm Feb 8, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting The Fool
cool, well I think that 2/14 $136.50c is worth a punt for $0.02. I could see it going 20x by midweek....
add another penny on top of that $0.02 and that should be your break even at best
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