GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Is it Really About US Jobs Data Today ?
by Marc Chandler


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The US employment data tends to be among the most important economic reports in a given month. After the dismal December jobs report, there is much anticipation for the January reading. Yet the risk is that today's report proves anti-climactic.

The data will be particularly noisy due to three influences: weather, benchmark revisions and the loss of emergency unemployment benefits (a three month extension was rejected by the Senate earlier this week). Moreover, one of the reasons the US jobs data tends to be important is because of the policy reaction function of the Federal Reserve. Before the FOMC meets again, it will see the Feb jobs report as well. This means that from a policy making point of view, the January data out today may not be that significant.

The euro had been treading water in Asia and early Europe, but retreated to the lows near $1.3550 in response to unexpected news that the German Constitutional Court has substantial concerns that OMT exceeds the ECB's mandate and has referred the case to European Court of Justice. It will rule on its standing vis a vis the German constitution on March 18. The timing and aggressiveness of its stance has taken the market by surprise.




marctomarket

ECB's bond-buying plan referred to Europe's top court
7 February 2014 Last updated at 12:43


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The court says the bond-buying scheme is "incompatible" with EU law


An emergency measure that was credited with stabilising the euro has been referred to Europe's top court.

On Friday, Germany's constitutional court said that the European Central Bank's (ECB) bond-buying scheme could be "incompatible" with EU law.

The European Court of Justice will now decide the legality of the so-called debt "backstop", introduced in 2012.

Although the ECB has not used the emergency power, its existence calmed turmoil in European financial markets.

When he announced the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme, ECB President Mario Draghi said he would do "whatever it takes" to save the single currency.

But the German court has said there was good reason to think the OMT violated a ban on the bank funding governments.

In a statement, the court added: "There are important reasons to assume that it exceeds the European Central Bank's monetary policy mandate and thus infringes the powers of the member states."


BBC.co.uk



Germany challenges Europe's crisis bond plan
By Mark Thompson @MarkThompsonCNN February 7, 2014: 9:04 AM ET


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The euro took a knock after the German constitutional court said the European Central Bank's plan to buy bonds of struggling eurozone states appeared to breach EU law.


LONDON (CNNMoney)

Six German judges cast doubt Friday on the legality of one of Europe's main weapons in its battle to save the euro.

Germany's constitutional court, in a split ruling, said the European Central Bank's untested plan to buy government bonds -- known as Outright Monetary Transactions -- appeared to go beyond the bank's monetary policy mandate and could breach European Union law.

It has referred the issue to Europe's top court.

Related: ECB holds fire despite deflation risk

The bond-buying plan, announced at the peak of Europe's debt crisis in September 2012, followed ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge to do "whatever it takes" to prevent disintegration of the euro.


money.CNN

German court parks tank on ECB lawn, kills OMT bond rescue

Doubtful whether ECB’s back-stop scheme for bonds can be implemented if Europe’s debt crisis blows up again


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It is the first time in the history of the German constitutional court that the judges have referred a question of law to the European Court of Justice


By Ambrose Evans-Pitchard
7:48PM GMT 07 Feb 2014

Germany’s top court has issued a blistering attack on the European Central Bank, arguing that its rescue plan for the euro violates EU treaty law and exceeds the bank’s policy mandate.

The tough language leaves it doubtful whether the ECB’s back-stop scheme for Spanish and Italian bonds can be implemented if Europe’s debt crisis blows up again, and greatly complicates any future recourse to quantitative easing if needed to head off Japanese-style deflation.

The German constitutional court refrained from issuing a final ruling on the legality of the plan, known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). It referred the case to the European Court instead, but only after having pre-judged the issue in lacerating terms that effectively bind German institutions. “The Court considers the OMT decision incompatible with primary law,” it said.


Telegraph.co.uk

Investors Shift Record Amounts From U.S. Stocks to Bonds
By Wes Goodman Feb 7, 2014 10:05 PM GMT+0700


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Investors shifted record amounts out of U.S. stock funds and into bonds, while withdrawing money from emerging-market equities for a 15th straight week, according to Citigroup Inc.

U.S. equity funds had $24 billion of outflows in the week to Feb. 5, according to a report today from the research unit of the third-largest U.S. bank. Withdrawals from stock funds worldwide totaled $28.3 billion, the report said, citing data from EPFR Global, a fund research company in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Money managers plowed $13 billion into U.S. bond funds, accounting for most of the $14.8 billion that flowed into debt worldwide. All the figures for the period are record highs.


Bloomberg

UK wages will take a decade to recover to pre-crisis levels

National Institute of Economic and Social Research says despite stronger economic growth, real consumer wages will not rise above their 2009 peak until "around 2019 or 2020".



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UK salaries will take a decade to recover to levels seen before the financial crisis, even as the recovery gathers pace


By Szu Ping Chan
5:55AM GMT 07 Feb 2014


UK salaries will take a decade to recover to levels seen before the financial crisis, even as the recovery gathers pace, according to a respected think tank.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it expected economic growth to pick-up to 2.5pc this year, from a November forecast of 2pc. It said growth could even hit 3pc this year if Britain's house price boom continued, and output would finally surpass its pre-recession peak by the end of September.

However, Simon Kirby, principal research fellow at the NIESR, said - despite the economic growth - that real consumer wages were still at 2004 levels, and would not rise above their 2009 peak until "around 2019 or 2020.



Telegraph.co.uk

Will China be the 'savior' of emerging markets?

Published: Friday, 7 Feb 2014 | 2:27 AM ET
By: Katie Holliday | Writer for CNBC.com


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With many investors blaming the Federal Reserve for the recent emerging market rout, analysts told CNBC that China may come to the rescue.

"China will be the real driver of an emerging market rebound, it will be its savior," said Paul Krake, founder of View from the Peak: Macro Strategies.

"A reduction in the Fed's asset-purchase program is a concern but well telegraphed... While not the panacea for deficit emerging market economies, a Chinese rebound is a tremendous help both in terms of export recovery and asset market sentiment," he added.



CNBC

Next up for markets—Yellen

Published: Friday, 7 Feb 2014 | 6:54 PM ET
By: Patti Domm | CNBC Executive News Editor



Fed Chair Janet Yellen's first testimony before Congress is the big event for markets in the week ahead, as traders sift through economic data to see if the softness that showed up in January's jobs is more about bad weather, or something more worrisome.

[highlight=rgb(255, 255, 255)]Yellen, who took the helm at the central bank Monday, has not been an active part of the speaking circuit like other Fed officials. So traders will study her every nuance to see if she is as dovish as they expect her to be, while also promoting a tapering back of the Fed's bond-buying program. [/highlight]The Fed has cut back twice and is now buying $65 billion a month, a program expected to wind down before year end.

[highlight=rgb(255, 255, 255)]There are some important economic reports to watch, including Thursday's retail sales, which is expected to be flat—another casualty of the cold and snowy winter. Cisco reports on Wednesday and PepsiCo and AIG on Thursday. [/highlight]



[highlight=rgb(255, 255, 255)]CNBC[/highlight]

CNBC poll: Fiscal crisis is the world's biggest risk


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CNBC

Dear All,

Give more ATTENTION the "Highest Impact" NEWS in both the day for Next Week :nerd:

Thu Feb 11, 2014
10:00 am -- USD -- Fed's Yellen Chair Testifies

Wed Feb 12, 2014
5:30 am --- GBP -- BOE Gov Carney Speaks
10:30 am -- EUR -- ECB President Draghi Speaks



Take Care & Good Luck


Best Regards,
Tsar

.......Nice thread Tsar, congratulations, good luck.........

For ALL...


Happy VALENTINE's Day


With LOVE,
Tsar





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It's TIME back to... http://s13.rimg.info/b84adfef469e6af...08b9b19cfe.gif

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Have a good trip home Tsar.........

Thank you, Sir... http://s14.rimg.info/8330de5a45786b4...0242a8981a.gif

Cable in H1 Chart...


Yesterday March 4, 2014 - got DOWN Trend

Cable in H1 Chart - Updates


She played in TRIANGLES.
Will UPward to Re-test Weekly Pivot later ?

Cable in H4 Chart...


Price in between Supply & Demand area. Alias SIDEWAY
Now... in above Demand area (BLUE Box)

FIBER in H1 Chart...


Euro got DOWN Trend. And Price in Critical Point Now

Fiber in H4 Chart...


Price DOWNward and touch in LOWER Trendline.
Still in between Supply & Demand area

find somewhere in another new place.. ur room, may I?

oh really? good for u