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Automated dreams with discretionary tendencies Journal...

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Apr 27, 2014 12:08pm Feb 4, 2014 12:36pm | Edited Apr 27, 2014 12:08pm
Edit: because of the large draw-downs associated to the WMP model this has now been discontinued..
Only the Open Monday Plus ( OMP ) model is now followed..all trades are in a personal live account.

This is now a journal for the very low maintenance trading model, OMP...its birth was designed to run parallel with my default
way of trading which takes up most of my trading time.

OMP, current data starts from post #36




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



WPB Model


Positive pairs Tested under the default settings 200/200 ..

back-test date started 04.01.2010

EURCHF
USDJPY
EURJPY
NZDJPY
AUDJPY
GBPAUD


Negative pairs Tested under the default settings 200/200 ..

back-test date started 04.01.2010

AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
CADCHF
GBPCHf
EURAUD


OMP Instrument list 10/02/2014

Silver
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURJPY
EURNZD
GBPAUD
USDCAD
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #2
  • Edited 1:20pm Feb 4, 2014 1:07pm | Edited 1:20pm
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 1

EURCHF on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF.png Size: 9 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF 1.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #3
  • Edited 4:09pm Feb 4, 2014 1:13pm | Edited 4:09pm
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 2



USDJPY on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 1.png Size: 7 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 3.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #4
  • Feb 4, 2014 1:19pm Feb 4, 2014 1:19pm
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 3


EURJPY on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY1.png Size: 64 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #5
  • Feb 4, 2014 1:24pm Feb 4, 2014 1:24pm
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 4



NZDJPY on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY 1.png Size: 77 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #6
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:27am Feb 5, 2014 3:27am
Looks promising. I think your risk per trade is very low, maybe 0.2%?

When trading live, price will often gap through both your stops and profit targets. Does the program take this into account, or does it assume you always get filled at 200 pips?

I'm afraid I'm not much good at this kind of stuff and I don't use MT4. But the more I look at those results the better they seem - when I mentally adjust them to my own risk profile and add them together. Are you running the same test on other pairs?
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #7
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:45am Feb 5, 2014 3:45am
Quoting j4d
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 4 NZDJPY on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date.. {image} {image}

The vertical Line in the chart is trade 28 in the above equity curve in NJ..



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpyweekly.png Size: 81 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #8
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:59am Feb 5, 2014 3:59am
Quoting numbnuts
Looks promising. I think your risk per trade is very low, maybe 0.2%? When trading live, price will often gap through both your stops and profit targets. Does the program take this into account, or does it assume you always get filled at 200 pips? I'm afraid I'm not much good at this kind of stuff and I don't use MT4. But the more I look at those results the better they seem - when I mentally adjust them to my own risk profile and add them together. Are you running the same test on other pairs?
Hey numb, correct.... currently risk is just a small arbitrary figure just for crude testing...it seems with current tested pairs they rarely
hit the 200/200 orders and in most cases trades just get timed out on the open...

I think you'll be right with regards to 200/200 parameters when testing say the GBP crosses etc because of the large atr's.. All tests are currently
carried out under the default setting of 200/200 so no optimizing yet..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #9
  • Feb 5, 2014 4:10am Feb 5, 2014 4:10am
Quoting numbnuts
Looks promising. I think your risk per trade is very low, maybe 0.2%? When trading live, price will often gap through both your stops and profit targets. Does the program take this into account, or does it assume you always get filled at 200 pips? I'm afraid I'm not much good at this kind of stuff and I don't use MT4. But the more I look at those results the better they seem - when I mentally adjust them to my own risk profile and add them together. Are you running the same test on other pairs?
numb due to back testing results forward testing is going to be adjusted in my forward testing account to the pairs that "perform" in the current
environment...So discretionary when choosing the environment..automated when executing trades... seems to make sense...
as pairs are tested they will go into the two sets of groups.... Fake or break depending on data tests..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #10
  • Feb 6, 2014 12:53am Feb 6, 2014 12:53am
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 5


EURAUD on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud1.png Size: 10 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #11
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:00am Feb 6, 2014 1:00am
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 6

AUDJPY on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY1.png Size: 9 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #12
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:20am Feb 6, 2014 1:20am
WPB....200/200 Back-Test 7

GBPAUD on Default settings Time period from 04.01.2010 to the current date..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud 1.png Size: 10 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud.png Size: 28 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #13
  • Edited 1:37am Feb 6, 2014 1:25am | Edited 1:37am
All pairs tested are listed in post 1 under the headings of negative or positive ..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:49am Feb 6, 2014 2:49am
Nice, I like automated trading. It's a world in its own but a fantastic one.

I'll be following.
Best Regards!
  • #15
  • Feb 6, 2014 10:19am Feb 6, 2014 10:19am
Only positive pairs are going into the forward test ...
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #16
  • Feb 7, 2014 3:20am Feb 7, 2014 3:20am
GBP/AUD shows a profit for this 4 year period and EUR/AUD shows a loss - but if you changed the time period slightly, say 2009 - 2013 instead of 2010 - 2014, they would probably be reversed. There is so much long term variability with this strategy, I don't think I would disqualify a particular pair based on 4 years of data. I'm happy to trade a basket of majors which, collectively, should in theory show profit over 10 - 20 years.

Some of the orders I put in today are far from the current price, as h. has mentioned, it seems pointless placing them as price is unlikely to trip the orders - but you never know, especially on nfp day. A big unemployment shock, election surprise, natural disaster and those unlikely entries could easily get hit - and when they go, I think they will really go.

Happy 1st NFP
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #17
  • Edited 4:05am Feb 7, 2014 3:45am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting numbnuts
GBP/AUD shows a profit for this 4 year period and EUR/AUD shows a loss - but if you changed the time period slightly, say 2009 - 2013 instead of 2010 - 2014, they would probably be reversed. There is so much long term variability with this strategy, I don't think I would disqualify a particular pair based on 4 years of data. I'm happy to trade a basket of majors which, collectively, should in theory show profit over 10 - 20 years. Some of the orders I put in today are far from the current price, as h. has mentioned, it seems pointless placing them...
I agree numb, different time periods can drastically change the equity curve, tests so far have been based on a datum which i picked as Jan 2010.
I didnt want to include the collapse post 2008 yet... I was just interested in a more normalized period of time since... there are so many variables..
I'm not sure whether that's correct it just felt right to start this way.. I have the nagging thought of a black swan is always going to happen at some point which leads me to be very cautious with this...even 5-6-7 years down the road It could decimate the account..

For me an individual account has to be set up for this and not played out with the main funds.. is your account attached to other trades or independent ?
your thoughts on this ?. Of course a BS could also work in our favour. I will probably end up testing the periods around the tech bubble and other volatile periods etc to give some clarity in this ?.. i will post as of when..

for some reason Im having problems at FXbook but as soon as Ethan sorts I'll let you know..

Game on NFP ..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #18
  • Feb 7, 2014 3:52am Feb 7, 2014 3:52am
Quoting numbnuts
GBP/AUD shows a profit for this 4 year period and EUR/AUD shows a loss - but if you changed the time period slightly, say 2009 - 2013 instead of 2010 - 2014, they would probably be reversed. There is so much long term variability with this strategy, I don't think I would disqualify a particular pair based on 4 years of data. I'm happy to trade a basket of majors which, collectively, should in theory show profit over 10 - 20 years. Some of the orders I put in today are far from the current price, as h. has mentioned, it seems pointless placing them...

Forgot to mention..Ive been testing snippets of data periods where price for a particular instrument/pair has gone parabolic.. Like the loonie the last 5 or so weeks.. early days yet but its proving interesting..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #19
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:21am Feb 7, 2014 4:21am
Quoting j4d
For me an individual account has to be set up for this and not played out with the main funds.. is your account attached to other trades or independent ?....
I agree... I have separate accounts for each strategy I trade, so the 1k account you see only includes trades from this. It's the only acct I have set to public view. I noticed you disappeared from MFXB, weird. Good luck with that
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #20
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:07pm Feb 7, 2014 4:07pm
Did anyone get into any trades today? I got nothing trading the majors, but it looks like somebody trading AUD/JPY might have got a bite.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
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