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  • #1,621
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:36am Feb 6, 2014 1:36am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} morning PTL only interested in buying GU will wait GU is in my view LONG (1.6220 must hold) If we reach 1.6253 - 1.6221 area i want to load longs but i think we dont see lower levels i have stil valid targets @ 1.6518 on my weekly chart (for this week)

well looking at the daily chart, there has been some buying down here the last couple of days, but it has not really made any progress, I guess today might provide more info..but I am only really looking for spots to lean on..here is a good spot I think, cheap..might give us another push back down towards the levels you mention..good luck today bro..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,622
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:41am Feb 6, 2014 1:41am
Get now some Information will post it.
  • #1,623
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:42am Feb 6, 2014 1:42am
Today, we and consensus expect the BoE to leave policy unchanged and therefore issue no statement. The ECB is likely to cut its main refinancing rate by 15bp to 0.10% (cf. 0.25%) and reduce its deposit rate by 10bp to -0.10% (cf. 0.0%) at either today’s meeting or in March following last week’s very low euro zone inflation (0.7% y/y). If the ECB decide to leave rate unchanged today we still expect a dovish outlook and potential indications of a policy response to emerge in the press conference. As such we recommend being short EUR/USD over the meeting. There are no significant US data to note today but Boston Fed President Rosengren (non-voter, dovish) is scheduled to speak.
  • #1,624
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:43am Feb 6, 2014 1:43am
6365 is the number I watch in sterling, a push/close above there will change my bias I think
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,625
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:49am Feb 6, 2014 1:49am
Quoting Schickeria
Today, we and consensus expect the BoE to leave policy unchanged and therefore issue no statement. The ECB is likely to cut its main refinancing rate by 15bp to 0.10% (cf. 0.25%) and reduce its deposit rate by 10bp to -0.10% (cf. 0.0%) at either today’s meeting or in March following last week’s very low euro zone inflation (0.7% y/y). If the ECB decide to leave rate unchanged today we still expect a dovish outlook and potential indications of a policy response to emerge in the press conference. As such we recommend being short EUR/USD over the meeting....

yep lot of news today, we could see some decent moves I guess...best to play it tight
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,626
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:49am Feb 6, 2014 1:49am
Quoting PayTheLimit
6365 is the number I watch in sterling, a push/close above there will change my bias I think
i expect a strong upmove soon
  • #1,627
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:58am Feb 6, 2014 1:58am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} yep lot of news today, we could see some decent moves I guess...best to play it tight
GU my final goal level 1.62486 untested until now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,628
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:00am Feb 6, 2014 2:00am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} i expect a strong upmove soon
yes, it would be coming off an area that is well advertised..6215/6262...lets see..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,629
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:01am Feb 6, 2014 2:01am
Quoting PayTheLimit
short cable at 6312,risk 6322..
added to them..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,630
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:03am Feb 6, 2014 2:03am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} GU my final goal level 1.62486 untested until now {image}

so first down, then up?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,631
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:13am Feb 6, 2014 2:13am
City Bank



GBP shrugs off more data
Halifax house prices for January came in slightly stronger than expected at 1.1% MoM and 7.3% YoY vs expected 1.0% and 7.2% respectively.
GBPUSD is little moved on the back of this with curernt spot at 1.6315 whilst EURGBP remains at 0.8290. This is not too surprising with the pairs likely to trade lightly ahead of the BoE and ECB announcements later today.
  • #1,632
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:13am Feb 6, 2014 2:13am
It was a choppy session for USD/JPY yesterday, despite a soft US ADP yesterday USD/JPY didn't take out a recent low and bounced from 100.80 to 101.60. I think it was because the market positioning was getting flattened, as most of long positions was washed out the downside move wasn't accelerated. In the short term, a couple of resistances keeps capping the market which are at 101.80 and 102.00, so the topside looks still heavy. We have US NFP tomorrow and I don't expect we see the topside break before that event. However, as I said the downside move is getting slower and I think that that may be a sign that consistent Japanese demands finally absorbs the fast money selling. I am square at the moment, as an intraday I play it using both resistance at 101.80/102.00 and support at 100.80/101.00.

AUD/JPY rallied again on the back of strong AUD data today, it is right on a key pivotal level of 91.

EUR – No change of view. Whilst below 1.3595 this is still a sell. We do have the ECB decision today which should make the market even more choppy than it was yesterday. 1.3540 broke to the topside, but it was a fade as I suggested. I don’t think Mario cuts rates today, even with the recent dip in the HICP numbers, and this could give us another opportunity to sell a rally. The press conference will probably be dovish again. Last month’s ECB day gave us a 40 point rally after no-change, followed by a 80 point sell-off in the conference. A similar profile is the most likely event today, although a break above 1.3600 would concern me (as would a break of 138.45 in Eur/Jpy to the topside).

The bids around 1.3500 a being very, very stubborn. Below 1.3475 opens up the downside.

CHF – Still within its ranges as Eur/Chf holds above the 1.2185 lows. Data from the US will determine where we travel, although I am still holding my ticket for a topside move. Levels to chop remain the same. 1.2185 and 0.8990.

GBP – Market continues to trade a little like it is long of pounds but we’re not breaking ranges. Odd move on a slight miss to the downside in the Services PMI yesterday. Eur/Gbp could be the best vehicle to trade this today even though we failed to push higher following the break of 0.8320 yesterday. Draghi will dictate.

NOK – Decent numbers from Norway lifted the Nok/Sek cross. Housing data from Sweden the highlight today which should give us a 80 point move to trade.

Another batch of better data from Australia overnight. The trade balance was the key to the move higher with that showing a strong surplus, also exports were up 4pct .
Aud$ continue to buy dips as the market is still not positioned for this move , 0.8920/30 is the first level of support , resistance comes in at 0.8985 ( fibbo 76.4) .

$cad continues to find support at 1.1040/50 , yesterday’s building data was weak and still backs the approach of buying on dips or selling the loonie on the crosses , look for 1.1040/90 initially.
Nzd continues to hit resistance on approaches to 0.8260 , but real money buying continues to appear sub 0.8200 , it’s really trapped in a range and needing a catalyst to break out
  • #1,633
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:15am Feb 6, 2014 2:15am
BNP



EUR OPTION FLOWS
through the Asian session, we've noted an increase in downside buying interest -> 15-20dta stuff, EUR Puts.. 1-3m tenors.. decent clips 200-300 per go...Macro lvgd players primarily.. hearing some away too.
  • #1,634
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:18am Feb 6, 2014 2:18am
UNICREDIT



- EUR: The ECB remaining on the sideline today is expected to offer EUR-USD some support, but some book squaring ahead of the US Employment Report tomorrow may limit any rally above the 1.36 area for now.

- GBP: A steady BoE and no further policy news are likely to be neutral for sterling, with investors now waiting for the bank’s Inflation Report next week (12 February). Nonetheless, a firmer EUR-USD following the ECB result may help EUR-GBP stay above 0.83 and cable hold the line close to 1.63

- AUD: Data releases in Australia overnight and the RBA’s monetary policy statement tonight are unlikely to severely impact the AUD as warning against its strength by the bank may resume quickly if it re-approaches the 0.90/0.91 area. Consolidation at around the current 0.89 area may continue
  • #1,635
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:19am Feb 6, 2014 2:19am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} so first down, then up?
yes
  • #1,636
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:20am Feb 6, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} yes
good..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,637
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:20am Feb 6, 2014 2:20am
Morning Guys.. Whats your view on the euro?
I see it like this, She is hanging in the 3524 area & might want a visit to 360x. resistance ahead at 3572/85.
I've a long from 3514, SL at 3484 looking for 360x
[H4 Chart]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,638
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:21am Feb 6, 2014 2:21am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} yes
1.6269/71 important level
  • #1,639
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:24am Feb 6, 2014 2:24am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
Morning Guys.. Whats your view on the euro? I see it like this, She is hanging in the 3524 area & might want a visit to 360x. resistance ahead at 3572/85. I've a long from 3514, SL at 3484 looking for 360x [H4 Chart] {image}
for me its range bound, and I cant really find a way to play it...good luck
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,640
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:26am Feb 6, 2014 2:26am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} 1.6269/71 important level
GU H4 strong divergence RSI 14
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD (-).png Size: 118 KB
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