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Am I Correct - Possible Put Trade?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 1, 2014 4:46pm Feb 1, 2014 4:46pm
Hi,

I've posted a Q a couple of minutes ago asking about binary options education thing. I thought about the patterns kinda like the 123 then break pattern, surfed through a couple of old charts on the 1h, 4h and daily and it seems to be helpful too in binary options to guess the next candle direction as it has been helpful to me with FX. here's an example of a possible "PUT" trade for the next week opining. Thoughts ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 48 KB
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #2
  • Feb 1, 2014 9:33pm Feb 1, 2014 9:33pm
When you trade derivative instruments like binary options, you are essentially making a complex bet on the direction of the underlying asset - in this case, a currency pair. If you are long and it goes up, you make money. If you are long and it goes down, you lose money. Why not just trade the pair itself? By using derivatives you are just throwing more obstacles and distractions in your own path, blurring the picture and moving away from where you should be. Concentrate on price alone, where it is going, and whether you want to be long or short - everything else is a distraction. You should be looking to remove those distractions, not add to them.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Feb 2, 2014 6:40am Feb 2, 2014 6:40am
<p>
Quoting numbnuts
When you trade derivative instruments like binary options, you are essentially making a complex bet on the direction of the underlying asset - in this case, a currency pair. If you are long and it goes up, you make money. If you are long and it goes down, you lose money. Why not just trade the pair itself? By using derivatives you are just throwing more obstacles and distractions in your own path, blurring the picture and moving away from where you should be. Concentrate on price alone, where it is going, and whether you want to be long or short...
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I'm sorry I just don't get what you mean by the distractions. A little clarification would be helpful please
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #4
  • Feb 2, 2014 7:57am Feb 2, 2014 7:57am
Helloooo Muhammad! I see CONGRATULATIONS are in order! Well done

Major support has been broken (2). It's going down. Momentum is still strong.
  • #5
  • Feb 2, 2014 8:46am Feb 2, 2014 8:46am
Hello Muhammad,

With binaries, time is always the enemy. Measuring in candles, you might be on the right track. But in binaries the risk is in the high speed volatility, the spikes that alway seem to run against you. In short: binaries suck, they are worse than gambling. But.....

I have a sleeping low balance binary account that i opened when i just started this trading hobby and did not know what it was all about. Lost most of the 200 Euro's and still got 74 left. I can place bets of 20 Euro's minimum.

Now i am looking for a strategy where you use the forex skills, to place bets in binaries.

I think the time frame of the placed binary bet must be large enough to be sure of enough price fall (or rise) to avoid the spike risk that you have on smaller timeframes. Best would be m30 or h1. Too long a timeframe gives simply not enough profits for the risk you take. Trading at the right time, you also have no trouble with economic news.

So the strategy and calculations should be based on the 30 minutes or h1 timeframe. As the chart you show now is on a daily base, you should start practicing with smaller time frames.

That was my initial plan at least. Maybe we can team up on this and find a strategy where only one thing matters: Predicting if the next candle will be up or down and knowing that before the candle opens. One candle on the m30 is enough and only Open and Close matter. High and Low are not an issue. Trend afterwards is neither.

Any idea's? I like to work with fractals and opposite breakthroughs afterwards, because they tend to last.
  • #6
  • Feb 2, 2014 10:18am Feb 2, 2014 10:18am
<p>
Quoting jen101
Helloooo Muhammad! I see CONGRATULATIONS are in order! Well done <img src="http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Smile" smilieid="82" class="inlineimg" /> Major support has been broken (2). It's going down. Momentum is still strong.
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Thanks jen missed you Buddy
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #7
  • Feb 2, 2014 10:23am Feb 2, 2014 10:23am
<p>
Quoting SemperAugust
Hello Muhammad, With binaries, time is always the enemy. Measuring in candles, you might be on the right track. But in binaries the risk is in the high speed volatility, the spikes that alway seem to run against you. In short: binaries suck, they are worse than gambling. But..... I have a sleeping low balance binary account that i opened when i just started this trading hobby and did not know what it was all about. Lost most of the 200 Euro's and still got 74 left. I can place bets of 20 Euro's minimum. Now i am looking for a strategy where you...
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Hi, thanks for the insights. Teaming up would be great if we areaft er a certain initial goal. Let's setup one andgo aft er it. Tell me what you thinking and I'll come back to check on it and give it a though later this evening cause I'm driving backfr om worknow. Later
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #8
  • Feb 2, 2014 1:10pm Feb 2, 2014 1:10pm
Binary options are a joke, its not even trading its gambling.
  • #9
  • Feb 2, 2014 1:12pm Feb 2, 2014 1:12pm
<p>
Quoting Tnd
Binary options are a joke, its not even trading its gambling.
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In both we're predicting the market direction, aren't we?!
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #10
  • Feb 2, 2014 1:26pm Feb 2, 2014 1:26pm
In both we are predicting direction. That's just about all similarities there are. Comparing binaries to forex is like comparing a can of Spam with a fresh steak: it's both meat.

The best way to place a binary trade is spotting a firm trend on the m30 timeframe. I would say, after a reversal that has been confirmed by the last pivot, when trend breaks through the price-area of the second last pivot point, trend is often quite strong and will last one or two candles at least. As one candle is the goal, that should do the trick.
  • #11
  • Feb 2, 2014 1:30pm Feb 2, 2014 1:30pm
<p>
Quoting SemperAugust
In both we are predicting direction. That's just about all similarities there are. Comparing binaries to forex is like comparing a can of Spam with a fresh steak: it's both meat. The best way to place a binary trade is spotting a firm trend on the m30 timeframe. I would say, after a reversal that has been confirmed by the last pivot, when trend breaks through the price-area of the second last pivot point, trend is often quite strong and will last one or two candles at least. As one candle is the goal, that should do the trick.
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You look like someone who knows what he's talking about will put that to test andsee
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #12
  • Feb 2, 2014 3:53pm Feb 2, 2014 3:53pm
In this image you see en example of the last and second last Pivot. As you know the last Pivot is always formed two candles later. So in a way it's a useless signal. But the support or resistance line formed by the previous pivot – the blue lower line – is quite strong. If price breaks through, it is a strong trend, but of course you do not know how deep price will fall. In binaries however price is less of an issue than time.

So we only have to find out how to use this strong trend indicator in a time aspect. We might look or test back and see how long approximately price stays under that pivot line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.png Size: 42 KB
  • #13
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:01pm Feb 2, 2014 4:01pm
Market just opened, I'm Put on EurUsd with the end of the day as an expiry time.
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  • #14
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:02pm Feb 2, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting SemperAugust
In this image you see en example of the last and second last Pivot. As you know the last Pivot is always formed two candles later. So in a way it's a useless signal. But the support or resistance line formed by the previous pivot – the blue lower line – is quite strong. If price breaks through, it is a strong trend, but of course you do not know how deep price will fall. In binaries however price is less of an issue than time. So we only have to find out how to use this strong trend indicator in a time aspect. We might look or test back and see...

I'll come back to read your insight a few minutes later
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #15
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:41pm Feb 2, 2014 5:41pm
Quoting SemperAugust
In this image you see en example of the last and second last Pivot. As you know the last Pivot is always formed two candles later. So in a way it's a useless signal. But the support or resistance line formed by the previous pivot – the blue lower line – is quite strong. If price breaks through, it is a strong trend, but of course you do not know how deep price will fall. In binaries however price is less of an issue than time. So we only have to find out how to use this strong trend indicator in a time aspect. We might look or test back and see...

I've read it now and it would be good to attach that indicator so I can fully understand what you're pointing at
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #16
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:03pm Feb 3, 2014 4:03pm
Put failed. Maybe I should've waited for the pullback before entering the trade ?
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #17
  • Feb 4, 2014 1:04am Feb 4, 2014 1:04am
Bad luck. I got three wins on the EURUSD yesterday, at a total of 80 pips. No money involved, was test driving my updated strategy.

I'm fine tuning my strategy. For testing and learning i use forex demo-accounts of TradersWay.com or lqdmarkets.com. They both offer MT4 and endless working on demo's.

I'll get back with results.
  • #18
  • Feb 4, 2014 8:22am Feb 4, 2014 8:22am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
Put failed. Maybe I should've waited for the pullback before entering the trade ?
Maybe forex is easier! I still believe it's going down, there's a big weekly bearish engulfing candle as well as the break you showed above; just don't know when, lol. It figures that it will range for a bit after the big moves at the end of last week before dropping again.

Why binaries Muhammad? I think judging time is far more difficult than distance. EJ was a good winner for yesterday .
  • #19
  • Feb 4, 2014 8:52am Feb 4, 2014 8:52am
Binaries is about judging direction and time.
Forex is about judging direction and distance. Both are difficult.

If you're good in predicting directions and entering a trade but have trouble exiting (SL and TP), binaries may be an option. And if you are right more than 75% of the cases, making money with binaries is faster. If you want more influence in entering and exiting a trade and want to control losses better, forex is better.

Binaries are developed for gamblers, not for traders. I think it may be possible to find a strategy that is especially fit for binary trading, with advanced charting and calculating that binary brokers do not offer. If so, there's a lot of profit waiting at a minimum of investment. There's no margin!

This week i'm busy, but next week, i'll definitely give it a go. Wie niet waagt, blijft maagd! (Dutch saying).
  • #20
  • Feb 4, 2014 10:15am Feb 4, 2014 10:15am
How about trading news with binaries - can you do that?
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