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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #44,761
  • Edited 2:26am Feb 4, 2014 2:11am | Edited 2:26am
wow aud?

anyone knows if panda still on holiday?
supposed be for at least 1 week?

oh RBA.
ok make wild ride, i need get ready.
the itch is killing me.
hope they'll range for sometime.
wait for me, please, pretty please.

ok ok getting it.
85/90 is nice eq.
a little hawkish on rates forward.
stance. outlook made stable.
rest is up to panda i guess.

so underpin 86.50 was real money.
  • #44,762
  • Feb 4, 2014 2:34am Feb 4, 2014 2:34am
2 fronts play.
euro and cable topped while aud stabilizes.
best i not get too excited.
going be roller coaster twinlight zone.

seat belt sign on please.
watch out for cross winds.
  • #44,763
  • Feb 4, 2014 2:50am Feb 4, 2014 2:50am
hi fti

Panda is back thursday, i believe.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #44,764
  • Feb 4, 2014 3:38am Feb 4, 2014 3:38am
Quoting phil13
hi fti Panda is back thursday, i believe. regards Phil.
i looking out for them.
This year not received big red angpow yet.
if not join que not get red packets.

regards
  • #44,765
  • Feb 4, 2014 3:48am Feb 4, 2014 3:48am
hi fti

could not find virtual money, so filled with best wishes my friend.

Attached Image


regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #44,766
  • Feb 4, 2014 4:36am Feb 4, 2014 4:36am
Quoting phil13
hi fti could not find virtual money, so filled with best wishes my friend. {image} regards Phil.
wah 謝謝,謝謝 Thank You Thank You
恭喜發財. Best wishes for a Prosperous New Year!

regards
Attached Image
  • #44,767
  • Feb 4, 2014 4:42am Feb 4, 2014 4:42am
Just to add some spice into the mixture

Jack Lew: US could default on debt by 'end of month'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26021640
  • #44,768
  • Feb 4, 2014 4:49am Feb 4, 2014 4:49am
correct traditional way.
when give 福 to others, expect return to self.
so all gets.

福=benevolence(good fortune)
退回來=returns , direct translates, turns other way around.



so when someone gives fu, upside down, recepient will ask return it around.

regards
Attached Image
  • #44,769
  • Edited 6:01am Feb 4, 2014 4:55am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting Zoran
Just to add some spice into the mixture Jack Lew: US could default on debt by 'end of month' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26021640
huh?
use bad word hor. default.
untouchable word.

Thanks for info Zoran.

regards

if Congress does not raise its borrowing limit.
always put congress between rocks and a hard place?
ai ya politics, this out of my ability analyse.

general analysis is sounds like child asking dad for pocket money with drama.
depends on how market want perceive the validity of the drama.
Last year we had lots of that. Line in the sand stuff.
This year still on ?
They trying bargain for deals again.
function of free markets.
In market circles is called "russian tanking" the deal.
Is same strategy in hostage negiotiations scenario.
so everything is on bargaining table, time, size, behaviour.
they baragin we watch reactions.
most intense on (theta)time expiry.

so in general expect currency upward skew as time expires.
also the drama.
but we in volitile zone , expect anything from nervious bystanders.
so no stand fully naked(exposed) in markets, no cry wolf and keep heads down(or wear crash helmets)

now is good time, no bias is good bias.
  • #44,770
  • Feb 4, 2014 5:52am Feb 4, 2014 5:52am
markets not seems extremely spooked.
lots time for bulls and bears lay their bets.
lets see who plays best.


regards
  • #44,771
  • Feb 4, 2014 6:24am Feb 4, 2014 6:24am
Quoting fti
{quote} ooi ! can wake up or not? is potong ice cream la. Don't be so pervert la. what is your this OBsession about girls. can you get those hormones in check or not, otherwise you may just gets yam.(refer yamming video provided earlier) There you go. "revenge." With that kinda attitude is not difficult get in trouble. everywhere! and remember, the market is not one hell of forgiving place hor. regards
well if you don't like the taste then you must have a reason to eat it, revenge is that reason.
the best medicine is hard to swallow.

Quoting fti
{quote} yeap, that was my concern when detected your mindset change. Is like competitions, destroys the mindset harmony & balance. nice, that you notice. But would had been best if remedied earlier. Could had spent the foreign cap for other stuff? This is major impadement for dealers moving to new rooms. Too eager, unbalances the mind. Takes some time cool and ease back to comfort zone trading. Is like getting new gfs, lots drama.(oh this comment is for 4tiger) regards
well, it's always do or die. why pussyfoot about it? AOW states, never force an enemy into a dead end, always leave them room for escape so they do not do or die. an enemy with no other option is dangerous. so when we put ourselves into that situation.. we will know what kind of balls we have.

thanks fti
  • #44,772
  • Feb 4, 2014 6:37am Feb 4, 2014 6:37am
Quoting fti
correct traditional way. when give 福 to others, expect return to self. so all gets. 福=benevolence(good fortune) 退回來=returns , direct translates, turns other way around. so when someone gives fu, upside down, recepient will ask return it around. regards {image}


hi fti

thank you

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #44,773
  • Edited 7:02am Feb 4, 2014 6:46am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting fti
correct traditional way. when give 福 to others, expect return to self. so all gets. 福=benevolence(good fortune) 退回來=returns , direct translates, turns other way around. so when someone gives fu, upside down, recepient will ask return it around. regards {image}
aiya.. i have to comment on this, sorry.

福, pronounced fu (foo), meaning good fortune http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E7%A6%8F
when 福 is turned upside down..

upside down is 倒, pronounced dao, meaning inverted. http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E5%80%92
it is homonym to the word 到, also pronounced dao, meaning arrived. http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E5%88%B0

so good fortune has arrived.

and no, it is not 道 Dao http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E9%81%93

Chinese is the hardest language to learn...

but i do like how fti explains it!! what goes around.. comes around, eh?
  • #44,774
  • Feb 4, 2014 7:13am Feb 4, 2014 7:13am
New traders often concentrate on entry and exit, but rarely people concentrating on money management. MM is more important than E/E because that determines whether you'll live to fight another day or not. After you blow up many accounts you'll see this lesson unfortunately
  • #44,775
  • Feb 4, 2014 7:19am Feb 4, 2014 7:19am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} aiya.. i have to comment on this, sorry. 福, pronounced fu (foo), meaning good fortune http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E7%A6%8F when 福 is turned upside down.. upside down is 倒, pronounced dao, meaning inverted. http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E5%80%92 it is homonym to the word 到, also pronounced dao, meaning arrived. http://translate.google.com/#auto/en/%E5%88%B0...
oooor.

regards
  • #44,776
  • Edited 7:45am Feb 4, 2014 7:24am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting hotaggie98
New traders often concentrate on entry and exit, but rarely people concentrating on money management. MM is more important than E/E because that determines whether you'll live to fight another day or not. After you blow up many accounts you'll see this lesson unfortunately
yes.
is time contango your performance chart.
welcome to thread.

regards

oops what you said is correct.

contango means to be profitable in days ahead.
upward sloping chart.
i just wishing you well ahead.
  • #44,777
  • Feb 4, 2014 9:51am Feb 4, 2014 9:51am
Quoting fti
{quote}most intense on (theta)time expiry. so in general expect currency upward skew as time expires.
Hi fti,

would like to enquire with you on the above quoted please. Understand that theta accelerates near expiry for an option. on the premise that the bargaining of budget needs time and thus price goes nowhere, option holders lose out on theta while option writers gain. Given that the time to default is end of month i.e. 1 month, option holders who initiated position now loses out very quickly on theta as 1 month is a short time. how does this relates to currency upward skew? Also, what is meant by currency upward skew? Is it in dollar?

Appreciate your guidance and thanks much
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,778
  • Feb 4, 2014 10:15am Feb 4, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Hi fti, would like to enquire with you on the above quoted please. Understand that theta accelerates near expiry for an option. on the premise that the bargaining of budget needs time and thus price goes nowhere, option holders lose out on theta while option writers gain. Given that the time to default is end of month i.e. 1 month, option holders who initiated position now loses out very quickly on theta as 1 month is a short time. how does this relates to currency upward skew? Also, what is meant by currency upward skew? Is it in dollar?...
theta is cheapest component of funding cost and it curve is very flat, at expiry it gyrates to zero in a flash.
in low interest rates regime is very insignificant.

mostly all currencys trade against usd base.
so currency means currency that which trading against the usd.

In this scenario upward currency skew is due to usd becoming uncertain(unstable) as it reaches the deadline of default possibility.

regards
  • #44,779
  • Feb 4, 2014 10:58am Feb 4, 2014 10:58am
Quoting fti
{quote} also about success. when one doing it successfully, one not feel any pressures. no need be right, or no 1 or gets all excited. In fact if success, would be mundane as s... If gets all hyped, one best pray one has good wing man. mostly will be needing them, when one is pushing the boundaries. When one move 1 up the ladder, is important check if you within safety net range. if hell breaks lose make sure have retreat station for regrouping with minimum pain. I get feel that you was doing quiet succesfully, then got to feeling bored. wanted...

Yes chief,

i think so...its my another learning curve right now...safety check were done...i just was ready to get my foreign capital on risk....loss is nothing big or even huge....its very manageable...asi told u all the time i just manage...but the pain is huge lol....

my another learning curve chief...

V
  • #44,780
  • Edited 12:07pm Feb 4, 2014 11:17am | Edited 12:07pm
thank you fti,,,
I am still very new in fx, and I just started again after 2 years stop
I decided to stop because all my trading failed miserably and decided to trade back after reading your post (though only up to page 35)
and to my knowledge is still a very little waaaalllllaaaaaaa,,,,,, within a week I get more than 500 pips from my 5M, I made ​​history in my life,,, 500% of my account,,,
lucky beginner i think,,,,,,,but
thank you for enlightening,,,, and will read this trhead until complete (35 to 2239????? i guess still a lot of homework)


just looking for "M"erit at the top of heaven and seek a "W"isdom at the bottom of the earth
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