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Let's Trade Options

  • #2,741
  • Feb 1, 2014 3:35pm Feb 1, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think TLT will surpass $110 and head for $115
yep I could see that, along with a contining dip in stocks, say S&P to 16xx, continuing USD strength, even stronger JPY, etc etc - all by Q1 end. We'll have some clues by the end of the coming week, I think. Watching the Fed, as usual, and developments in em and eurozone sovereigns. I like the cheap options on TLT/TBT & will be looking to put something on them soon.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,742
  • Feb 2, 2014 12:15pm Feb 2, 2014 12:15pm
CBOE Margin Manual

www.cboe.com/tradtool/marginmanual2000.pdf
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,743
  • Feb 2, 2014 1:24pm Feb 2, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting The Fool
LNKD ER out 2/6, looks like a good target for some 2/7 call sales. 10% out gets you to ~$237, 15% to ~$248. 2/7 $235c get $4.25, $240/$3.15, $245/$2.30, $250/$1.62, $255/$1.19, $260/$0.83, $265/$0.57, $270/$0.37. $275/$0.25 ...see it put on a $30 (+15%) pop long on the Aug '13 ER --- I might spread $245/$275 or $250/$275 {image}
MAY go full iron condor. Puts are cheaper than calls. 2/7 $190p/$2.44, $185/$1.61, $180/1.03, $ 175/$0.67.

Condors help you:

a) move your short strikes out a bit
b) provide some returns from the win side to help you rescue the losing side (losing side losing because you were not far enough out)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,744
  • Feb 2, 2014 2:11pm Feb 2, 2014 2:11pm
Any iron condor traders here? Something I will be putting in the play book more often. The book below I got free via Amazon Prime, will read after the Super Bowl. Go Hawks!

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...SH20_OU01_.jpg
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,745
  • Feb 3, 2014 8:56am Feb 3, 2014 8:56am
Entered a scalp some minutes ago on Citi, I still seeing down action in Financials so I have longed $46 put for Fridays expiration at 19c or $19 per contract.

Citi price is $47.46

Citigroup Inc. (C)

-NYSE

47.46 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.03(0.06%) 14:52 - Nasdaq Real Time Price


C Feb 2014 46.000 put (C140207P00046000)

-OPR

0.19 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.07(26.92%) 14:33
  • #2,746
  • Feb 3, 2014 9:29am Feb 3, 2014 9:29am
Quoting Cecil Gee
HD/ Home depot looks like its about to fall of a cliff
look at the weekly on HD, break the 50 day and closes beneath it could seal its fate for a while
  • #2,747
  • Feb 3, 2014 9:34am Feb 3, 2014 9:34am
may take a scalp position on long calls in UNG towards the end of today's session, Natural gas may resume more upward swings
  • #2,748
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:39pm Feb 3, 2014 1:39pm
Hi all,

Anyone looking at trading the jpy.usd options? Looking at a deep OTM on the call side for the 7 Feb expiry. Good volatility and although there is pullback and the carry trade is unwinding the 100 level will be tough to crack. However, I'm looking deeper than this; somewhere around 99 (0.0101) or 98.5 (0.01015) level - Any thoughts?
  • #2,749
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:40pm Feb 3, 2014 1:40pm
lots of good possibilities this week. I am watching today's dip with glee. I expect to be in several ER strangles, still trying to decide. AKAM, for sure. Will also have a condor on LNKD - may get in the put legs today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,750
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:45pm Feb 3, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting njr
Hi all, Anyone looking at trading the jpy.usd options? Looking at a deep OTM on the call side for the 7 Feb expiry. Good volatility and although there is pullback and the carry trade is unwinding the 100 level will be tough to crack. However, I'm looking deeper than this; somewhere around 99 (0.0101) or 98.5 (0.01015) level - Any thoughts?
I have found it easier to trade stock options, generally. I will trade treasurys and some commods but even there I will do so via the etf's that target those. That said, I think the stretchy end of the risk on/risk off paradigm is the short end - with JPY being risk off. In other words, I'd rather not tempt the short side if I were selling options, and think selling calls on risk-on instruments is the way to go this week. The NFP may turn that sentiment on its head.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,751
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:56pm Feb 3, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Entered a scalp some minutes ago on Citi, I still seeing down action in Financials so I have longed $46 put for Fridays expiration at 19c or $19 per contract. Citi price is $47.46 Citigroup Inc. (C) -NYSE 47.46 {image} 0.03(0.06%) 14:52 - Nasdaq Real Time Price C Feb 2014 46.000 put (C140207P00046000) -OPR 0.19 {image} 0.07(26.92%) 14:33
holding on to the above position, tripled the initial investment today
  • #2,752
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:57pm Feb 3, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
may take a scalp position on long calls in UNG towards the end of today's session, Natural gas may resume more upward swings
not taking the above position yet, will hold of until wednesday
  • #2,753
  • Feb 3, 2014 2:00pm Feb 3, 2014 2:00pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm ok, still looking for GS to go below $160 by Feb expiration, Rig to go below $40. I'm holding these positions from a few weeks ago. In the green on both but want to squeeze more. Looking for scalps now as many of the big cap stocks have had there earnings. looking to be more active with UNG in the future I like the way it moves. Also looking at long term plays on big caps when the price is cheap and hold into earnings next time round
Getting close to closing out the above positions, trades are deep in to the greens
  • #2,754
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:12pm Feb 3, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have found it easier to trade stock options, generally. I will trade treasurys and some commods but even there I will do so via the etf's that target those. That said, I think the stretchy end of the risk on/risk off paradigm is the short end - with JPY being risk off. In other words, I'd rather not tempt the short side if I were selling options, and think selling calls on risk-on instruments is the way to go this week. The NFP may turn that sentiment on its head.
Hi The Fool - Thanks for your views. I agree that this week will be risk off and the NFP on friday will be the key data point. Regarding the jpy.usd trade, I'll keep an eye on this and see how the next 24 - 72 hours progresses...

Overall the IV on various assets is looking good and there are many opportunities to choose from...
  • #2,755
  • Feb 4, 2014 4:13am Feb 4, 2014 4:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am spread on TWTR Feb 7 $75c short, Feb 22 $75c long ($1.90/$5.45) - net debit $3.55. I can talk myself into believing Twitter will blow up on ER either long or short. Not much to go on with 3 months of chart. Xmas week drop shows what can happen. With the small float and current resiliency of the sp, I'd have to bet on TWTR putting in a leg up next week, though, and I wouldn't be surprised at like 2 handles. Need to do something about my crippled spread & I believe I might just double down on otm calls and try to fund them selling put...
Will be out most of day Tue, will not be able to place trades except at around the NY open. Nothing real good I can do about the mess above, but will likely buy back 2/7 $75c for $0.40 - $0.50 profit, then get in a bullish put spread, details later.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,756
  • Feb 4, 2014 4:32am Feb 4, 2014 4:32am
Quoting The Fool
YELP earnings out 2/5 and I am in the hole on 2/22 $65 long puts. YELP is a company that doesn't make anything, sells advertising on its websites which feature gossip. So, of course the company should be worth more than the GDP of most third-world nations. I can get $0.80 for the $60 2/7 short puts, probably what I will do on Monday, will look to see if share price move down helps that prospect. {image}
Will be watching at the open on YELP. It has been held up well before earnings. If it gets a dip I may sell $65 puts - am at BE+ on previous spread moves..
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,757
  • Feb 4, 2014 4:34am Feb 4, 2014 4:34am
Stock futures all green, can look for quick retrace trades. UVXY will give back $10-$15, but would need to get in long puts in pre-market trade.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,758
  • Feb 4, 2014 2:50pm Feb 4, 2014 2:50pm
Opened a new scalp 20 mins ago on LVS. long $73.50 put for Fridays expiration at $30 per contract or 30c.
Current price on LVS is $75.09

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)

-NYSE

75.09 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.58(0.78%) 20:49 - Nasdaq Real Time Price


LVS Feb 2014 73.500 put (LVS140207P00073500)

-OPR

0.30 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.46(60.53%) 20:16
  • #2,759
  • Feb 4, 2014 2:52pm Feb 4, 2014 2:52pm
TWTR looking interesting with earnings out tomorrow after the bell. Looking at the deep OTM at the 85 or 90 strike on Feb 7 expiry. Will wait until tomorrow's US open and view price at that time
  • #2,760
  • Feb 4, 2014 3:09pm Feb 4, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting njr
TWTR looking interesting with earnings out tomorrow after the bell. Looking at the deep OTM at the 85 or 90 strike on Feb 7 expiry. Will wait until tomorrow's US open and view price at that time
You are looking at selling calls, I presume? I think there's a good possibility TWTR may put on a good show with a pop long. They are freeing up 10mio shares to be sold next week - these are shares held by insiders. (Do your own DD on this - it's just what I have read.) Wouldn't surprise me if it spikes up at earnings, holds til next week & then sells off. For that reason maybe I will think of selling 2/14 $85 calls, but I'd wait til after the move to get in.

Of course, I could be wrong and it tanks on the ER.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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