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Analysis for dummies, by dummies

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 7:15am Feb 3, 2014 5:28am | Edited 7:15am
After being a member for an year and some months, I finally decided to become an "OP".
I wanted a place where I could post away any charts and analysis I had without them ever being offtopic. Basically sharing with the community, exchanging knowledge and experience with others at some point and so on. I've been doing this gig for a little under two years now, two long years during which I have invested more than just money, but also almost all of my time and efforts.

To keep this first post brief and clear:

What is this thread about? To reiterate, this is a place where I and everybody who would like to can share analysis on whatever they trade. Successful trades and losses are also encouraged to be put up for commenting by fellow members. I will try to provide help for any sort of technical analysis questions that may arise from newer traders, often with the help of the many learning materials that I have gathered throughout my striving for success.
I look forward to this also becoming a very friendly environment where we can all get along and talk about closely related to the market and not so much related things. Any timeframe is tolerated, any system as well. Trading can be very boring, and what better way is there to keep ourselves from overtrading than to interact with fellow traders?

What are the no-no's? Basically I just want this to be a clean thread, with no bickering, no fighting between posters. Let's keep the drama to a minimum, we're all professionals here now, aren't we

I will be talking about trendlines a lot, they're my weapon of choice.
  • #2
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:34am Feb 3, 2014 5:34am
Hello WDAYS,

Good to see a place that's friendly.
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #3
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:35am Feb 3, 2014 5:35am
First.
Hey WD,
Great idea to start your own thread. Can't wait to post my first chart

Edit: Mark up beat me to first lol
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #4
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:35am Feb 3, 2014 5:35am
I watch 6 pairs.

Those 6 pairs are as follows: EU, EJ, EA, GU, GJ, GA

I do my weekly analysis once in the beginning of every week, and then I do follow-ups every day on lower Timeframes. I use a Naked daily/weekly/monthly chart with just 3 EMAs 20, 100 and 200. I use the EMAs as dynamic S/R. I will elaborate further on this later on.
  • #5
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:39am Feb 3, 2014 5:39am
Quoting WDays
I watch 6 pairs. Those 6 pairs are as follows: EU, EJ, EA, GU, GJ, GA I do my weekly analysis once in the beginning of every week, and then I do follow-ups every day on lower Timeframes. I use a Naked daily/weekly/monthly chart with just 3 EMAs 20, 100 and 200. I use the EMAs as dynamic S/R. I will elaborate further on this later on.

Wow. All those on your one screen.

I watch 8 pairs on two screens
EA,EJ,GJ,GU,GC,GA,AU,EU
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #6
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:42am Feb 3, 2014 5:42am
Quoting itsallover
First. Hey WD, Great idea to start your own thread. Can't wait to post my first chart Edit: Mark up beat me to first lol
Quoting Mark up
Hello WDAYS, Good to see a place that's friendly.
Hey guys, glad to have you on here

Let me set the tone with this first set of charts....

Okay, so the first chart up is that of the eurodollar. I've become very suspicious of any activity on this pair, because I figure it is mostly fundamental. The average daily range has become much smaller than this time last year. The pair rarely moves, but when it does it very strongly, in proportion to its usual range. I have not opened a trade on EU in a very long time now, however I keep an eye on it for the sake of keeping up.

Anyway, it seems it has broken a recent bullish trendline, probably going for a test of the 200EMA. I refer to the 200EMA as sort of this "magnet" that pulls price towards it whenever it goes a certain distance away from it. It is also the last line of defense before biases may change.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 37 KB
  • #7
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:42am Feb 3, 2014 5:42am
Quoting itsallover
{quote} Wow. All those on your one screen. I watch 8 pairs on two screens EA,EJ,GJ,GU,GC,GA,AU,EU
Not at the same time, silly
  • #8
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:47am Feb 3, 2014 5:47am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Not at the same time, silly

lol... you'd prolly only manage to fit one candle per chart
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #9
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:49am Feb 3, 2014 5:49am
Quoting WDays
{quote} {quote} Hey guys, glad to have you on here Let me set the tone with this first set of charts.... Okay, so the first chart up is that of the eurodollar. I've become very suspicious of any activity on this pair, because I figure it is mostly fundamental. The average daily range has become much smaller than this time last year. The pair rarely moves, but when it does it very strongly, in proportion to its usual range. I have not opened a trade on EU in a very long time now, however I keep an eye on it for the sake of keeping up. Anyway,...

I don't like EU either. However I'm expecting a retrace today ... I'll post a chart if I take a trade
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #10
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:57am Feb 3, 2014 5:57am
There's high impact news on USD at 15.00 hrs so we can chill til then on EU
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #11
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:00am Feb 3, 2014 6:00am
I forgot to mention that I'm a real fan of trendlines. I don't pay nearly as much attention to horizontal support/resistance levels than I do to trendlines. They're my guide... I also don't look at price action per se as much as I watch out for price structure. PA is very subjective, subject to momentum/market volatility. Whereas PS not so much.

Moving on with EJ, we'll then have a look at GU and that will be that from me for now.

EJ, now I could attribute the surge up (which as you can see is much more steep than the previous "steady" rise) to the monetary easing, but I like to keep a distance from fundamentals when I do my analysis, because often times markets fade the news. I do not have the ressources needed to base my trading decisions on fundamental reasons. I just trade what I see, as soon as I see confirmation. From a technical standpoint, I can see the EJ retracing back to the 100EMA for fourth time. I suppose this week will let us know if we can expect a further dip (perhaps to the 200 day moving average?) or if price may be standing back up. Lower timeframes threw me off during last night's asian opening, as the hourly and M15 tf were showing divergences and a decent PA and PS (with a break of a lesser bear trendline to the upside). However that backfired as price seemed to be consolidating until recently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJJ.png Size: 43 KB
  • #12
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:05am Feb 3, 2014 6:05am
Quoting itsallover
{quote} lol... you'd prolly only manage to fit one candle per chart
At best, lol. Trying to keep it minimalistic has got me using a 15' laptop screen, haha.

Quoting itsallover
{quote} I don't like EU either. However I'm expecting a retrace today ... I'll post a chart if I take a trade
I know, right, I hate its guts. I wouldn't trade it intraday, no way no how. Swing at best... If not even position, lol.
  • #13
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:06am Feb 3, 2014 6:06am
Quoting WDays
{quote} {quote} Hey guys, glad to have you on here Let me set the tone with this first set of charts.... Okay, so the first chart up is that of the eurodollar. I've become very suspicious of any activity on this pair, because I figure it is mostly fundamental. The average daily range has become much smaller than this time last year. The pair rarely moves, but when it does it very strongly, in proportion to its usual range. I have not opened a trade on EU in a very long time now, however I keep an eye on it for the sake of keeping up. Anyway,...
This is interesting, its a weekly chart of EU with the 200 EMA. Showing price moving back to the center line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU weekly 200 ema..PNG Size: 210 KB
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #14
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:16am Feb 3, 2014 6:16am
Quoting Mark up
{quote} This is interesting, its a weekly chart of EU with the 200 EMA. Showing price moving back to the center line {image}
Which would explain the move down. My beginning of the year bias was for EU to head lower, because of a huge confluence of fibo retracement and expansion levels from different swings. Not to mention the wedge/channel that you have drawn on there. But sadly as you can see if you use bare japanese candlesticks, it has been a completely choppy mess on there. It could have been scalped at best...
  • #15
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:27am Feb 3, 2014 6:27am
Now for GU, it has got me a little puzzled. On one hand (and I had to jump to weekly to see this), there's bullish weakness presenting itself, the last couple of weeks have been closing with huge upper wicks, which usually indicates bears are slowly taking control. Daily has been engulfed twice to the downside when an attempt to go higher was seen. last week closed as an inside bar, which was broken to the downside this week. We also see a minor daily trendline being broken as we speak, but it's still too early to tell, daily can just as well jump back up above it thus confirming the validity of this trendline (remember, a trendline is 2 swings linked together by a straight line and confirmed by a third swing that tests it).

On the other hand we've got this huuuge monthly resistance turned support that is keep price above water... Hard to say what we can expect...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 31 KB
  • #16
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:31am Feb 3, 2014 6:31am
That's it from me for now, I hope this thread catches on. I'll be back to post more charts soon. Let me just add that I am in no way claiming to be dead-on right about anything I have posted so far. This is nothing but my view of the 3 majors I talked about and the market. The idea is to maybe eventually create a debate, with different standpoints on the short and longterm market bias.

Readers you are not only welcomed but encouraged to share your thoughts on the matter. Thank you for your time.
  • #17
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:35am Feb 3, 2014 6:35am
P.S: here is the divergence I was talking about earlier, in my post about EJ:

let me also add one thing about trendlines: the steeper it is, the less reliable it becomes. Case in point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJH1.png Size: 52 KB
  • #18
  • Edited 7:26am Feb 3, 2014 6:46am | Edited 7:26am
A different perspective on GU.
Daily chart superimposed over the monthly candles making a run for the EMA 69.

I don't normally draw trendlines but can see where one may have been broken

Edit: Sorry thats the EMA 89
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 28 KB
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #19
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:50am Feb 3, 2014 6:50am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...china-pmi.html

Here's some fundamentals, for those of you who likey.

(not sure what FF.com's policy is regarding links from bloomberg, but I doubt there's any problem?)
  • #20
  • Feb 3, 2014 7:00am Feb 3, 2014 7:00am
Quoting itsallover
A different perspective on GU. Daily chart superimposed over the monthly candles making a run for the EMA 69. I don't normally draw trendlines but can see where one may have been broken {image}
Also another tool I like. Generally if a pair is traded intradaywise above a weekly high, I like to look for long setups moreso than shorts and vice versa if it's below the weekly low. This applies to monthly too. A trend is nothing more than a succession of higher highs and lows or lower highs and lows, so this is an easy way to keep track of the bigger picture and to avoid screwing up. When price is within a weekly high and low, then we're most likely looking at a weekly inside bar and can afford to take more trades in both long and short directions with less risk, because price is essentially ranging.
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