I agree with hollowhead and am beginning to trade from his perspective. However, old habits are hard to break and I still find myself observing support/resistance and trend lines.
Professional Trading Strategy - student selection
- #82
- Jan 31, 2014 5:14am Jan 31, 2014 5:14am
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Putting it all together... | 1,185 Posts
{quote} ONLY common use indicators confuse traders, candlestick patterns, etc ... everything works to some extent, until it failsMost of you use S/R, Fibonacci, RSI, Stochastics, etc which at some point fail. Have you ever seen a professional trader screen? Among stochastics and other indicators there is always something else which probably passed unobserved by most of you who have seen such a screen.
- #84
- Jan 31, 2014 6:04am Jan 31, 2014 6:04am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: step into liquid | 3,460 Posts
{quote} ONLY common use indicators confuse traders, candlestick patterns, etc ... everything works to some extent, until it fails
I subscribe
i am new to forex, only trading demo but very devoted. So my opinion is that there is surely something to the S&R, seen a lot of threads all based on zones, levels, support demand, and breakout they all talk about the same thing but in a very different ways. I take it that a good trader doesnīt trade the current price but waits for a oppurtunity. For me the levels represent pending orders that are determined to change the current trend either for a small retraction of for a full trend change.
There was a discussion about timeframes and candles, iīve seen many forex books talk about patterns hammer, spinning tops..., i really donīt believe in them, cause if you would take the same price action over a day based on H1 but one graph would take new candle at 15:00 16:00.. and the other graph would take the same information 15:30 16:30 , you would get two graphs which represent the same thing but as candles give very different signals.
I like to divide the market according to the pairs so eurusd 24 % of volume usdjpy 18% and so on, based on this a pair like gbpjpy, cannot be reflection of technical analysis on the given pair, but only a recalculation from different pairs. so for example GBPJPY graph is the difference between GBPUSD and USDJPY, as gbpusd and usdjpy are two of three major pairs GBPJPY is naturally only a reflection and not its own market, so trading GBPJPY based on high lows would give mixed and bad signals, cause its just the reflection from other major pairs.
You asked to put a little example of how we think, i could go on and on but donīt want to write a thesis.
I also belive that every forex strategy needs also a good mind, that means not the strategies are important but the strategy with its trader is what makes profit. Because very good strategies can be often misunderstood and timing is the key.
David
i am new to forex, only trading demo but very devoted. So my opinion is that there is surely something to the S&R, seen a lot of threads all based on zones, levels, support demand, and breakout they all talk about the same thing but in a very different ways. I take it that a good trader doesnīt trade the current price but waits for a oppurtunity. For me the levels represent pending orders that are determined to change the current trend either for a small retraction of for a full trend change.
There was a discussion about timeframes and candles, iīve seen many forex books talk about patterns hammer, spinning tops..., i really donīt believe in them, cause if you would take the same price action over a day based on H1 but one graph would take new candle at 15:00 16:00.. and the other graph would take the same information 15:30 16:30 , you would get two graphs which represent the same thing but as candles give very different signals.
I like to divide the market according to the pairs so eurusd 24 % of volume usdjpy 18% and so on, based on this a pair like gbpjpy, cannot be reflection of technical analysis on the given pair, but only a recalculation from different pairs. so for example GBPJPY graph is the difference between GBPUSD and USDJPY, as gbpusd and usdjpy are two of three major pairs GBPJPY is naturally only a reflection and not its own market, so trading GBPJPY based on high lows would give mixed and bad signals, cause its just the reflection from other major pairs.
You asked to put a little example of how we think, i could go on and on but donīt want to write a thesis.
I also belive that every forex strategy needs also a good mind, that means not the strategies are important but the strategy with its trader is what makes profit. Because very good strategies can be often misunderstood and timing is the key.
David
- #98
- Feb 1, 2014 12:58am Feb 1, 2014 12:58am
Hi Exchange101
Here is my trade analysis/logic on your example. My entry points are more conservative than yours as I wait for close below level. I like it best when price retraces into zone and is rejected. It shows me that the big players are protecting their new positions. My initial stop is placed beyond latest swing. I use the high for the 100% fib level and place the 32% fib on my enter level and project forward my fib levels with extensions(s). I would close out position if price retraces above 2 fib levels. Price will retrace but if the move is on it generally will not retrace a full 2 levels.
I will make a new post on my take of money flow, albeit that on spot forex for me it is more subjective and I try to interpret from the chart what may be going on behind the scenes.
Regards
Koh 
Here is my trade analysis/logic on your example. My entry points are more conservative than yours as I wait for close below level. I like it best when price retraces into zone and is rejected. It shows me that the big players are protecting their new positions. My initial stop is placed beyond latest swing. I use the high for the 100% fib level and place the 32% fib on my enter level and project forward my fib levels with extensions(s). I would close out position if price retraces above 2 fib levels. Price will retrace but if the move is on it generally will not retrace a full 2 levels.
I will make a new post on my take of money flow, albeit that on spot forex for me it is more subjective and I try to interpret from the chart what may be going on behind the scenes.
Regards
Koh
